Tag Archives: Waterfall event

Apr 10 2024

US Failing to Add 1 Million Manufacturing Jobs


Posted originally on Apr 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

manufacturing man 1

I have already criticized the March jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. The mainstream media is cheering the 303,000 position boost as proof that the American economy is on the right path. I noted in an earlier blog post that the number of part-time workers rose by 691,000 while the number of full-time workers decreased by 6,000. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics admitted that the number of Americans holding multiple jobs increased by 217,000 or 5.2%, as Americans cannot afford the current cost of living even with wages rising 4.1% YoY.

One additional aspect—not a single manufacturing job was added to the US economy in March. The BLS claims that manufacturing jobs held steady at 12,956,000 from February, although 10,000 manufacturing positions were cut in January.

InflationReductionAct.meme_

The Inflation Reduction Act promised to fund the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that was intended to expand American manufacturing. As Yellen and others have openly stated, the Inflation Reduction Act, America’s most expensive spending package, was intended to promote the climate change agenda.

Clean energy manufacturing is not profitable and, therefore, not expanding. “According to third-party estimates, the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate and clean energy tax incentives have the potential to drive investment that will support more than 1 million jobs in energy and related manufacturing sectors over the coming decade,” the US Department of Treasury stated in October 2023.

“To receive increased credit and deduction amounts under the Inflation Reduction Act, taxpayers must:

  • Pay workers the local prevailing wage, defined in accordance with Department of Labor standards, for work on facility construction, as well as for alterations and repairs in a five-to-twelve-year period, depending on the credit, after a facility is placed in service.
  • Hire a sufficient proportion of workers from registered apprenticeship programs, including hiring these qualified apprentices for at least 10% of the labor hours spent on facility construction, alteration, or repair work (rising to 12.5% for facilities where construction begins in 2023 and 15% in 2024 and later years)

The prevailing wage and apprenticeship provisions apply to:

  • the Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit (30C)
  • the Production Tax Credit (45, 45Y)
  • the Credit for Carbon Oxide Sequestration (45Q)
  • the Credit for Production of Clean Hydrogen (45V)
  • the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z)
  • the Investment Tax Credit (48, 48E)
  • the Advanced Energy Project Credit (48C)
  • the Energy Efficient Commercial Buildings Deduction (179D)

In addition, the prevailing wage provision will apply to:

  • the New Energy Efficient Home Credit (45L)
  • the Zero-Emission Nuclear Power Production Credit (45U)”

The private sector does not wish to invest in alternative or renewable energy projects. The tax credits are not enough of an incentive. The US Department of the Treasury mistakenly believed that the act would provide “taxpayers with a strong incentive to meet high labor standards as they build projects” and “expand well-paying union jobs and support proven pathways into the industry that allow workers to earn while they learn.”

Manufacturing is in fact not expanding. The regulations in place have made it difficult for existing factories to expand or bring on more workers.

Apr 4 2024

Can Socrates Predict the Lottery?


Posted Apr 4, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

lotto

Can Socrates predict the lottery? We ran tests on that probably 30 years ago, and the results were interesting. No matter what it is, there is always a cycle. You cannot predict the lottery number as a whole, for the possible variables are tremendous.

In the past few years, we have seen continual advertisements for record-breaking jackpots, but this is not some mere game that you can strategically win. You must realize you are betting against the government, and the house never loses.

Desperate for funds, the government has seemingly been promising larger jackpot prizes. Now, they claim that 65% of their earnings will go to the person with the winning ticket. The federal government takes a mandatory cut of all jackpot winnings and pushes all winners into the top tax bracket. State governments also demand a cut of jackpot winnings. There is a fee for public beneficiaries, retailer commissions, and administration costs as well.

You have a 1 in 292.2 million chance of winning the Powerball lottery and a 1 in 302.6 million chance of hitting the Mega Millions lottery. However, you’re more likely to be struck by lightning (1 in 15,000), attacked by a shark (1 in 3.75 million), or die from a bee sting (1 in 55,764), to name a few.

