Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange Re-Posted Jul 9, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
Many questions have come about my post on Soros and how the pound was different from a floating exchange rate. Soros took the lead, but everyone in the club was on that trade. Europe created the ERM which was fixing the European currencies against one another which was the prelude to the Euro. This is why they drove Margate Thatcher out of office because she opposed joining the Euro. Her cabinet revolted because they wanted to kill the pound and join the Euro.
After pushing her out of the office kicking her to the side like she was a dog they just ran over and left her for dead, they reversed her policies that caused a financial crisis. They swiftly took the pound into the ERM in preparation for joining the Euro. Of course, pride and politics came into play and the John Major government overvalued the pound in the ERM fixed rate which was unsustainable. His campaign promise was that he would NEVER devalue the pound.
Because I had advised Maggie against joining the Euro when Soros et al began shorting the pound it was a guaranteed trade. If the pound broke, they make a fortune. If they were wrong they lost nothing because it was a FIXED exchange rate. This was one of the reasons I was being called in around the world because politicians tried to fix currencies, and when they broke such pegs, they would always blame speculators.
This was like going to a casino and putting all your money on red at the roulette table, and when black comes out, they handed your chips back. This was the Financial Crisis of 1992-1993.
Betting against a peg or fixed exchange rate is a guaranteed trade. I was named Forex Person of the Year 2015 because the Swiss Peg broke when nobody expected it assuming governments are all-powerful.