Debt Ceiling & War Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted May 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

When we look at our Computer’s timing arrays for the 30-year bond, it did show a target last week with a Directional Change. So far the market has held that low and has been consolidating. When we look at the Array, we do not see a crisis with the debt ceiling. However, the next Fed Meeting is July 25-26 and when we look at our Array, we see that is when there is a Panic Cycle.

There is NOBODY in Washington who is ever interested in actually paying off the debt. Even AOC has come out and said there should be no debt ceiling – just print until the cows come home, but that may be a problem when Bill Gates and the WEF want to kill all the cows.

In that regard, we are only making things chaotic. The government should just print the money and not borrow in the first place for they are competing with the private sector which is the ONLY real creator of worthwhile jobs.

Meanwhile, the Neocons are hoping to start a war with massive air drills in Europe going to even Church, which they do not believe in God, and lighting candles just in case he does exist to please make Russia attack. If not, hell, they will just say Russia attacked as they lied and claimed that Vietnam attacked us and Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. War is on the horizon and that is the MOST inflationary influence of all.

After Contempt Threat, FBI Director Wray Admits Oversight Whistleblower Report on Shady Biden $5 million Payment Does Exist


Posted originally on the CTH on May 31, 2023 | Sundance 

An interesting series of updates to the FBI whistleblower case of Joe Biden taking a $5 million bribe payment which now looks to have originated in Ukraine.

The background claim is pretty basic. A whistleblower approached congress stating the FBI had a report, an unclassified FD-1023, detailing a conversation with a ‘confidential human source’ (CHS) that outlined Vice President Joe Biden taking a $5 million payment from a foreign national to affect a U.S. policy decision.  The FBI agent responsible for investigating the CHS claim was FBI Supervisory Intelligence Analyst Brian Auten, a sketchy character from the Trump-Russia probe.

The investigative events took place in June and July 2020 during the presidential election year.  The claim is that FBI Supervisory Intelligence Analyst Auten reportedly buried the CHS allegation saying it could not be corroborated, and then wrote an assessment that it was Russian disinformation.  However, the FBI investigative team didn’t see any effort by any FBI member to substantiate it.  Hence a whistleblower, with specific knowledge of the details in the allegation, surfaces and tells congress the FBI is hiding the FD-1023 that outlines the confidential human source allegation of bribery.

Congress requested the FD-1023, the FBI refused to provide it.  House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer then set a compliance deadline while he coordinated with Senator Chuck Grassley.  The FBI still refused to turn it over, saying they would neither confirm nor deny the FD-1023 existence, and said releasing any information like that would potentially compromise Confidential Human Sources (CHS’s).  The proverbial sources and methods excuse.

Yesterday, James Comer told FBI Director Chris Wray he would be held in contempt of congress for refusing the provide the letter to oversight.

Today, Christopher Wray admitted the existence of the FD-1023 and told Rep Comer and Senator Grassley he would let them come to FBI headquarters to look at it.

The FBI is still claiming the allegations have no way to be substantiated or corroborated.  However, there is a very strong possibility, based on records that Comer and Grassley have received from subpoenas for Biden banking information, the substantiation documents are already in the hands of congress.

WASHINGTON—House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) today issued the following statements after their discussion with FBI Director Christopher Wray about producing to Congress the unclassified, FBI-generated record alleging a criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Joe Biden and a foreign national.

“Today, FBI Director Wray confirmed the existence of the FD-1023 form alleging then-Vice President Biden engaged in a criminal bribery scheme with a foreign national. However, Director Wray did not commit to producing the documents subpoenaed by the House Oversight Committee. While Director Wray – after a month of refusing to even acknowledge that the form existed – has offered to allow us to see the documents in person at FBI headquarters, we have been clear that anything short of producing these documents to the House Oversight Committee is not in compliance with the subpoena. If the FBI fails to hand over the FD-1023 form as required by the subpoena, the House Oversight Committee will begin contempt of Congress proceedings,” said Chairman Comer.

“While the FBI has apparently leaked classified information to the news media in recent weeks, jeopardizing its own human sources, it continues to treat Congress like second class citizens by refusing to provide a specific unclassified record. Director Wray confirmed what my whistleblowers have told me pursuant to legally protected disclosures: the FBI-generated document is real, but the bureau has yet to provide it to Congress in defiance of a legitimate congressional subpoena. This failure comes with consequences,” Senator Grassley said. (read more)

Ukraine Preparing to Engulf the Entire World in Death & Carnage


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted May 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Some people have been sending hate mail claiming I am a Putin supporter. My advice to you is to grab a gun and go volunteer to fight for Zelensky.  ALL my sources have been screaming from the beginning that this Ukrainian war has been instigated by the US which has been taken over by a silent coup of the Neocons. Then some just hate Trump and are so blinded by it that they are walking into their doom.