In addition to collecting taxes on winnings, the government receives tons of funding from ticket purchases. New York, the most popular state for lotto, earned over $10.545 billion from lottery revenue in FY23, allocating $3.7 to the Lottery Aid Education fund. This is a stark jump from FY21 when the state earned $8.5 billion on lottery revenue.

The likelihood that you, as an individual, will win is extremely rare. The likelihood that the government will win is absolutely guaranteed, and they earn more for extended contests and larger jackpots.

What we did discover was partial success on individual numbers—123456. For example, partial success is running an individual cycle on each digit. Trying to run a cycle on the number as a whole was pointless.

Apr 1 2024

A Blast from the Past


Posted originally on Apr 1, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

1990 Cover PEI_Foreign_Exchange_The_Long_Term_1990

PEI1990 Capital Flows

COMMENT: Marty, I was cleaning out my office. I get around to once every 31.4 years, and I found your report that was controversial back in 1990 when you were at war against the fundamentalists who were always getting it wrong, as they still do today. I scanned it in and thought you should post this for the newcomers. You invented capital flow analysis, and you may not qualify for a Nobel Peace Prize since you advocate for peace rather than war, but you are in a category all by yourself. Being a trader rather than an academic who was in the trenches rather than in an ivory tower. People need to know that.

See you in London

SK

Smith Invisible Hand

REPLY: Very interesting. Yes, they always use war to cover up something else. Hitler and Napoleon were trying to resurrect the old Roman Empire over all of Europe. The days of empire building inspired by the Physiocrats that the wealth of a nation was agriculture, so you conquered nation after nation are long gone. Adam Smith wrote his Wealth of Nations to challenge the French Physiocrats and their view that only agriculture was wealth. He argued that it was the total productivity of a nation that constituted its wealth.

Marx v Smith

Then along came Marx, and the wealth became labor, and he tore apart the economy out of jealousy. He attributed nothing to human imagination, the source of all economic advancement. Communism proved that the government was incompetent in regulating or developing the economy.

Smith highest impertinance

Smith was NOT an academic. He went out to observe how everything truly functioned. The socialists hate Smith because they follow Marx and want to force the economy to function the way they think it should. They reject any concept of a business cycle and come up with stupid theories like Random Walks, for that means that they can then manipulate society because it is all just random.

AI Computing

They are now all in a tissy. The government wants to REGULATE AI, and Biden put our illustrious VP in charge. There is a real threat that they will regulate what they do not understand and, in the process, destroy the industry, as they did with investment advice and force people offshore, giving birth to the Hedge Fund Industry.

Mar 11 2024

The Collapse of a Nation Takes 13 years


Posted originally on Mar 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Legal Persecution

In law, it has been a maxim that bad facts make bad law. Every lawyer knows that. That is why the government will seek the worst case to expand the law and apply it to others. This legal maxim is certainly not new. All of those who go to law school are never taught that this maxim was, according to my research, first stated by Julius Caesar in 63BC during the trial of the Cataline Conspiracy, which was the alleged scheme to over through the government no so different from the allegations against Trump in the January 6th event they have called an “INSURRECTION” to desperately try to apply the 14th Amendment that was written concerning the American Civil War.

In 63 BC, Julius Caesar delivered a speech to the Roman Senate where they had to protect him from corrupt senators like Cicero. This alleged conspiracy was led by the patrician Catiline, whom Cicero set out to prosecute because he was of the opposition. The allegation was that he intended to overthrow the Roman government. Cicero did his best to deny Catline every right a Roman would have in a legal constitutional sense. Cicero whipped up the mob, demanding their execution against the law. When the Roman Senate convened, Cicero stood up and asked what should be done to them, and his co-conspirators shouted out death.

