Tag Archives: 22.46 year magnetic cycle

Dec 13 2024

Beware Last 2 Weeks of December – Something is Not Right


Posted Beware Last 2 Weeks of December – Something is Not Right

Posted Dec 12, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Confused Man

QUESTION: You said the computer does not support a bullish view of Trump taking office. Do you know why the computer is showing so many indexes are rolling over to the downside?

John

DJIND M Tech 12 12 24

ANSWER: I strongly suggest that this is the time to pay close attention to Socrates, for this clearly shows that something is seriously wrong. This is not confined to the United States alone. So review all the markets that you are interested in. This may be critical. We have a sovereign debt crisis. We added all the spreads between France and other European member states. We have confidence in government starting to decline and instability rising among various governments.

GCNYNF M Tech 12 12 24
Bitcoin M CME 12 12 24

Most indices and markets we look at are starting to roll over, even Bitcoin, which has a target and Directional Change here in December. The global capital markets are not booming with euphoria thanks to the Trump victory. I hope this has nothing to do with the NEOCONs making a third attempt to eliminate their greatest threat to their power.

National_Guard_1953 postage stamp

I am concerned about this usurpation of the state’s military power in Congress’ newly unveiled annual defense bill that could soon be signed into law. The final version of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act is removing the National Guard Air defense to the Federal power. This is over the objections of some 55 state and territorial governors. WHY? This seems to be inspired by the threat of the States being able to resist the Feds. This is not a good sign.

Ruble M Tech 12 12 24

When we look at Russia, we also see December as a turning point and a move into February in the immediate future. The risk remains that NATO is trying desperately to create war with Russia before Trump takes office. My concern here is that they will create a false flag to blame Russia, just as the CIA proposed Project Northwoods to justify invading Cuba. We see a Directional Change for Russia next week.

LAST TWO WEEKS OF DECEMBER

Something is just not right. The capital is pinching up a change in the wind. So, Pay attention to Socrates at this point in time. Dec 12, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Confused Man

QUESTION: You said the computer does not support a bullish view of Trump taking office. Do you know why the computer is showing so many indexes are rolling over to the downside?

John

DJIND M Tech 12 12 24

ANSWER: I strongly suggest that this is the time to pay close attention to Socrates, for this clearly shows that something is seriously wrong. This is not confined to the United States alone. So review all the markets that you are interested in. This may be critical. We have a sovereign debt crisis. We added all the spreads between France and other European member states. We have confidence in government starting to decline and instability rising among various governments.

GCNYNF M Tech 12 12 24
Bitcoin M CME 12 12 24

Most indices and markets we look at are starting to roll over, even Bitcoin, which has a target and Directional Change here in December. The global capital markets are not booming with euphoria thanks to the Trump victory. I hope this has nothing to do with the NEOCONs making a third attempt to eliminate their greatest threat to their power.

National_Guard_1953 postage stamp

I am concerned about this usurpation of the state’s military power in Congress’ newly unveiled annual defense bill that could soon be signed into law. The final version of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act is removing the National Guard Air defense to the Federal power. This is over the objections of some 55 state and territorial governors. WHY? This seems to be inspired by the threat of the States being able to resist the Feds. This is not a good sign.

Ruble M Tech 12 12 24

When we look at Russia, we also see December as a turning point and a move into February in the immediate future. The risk remains that NATO is trying desperately to create war with Russia before Trump takes office. My concern here is that they will create a false flag to blame Russia, just as the CIA proposed Project Northwoods to justify invading Cuba. We see a Directional Change for Russia next week.

LAST TWO WEEKS OF DECEMBER

Something is just not right. The capital is pinching up a change in the wind. So, Pay attention to Socrates at this point in time.

Dec 11 2024

Undermining the Debt Creates Recessions and Depressions


Posted originally on Dec 11, 2024 by Martin Armstrong |  

Bank Run 1931

Many mistakenly look to the stock market as the leading indication of economic security. The true culprit is the DEBT market, not the stock market, that leads to depressions and recessions. A recession, in comparison to a depression, is merely a minor impact that could be isolated to one nation. Unemployment will typically rise up to 10% in a recession, whereas a depression could see a 25%+ turn in unemployment. A lack of work leads to civil unrest and upheaval. Depressions are never isolated to one nation as they spread as a contagion throughout the world.

