Tag Archives: Student Loans

Mar 9 2018

The Analysts Are Turning Back to Bearish Again


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones

Re-Posted Mar 9, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

CNN Money is reporting the headline “A top JPMorgan Chase executive is warning that stocks could fall as much as 40% in the next few years.” CNN reports that Daniel Pinto, JPMorgan’s co-president, said on Bloomberg Television he believed that market gains should continue for the next year or two. However, he added that investors were nervous could result in a “deep correction” of between 20% and 40%, “depending upon the market values at the time the downturn starts.”

Indeed, this was the pause we were looking for from January. We did not see a collapse as in terms of 1987. Instead, this is simply the transition period where the marketplace must come to grips with a Sovereign Debt Crisis and that means rising interest rates will devastate the bond bubble. So exactly how does that equate to a 40% decline in equities?

What is clear is that the initial stages of this consolidation period involved the marketplace coming to grips with the shift from PUBLIC to the PRIVATE rationale. In other words, inflation, rising interest rates, the rapid rise in interest rates, explosion in public debt, and the inability of governments to fund their never-ending deficit spending at the federal, state, and local levels. Then as the economy begins to worsen, this will also historically lead to trade wars.

This is good news. We need the majority of analysts to turn bearish in order to restore the upward bias we have enjoyed for the past 8 years. We can see that our Energy Models are not in a position for a major high. They have been rising, not declining as new highs were made. This strongly suggests we will still see higher highs in the years ahead. The more analysts we get back to bearish, the strong the breakout to the upside later on.

Mar 5 2018

WALKING INTO MORDOR


Oikophobia — fear and hatred of one’s own culture and people. It has brought down civilizations since there have been civilizations. And now we’re infected, too.

Mar 3 2018

Let’s Try Bank Shaming


An article in the NYT suggests that banks should not allow their credit cards to be used to purchase weapons. Unfortunately, it probably wouldn’t work because it’s doesn’t address the root problem: the existence of evil people.

Mar 2 2018

Canada Will be the Most Impact by a Steel Tariff


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada

Re-Posted Mar 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Canada is the largest exporter of steel to the United States. The decline in the Canadian dollar has helped this trend in particular. Trump is clueless when it comes to the impact of currency on foreign trade. If he wants to do tariffs, they MUST be indexed to the currency. Failure to do that will cause serious consequences as the dollar rises on the world financial markets in the years ahead. He will create a trade war globally and politicians on both sides remain ignorant of foreign exchange and its impact upon trade numbers.

I have stated many times that the entire system of trade is in a state of confusion. Following Bretton Woods, currencies were fixed to the dollar which in turn was fixed to $35 per troy ounce of gold. Therefore, the accounting system ONLY measured the amount of currencies moving back and forth. It was assumed that you imported more goods if the amount of outflow of dollars increased. Consequently, the way we measure trade today has NOTHING to do with the actual amount of product moving internationally. If you spent more dollars but the dollar decline in value by 20%, then even an increase in imports measured in dollars at 20% was no change in the actual product