Ukraine is out to create World War III. Russia has NOT been using military aircraft in Ukraine. They have only used missiles and drones. Ukraine has NO NEED for F16 jets other than to launch a war on Crimea to try to destroy the Russian fleet and they will use them to attack Moscow directly. They want the F16s from Briden but the long-range missiles from Germany. They are giving the Neocons cover so they can pretend that they did not supply those weapons to Moscow and when they attack a NATO country, then World War III will begin.

Get your head out of the sand. Wake up! Pull that COVID mask off of your eyes and get your head out of the sand.

You are taking your family down a very dark path.

Russia will have NO CHOICE but to protect its own people and that will be through Nuclear Confrontation

UKRAINE is the ENEMY of the Entire World – They Only Seek Death & Destruction

Had the Minsk Agreement Been Honored – there would have been NO war!

South Africa Offers Putin Diplomatic Immunity Ahead of BRICS Summit


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted May 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, Iran, China, South Africa) alliance is stronger than ever. The 15th annual meeting will be hosted in Cape Town, South Africa, and government leaders are urging all to attend. However, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has an outstanding warrant for the arrest of Vladimir Putin and South Africa is a member state.

President Cyril Ramaphosa understands the importance of the BRICS alliance and considered abandoning the ICC entirely before backtracking on his stance. Instead of leaving the ICC, South Africa now declares that it will grant diplomatic immunity to Putin to permit him to attend. “It is hereby published for general information that the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, in terms of section 6(2) of the Diplomatic Immunities and Privileges Act 2001, has recognised (the meetings),” the department said. The terms in the United Nations Convention should prevent the ICC from arresting Putin, who is considered a war criminal for the invasion of Ukraine.

Specifically, the ICC charged Putin “for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute).” Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, is also wanted by the ICC for the same charges. The Kremlin has denied that the deportations were forced and said that they were attempting to save Russian children living in Ukraine. Ukraine only entered the ICC in March of 2022, but numerous countries, including China and the United States, do not recognize “the court of last resort.” Lvova-Belova told news outlets that she was proud of her work in removing children from an active war zone. “It’s great that the international community has appreciated the work to help the children of our country, that we do not leave them in the war zones, that we take them out, that we create good conditions for them, that we surround them with loving, caring people,” she stated.

So, will Putin take the risk? On the one hand, his presence would signal that he is unafraid of international law. On the other hand, the Neocons would delight in an opportunity to arrest the Russian president to begin WW3. A country would need to be extremely careful to arrest the head of a country with nuclear capabilities in the middle of a war.

Biden on Gay Marriage (2006)


Armstrong Economics Blog/WOKE Re-Posted May 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Politicians echo the popular opinion of the time to gain votes. They act in their own self-interest and do not care about the people. Joe Biden now prides himself of being the wokest president in American history, but those views are not his own. Biden in 2006 is a completely different person from Biden in 2023, highlighting his steep mental decline in recent years that prevents him from speaking clearly. “I can’t believe the American people can’t see through this,” Biden said in 2006.

Biden repeatedly states in this video that he firmly believes “marriage is between a man and a woman.” People can love who they want and society has progressed since this video. However, the current definition of progress has taken the gay agenda so far that it threatens basic rights for those in the gay community. We went from gay marriage to discussing childhood castration for kids who “feel” they are a different gender. There was gay and straight, man or women, and now we have 107 different gender identities. The website linked italicizes currently as there will be more than 107 in the years to come as people completely lose touch with reality. In comparison, there were only 72 genders to choose from last year.

There are endless issues facing our nation and the only reason they harp on the woke agenda and promote the CEI score is to create a cultural divide in America that has now become a cultural war. “We already have a law, the Defense of Marriage Act,” a clear-headed Biden said. “We’ve all voted — not, where I’ve voted, and others have said, look, marriage is between a man and a woman and states must respect that. Nobody’s violated that law, there’s been no challenge to that law. Why do we need a constitutional amendment? Marriage is between a man and a woman.” Biden admitted that no one was challenging anyone’s way of life and it was a misuse of Congress’ time to harp over such issues. Yet now something about LGBTQ comes up during every White House press briefing (Joe Biden never attends or addresses the people), and the nation is experiencing a mass mental health and identity crisis.

