Governments Keep Their Fingers-Crossed


Fingers-Crossed-r

We must face the fact that we are in a slowing global economy and government simply have their fingers-crossed hoping thius nightmare just corrects itself. There is massive slowing of real income in Europe and the OECD has commented that this is creating a serious political problem for governments moving forward. Central Banks cannot stimulate because at the same time, we face a major crisis in government where their pensions are crowding out all private sector growth. The after-effects of BREXIT, then the USA Presidential election, and the elections in France and then Germany, are just the tip of the Iceberg so to speak because we face a future that is anything but stable. Interestingly, now six countries are looking at potential referendums in addition to the potential resurrection of Scottish Independence as well as Ireland. The response of Brussels has been to usher in revisions to cut off any right for other countries to hold referendums to leave the EU.

Banks Trying to Figure Out What Lies Ahead


LondonStkExchange

The big US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley — have large operations employing tens of thousands of people in the UK. They have historically set up their regulated businesses in Britain and then used its right to “passport” into the rest of the 28-member bloc. Lawyers are warning that after BREXIT, they would likely need a new legal home base, so they are preparing to shift at least some work to cities such as Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt.

Meanwhile, Continental banks in Europe are in trouble. The bad loans continue to pile up and the economy simply cannot recover with negative interest rates. What is ironic here is that UK banks are not in the euro so their reserves are not falling off the cliff as those banks using the euro as its base currency. The UK banks are safer than those in Continental Europe – the ultimate irony.

Capital Flows & the Shift to USA for Taxes


CapInflow-USA

Since the publication of the Panama Papers, the assets of the wealthy from around the world have been flowing into United States at a sharply increased pace. Tracking capital flows has revealed that capital outflows of liquidity from the EU have distinctly accelerated.

The United States is definitively becoming the replacement for Switzerland. The IRS has even ordered cash sales of real estate in Miami and New York to be investigated to reveal the actual beneficial owners behind corporations.

This trend should increase even if BREXIT is defeated for our models are warning of a rise in civil unrest throughout Europe, especially in that event. More member states will be driven to hold referendums by the demand of their people. The Brussels Government cannot be replaced by any democratic process in Europe and that is very dangerous for it leaves only one way for people to disagree and demand change — through means of force. Even the US Civil War was fought over the denial of the right to separate, which the Supreme Court of the United States maintains there is no “right” to break from the federal government.

Comey Delivers Scathing Rebuke of Hillary But Says No Indictment


Comey-James FBI-Portrait

To indict someone, the criteria is supposed to be “intent.” Comey has used that to pretend there is no evidence that Hillary “intentionally” erased anything. Comey also stated that Hillary’s lawyers erased her emails using a keyword search program and they did not “read” the emails. He added that he would not recommend charges against Hillary or her aides.

“Although we did not find clear evidence that Secretary Clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information, there is evidence that they were extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information,” Comey declared.

It was Comey who indicted Frank Quattrone for claiming he instructed his people to erase emails in his technology-industry banking group at Credit Suisse Group’s Credit Suisse First Boston, based upon a single email that read “clean up those files” in December 2000. That was more than enough for his “intent” requirement to obstruct justice. This further illustrates the double standard of justice for them vs. us.

Comey has said that he could not find anyone else who had been prosecuted for such a thing, but then added after clearing Hillary that this is not to say everyone in the government can do this or that they would not prosecute someone else for the same thing. Comey said,“[O]ur judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case.”

Comey presented a scathing rebuke of Hillary’s conduct that anyone else would have certainly been indicted for. For Obama to have announced in advance he would campaign for Hillary, it was clear that this was a cover-up and he knew the results before today. For Comey to say, “Although we did not find clear evidence [of any intentional misconduct] there is evidence that they were extremely careless of very sensitive, highly classified information.” It is the jury’s role to determine if there is any evidence and the case should have been presented for a Grand Jury to decide if she should have been indicted. That, of course, is off limits as well.

Comey went on to all but acknowledge that Russia hacked Hillary’s emails:

“With respect to potential computer intrusion by hostile actors, we did not find direct evidence that Secretary Clinton’s personal e-mail domain, in its various configurations since 2009, was successfully hacked. But, given the nature of the system and of the actors potentially involved, we assess that we would be unlikely to see such direct evidence. We do assess that hostile actors gained access to the private commercial e-mail accounts of people with whom Secretary Clinton was in regular contact from her personal account. We also assess that Secretary Clinton’s use of a personal e-mail domain was both known by a large number of people and readily apparent. She also used her personal e-mail extensively while outside the United States, including sending and receiving work-related e-mails in the territory of sophisticated adversaries. Given that combination of factors, we assess it is possible that hostile actors gained access to Secretary Clinton’s personal e-mail account.”