You could take the stock market down 30%, even 40%, and still not create a depression. Yet, if you undermine government debt by far less, you will create a severe economic downturn. Look to the banks. Under law, banks are required to use government debt as a reserve. Undermining government debt simply wipes out the banking industry as we have historically seen when bank after bank is forced to shutter.

During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. Look at what happened in 1931 when Europe defaulted on its debt, as did Asia and so forth since depressions become contagions. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds.

This is an oversimplified version of this message but you can read more on the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis throughout this website. Governments default and then that often leads to a regime change. The incoming regime will simply say, “Oh, that was the debt of the last government and we need not pay.” Listen, the stock market could plunge 20% and the banks would be OK. But if you saw the same in the debt market, in particular sovereign debt, you’re in serious trouble.

Dec 11 2024

Cycles & the Next Generation


Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

History Repeat Copy

COMMENT: When I ask someone about your theories, they claim you are unconventional. They said the same thing about Einstein and even Kynes in the early 1920s. It seems that anyone who thinks outside the box is labeled unconventional, but in the end, they adopt the very theories and become conventional. They seem to make history repeat, for they always defend their position, which is obviously wrong.

I just wanted to say that historical recurrence is not something new. It has played an important role in developing Western historiography since antiquity. I am sure you are well versed. The view that “history repeats itself” is characteristically Greek. They understood everything was cyclical from the observations of cosmic and social cycles. I believe you have explained that history repeats itself better than anyone. It is human nature for people to respond the same way to similar situations regardless of the century.

Your intention to hold a WEC for the next generation is vital. You are offering something academia will only acknowledge when they are forced into embarrassment as to place during the Great Depression. Only then did they turn to Keynes.

There are those of us willing to donate to such a project.

Please consider the importance of this for the next generation.

Paul

1965 Clad Quarter
Marius AE Antontinianus 268AD Gallic Empire

ANSWER: History repeats because human nature is constant regardless of the century. But it is often also driven by notions of retribution, rebirth, reenactment, and imitation. Both Hitler and Napoleon sought to resurrect the old Roman Empire. Because I witnessed the debasement of silver coinage in 1965 and was familiar with the debasement of Roman coinage and how they, too silver, plated bronze coinage to retain the appearance of silver as we created a nickel-clad coinage in 1965, as a kid, I instantly saw history repeating.

Here is a Roman coin of Marius (268AD). You can see that the silver plating is starting to wear off, revealing the core is merely bronze. Inflation was soaring, and President Kennedy signed an executive order to remove silver from the coinage in 1963. Here, we see in Rome that inflation also soared once emperor Valerian I (253-260AD) was captured in battle by the Persians – the first emperor to have even been captured. That also set in motion a financial panic where bankers were uncertain if they should even accept Roman coins anymore.

Bruno-2

By the middle of the second century BC, Rome, Polybius of Megalopolis, had written his Historiae to explain how Rome conquered the known world. These thirty-nine books received their finality after 146BC. At first, Polybius was interested in Greek affairs. He was stunned by the rise of Rome and its rapid expansion into an empire. He attempted what he would call universal history rather than just looking at Rome as a local aberration or fluke. His Anacyclōsis offered basic paradigms of historical recurrence that were below the surface. Indeed, Polybius established that studying history provided sound political training (cf. Hist. I, I,2).

Polybius’s famous discussion of the mixed character of Rome’s republican constitution is found in Book 6, chap. 5. It was certainly Polybius who presupposed that past events reflected various paradigmatic movements and patterns that would reemerge in current and future affairs. It seems that the Dark Ages, which saw the death of knowledge and independent thought in Europe, also altered our understanding of the world and cycles. 

They burned Giordano Bruno (1548–1600) alive at the stake for merely agreeing with Calpurnicus in suggesting that the Earth rotated around the sun. The stupidity of the closed-minded at that time saw Haven must be above and Hell was below, so if the Earth was not fixed, then all religion was wrong. Thus, burn him alive as a heretic.

I greatly appreciate the offer. We will do something like that, for I do not have the time to write a plan for students.

Dec 6 2024

Nature vs Geopolitical


Posted originally on Dec 5, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

2024_12_05_14_36_28_Powerful_Earthquake_Strikes_off_Coast_of_Northern_California_Triggering_Tsunami

QUESTION: Marty, you said December was a chaotic month that was geopolitical and the risk of major earthquakes in California. Is this what the computer was forecasting?

