The Build Back Better Western Energy Policy is Making Russia Very Rich


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 29, 2022 | Sundance

As the global cleaving begins taking shape based on the new western energy system, the Build Back Better agenda, Russian energy exports are worth a lot more money.  As a result, the Russian economy has gained more wealth than before the western sanctions regime was triggered.  As noted by the Wall Street Journal:

(Via WSJ) – […] Demand from some of the world’s largest economies has given Russian President Vladimir Putin the upper hand in the energy battle that shadows the war in Ukraine, and has confounded the West’s bid to cripple Russia’s economy with sanctions.

Sales are booming in Russia’s export market, the world’s largest in crude and refined fuels. And new trade arrangements have given Mr. Putin cover to use natural gas exports as an economic weapon against Ukraine’s European allies. Before the war, Russia supplied Europe with 40% of its gas. It has since throttled flows through the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany and other conduits, driving prices higher and putting pressure on European households and businesses.

Oil revenue more than makes up the difference. “Russia is swimming in cash,” said Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist at the Institute of International Finance. Moscow earned $97 billion from oil and gas sales through July this year, about $74 billion of that from oil, she said.

[…] Russian energy sales have flourished by finding new buyers, new means of payment, new traders and new ways of financing exports, according to oil traders, former Russian industry executives and shipping officials.

“There came a realization that the world needs oil, and nobody’s brave enough to embargo 7.5 million barrels a day of Russian oil and oil products,” said Sergey Vakulenko, an analyst and former Russian energy executive.

After buyers in the U.S., the European Union and their Pacific allies cut back their Russian oil imports, much of it went to nations in Asia that have declined to take sides in the conflict.

An unexpected market has been the Middle East. Exports of Russian fuel oil, a lightly refined version of crude, now go to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, often stopping in Egypt en route.

The Russian oil is either burned in Saudi power stations or exported from Fujairah, a U.A.E. port and hot spot for blending Russian and Iranian oils to conceal their provenance. This is oil that before the war was shipped to U.S. refiners.

The Russian imports, purchased at a discount, free state giant Saudi Arabian Oil Co. to export its crude at market prices. “The Saudis are happy to take their oil and sell it rather than burning it,” said Carole Nakhle, chief executive at consulting firm Crystol Energy.

The arrangement adds supply to the global oil market, helping put a lid on prices. “This is a win-win situation for the Russians and even, I would say, for the Europeans and the U.S.,” Ms. Nakhle said.  (read more)

A New Transmission of Intellectual Froglegs Breaks Through


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 28, 2022 | Sundance 

Comrades, the dissident messenger known as Joe Dan Gorman has surfaced again, just long enough to transmit another Tokyo Rose’ broadcast in a coded frequency only receivable by patriots with a funny bone.  This natural coded messaging ensures communists and leftists are incapable of receiving it.

The August edition comes from deep in the underground bunker of the Rebel Alliance.  Pull out those super-secret decoder rings, and enjoy the transmission before the deep state satellite interception trucks show up on your driveway…

Direct Rumble Link Here ] – [Website Here]

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Comrade rebels, do not forget to eat this broadcast after sharing.

Ukrainians Forbidden From Accepting Russian Aid


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Aug 29, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Ukrainians are not permitted to accept any humanitarian relief from Russian agencies. Civilians in a war zone could face life imprisonment for accepting relief, including food. Ministry of Internal Affairs Alyona Matveeva said each case would be analyzed separately.

“For example, if a person called to support the military of the Russian Federation or provided some information, took humanitarian aid (from the Russians – ed.) and distributed it – this is one punishment, if it is about some more serious actions of a person, for example, when a person’s collaborative activity had such an impact that someone died because of it – the term in this case can be more serious, even up to life imprisonment,” the spokeswoman said.

There are currently 815 ongoing criminal investigations for breaching national security, treason, and collaborationism. This is simply what is occurring in Ukraine, but anyone in a country that has joined the proxy war found aiding Russia could come under fire. I reported on the signs around Estonia’s border, asking people to report anyone suspected of collaborating with the enemy. We have not learned from history. This is another example of the government turning neighbors against one another. The Soviet Union once employed the same tactics, as did many other regimes. These measures simply cause distrust and paranoia to spread as the government expects the people to spy on their own family and friends. Your neighbor is now a potential enemy, and your own actions may be considered suspicious.

