QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have been calling for the dollar to decline against the Euro and it should test the 125 level. Do you see the dollar continuing to decline which then breaks the back of Europe with deflation and then everything flips?

WK

ANSWER: Last year was an outside reversal to the upside meaning it made a new low since 2008 reaching 10341 and then closed above the 2016 high. That confirmed we should see a lower dollar in 2018 and our target in the 125 level has been slow in coming. There is no reversal of fortune without a closing above 140. Our minimum target was 12570 with the next forming at 12890. Thereafter, we reach the major resistance in the 135-140 zone. The technical resistance begins just shy of 124.

The Euro is rallying because the ECB is seen to be abandoning its QE program which has failed. The rush to the Euro is the assumption that with higher rates, at last money will come home. We still have a minefield of political issues. Creditors are dissatisfied with the lack of austerity in Greece as well as Italy. Our critical turning point remains March 2018.

The crisis yet to unfold is will there be buyers of European debt to take up what the ECB has been buying? This is part of our forecast with rising rates and the more they rise the worse the budget will get. There is just no way out of this crisis without serious reform. So people rushing into the Euro thinking this is a turn-around long-term for the dollar will be shown that the old saying fools rush in where wise men never go will be carved in stone.

So for now, we still await the test of 125-128.

TIME is more than just money; it’s absolutely everything and then some! Personal opinion just utterly fails because we are all human. Markets routinely do what the majority never expects. That is their function. They mutate like a virus always changing its genetic code to defeat medicine, or in this case, traders. Back on November 30th, 2017, I explained on the private blog: “We must respect that exceeding the November high now in December on a sustained basis, points to a January high. If we pull back, then January will be a low and then watch out for a sharp rally into March.”

TIME is the very fabric of the universe and probably the most misunderstood element of all. In physics, the relativity of simultaneity is the concept that baffles many. The question becomes, do two distant events actually take place simultaneously? Therefore, the question whether two spatially separated events occur at the same TIME is recognized to be far from absolute. It is “relative” depending on the observer’s reference frame. This becomes incredibly important in terms of forecasting the world markets.

To grasp what our model is really doing one must look at TIME and EVENTS more in the perspective of turning points – not specific events. Once you understand we are forecasting turning points on the TIME horizon, not specific events, you will begin to make a leap forward into a new world of understanding TIME.

Specific events on the horizon become easy for forecast based upon the trend in motion relative to TIME. When trends reach that events horizon in time, then a specific high or low is easily ascertained. Right now, we are in the throes of a major breakout and a characteristic of Vertical Markets has been what we call the Cycle Inversion process. Normally, turning points unfold in opposite pairs. So a November high would traditionally be followed by a January low. Merely exceeding the November high on a closing basis during December identified the continued rally into the next target being January 2018 warning we were (1) dealing with a Cycle Inversion, and (2) a Vertical Market that is going to be very difficult to trade for most people.

It is paramount that we understand how Vertical Markets function.

COUNTERPARTY RISK

QUESTION:  In regard to counterparty risk when purchasing exchange traded funds or notes: With European banks being under capitalised due to the excessive risk undertaken due to the EU regulations regarding bailouts, how can we measure the threat of each counterparty which has backed each ETF. Would it be safer to consider only ETFs with US counterparties, or is just another risk we have to take on board. Do we avoid these types of instruments in favour of choice companies.

ANSWER: If you wish to use ETF’s, as they are extremely cheap and liquid, the large US names such as Vanguard, State Street etc. are available. We often write to hold the physical share certificate as the same as holding tangible assets but realize it is very difficult to take delivery.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I find it interesting how you have pointed out that when it comes to public debt, the USA is actually far better than Europe or many in Asia. You also forecast that debt would begin to rise sharply from mid-2017 going into 2021. Do you have any figures to support that forecast?

NW

ANSWER: Yes of course!. The volume of global debt is rising significantly. According to the Institute of International Finance, total liabilities in the third quarter of 2017 surpassed $230 trillion. This is an increase of 16 trillion compared to the end of 2016. As the interest rates continue to rise, the debt servicing costs are simply going to explode. As a whole, Europe is over 100% of debt to GDP on average compared to the USA at about 73%. Government debt has exceeded $60 trillion.

This entire system is coming undone. The debt servicing is exploding as rates begin to rise. The Sovereign Debt Crisis is very much alive and wel

I have previously reported that about 50% of German municipalities are insolvent. This is a global trend and we are witnessing it in the United States as well. The North Rhine-Westphalian Association of Cities has called for help from the future German federal government as the building crisis among financially weak municipalities continue to escalate. This includes the fourth largest by area in Germany with the capital situated in Düsseldorf. The main cities include Cologne, Düsseldorf, Dortmund, and Essen. They are pleading for a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD to save the municipal governments. With the end of the historic low-interest phase, interest rates are poised to rise dramatically in Europe and they begin to see that the appetite for new debt from the government is sharply declining.

Politicians have been hiding this municipal crisis in Germany until after the elections when it was assumed Merkel would win as always. Now the cat is coming out of the bag and we will begin to see the real impact of nearly 10-years of subsidizing governments by the ECB rather than actually stimulating the economy that never bounced. This is a fundamental background issue behind the rise in interest rates between 2018 and 2021.