The historian Sallust recorded the incident and tells us that Gaius Julius Caesar stood up and explained that Roman law forbids the execution of Roman citizens even for heinous crimes. He argued that executing the conspirators would thus require the creation of a radical and dangerous precedent in and of itself that would really overthrow the legal foundation of the government. Caesar argued:

“Whatever befalls these prisoners will be well deserved; but you, Fathers of the Senate, are called upon to consider how your action will affect other criminals. All bad precedents have originated in cases which were good; but when the control of the government falls into the hands of men who are incompetent or bad, your new precedent is transferred from those who well deserve and merit such punishment to the undeserving and blameless.”

I have explained that we have entered very dangerous times. Most historians have concluded that the entire conspiracy was invented by Cicero for his own political advantage. The fact did not add up to any true plot that would have even been remotely successful. They were summarily executed after a fierce senate debate without any constitutional rights on December 5th merely on the fake evidence of Cicero.

Mill John Stuart Legal Persecution

What they have unleashed against Trump is EXTREMELY dangerous. The allegations and summary execution of the fake Cataline Conspiracy by Cicero was a turning point that ultimately led to the Civil War and the collapse of the Roman Republic 13 years later. When we reach 2032, it will be also about 13 years from the entire conspiracy that began in 2019 to overthrow the United States as we have known it.

These prosecutions of Trump have done the same damage as the Catline Conspiracy – bad facts make bad precedent. They subjected Trump to two impeachments, and naturally that only provides an incentive to the Republicans to do the same to Biden. We now have confirmation that Fani Willis met with Kamala Harris BEFORE Trump was indicted. In New York, the courts are so corrupt that they are desperately trying to use legal persecution to bankrupt Trump. Even a $91 million award to this politically motivated E Jean Carroll or anyone else with such an absurd judgment would be dismissed by a real judge. There is no relation to any economic loss; she would never have earned that kind of money in her entire lifetime.

New York City should be kicked out of the United States because, like California, it opposes Due Process and everything that the Founding Fathers ever intended. The Rule of Law has collapsed, and with it, our nation, just as the Catline Conspiracy tore the soul out of the rights of Roman citizens. This was just one reason why Caesar crossed the Rubicon. It was the Senate that fled because the people never saw them as worthwhile—just corrupt political to rig the game.

History Repeats because Human Nature Never Changes

Mar 11 2024

A Look Back At Socrates’ Forecasts from January 2020


Posted originally on Mar 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

2020 MA on Bloomberg

My January 2020 interview with Andrew McCreath from BNN Bloomberg came up in recent conversation, and I was asked how I knew then that we’d be where we were at now. My answer is the same — I just follow the models. Some unfamiliar with my work merely looked at the headline “DOW 40,000” and dismissed my forecast as if it were my personal opinion. The Dow was 29240 on the day of the interview and while many feared a correction was coming I explained any dip was likely short-term in nature that that it would need to drop below 19000 to be truly considered a bear market and – BUT that fell on deaf ears. Even with the notable COVID dip that soon followed this interview, the market bounced right back to new highs thereafter and the models stayed on track over the long term. We experienced one of the most HATED bull markets in history. Despite all of the turmoil over the years, The Dow consistently went up for over a decade but all the talking heads insisted it would go down.

Now, those same analysts are mad that they missed the entire bull market. The short-term forecast called for a dip in 2020 and a chance to get in on the action (and COVID provided that dip in spades), but I explained that there would not be a change in the long-term trend as my computer indicated we would enter a private wave that would peak in 2024 and go off into a half-8.6-year cycle into 2028. This was all indicated by the computer system as no individual could have foreseen the events that have unfolded over the past four years.

All of the models were heating up for 2024. This is why we focus primarily on the long-term, and closely monitor capital concentration – follow the money. There was trouble in Europe and Asia, so the capital needed to flee, and that safe haven happened to be the US. It is America’s final years as the leading financial capital of the world as historically it always changes. America dethroned Britain after World War II and China is on it’s way to dethrone America after 2032.