For Comey to claim neither the Department of Justice nor the White House knew what he was going to announce, seriously undermines his trustworthiness in this matter. Of course, Obama knew or he would not have scheduled to campaign for Hillary since, if indicted, she would have had to be on bail to stay out of jail to even campaign. This is by no means credible. But nobody would have expected Hillary to be indicted when the Democrats control the executive branch. Had Hillary been indicted, she could not have run for office, for even that statute says such a person would be disqualified for such an office. The entire election would have been a fiasco and the Democratic Party would have collapsed. This is what Bernie was holding out for and why he had his talk with Obama who informed him forget it — there would be no indictment for Hillary.

“From the group of 30,000 e-mails returned to the State Department, 110 e-mails in 52 e-mail chains have been determined by the owning agency to contain classified information at the time they were sent or received. Eight of those chains contained information that was Top Secret at the time they were sent; 36 chains contained Secret information at the time; and eight contained Confidential information, which is the lowest level of classification. Separate from those, about 2,000 additional e-mails were “up-classified” to make them Confidential; the information in those had not been classified at the time the e-mails were sent,” Comey said.

Then, Comey contradicted Lynch in making it clear that the final decision was her’s: “As a result, although the Department of Justice makes final decisions on matters like this, we are expressing to Justice our view that no charges are appropriate in this case.”

TR01072002 - No Criminal Description
 James Comey was the chief prosecutor in the Southern District of New York between 2003 and 2005. He had no problem keeping me in Federal Prison on contempt of court without any charges, indictment, or a civil complaint describing any crime whatsoever that they even admitted openly in court. There were never any charges or complaint filed, and they publicly stated, “[T]here is no description of criminal liability.” Yet, Comey allowed me to be held in prison, entirely arbitrarily, with absolutely nothing whatsoever; Comey completely violated my civil rights, those of my family, and all 240 employees. So he is not someone who upholds the Constitution when it goes against government or the banks. As they say, the Department of Justice is really “Just Us” in reality. He has proven that once again.

HSBC Gag Cover

Comey also allowed a LIFETIME GAG ORDER on me to prevent me from providing any assistance to my clients in Japan to sue the bankers. Now the State Department has asked for a two-year stay in turning over any of Hillary’s emails. Why  would they do that if there is nothing criminal? This only proves that this is a cover-up, as always, because the Democratic Party cannot allow Hillary to go down for they would lose everything. Sorry, but Comey has a track record of defending the banks even when they stole $1 billion and pleaded criminally guilty before having to pay them back. He kept me in prison on contempt to turn over assets for a “possible” restitution, but when I got into the Supreme Court, I was released and no such charges were ever filed nor did I ever have any restitution. They then tried to prevent “The Forecaster” from being shown in the USA.

So much for any honesty from the Department of Justice. It is the Department of “Just Us,” as they say.

Free Market v Central Bank


IntRate-Manipulate

We are beginning to see interest rates rise globally in the free market. After BREXIT exposed the crisis in Europe, the rates began to rise in the peripherals. That will move closer toward the core. The Fed will respond only when the capital sees what is unfolding in Europe and shifts to the States. The US will be the last to see rates rise. The Fed has recognized that it needs to raise rates to prevent a pension crisis, but the first step would be to stop paying interest on excess reserves. That would conform to a rate raise.

Nigel Farage Resigns as Head of UKIP


Farage Vote to Leave

It is a shame, but Nigel Farage is standing down as leader of the UK Independence Party. Nigel came from the real world and never had a desire to be a career politician. He has stated that he had done his “bit” following the UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU. “The victory for the ‘Leave’ side in the referendum means that my political ambition has been achieved.” He said that leading the UKIP was “tough at times” but “all worth it.” He added that Britain now needs a “Brexit prime minister.” He continued: “I have never been, and I have never wanted to be, a career politician. My aim in being in politics was to get Britain out of the European Union.”  He added: “So I feel it’s right that I should now stand aside as leader of UKIP”.

Meanwhile, Tony Blair, the ultimate anti-democratic politician, keep saying that more than 1 million people have changed their minds and Britain should not go through with BREXIT. He would even surrender the Queen. He is living the Euro dream would would surrender the pound and all independence to enslave the British to a new government they could never have a right to vote in to ever change. People like him just assume to know what’s best that career politicians should rule and the people are too stupid to have any influence.

Nigel will be sorely missed. It is a personal battle, absolutely. But with people like Blair hanging around in the wings, the job may not be done to save Britain. It is the people who love telling every one else what they will be allowed to do who want power, and will never resign it. These career politicians are no different than any monarch who also abused the people – let them eat cake!