The Real Hidden Agenda – It’s Time to take the Red Pill


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted May 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Martin,
I’m gay and I agree with you on this transgender drivel, especially letting male-born athletes compete in women’s sports. It is becoming scary for those of us who are just gay. We are being thrown in the same category as this transgender agenda. I too have been to Thailand. The Ladyboys in Thailand are numerous and are accepted in society. They are smart enough to not make a political issue of it as is taking place here in America.

As for your view of Trump as the only hope to save our politics, I profoundly disagree. I think he is arrogant and ignorant. He doesn’t care if what he says if it is true or not.

CP

REPLY: With respect to Trump, you have to separate the individual from the politics. I understand people hate Trump. The media have spread this BECAUSE he is a threat to the Washington political establishment. Nonetheless, not even Trump can stop the decline and fall of Western Civilization.

People get offended by his crude statements at times. But at least you know what he really thinks. Is it better for a career politician to say everything you want to hear and then look at you as a stupid fool and do the opposite?

I have worked in Washington. There is ABSOLUTELY nobody who is a career politician in either party who will really stand up for the people. They are under pressure all the time to conform to the unelected party bosses.

I have met many heads of state in my 40 years. I have said the truth. Trump was the ONLY such person who ever impressed me as actually being human. His statement that he wanted to bring our boys home from Afghanistan because he was tired of writing letters to their parents to thank them for their son’s sacrifice of dying for his country. He actually said what are we doing there? They are fighting over borders for a 1,000 years. What difference will we make?

No head of state EVER spoke about the people. It was always about their policy. I have come to see that we are just the pawns – expendable pawns at that. There are always more of us to come. They look down upon the people as stupid scum. This whole digital currency thing is to track everything we do.

So you may find Trump’s statement and his arrogance at times as distasteful. We will never find someone perfect. But all of this is irrelevant. For there is NOBODY coming on some white horse to save the day. Trump’s quality was that he was NOT a career politician and what he was doing was for his personal legacy from ending wars to building a wall to protect our borders.

So all I can say is to those who hate Trump so much, you better look closely at the others for they have nothing but contempt for you.


Back in the ’70s, I hired a death mute – Danny. He taught me sign language and we could communicate and laugh together. I had a major surgeon as a client and he said that he probably could restore his hearing. I offered to pay for everything for him and he declined. He was afraid to hear sounds. He grew up that way and was in his late 20s and did not want to change. He taught me that what I thought would be a generous offer was really just me thinking that normal was the ability to hear. We cannot judge others by ourselves.

One of our staff who is black, was rather upset about the whole Black Lives Matter movement. She explained that it was being usurped by non-blacks. There was clearly a strange agenda behind the curtain. Soros and his defund the police agenda was to create civil unrest and cause the country to get prepared for this one-world government.

Ruth Bader Ginsberg was the first woman to make it to the Supreme Court. She was an advocate for women’s rights. But she came out and explained that the entire Abortion Movement was a fraud. They called it women’s rights and have indoctrinated many women who passionately take that position. They have been cleverly manipulated by the Gates crowd and the Rockefeller Foundation for their real goal was to reduce the population. Gate’s father started the whole Planned Parenthood and placed them in minority areas to reduce their population on a racist basis.  Like his father, Gates has targeted Africa to reduce population.

Now, the total number of people who identify as Transgender is 1.6 million out of a population of 331.9 million (2021). That is 0.0048%. Now, how has this become such a major issue? There is absolutely NO WAY this Transgender group had the money or the clout to turn this into such a huge issue. Diving deep behind the curtain and you will find, just like abortion, it is being funded for the purpose of reducing the population – and has NOTHING to do with Pride or gay rights. They are being exploited just as women were told it was their right to have an abortion – kill that baby and save the planet.

This Transgender nonsense is in fact destroying the right of the Gay Community because they are being thrown in with this Transgender nonsense advocating changing children’s sex without parental knowledge all before puberty. Let’s get real here. This agenda is to promote the reduction in the population and has NOTHING to do with the Gay Community or their rights to inclusion and equality.

This is always the same strategy – manipulating society to achieve its undeclared goal be it war, politics, or women/transgender rights. It is like LIFE Insurance which is really DEATH insurance. They sell fire, accident, theft, and hurricane insurance. But they could not sell DEATH insurance so they called it LIFE insurance and people brag how much they have.

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Remember the lockdowns? The whole COVID nonsense was a scam to end commuting and terminate offices bringing in virtual work from home all to reduce gas consumption. That was also a manipulation of society for climate change – not for health. There are people still to this day wearing masks driving alone in a car. They have been mentally damaged by these tactics.

NOTHING is ever what it seems. We are the fools and they are always using sophisticated tactics to manipulate society to achieve objectives that they will never reveal.

It’s just time to take the Red Pill and wake up if you EVER hope to survive as a viable human being or take the Blue Pill and live in your fantasy that government actually cares about you.