I also pointed out that inflation would be the focal point for 2024, leading to interest rates changing and becoming a key factor for central banks globally. Volatility paired with the private wave, where capital must escape the public sector, would also lead to an uptick in the commodity cycle.

The business cycle cannot be manipulated, but it can be analyzed. However, that’s not how most market analysts work.  Long-term, macro  requires looking at every market throughout the globe, studying past behavior through historical patterns in price and time. The models do a tremendous job doing this.

Now, everyone is praising the rising Dow that will touch the 40,000 level. Of course, it is easier to say that now that we are almost there. Again, few believed me back in 2020, but here we are. Governments throughout the world are still in trouble and the money remaining on the grid is fleeing into the US. This is another reason why I watch the Dow a bit more closely than the S&P 500, as it provides a more accurate indicator of the big foreign money piling in from throughout the world.

For those who wrote in asking if I still stand by my claims – yes, the computer is still indicating that we are looking at a Dow that could rise to 65,000 by 2032, when we are likely to  see a change in not just the markets but governments worldwide. I wish I could tell you something different.

Mar 9 2024

The Coming New Monetary System


Posted originally on Mar 8, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

QUESTION: Hello Martin, been reading your passages for a few months now. I had a question for you.

What currency do you think BRICS will use to settle trades in the future and if that he bitcoin could be a viable option? Since you don’t see the USD being the world currency by 2035.

Thanks for the wisdom.

ANSWER: The only benefit of Bitcoin is that it is neutral. But it is insufficient for world commerce because it cannot be used for lending or credit, or you end up in the same situation where it is just leveraged – the very complaints about fractional banking. You deposit $100 in a bank, and they lend out $92, and then two accounts show the same cash. The money supply can be multiplied many times through credit. The nonsense that Bitcoin would replace the dollar as the reserve currency only shows that those people do not understand the world financial system. To accomplish that, you will destroy everything – mortgages can no longer be made, and the entire world is plunged into a truly monumental depression, sending us back to the Dark Ages.

The primary argument against the dollar is that the Neocons have turned it into a political weapon by sanctioning Russia and removing it from SWIFT. That woke up many countries, who then realized that the dollar had become a weapon and no longer an impartial currency in world commerce.

The de-dollarization is NOT economic-based but POLITICAL. Wake up! This is not the standard fiat money nonsense. This is about political power to force countries to do the bidding of American Neocons or else!

Private Assets Government Assets

The more practical neutral element would be gold. But there cannot be a “GOLD STANDARD” whereby you fix the price. With time, such a system will collapse, as did Bretton Woods. A monetary system MUST float, as does the economy and everything else. During a depression or recession, people sell assets and run to cash. In inflationary booms, you buy assets and get rid of the cash. LOOK – I am NOT an academic! I advise on trillions of dollars and have watched how capital responds for about 50 years. It is always self-interest – not theories of equality.

Gold 400 oz Bars

400 oz Central Bank Gold Reserves

I have been called in by central banks worldwide BECAUSE we have been the largest institutional adviser since we have focused on capital flows and currency markets. I can tell you that central banks are NOT buying gold because they think it will go up. That has absolutely NOTHING to do with such decisions. They are buying gold because it is NEUTRAL, and you can no longer trust the dollar, British pound, or the Euro, no less the Yen, etc. All Western currencies are now subject to political intervention as we enter the mere risk of war and Neocon intervention.

Florence

The only way to create a neutral, NON-POLITICAL world currency would be one where international transactions are carried out in gold – BUT on a FLOATING RATE – not fixed. During the 14th century, even Florence had a two-tier system where gold was used for international transactions and silver for domestic transactions. The more practical monetary system would be for each country to maintain its own currency for domestic use, and the international settlements would be in NON-POLITICAL gold.

This is the problem with the Euro. They eliminated the currencies to end the fluctuations between the member states. Still, the refusal to consolidate the debts meant that the volatility that once existed in the currencies was merely shifted to the bond market where each member’s debt trades according to their credit rating, as is the case among the 50 states in the USA.