Sunday Talks, The Current Status of Conflict in Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 28, 2022 | Sundance

An additional perspective on the current status of the Ukraine-Russia conflict from Retired Lt. Col. Daniel Davis.  WATCH:

A strong point made from the mailroom, adds perspective toward why the British are disproportionately taking on the responsibility for the European war machine inside Ukraine.   It has been noted the U.K. government is doing much of the training, arming and support for Ukraine from within the EU.  The question becomes, why was Boris Johnson and the British government so ‘all-in’ with their full-throated military support?

Perhaps the answer is as simple as the London financial markets. “The UK has nothing left but those sketchy money markets and exchanges. The Russians, joking at the sanctions, pricing resources in rubles, working with BRICS, are an existentialist threat to the UK. It shows that the financial exchanges and trading houses based in the UK are paper tigers because they can be easily bypassed. Russia is indeed an existentialist threat to the UK.”

It’s a good point.

We’re Controlling You Even MORE Now!


Awaken With JP Published originally on Rumble on August 27, 2022

Welcome to tonight’s broadcast, we can’t believe you’re dumb enough to keep watching, but here we go!

Newt Gingrich Predicts DOJ Will Attempt to Indict President Trump Using a DC Grand Jury, “They are Playing for Keeps”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 28, 2022 | Sundance

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich knows a thing or ten about the DC Deep State, and he appeared on television with Mark Levin to deliver a stark opinion about the current course of action by a comprehensively corrupt and politicized DOJ and FBI. {Direct Rumble Link}

From the perspective of Mr. Gingrich the institutional system within Washington DC is “playing for keeps” with “no interest in the law,” in their effort to keep Donald Trump from challenging the corrupt system now controlling the U.S. government.  Unfortunately, I agree with the prediction.  WATCH:

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As soon as the Washington DC FBI sent agents to Florida, everything changed.  If you stand back and look at the national political events from an objective perspective, the connections between the executive agencies and the national political apparatus starts taking on a new clarity.

Additionally, when you overlay the tepid initial response from a newly managed Florida Governor, then look at his national rollout, you can see a specifically constructed series of events intended to give an alternative for the MAGA outrage vote.

The RNC club donors and deep political operatives have been in a full national push position for Ron DeSantis which was triggered immediately after the August 8th raid on Mar-a-Lago.

For five days immediately following the raid, DeSantis remained locked down and silent in a political bunker until he emerged on August 14th in Arizona, complete with a new press office and management team.  The timing, the series of events, the branding shift and the lack of response to the FBI raid is simply too coincidental to be happenstance.

This doesn’t mean Ron DeSantis himself knew of the raid in advance; but someone in the DC Republican advisory apparatus with influence over DeSantis did know it was coming.  He was prepared to go quiet. That explains the behaviors, and lack therein, that followed.

That entire sequence of events in Florida, including the branding and book drop by alternative media (Ben Shapiro) was a big tell; it indicated a closely coordinated RNC club operation.

In the days/weeks that followed, DeSantis has been very careful to avoid any mention of the Mar-a-Lago raid, or criticism of the DOJ, Main Justice, or FBI.   Instead, he has followed an easy route to punch soft targets like Anthony Fauci and the social inequity of Biden’s college tuition debt forgiveness.

With 94% of Ron DeSantis funding coming from multinational corporations, Wall Street hedge funds and billionaires, it is easy to see where the control mechanisms are as the club masters look to take down Trump and retain control of U.S. economic, monetary and trade policy.  [SEE HERE] Ultimately, that economic system is what the Wall Street donors are paying to control.  Remember, there are trillions at stake.

In hindsight we can see the GOPe path that led to the inflection point of the August 8th raid.   However, all of these players have one major hurdle. They have gone all in against Donald Trump, and he is the one-person strong enough, and skilled enough, to outwit them.

Additionally, President Donald J Trump has the law, the constitution, the truth, and ultimately the largest portion of the awakened nation on his side.

Yes, I agree with Newt Gingrich that they are “playing for keeps.”  However, when all of the enemy is finally visible, that’s when the righteousness of natural sunlight becomes the strongest weapon.

Donald Trump may have a lot of human flaws, but authenticity, honesty and a genuine desire to do the very best for our nation is not among them.

