Tag Archives: Ethics

Jul 18 2022

Former Obama Economic Advisor Says Best Way to Deal with Inflation is to Raise Taxes and Plunge Main Street into a Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance 

Jason Furman is the former Chairman of the National Economic Council under Barack Obama; he is currently a professor at Harvard teaching economics.   If you ever wondered why the economy under Obama included the weakest economic recovery in history, the advice of Furman might explain it.

In an interview with CBS this morning, Jason Furman says the best way to get inflation under control is to raise taxes and stop people from spending money.  This approach will impact the demand side of the economy and as a result, with no one purchasing stuff, it will lower prices.   Seriously, no joke, he said this. WATCH:

Jason Furm: …”Congress should be trying to do their part and helping out if they can cut the deficit, including raising taxes on high income households, that would reduce a bit of spending in the economy, it would cool the economy down a little bit, and actually take some pressure off the Fed.”…

Create a deeper recession to control inflation, brilliant!

Like I have been pointing out for months, these ideologues believe inflation is being driven by the demand side, by consumers purchasing too much.  They pretend not to know it is the supply-side issue of energy policy that is driving the CORE inflation they seek to reduce.

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Harvard Economics Professor Jason Furman reminds me of this:

Jul 14 2022

Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates 1 Percent Claiming Excess Demand in Economy is Driving Inflation


Posted originally on the Conservative tree House on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

Folks, the Build Back Better western alliance are fully vested in the pretending game.  It is just one big insufferable game of pretending, and the citizens of the western government powers, You and Me, are the victims.

Seriously, it’s stunning, yet oddly not surprising, that the same multinational forces who created the global inflation crisis as a result of following the World Economic Forum spending agenda, are now claiming the global economy is simply too hot, too successful, there is just too much demand, and that justifies their raising of interest rates:

OTTAWA, July 13 (Reuters)– The Bank of Canada surprised on Wednesday with a full-percentage-point increase to its policy rate, a super-sized hike last seen in 1998, citing “higher and more persistent” inflation and the increased risk of those price gains becoming entrenched.

The central bank, in a regular rate decision, raised its policy rate to 2.5% from 1.5%, and said more hikes would be needed. The move was more forceful than the 75-basis point increase economists and money markets had forecast.

….”With the economy clearly in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist for longer, the Governing Council decided to front-load the path to higher interest rates,” the bank said. [LINK]

This is the actual justification from the Bank of Canada.

Read it carefully: “With the economy clearly in excess demand.”

Yes folks, I have always said that in order to retain their ideological positions, the leftists in control of policy have to pretend not to know things.  That right there is the Bank of Canada pretending not to know the Canadian economy is contracting.  Exactly the same as Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chairman Powell pretending not to know the U.S. economy is contracting.

Do you see what happened, and what they are doing?

The Build Back Better energy policy of the collective western governments’ is driving supply side inflation.  It’s the new climate change energy policy, all being implemented by the same institutional elements, that is creating the massive increases in overall prices.

It’s the energy policy driving inflation, NOT consumer DEMAND.

The western multinationals, government and multinational/central banks, all carry the same ideological mindset.  All of them are collectively supporting the Build Back Better agenda from execution of infrastructure shifts to their direct control over ESG investment in only “sustainable energy” projects.

The fascist assembly of western government and western banks working together to create this great international game of pretending. All of it so they do not have to admit their ideological climate agenda is destroying economies.   Thus, to keep up the pretense, they raise interest rates into a contracting economy.  This is why I keep saying the pretense is what’s going to end up starving people, creating desperation and ultimately killing people.

Energy demand is no different today than it was pre-pandemic 2018 and 2019.  It’s the energy supply, and all of the downstream industrial energy processes that are being blocked, that has created the supply-side issue.

The post-pandemic Build Back Better agenda has shifted the entire energy sector and created all of these inflationary outcomes.

The World Economic Forum, the Bank of Canada, central banks in Europe and Secretary Janet Yellen and Chairman Jerome Powell are all pretending not to know these issues are outcomes of energy policy.  The collective western nations all took the same path.  All of the outcomes are identical, and now all of their denials and pretenses are being maintained in a collective justification filled with bullshit.

Jul 14 2022

June Inflation Jumps 1.3 Percent, Annual Inflation Rate Increases to 9.1 Percent


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 13, 2022 | Sundance

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) [DATA HERE] showing yet another “surprising” increase in overall inflation.  For the month of June overall inflation increased 1.3% bringing the annual rate of inflation to 9.1% as calculated.