Mar 9 2024

Free Home Loans for Illegal Migrants in California


Posted originally on Mar 8, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Leaving California

Liberal California lawmakers are proposing new legislation that would grant illegal migrants zero-down, zero payment home loans. Assemblyman Joaquin Arambula, D-Fresno, who penned the bill, states, “The social and economic benefits of homeownership should be available to everyone.” This completely insolent maneuver is a slap in the face to all taxpaying citizens who can barely afford homes of their own.

The program would expand the California Dream for All Shared Appreciation Loans that began in 2023 with a $300 million budget intended to house 2,300 applicants. This fund failed in 11 days as the people who pass these laws have absolutely no concept of basic finance. This time around, they’re ensuring that only people who do not work full-time will be qualified as the new qualifications are that someone must earn under 120% of the median county income, and be the first GENERATION in their family to own a home on US soil.

The changes to the failed legislation is as follows:

LEGISLATIVE COUNSEL’S DIGEST

AB 1840, as amended, Arambula. California Dream for All Program: first-time homebuyers. eligibility.

Existing law establishes the California Housing Finance Agency in the Department of Housing and Community Development, and authorizes the agency to, among other things, make loans to finance affordable housing, including residential structures, housing developments, multifamily rental housing, special needs housing, and other forms of housing, as specified. Existing law establishes the California Dream for All Program to provide shared appreciation loans to qualified first-time homebuyers, as specified. Existing law establishes the California Dream for All Fund, which is continuously appropriated for expenditure pursuant to the program and defraying the administrative costs for the agency. Existing law defines “first-time homebuyer” for these purposes. Existing law authorizes moneys deposited into the fund to include, among other moneys, appropriations from the Legislature from the General Fund or other state fund.

This bill would specify that the definition of “first-time homebuyer” includes, but is not limited to, undocumented persons. an applicant under the program shall not be disqualified solely based on the applicant’s immigration status. By expanding the persons eligible to receive moneys from a continuously appropriated fund, this bill would make an appropriation. The bill would recast the fund so that appropriations from the Legislature from the General Fund or other state fund are deposited into the California Dream for All Subaccount, which the bill would create and make available upon appropriation by the Legislature for specified purposes.

In fact, this is not a “loan,” but another taxpayer-subsidized program, as qualified applicants will receive the funds to put 20% down on a home without making a payment on the loan or to the CHFA. The funds will only need to be repaid if the borrower sells or refinances the home, but the property may be held for an indefinite amount of time.

California has the largest homeless population in the nation who are discarded members of society, even the veterans who served our nation. The average price of a home in California is about $750,709 based on Zillow’s estimates, marking a 4.4% YoY increase, which makes a typical 20% downpayment around $150,141.80. Due to high prices, California boasts the second largest renter-occupied market in the nation behind New York, with 49.7% of the population opting to rent largely out of necessity.

This should receive bipartisan backlash and open the eyes of even the most liberal citizens. The government is using the resources it collects from you via taxation to push a political agenda through the use of illegal unvetted migrants who are toppling state budgets and destroying America from within.

Mar 7 2024

Scared of the National Debt? You Should Be.


Posted originally on Mar 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

NationalDebtNYCVBillboard

A new billboard launched in New York City’s Times Square is sounding the alarm on America’s growing national debt crisis. “Scared of the national debt? You should be.” US national debt spiked past $34 trillion at the top of the year and continues to rise due to massive spending packages. Now that America is committed to funding two largescale wars and 7.2+ million new migrants, America will continue sinking deeper in a hole.