Turkey & the Election


Armstrong Economics Blog/Turkey Re-Posted May 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I’m not sure if you remember me. I was with the Islamic bank that our board ordered we were to open a branch in Turkey and we turned to you to create a hedge since the Turkish Lira was not a tradable market. You saved the bank a fortune and I think that was the first synthetic hedge anyone ever created back in the ’80s thanks to your computer correlations.

The press was claiming that Erdogan would lose and that would be a victory for democracy that would send a message to strongmen rulers in other parts of the world. Well, they got that one wrong and we have the same type of democracy that the rest of the West has – career politicians entrenched for life. Now the press is all flustered saying this victory for Mr Erdogan is sending a message to people like Modi in India as he faces his third general election within the next year that he too can win.

I remember the forecast you told the bank back then that come 2026, Turkey might break with NATO and align with Russia in hopes of restoring its former glory of the Ottoman Empire. Well, I thought that was rather way out there back then. Today, I see how that is now perhaps a 50/50 bet.

Has anything ever changed in your computer on that very long-term forecast since the other one you had said the British pound would fall from $2.40 to par and that seemed farfetched as well but the computer was correct.  Would you care to comment on Turkey?

ABD

ANSWER: Oh yes, I remember you. The ’80s were the wild times. If I am correct, we bumped into each other in the early ’90s in an elevator in London. No, nothing has changed. This was the turning point and it still appears to be building up but a break with NATO is still possible post-2024 increasing in intensity for 2026. Your memory is very good still. Erdogan is not a fool. He sees the Ukraine mess and how the West is deliberately creating WWIII. He sees the opportunity ahead even if he does not articulate it publicly. We have reached the 340-year mark from the 1683 attempt of the Ottoman Empire to conquer Europe. We are approaching the 4th wave from 1683 and that is 344 years. So we are on target and nothing has changed.

Russia Issued an Arrest Warrant for Lindsey Graham


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted May 29, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Russia has issued an arrest warrant for Lindsey Graham and quite honestly, it is not a surprise. Graham has NEVER seen a Russian he did not want dead. He has been one of the hardline Neocons who always is willing to throw American lives away for his constant agenda of conquering the world to promote the fake US version of democracy where we NEVER have a right to vote on anything important from debt ceilings to war.

Zelensky’s office edited the videotape and put two separate comments that Graham made together that “the Russians are dying” and U.S. military assistance to Ukraine is “the best money we’ve ever spent.” That’s what he gets for backing the most vile and corrupt government in Europe hellbent on creating World War III.

Communism fell in 1989. Neither the people of Russia nor China are interested in ever returning. Instead of promoting peace as the Roman Empire showed us how to do when everyone is interconnected economically, that is how peace is created. It is to everyone’s benefit to work together. Graham and McCain never paused even once. They continued the cold war. Graham has no problem sending American boys and girls to die in Europe for his dream of destroying Russia and razing it to the ground. NEVER have Graham or McCain EVER sought peace – just endless wars.

The Decline & Fall of the FBI?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ethics Re-Posted May 29, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

When James Comey just spoke to Trump, he took notes. When he formally interrogated Hillary, he claimed he never took notes. Those who question if there has already been a coup by the Deep State should rejoice in this testimony before the Home Land Security Council.

Musk Admits He Doesn’t Control Platform Censorship Decision making – Watch the Twitter Financials


Posted originally on the CTH on May 29, 2023 | Sundance 

Everything I have outlined about Twitter is going to surface as accurate over time.  There are two major elements: (1) DHS govt influence, now evidenced in the Twitter Files; and (2) the Twitter financial issues, which explain the recent hiring of Linda Yaccarino, which are soon to surface.

Yesterday, Elon Musk responded to criticism of Twitter censorship, vis-a-vis government demands, with this Tweet: “Please point out where we had an actual choice and we will reverse it.”

The Musk supporters are saying Musk has to comply with government demands if their national laws require it. However, that angle doesn’t take into consideration the choice that Musk/Twitter always have.

If the platform content is not approved by a government, and that govt then demands removal or censorship of that content, Twitter always has two options. One, to comply with the demand and block or restrict the user content (which is the direction they have taken); or two, stop allowing the platform to operate in the country demanding the censorship. It is the latter option that everyone always avoids mentioning.

However, the issue appears to be bigger and goes to the heart of the second aspect of Twitter we have noted.

Twitter is not viable as a business model, under the construct of its creation. Twitter operates on Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud, and Google Cloud.