George Carlin Was Right: “The Big Club”…


Carlin is right the country is owned but sometimes the people wake up and realize what has been done and there are a lot of us and only a few of them! That is why they are in a panic about our guns — don’t ever give them up for if you do you will very shortly be one of their slaves!

Declining Pound Savior of Britain


IBBPVA-W 7-3-2016

QUESTION: Marty
It looks like Carney and Osborne are talking the pound down in order to frighten people.

Only one of their prophesies have come true – the lower value of sterling.
But it is unhelpful that they continue to be negative – even though they’ve proved to have been wrong on all the other things [cost of borrowing, asset prices, the UK deficit, cancellation of investments].

I fear [being a Brit] that too much unwarranted negativity from their position of power will take the pound down too far. Do you agree that can achieve that and that they, representing the establishment, are trying to win back some of the lost ground? I would say that is treason [not to carney as he’s a Canadian. I’d tell him to go home].

Thanks
JF, Manchester

ANSWER: The reason “value” investing and “fair value” theories fail is because markets ALWAYS over shoot and under shoot. Our next real zone for the pound is in the mid 120 level. However, ironically, European concepts of currency value is SERIOUSLY WRONG. Post-World War II, European politicians used the rise in their currencies as proof that they did a good job. That installed this concept that a strong currency was good for the economy which in fact if you are concerned about trade, you want a weak currency. The entire reason the Swiss put a peg on to the euro was because the rise in the franc was reducing exports and major companies threatened to leave.

Mother-MerkelThe decline in the pound will BOOST British exports and have exactly the opposite effect helping the British economy. The EU is doomed. Over taxes, over regulated and it has no meaningful democratic process. Worse still, just as Merkel by herself tried to help her negative image because of her harsh dealings with Greece wanted to appear reasonable, she invited the refugees in without any right of other countries to object. She made a decision as Germany, but it automatically impacts all of Europe. Under the EU, no such power should be allowed if all governments must suffer because of one leader.

The pound will drop to penetrate the $1 par level probably no later than 2018. With the political chaos of French and German elections next year, that decline can take place sooner than later. But this is what will force a monetary reform as early as 2018. The rise in the dollar will reduce US exports and that will put political pressure in the States for reform not to mention a debt crisis in emerging markets.

The peak in bonds appears to be in place. We are seeing the rates rise already in the peripheral markets. This will spread from the peripherals in toward the core. So Southern European rates will rise faster than German but when capital figures out the crisis is the EU, then German rates will rise. The Federal rates in the USA will be the LAST to rise because the initial shock will be foreign capital fleeing to the States.

The remarks of British politicians are to be seen in their context of this false perception that a strong currency is good. You hear Trump criticizing China as a “currency manipulator” implying they lower the value of their currency to increase trade. As the pound declines, this will save British jobs – it’s a good thing; not bad.

Fate of the Euro


Euro Hanging

QUESTION: Dear Mr Armstrong.
I attended the Berlin conference and already enrolled for Orlando as well. I have a question regarding the EURO. It is obvious that the EU cannot be sustained as is. I think, so far, I do understand the decline of the EURO. We see it happen. But Germany and France are vigorously protecting their dream. However voices are louder for Italy to abandon the EURO, with probably more countries to follow and but with Germany and France clinging on. With weaker countries leaving, isn’t Euro starting to look more and more like a Deutsch Mark?
My question is; is the anticipated decline in the EURO to below par to the dollar the only scenario, or can the EURO recover once the weaker countries are out?
Thanks you for all you do.

FB

ANSWER: The Euro cannot become the Deutsche Mark for at the end of the day there are also conflicts between Germany and France. As I have stated before, the Federal Reserve was set up with each branch maintaining its own interest rate. That enabled a single currency to survive. The pressure was then contained in the interest rates. It was FDR who seized the Federal Reserve and imposed a single national interest rate. That was OK to work through World War II, but ever since, the pressures have not been offset in interest rates but in local economies. We always called it the New York/Texas arbitrage. The Fed would raise rate to fight speculation in stocks in NYC while putting farmers into bankruptcy. The original design was proper. What FDR created was merely copied by the EU. Hence, we see that the promises of the Euro creating one interest rates for all failed. The rates have been rising in the peripheral members.

The negative interest rates are undermining pensions throughout Europe. This will start to lead to failure in 2017. There is just no possible way these people even understand what they have done. For the Euro to survive, that would still mean the subordination of some economic conditions in one member for the benefit of another.

Elitism, Globalism, Corporatism, Bureaucrats and Two Current Senators….


This speech and the following link show exactly what is wrong with our political/business system system today. When governments get their hands in anything they always screw it up, while telling us they are fixing everything and while they end up with all the wealth; now what is wrong with that?