WJ

APPLE M 12 5 24

ANSWER: There is a cycle to everything. A 7.0-magnitude earthquake has just struck off the coast of Northern California on Thursday, triggering a tsunami warning. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported that the tremor hit about 60 miles west-southwest of Ferndale, California. It’s not clear if any damage or injuries were reported.

However, while the computer projected the natural events for this week, the last two weeks of the month appear to be the most significant and appear more worldwide, suggesting they are more closely related to geopolitical events rather than domestic ones. Overall, December has been the most significant target, as you can see in this array for Apple.

The computer first shocked our readers in 1985 when it projected that a minor earthquake correlated to the double earthquake in Mexico would then unfold in NYC. This clear correlation was more than 90% accurate in history.

Dec 4 2024

California’s Energy Surplus


Posted originally on Dec 4, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

SolarPowerEnergy

Californians pay a fixed rate for their energy grid, but the state has been harvesting a surplus to the point that operators are forced to offload the energy to neighboring states that purchase it at a discount or even receive it free of cost. Governor Gavin Newsom praised California for advancing its energy storage by 1,250% since he took office, but it is not enough to attain current levels of energy and certainly not enough to reach the goal of going 100% renewable by 2045.

The Los Angeles Times found that Californians are now paying up to three times the national average for energy. The infrastructure simply is not in place to store or carry the amount of solar power generating, leading millions of dollars in energy waste. Southern California Edison and PG&E customers have experienced a 51% increase in costs over the last three years alone.

Still, the state is attempting to build MORE solar panels to reach its goal for 2045. Solar producers and grip operators are at odds. Solar farms have slowed energy production by 3 million megawatt hours in the last year, enough to power over half a million homes in California. The United State Energy Information Administration claims that power lines in many cases lack the capacity to deliver energy, and in other cases, the energy generated exceeds demand.

New Mexico, Oregon, Arizona, and Washington have all benefitted from California’s oversupply with cheap or free energy. California has the highest debt of any state in the nation. It cannot afford to lose money on this initiative. The state is ignoring the short-term while focusing on the lofty goal of achieving 100% renewable energy in the next 20 years. They sell renewables as a way to save but this is simply not the case for California residents who are paying more for a basic necessity.

Dec 2 2024

Climate Change Committee in the UK – Change Your Diet, Drive EVs, Travel Less


Posted originally on Dec 2, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Global warming cooling climate change

The United Kingdom’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) is rapidly moving to eliminate useless carbon from the environment by targeting citizens. The agency said that achieving Net Zero will require “behavioral changes” from the people that include curtailing every aspect of life from diet to transportation. But don’t worry, the agency claims the “people seem willing to accept there must be some degree of constraint.”

“In terms of the analysis we’ve done, about 10 percent of emissions reduction to 2035 comes from what we would think of as behaviour change. That’s predominantly around diets, flying and modal shifting [to] public transport,” CCC Director James Richardson said. Richardson said half of the necessary behavioral changes will surround diets as people will forced to consume less meat and find alternative protein sources.

The CCC would like to implement harsh fines on the automotive industry. Richardson compared the switch away from fuel engines as a simple matter of creative destruction. “We know from previous transitions between technologies that incumbent firms can get left behind – we all remember Blockbuster Video or Kodak. When these new technologies come in, it can be easy for incumbents to think they have more time to change than they do,” he stated. Well, we didn’t need to redo the entire infrastructure of the nation to do away with DVDs. There was a benefit to the consumer and private sector in adopting those new technologies. The private sector has shown an unwillingness to switch to EVs, for example, as has the consumer.

Food Shortage

Starmer lied at the COP29 summit when he claimed his government would not be “telling people how to live their lives’ by reducing air travel or changing their diets.” Other Build Back Better nations also adhering to the Great Reset are slowly forcing their populations to make changes through taxation on carbon-producing items like cattle or aviation. Yet, how will governments FORCE the people to change their diets and transportation methods? These agencies are overly optimistic for believing the masses will blindly comply with their baseless orders.

The CCC believes that Brits must reduce meat and dairy consumption by an astounding 50% by 2050. “Setting a target is not enough. The UK must back up its international commitments through actions here at home,” the CCC has explained. The agency has already made advancements in reducing the sheep and cattle population. CCC chairman Piers Forster. Forster has suggested imposing high taxes on meat and dairy products to make them less attainable for the average person. The governments will fill their coffers with taxes and the elite will not need to make such “behaviour changes” as these initiatives are meant to benefit the few while punishing the masses.