The Committee to Unleash Prosperity (CTUP) funded the billboard and said its aim to inform the voting public on the policies that will destroy this nation. CTUP says that this is a bipartisan problem that must be revealed to average person. Their website quotes Milton Friedman:

“Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax … If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or in the form of borrowing. The thing you should keep your eye on is what government spends, and the real problem is to hold down government spending as a fraction of our income, and if you do that, you can stop worrying about the debt.”
Friedman Milton Autograph

The average person does not realize that these “free” aid packages to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, the migrants, climate change, etc., come at the expense of the US taxpayers. YOU are paying for all of these measures. Government has and will raise taxes in order to fund these fiscal measures but they will NEVER collect enough revenue from the people to cover their spending. Then these measures lead to rising inflation where goods cost significantly more and our dollar is worth significantly less.

The Congressional Budget Office stated that national debt reached 97% of GDP by the end of 2022.  I repeatedly point to Jerome Powell’s 60 Minute interview where he breaks with Washington to point out how utterly unsustainable government policy has become. “How do you asses the national debt?” the interviewer questioned the Fed chairman. “We mostly try very hard not to comment on fiscal policy and instruct Congress on how to do their job,” Powell answered, adding that Congress has oversight on the Fed and not the other way around.

@60minutes

60 Minutes witnessed migrants struggling to get through coils of sharp wire to illegally enter the U.S. #60minutes #eaglepasstx #borderpatrol #usborder #migrants

♬ original sound – 60 Minutes

“In the long run, the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path. The US federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path and that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy,” Powell finally warned, later adding, “effectively, we are borrowing from future generations.” He warned that we must begin to prioritize fiscal policy immediately to fix this unending crisis. Again, his comments were unprecedented as his agency is largely unable to criticize Washington. How is the Federal Reserve supposed to regulate price stability when their overlords are doing everything possible to steer the nation’s economy off the deep end?

So what can the public do and what’s the point of this billboard? It begins with your voice and ends with your vote. Stop supporting these endless wars, they are only hurting the nation from within and are NOT meant to attain victory or liberate anyone. We are not helping the people of Ukraine by prolonging their war. We are not saving the world by throwing money at climate change policies. We simply do not have the resources to fund millions of migrants who continue to show up at the border every minute. All of these policies are hurting the economy and, ultimately, the future of America and the American people.

Mar 1 2024

The Dow Breaks Out to New High Closing


Posted originally on Feb 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

DJIND M Bifurcation 2 29 24

The Dow exceeded the January high and closed February at 38,996.39. The NASDAQ composite has yet to exceed the 2021 high despite the AI Bubble. This still reflects the international capital flows, and our Chaos Models show there will be a trend emerging with a gap between the main turning points ahead. The atmosphere of WAR is impacting the market and the capital flows. Comments from Macron calling to send in troops to Ukraine to prevent somehow its fall, which is inevitable, has only led Putin to say that then opens the door to nuclear warfare.

They are determined to start a war this summer before the 2024 US elections. Both European leaders, NATO, and the Neocons are living in sheer terror of a Trump victory, for he is anti-war, CBDCs, and climate change. If they cannot prevent Trump from taking the White House, I fear they will assassinate him, for there is way too much at stake for these people. I would be very concerned about July, for things appear to be heating up and going into Panic Cycles in many markets come August/September.

We have reached our target of 40,000 we set back in 2011. Our resistance now in the Dow, given a continued rally, is forming at the 42,000-43,000 area.  Exceeding that overhead barrier opens the door to a test of 50,000.

I will do a monthly review tomorrow.

Feb 27 2024

Forecasting the Future Based on the Past


Posted originally on Feb 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Socrates Monitory Globe

COMMENT #1: I was there at your 2011 WEC. I was dragged along by a friend. I remember well your forecast for war starting in 2014 and your forecast that the Dow would go to 40,000. I thought you were crazy. I bet my friend $100 you would be wrong. I had to pay up. Here we are at 40,000 and the Ukraine war started in 2014. I have to admit, I now see why institutions line up at your door and the government wanted your model.

You are a gift to mankind when we need clarity more than ever.

Thank you. It was the best bet I ever lost.