Donald Trumps is not a deceptive person.  He is one of the most transparent people that history could ever record.  When fighting against deception and skullduggery, that transparency transfers into honest, deliberate and authentic communication; ultimately becoming a natural weapon against his opposition.

I am reminded of President Trump at the 2016 RNC nomination convention, when he said nothing except to walk into the arena while Ted Cruz was imploding in a grand and visible display of his lack of character and political dishonesty.  Candidate Donald Trump didn’t say a word, his appearance was an atomic sledgehammer all by itself.

President Donald Trump has natural gifts and instincts that have transferred well into politics, despite criticism of his tendency to grant benefit of doubt.

I can’t quite put my finger on it, but somehow, I sense that Ron DeSantis and Ted Cruz will soon have even more in common.

Florida Judge Indicates Intent to Appoint Special Master to Review Material Seized by DOJ in Trump Raid


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 27, 2022 | Sundance 

U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon has issued a two-page order [SEE HERE] indicating her willingness to appoint a special master to review the documents seized by the DOJ in the Mar-a-Lago raid.

Judge Cannon has asked the Justice Department to produce by Tuesday “a more detailed” list of items seized from Trump’s residence on Aug. 8 as well as the status of the government’s ongoing review of those materials, which includes the use of a “filter team” to screen for attorney-client privileged records.

[Source pdf Here]

Neil Oliver, As the Elites Pivot Away from COVID, Now, Right Now, is the Time to Confront the Other Stuff


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 27, 2022 | Sundance

An excellent and righteously deliberate weekly monologue from Mr. Neil Oliver this week.  Oliver walks through recent examples of British governing officials now attempting to rewrite their history in pushing the COVID madness and panic and then he shifts to the more important issue of their bigger agenda.

Oliver correctly notes that now is the time to expose it all; expose all of the madness behind the grand plan to weaponize the false framework of climate change in a quest to take control and reduce the lives of people to subservient proles.  Now is the time for all the conspiracy theorists, tin foil hat wearers, Putin apologist, vaccine deniers and those who have been proven correct, to stand boldly amid the crowd of sheeple and defy the next effort.

The Ukraine narrative is a western created false ruse, a justification without merit, simply to inflict more pain and hardship in Europe around the bigger multinational energy program known as Build Back Better.  Now is the time to use the truth of COVID as a reference point and weapon to call it out and ridicule political leaders.  Now is the time to see who stands with the people upon policies of commonsense.  WATCH:

[Transcript] – Don’t be fooled into thinking this disaster movie is coming to an end.

Rishi Sunak was quick off the mark last week with his pitiful, self-serving claims about having known the lockdowns were a bad thing but that despite him drumming his tiny fists on the table until they were a little bit sore no one would listen to him.

He said his heroic efforts to avert disaster were deleted from the official records of meetings he attended.

If that’s true – if minutes of meetings affecting government policy were doctored – then Sunak’s claims demand criminal investigation and jail time for those responsible – including big wigs with letters after their names, who presumably knew the truth of it as well and kept their mouths shut while people needlessly died miserable deaths, endured miserable lives and the country was driven off a cliff.

Sunak squeaks that he was on the right side of history but powerless. What absolute twaddle. He was arguably the second most powerful figure in government. By his own admission, he went along with all that was done to us. If it had ever been about principles, he would have resigned the first time his dissent was ignored and erased. He would have made his way hot foot to a television studio and there delivered an honest statement about how doing the right thing was more important than keeping his job. He did none of those things.

For all that, there’s excitement in the air. The mere fact the former chancellor and would-be prime minister has broken ranks – basically opting for the tried and trusted playground tactic of claiming a big boy did it and ran away means many are scenting blood in the water.

I’m hearing a lot of people, desperate and hopeful that the whole truth will finally come out, saying things like, “the narrative is finally falling apart.”

It might be and it might not. But the Covid and lockdown double-act is expendable. They’ve wrung all the juice they’re ever going to get out of that rotten fruit and now it’s ready to be cast aside. Or maybe it will just go on the back burner while other, fresher concoctions are brought forward. Either way, someone, somewhere seems to have decided it’s time to move on.

Just don’t be fooled into thinking that stuff about saving Granny and the NHS was ever the point, far less the main event. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again:

“It’s never about what they say it’s about.”

Thousands of grannies and grandpas died anyway and the NHS is a vast money pit that sucks in billions and now shuts its doors against people dying of cancer. I don’t believe the last two years was ever about public health.