Insects Eat

Biden killed the Keystone XL Pipeline, as an example, under the premise of climate preservation and look what happened. All the measures taken to reduce fossil fuels have caused costs to skyrocket, but what happens when these measures transfer to the food supply? These nations are hampering their own ability to produce food by destroying cattle and farmland. They’re ensuring costs rise due to taxation. Importing goods has come at an increased cost due to increased demand and higher energy costs. These agencies have no alternative in place aside from lab-grown meat and insects. Is that a change we are willing to make for the benefit of none?

Dec 2 2024

The Shift from Public to Private


Posted originally on Dec 1, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

2024_11_30_18_12_04_Bond_vigilantes_upend_France_s_debt_market_Credit_Weekly

COMMENT #1: Marty: It is painfully obvious why the bankers always tried to have the government silence you. Every aspect of what you forecast eventually unfolds, turning this random walk theory into propaganda. Bloomberg has reported that French corporate rates are now below government. The shift from Public to Private is right before our eyes.

Thank you for a fantastic WEC. I loved your passion for saving the country if they listen. I also want to enroll my children in your gift to society, a WEC for the next generation. It’s just brilliant.

JD

COMMENT #2: Hi Martin,

As you predicted, corporate bonds of French companies now trade at yields below those of the government. Public to Private wave in full swing.

Best,
PH

COMMENT #3: I was in Moscow on business, and you were on national TV. What does that say about America? I have seen you on French TV, but never in the USA. They want to keep us deaf, dumb, blind, and obedient. Tune in, and we will tell you when Kamala will sweep everything. MSNBC lost 40% of its viewers. Truth sells – not propaganda.

SG

Corp Treas

REPLY: We have the largest database of anyone on the planet, covering the globe internationally and with an unlimited scope, from finance to wealth, nature, and disease. When there were the Sovereign Defaults of 1931 in Europe, Asia, and South America, combined with the corporate bankruptcies, the flight to quality was to the US treasuries. Even the City of Detroit suspended its debt.  You see, the peak in the premium for corporate over treasuries was in 1932. That coincided with the low in the stock market. When FDR came into power on March 4, 1933, after winning the 1932 election, you can see that the premium in corporate rates began to decline. In Europe, corporate rates dropped below government as people began to smell a rat.

1927 Secret Banking g4
Britain Suspends Gold Standard 9 21 1931

In 1927, the Fed lowered rates in the States, trying to deflect capital back to Europe. However, the smart money realized that the Fed’s action confirmed that a serious debt crisis was on the horizon in Europe. Even Britain, the Financial Capital of the World before World War I, suspended its debt, as reported on September 21st, 1931.

Corporate US Treasury W 11 30 24

You can track this important relationship through Socrates. When the confidence in the government declines, the capital will always shift from Public to Private and vice versa.

Forecaster The Movie R

The movie The Forecasted was played on national TV, even in Canada, Europe, and Scandinavia. You are correct, and they would never show it in the USA. Anything that shows the true nature of those in power will never be shown.

Nov 28 2024

Matthew Boyle Reports Biden DOJ Moved On Election Night To Cover Up Alleged Solar Energy Scandal


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on Nov 26, 2024 at 1:30 pm EST

Nov 24 2024

1992 Gore Forecasting Climate Ozone Should be gone by now


Posted originally on Nov 24, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Global Warming Cavemen Climate

Nov 4 2024

Are Betting Odds Better than Polls?


Posted originally on Nov 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Betting_Odds 2016

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for being so honest. I like how you separate your opinion from the computer. My question is simple. Do you give credence to the betting odds being more accurate than the polls?

See you next week

Frank

Newsweek Madam President Hillary Clinton R

ANSWER: The polls are often wrong, and the betting odds do not seem much better. In 2016, the odds of a Hillary victory were 88% compared to 13% for Trump. Our computer called it correctly, as was the case with BREXIT. With over 70 million in early voting, the computer will be correct on the turnout.

More voters (154.6 million) turned out for the presidential election in 2020 than in 2016 (137.5 million), the most significant increase between consecutive presidential elections since record-keeping began in 1964. The problem with the 2020 election was the scare tactics using COVID. The mail-in ballots were 65,642,049. The combined early voting and mail-in during 2016 was only 12.6 million. With early voting exceeding 70 million, this is by far the largest turnout for early voting in history.

VoterTurnout Y Chart 2024