Both big tech monopoly systems are extremely expensive and as a result Musk is stuck in contracts with AWS and Google that are major financial drains. Twitter does not operate any server infrastructure; the only asset that Twitter has on the tech engineering side is the software to operate the platform.

Absent any hardware infrastructure, Musk is vulnerable to the excessive costs of AWS & Google.

Keep in mind that all cloud-based systems are arguably U.S. government subsidized and end in server farms built and owned by the U.S. govt. Send something to a cloud-based system, or operate your tech through a cloud-based system, and you are essentially operating on govt hardware.

[This is the background #2 issue to Jack’s MAgic Coffee Shop.]

As you can see from this article in March 2023 [MUST READ], Musk was behind in his payments to Jeff Bezos (Amazon, AWS) but up to date on his payments to Google.

In essence, even as the article admits, Elon Musk is making payment decisions based on determinations of how best avoid advertising revenue interruptions.  Keep this in mind.

As you can see in the article, Musk is on the hook for contracts with AWS through 2025.  As written, “AWS is not willing to renegotiate the five-and-a-half year contract it signed with Twitter in 2020.”  That is before Musk took ownership. “That contract required Twitter to pay $510m over that period. It was signed when Twitter was expecting to move its main timeline over to AWS, but that never occurred (instead it hosts Twitter Spaces and other services), meaning that Twitter is not fully making use of the contract.”  So, Jeff Bezos (AWS) has a hook into Musk for roughly $100 million a year.

Additionally, “Twitter uses Google Cloud to a greater degree, with its own five-year contract worth $1bn. While Twitter is also looking to reduce its Google Cloud costs.”  That puts Musk on the hook for $200 million a year to Google, and Google controls the vast majority of advertising revenue on the web.

Each system, AWS and Google, represents a threat vector for Twitter (Musk), insofar as Twitter cannot operate without the cloud services each provider contributes to the data processing.

Absent his own data processing systems, Musk is vulnerable to the AWS/Google demands. $300,000,000/yr just for them.   Again, keep this in mind.

This is all part of the financial section I have written about extensively, and it has an impact on the content.

With this information as the overlay, how much freedom does Musk actually have with the platform when he is dependent on Google and Amazon to operate?  The same Google who controls the majority of his revenue (advertising) controls his data processing.  See the problem?

On content, look at what AWS did to Parler as an example of what they could do to Twitter if Musk is not compliant.  On revenue, consider how Google already has influence over the monetization of any platform on the internet; combined with terms and conditions for content control they can exert through their revenue power.

♦ Amazon (AWS, CIA, U.S. Govt) then becomes the primary control lever for rules and guidelines on content, the government compliance stuff.  How does it surface?  Musk saying, he must censor Turkish political opposition parties.

♦ Google then becomes the primary control lever for Twitter revenue.  How does that surface?  Musk hiring Linda Yaccarino as CEO of Twitter.

Can you see it now?

Do the irreconcilables start to reconcile?

Does Elon Musk saying, “Please point out where we had an actual choice and we will reverse it,” start to make sense now?

Given that Musk is on the hook for $300 million/yr, and that’s just one expense, I suspect Musk is closer to bankruptcy with Twitter than most people think.

The operating costs are too extreme for the business model.  They always were; however, I suspect the USG was indirectly subsidizing Twitter through data processing when Jack Dorsey had ownership.

The subsidy would be part of the private-public partnership, where the USG was benefitting from their ability to control public information and public opinion.

With the USG control via DHS and FBI now in sunlight (Twitter Files), the financial side has always been the second -and hidden- big picture element around Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop.

Bottom line, Musk has to make decisions through one prism, THE ECONOMICS.  Musk’s decision-making, pro freedom or not, is constrained by this financial dependency. Hence, a lot of the platform censorship elements remain (including some personnel) and now the outreach to appoint Google/WEF approved Linda Yaccarino in an effort to enhance the revenue.

As the end dates of the contract terms with AWS and Google start to come closer, decisions will have to be made if Musk wants a sustainable platform.  Either he builds out new hardware (extremely costly and likely cost prohibitive) or he looks for an existing platform that he might be able to merge with and operate.

If you are a platform owner of reasonable scale, and you control your own servers and data-processing, watch out for David Sacks (repping for Elon) to tap you on the shoulder.  Twitter is in a bind, or Musk needs to sink buckets of money he doesn’t have into building something.  The financial viability is now the primary prism, not principles of free speech.

On the content side Elon Musk needs content providers, which explains the thirst for Tucker Carlson and even the DeSantis launch to gain some operational impact.  That’s likely where his key tech advisor David Sacks again comes into play.  On the type of content, that’s where Linda Jaccarino steps in as the Google/WEF bridge to approved content revenue.

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