The people who said lockdowns would kill many more than Covid, have been proved right. I’ve listened, ad nauseam, to all that stuff about:

“It was so scary in the beginning – those images from China – our leaders were just doing what they thought was right …”

Yada, yada, yada – I barely bought it then and now it seems obvious that from the beginning, whatever Covid was or wasn’t, wherever it came from, it was blatantly exploited in pursuit of long planned goals. From the beginning I say it was about fear and control.

The good ship Pandemic is holed below the waterline and all the rats are scuttling towards the life rafts. All the lies about Covid, all the lies about vaccines, more and more exposed every day.

On the other side of the Atlantic, micro megalomaniac Antony Fauci is making for dry land as fast as his little paws will propel him. There are so many rats on that sinking ship, however, that they know there won’t be enough rafts. They are aboard the Titanic and many won’t make it. Here’s hoping.

Now that some of the great and the good are changing their tune … now that more and more of the mainstream media are pirouetting like ballerinas and finally contemplating questions some of us have been asking, shouting indeed, on a desperate loop, for months and years, there’s a narrow window of opportunity for getting some other stuff out into the open. And so now seems like the right time to think more of the unthinkable and say more of the unsayable.

Things are unfolding now exactly as the so-called conspiracy theorists, us with the tin hats on, said they would. And while everyone else – those who poured scorn, and ridiculed and hated – surely have to face the fact that we, the outcasts who lost work and reputations and much else besides – were right all along about the unforgivable damage of locking down, about harms to children, about being determined to refuse the Covid injections – in this brief moment while those who had nothing to offer but spite, and vitriol and undisguised loathing for those of us who first suspected we were being sold a pup – and who felt something wrong in our guts and so bothered to do our own reading and learned we were absolutely right and so spoke out and kept speaking out – right now before those smug smarty pants regroup behind the next line trotted out by the establishment, we can state some more of the blindingly obvious.

Let me, on behalf of my fellow conspiracy theorists, put more of the truth out there. After all, in a few months’ time it’s what those same smarty pants will be saying they knew all along as well.

Here’s what I make of the bigger picture – and what some of us so-called Covidiots, anti-vaxxers, Putin-apologists, fascist, far-right extremist swivel-eyed loons want to talk about next.

Whatever is happening in Ukraine, to that country and to its people, both are undoubtedly being used by those who also need something and someone to make their own populations look the other way. The horror show in the Ukraine is being exploited.

Here at home last week, Boris implied that while only lesser mortals are fretting selfishly about heat and food, his attentions are focused on the lofty heights of saving the world. The little people of Britain must endure cold and hunger for … guess what … the greater good.

Anyone with even the faintest grasp on, at least an interest in, geopolitics knowns it is utterly bogus and he is a fraud – along with Biden, Trudeau, Macron, Von der Leyen and the rest of a list so long I don’t have time to read it out.

The imminent cold and hunger were made inevitable not by Putin in 2022, but years ago by the adoption of ruinous, ideologically driven nonsense presented as world-saving environmental policies that only denied us any hope of energy independence, the profitable exploitation of all the resources beneath our feet and seas and condemned much of Europe to dependence on Russia.

What we are paying is the cost of going Green, when those polices are not green at all but predicated upon some of the most destructive and toxic practices and technologies ever conceived.

Wind and solar will never provide the energy we need to keep thriving as societies, to grow and flourish. The situation is so insane I find it easiest to conclude we are simply meant to do without.

Stop thinking we’re all going to have cars, and international travel, and warm homes – just different than before. What seems obvious is that we are being groomed to live small lives, to make way for the grandiose expectations and entitlements of the elites that are working so effectively to hoover up the last of the wealth.

Smaller lives, colder lives may actually be the best we can hope for, given the plans evidently laid out for us by those with their hands on the levers of power. Our leaders used to tell us we needed them in order to be free. In future they will have us believe we need them to be safe. Caged animals are safe, but it’s not much of a life.

Energy prices will keep going up. This will obviously hurt the poorest countries and poorest people first and worst. What is obvious about the Green warriors making war on affordable, reliable energy is that they care not a jot about the poor – at least not the actual poor alive in the world today.

Those real flesh and blood people are to be sacrificed, by the millions, utterly denied the energy that might have lifted them out of poverty, so that imaginary people as yet unborn might thrive in a Utopia that exists only in the imaginations of pampered protesters. China will just burn more coal to compensate and seize more control but, shh, best not mention it.

