Posted originally on Jan 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, thank you because you are the lone voice calling to us in Europe, where free speech is dying quickly. Others are afraid to say what you point out, even if they see it themselves. Some try to dismiss you but never address what you say, only who you are.

Many of us in Europe greatly respect your courage and independence. You will be remembered by history when this all comes to an end.

RVH

REPLY: Thank you. I learned back in 1985 when I went to lunch with one of the heads of a major bank in Geneva. He explained to me back then why everyone was using my firm. He said you do not care if the dollar goes up or down. He explained there were no European FX analysts because it was a political issue in Europe since politicians used the rise in the currency to validate their performance. Saying the currency would decline became a political statement.

Today, if an analyst at a major bank said the euro would crash, the ECB would be on the phone instructing that institution to fire them. That was explained to me back in 1985. It has only progressed since then, and now it is becoming criminal to simply oppose the government under the label of far-right or hate speech. An AfD victory will help to push the euro over the edge and threaten the WOKE agenda of the EU leadership.

Estonia’s economy was booming, but after several years of GDP growth at or close to 10%, the expansion rate collapsed and caused a negative contraction. The 2007-2010 economic recession was not such a soft landing. The sharp slowdown in the Estonian economy that began in 2007 is now undeniable. They jailed an economist for saying it would turn down. If I went to London today, Starmer would probably throw me in prison for something I said 10 years ago.

This is merely a reflection that the economy is turning down, and the Sovereign Debt Crisis is starting to come to a head. Trump at least understands debt. He may be called many names, but the issue will come to light, and he at least comprehends a debt crisis, whereas our politicians assume this is how they run the government, and someone will always buy their debt. When they can’t sell the new debt to pay off the old, everything will come crashing down. This is starting to come to a head this year, going into 2026. They will impose capital controls in Europe. They are trying speech controls first.

Olaf Scholz assumed office in December 2021. Just look at the German bond market. It went into a panic decline in 2022. Europe is going to have a debt crisis really beginning to surface next year. But more and more people are going to take notice this year.

The polls still show that the Union (CDU/CSU) is leading with an average of 30%, while the second strongest is the AfD, running about 21%. The next election will be on February 23rd, 2025.

We can see that we do have a Panic Cycle the week leading into the election that weekend. Then, there is choppiness for the following 3 weeks with a string of Directional Changes.

Alice Weidel of the AFD delivered a speech that hit home in Germany, exposing Scholz and his left-green authoritarian seizure of Germany. She explained that while migrants were attacking our people, Scholz had tried to silence the opposition and had even attempted to ban the AfD. She said: “Someone who thinks so authoritarian should not be the Chancellor of Germany.”

We show a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle due in February that lines up with the German election. An AfD victory can send the dollar higher and start to unwind the Euro. It is now 26 years since the birth of the euro. Cyclically, this is just time for the stress to emerge since it is unlikely that the euro will still exist by 2030 – 31 years from its creation.