EP

COMMENT #2: everyone thought you were crazy years ago when you said dow 40000–here we are. it all came true.

ok see you soon

Brent

COMMENT #3: You are the only analyst who is consistent. I appreciate it is not your personal opinion like everyone else. That forecast the Dow would reach 40,000 is here and so is the war.

Stay safe. My whole family now listens to you.

HW

Debasement Gallienus

REPLY: Because my father was a lawyer who always hoped he would put “and son” on the door, I disappointed him in that regard. For whatever reason, I was always fascinated by what made the rise and fall of markets as well as empires, nations, and city-states.  He did teach me about law from probably 7 years old. He handed me Aristotle to read for one summer. I handed that to my son in the family tradition when he became a teenager. Yet he also instilled an interest in history. I bought my first Roman coin for $10, probably when I was 10 to 12 years old. I could hold history in the palm of my hand. I saw the US take silver out of the coins in 1965, and I saw the parallel to Rome and how the same pattern emerged.

Family Trip 1964

I also have to thank him for seeing the future of computers and pushing me into computer engineering, where in the ’60s, we had to study hardware design as well as software. I learned to code in machine language and connected the dots between programming and trading in the ’70s. Taking the family to Europe for the summer of 1964 opened my eyes to the world of currencies since we traveled all over from Sweden to Italy and everything in between.

That all set the stage for this journey I have been on, which I never set out to accomplish. Nevertheless, because of that worldview instilled in me by my father, I saw the world of finance, and that 1964 trip taught me, moving from one current to the next, that my home currency was really a mental language of value. I would have to listen to the price in whatever currency and then convert that in my head back to dollars. Only then could I rationalize if it was a fair price or not.

MA Socrates Prison

Visiting jail cell of Athens

Thus, I designed Socrates to look at the world and determine who will do what, for everyone will make a judgment call based upon their home currency, which is a language of value in their head. Here, you can see how the same market appears differently depending on your currency. I chose the name Socrates because he was really accused of knowing too much. They put him on trial for influencing the youth and executed him for sharing that knowledge.

Martin Armstrong Margaret Thatcher

All of that set me on the path to where I am today, but it also taught me a lesson that opinions are not the way to forecast. I probably have more experience than most. I have been to White House dinners, been on a board of a bank, met with board members of IMF and heads of state, addressed boards of the largest banks internationally, been an international hedge fund manager, and been called in by so many central banks as well as testified before Congress and been called in for just about every financial crisis around the world. That’s just the shortlist.

Because I specialized in currency, that has put me in the middle of almost everything since the 1970s.  Currency was the mover and shakers behind the politics of the world. It was far more than simply trading buy here and sell there. It is why the CFTC had even subpoenaed me, demanding a list of all my clients worldwide so they could prove I manipulated the world because I was too influential in their view. I defended in court and won. They were always seeking to shut down the forecasting.

History repeats because humanity never learns. These people who push for war have no end game. Nobody ever seems to ask – what comes next. They took down Saddam Hussein and never once asked: What would happen if you overthrew a government?

They are doing that again with Russia. Victoria Nuland is highly dangerous. She personally hates Russians, and nobody has a view of what would happen if you overthrew the Russian government. Would you then have nukes for sale on the black market?

I have been behind the curtain. I have never witnessed such evil and incompetent people in charge. I suppose this is necessary as we head into 2032. I want to stress that these forecasts are NOT my opinion. They are not based on anything other than the raw economics and capital flows. They are not based on religious philosophy, nor did I introduce astrology. They are the objective view of the computer, the ONLY fully functioning AI system in the world monitoring the global economy with a track record of nearly 50 years.

Yes, people are saying I should float it now. It would be worth hundreds of billions. I don’t have the time or the energy to take that on now, and I have more than enough to support me until Scotty beams me up. Nobody respectful has been beating down my door who would maintain my dream to ensure it helps the world – not a small WEF billionaire click.