That corrupted thinking comes from Communism – or perhaps Communism’s idiot cousin Socialism. Green warriors don’t care about the poor, in the same way socialists don’t care about the poor … they just hate the rich.

Which is ironic, given that with their infantile protests they are doing the work of the very richest for them.

Ukraine produces a fifth of the wheat crop, required by the poorest. Not this year though. Whatever has been grown will be hard to store and harder to export – so that hunger and full-blown famine becomes a looming threat for hundreds of millions of the world’s hungriest people.

In richer countries, life is being made deliberately impossible for farmers. Spiking costs of fertilisers and fuel are one thing but governments in the Netherlands, across Europe, in Canada and elsewhere around the world are persecuting those who grow our food. Farmers are being made to endure restrictions that destroy their businesses, being driven off their land altogether. They will have to watch as fields they have known and cared for over generations are hoovered up by transnational organisations with other ideas about what that land might be used for.

If you think mass migration and immigration are difficult problems now, wait until the unavoidable famines cause a hemorrhage of humanity out of the poorest countries of Africa and the Middle East. Perhaps hundreds of millions of people with nothing more to lose.

Where do you think they’ll go?

And here’s another inconvenient truth: money and weapons keep flowing into Ukraine, but despite months of war and sanctions, the Russian ruble remains strong and an end to hostilities seems as far away as ever. Maybe no one wants that war to end. Wars don’t determine who’s right anyway; wars determine who’s left.

Ultimately this is all about wealth and power. Not money, remember. Money is to wealth as a menu is to a steak. One’s a worthless bit of paper, the other something that will keep you alive. This is about actual wealth and its acquisition. It’s about the already super-rich getting hold of even more of the real things. Land, buildings, natural resources, gold. While we are supposed to be frightened out of our wits, squabbling among ourselves, and just hoping that one day it will all be over, a relative handful of others are hoovering up all the wealth, as planned.

Whichever way you slice it, an economic and societal shock on a scale that has not happened in lifetimes, if ever, is on its way. The world we live in is built in its entirety upon unimaginable, and now unsustainable, levels of debt. Trillions … quadrillions of dollars’ worth. There is always much more debt in the world than money – so that it is never possible to settle the debt. Now that debt, all that created money, is about to come crashing down.

Don’t be fooled by Sunak and the rest and their about face – their pretense that they were with us all along. Covid and lockdown carried them only so far – but they plan to go much further. Disease, War, Famine, Death – the same people always ride on the same four horses.

Now is not the time to take our eyes off the ball. Not by a long chalk. Keep watching the usual suspects.

As I say, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.

[Transcript]

…”It’s time!”

How Convenient, Biden State Dept Says They Will No Longer Publish List of U.S. Weapons Given or Sold to Foreign Countries


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 26, 2022 | Sundance 

Buried inside Section 5114(b)(4) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022 was a repeal of 1994 law that required the U.S. State Department to publish an annual list of arms sales to foreign countries.  The “World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers” report (WMEAT) put sunlight every year on what weapons the U.S. was selling to foreign countries.

Conveniently timed with the $60+ billion aid package to Ukraine, the U.S. State Dept, now says the WMEAT report will not be published any longer.  If a person was to believe the Ukraine arms deals were essentially money laundering operations, well, this announcement by the State Dept. might be interpreted as a way to hide it. [LINK]

State Dept – WMEAT 2021, which the Department of State published in December 2021, is the final edition of World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers (WMEAT). Section 5114(b)(4) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022 repealed the 1994 statutory provision that required the Department of State to publish an edition of WMEAT every year. Consistent with this repeal, the Department of State will cease to produce and publish WMEAT.

Copies of all editions of WMEAT dating from 1974 to 2021 remain publicly accessible as Adobe PDF or Excel spreadsheet documents  (LINK)

Jerome Powell Says Fed Effort to Make U.S. Economy Smaller Will Create “Some Pain” for Americans During Biden Transition to Clean Energy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 26, 2022 | Sundance

When Chairman Powell says things are really, really going to suck as monetary policy tries to support Biden’s goals to reduce energy supplies, will people believe him?

The agenda of the federal reserve was clearly outlined today in the remarks from Chairman Powell in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The Fed chair is trying to manage the economic policy transition by reducing economic activity to match intentionally diminished energy supplies.  Lowering economic activity drops demand for energy. Unfortunately, as admitted by Powell today, this means a period of “some pain” for Americans as the central banks join together in an effort to lower consumption.  WATCH:

What does “some pain” mean?  It means lower incomes, higher prices, lowered standards of living and more scarce resources.   During this transition to owning nothing and being happy about it, the pain is your wealth being stripped as the economy is intentionally diminished.

We will not be able to afford much; we won’t be able to afford the foods we want; we will not be able to purchase anything except the essentials, and those essentials will cost much more; we won’t be able to vacation, travel, or enjoy recreational activities; we won’t be able to afford any indulgences; but at the end of the process, we will learn to live more meager existences based on lowered expectations needed for sustaining the planet.   Pay no attention to the elites who don’t have those concerns, comrade.

[Transcript] – POWELL: “At past Jackson Hole conferences, I have discussed broad topics such as the ever-changing structure of the economy and the challenges of conducting monetary policy under high uncertainty. Today, my remarks will be shorter, my focus narrower, and my message more direct.”

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy. Without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.

Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.

The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data have been mixed, in my view our economy continues to show strong underlying momentum. The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month’s improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down.

We are moving our policy stance purposefully to a level that will be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent. At our most recent meeting in July, the FOMC raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 2.25 to 2.5 percent, which is in the Summary of Economic Projection’s (SEP) range of estimates of where the federal funds rate is projected to settle in the longer run. In current circumstances, with inflation running far above 2 percent and the labor market extremely tight, estimates of longer-run neutral are not a place to stop or pause.

July’s increase in the target range was the second 75 basis point increase in as many meetings, and I said then that another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting. We are now about halfway through the intermeeting period. Our decision at the September meeting will depend on the totality of the incoming data and the evolving outlook. At some point, as the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases.

Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants’ most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023. Participants will update their projections at the September meeting.

Our monetary policy deliberations and decisions build on what we have learned about inflation dynamics both from the high and volatile inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, and from the low and stable inflation of the past quarter-century. In particular, we are drawing on three important lessons.

The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation. It may seem strange now that central bankers and others once needed convincing on these two fronts, but as former Chairman Ben Bernanke has shown, both propositions were widely questioned during the Great Inflation period.1 Today, we regard these questions as settled. Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States.

It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed’s tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve’s responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability. There is clearly a job to do in moderating demand to better align with supply. We are committed to doing that job.

The second lesson is that the public’s expectations about future inflation can play an important role in setting the path of inflation over time. Today, by many measures, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored. That is broadly true of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, and of market-based measures as well. But that is not grounds for complacency, with inflation having run well above our goal for some time.

If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. Unfortunately, the same is true of expectations of high and volatile inflation. During the 1970s, as inflation climbed, the anticipation of high inflation became entrenched in the economic decisionmaking of households and businesses. The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions. As former Chairman Paul Volcker put it at the height of the Great Inflation in 1979, “Inflation feeds in part on itself, so part of the job of returning to a more stable and more productive economy must be to break the grip of inflationary expectations.”2

One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of “rational inattention.”3 When inflation is persistently high, households and businesses must pay close attention and incorporate inflation into their economic decisions. When inflation is low and stable, they are freer to focus their attention elsewhere. Former Chairman Alan Greenspan put it this way: “For all practical purposes, price stability means that expected changes in the average price level are small enough and gradual enough that they do not materially enter business and household financial decisions.”4

Of course, inflation has just about everyone’s attention right now, which highlights a particular risk today: The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

That brings me to the third lesson, which is that we must keep at it until the job is done. History shows that the employment costs of bringing down inflation are likely to increase with delay, as high inflation becomes more entrenched in wage and price setting. The successful Volcker disinflation in the early 1980s followed multiple failed attempts to lower inflation over the previous 15 years. A lengthy period of very restrictive monetary policy was ultimately needed to stem the high inflation and start the process of getting inflation down to the low and stable levels that were the norm until the spring of last year. Our aim is to avoid that outcome by acting with resolve now.

These lessons are guiding us as we use our tools to bring inflation down. We are taking forceful and rapid steps to moderate demand so that it comes into better alignment with supply, and to keep inflation expectations anchored. We will keep at it until we are confident the job is done.” [Transcript End]