Economists and financial pundits are “shocked”, “surprised” and the proverbial “unexpected” is running amok again amid the typeset.  The reality of Joe Biden energy policy being the origin of our current inflation crisis is being avoided at all costs by the pretenders.  The federal reserve raising interest rates can only impact the demand side, but it’s the supply side (total energy policy) creating the problem.  Table-A shows the overview.

(CNBC) – […] The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services related to the cost of living, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked the fastest pace for inflation going back to November 1981.

[…] “U.S. inflation is above 9%, but it is the breadth of the price pressures that is really concerning for the Federal Reserve.” said James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist. “With supply conditions showing little sign of improvement the onus is the on the Fed to hit the brakes via higher rates to allow demand to better match supply conditions. The recession threat is rising.” (read more)

If you dig into the details, the inflation picture shows just how deep the energy policy is hitting.  Everything is impacted by Joe Biden’s radical energy policy.  Table-1 breaks down the data a bit more specifically.  However, even this data is skewed by the BLS putting a weighting factor on the importance.

♦ The rate of annualized inflation for natural gas is now running at almost 100%.  Meaning if things continue, the current price will double again by this time next year.

♦ The rate of annualized inflation for gasoline is running at 134%.

♦ The annualized rate of energy inflation overall is running at 90%.

These are the results of the people behind Joe Biden implementing the Green New Deal program by executive fiat.

Also, keep in mind the current increases in farming costs at the field have yet to reach wholesale and retail.  The fertilizer, oil, diesel, packaging, transportation and energy costs at the field will not arrive to the fork until later this fall.  That is when food inflation will surpass energy inflation.

Current cattlemen and ranchers are finding it more cost-effective, due to drought and high feed costs, to take their cattle to slaughter.  There is a temporary drop in beef prices for the next several weeks before the supply roller coaster sets up a scenario for massive increases in beef costs this winter.  Consider buying and freezing now for use later this year and into the winter. Try to buy directly from cattle ranchers.

Later this year the next wave (#3) of food inflation will surpass the last two waves.  Things will get ugly because there are also predictably shortages of food coming.  Higher farm costs and global food supply shortages equals much, much higher U.S. prices.   Prepare.

Jul 13 2022

U.S. Homebuyer Contract Cancellations Surge to 15 Percent in June, Highest Ever Recorded Sans Pandemic


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 12, 2022 | Sundance

A slowdown in the housing market is being identified as the primary cause of a significant increase in cancelled homebuyer contracts in the month of June.  Bloomberg Report Here and Redfin Report Here.  It would appear the inflated housing bubble has popped.

According to the data 60,000 home sales were cancelled while under contract in June, that represents 14.9% of all contracts cancelled by the buyer before the transaction closed.  If you take out the forced cancellations due to the pandemic, a 15% cancellation rate equals the highest monthly cancellation rate ever recorded.

The economy is contracting, economic activity and consumer purchases have stopped, and the contraction is now fast and sudden.

(Redfin) – Nationwide, roughly 60,000 home-purchase agreements fell through in June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage on record with the exception of March and April 2020, when the housing market all but ground to a halt due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. It compares with 12.7% a month earlier and 11.2% a year earlier.

This is according to a Redfin analysis of MLS data going back through 2017. Please note that homes that fell out of contract during a given month didn’t necessarily go under contract the same month. For example, a home that fell out of contract in June could have gone under contract in May.

“The slowdown in housing-market competition is giving homebuyers room to negotiate, which is one reason more of them are backing out of deals,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Buyers are increasingly keeping rather than waiving inspection and appraisal contingencies. That gives them the flexibility to call the deal off if issues arise during the homebuying process.”

Marr continued: “Rising mortgage rates are also forcing some buyers to cancel home purchases. If rates were at 5% when you made an offer, but reached 5.8% by the time the deal was set to close, you may no longer be able to afford that home or you may no longer qualify for a loan.” (read more)

Now, keep in mind that contract cancellations can also be attributed to a hot housing market, where purchasing hysteria and bidding wars end up being factors in the contracts.  Some anxious buyers make out-of-town offers without even seeing the house, then use contract exits -contingencies- to cancel the purchase if the home is ultimately not up to their standard.

In my opinion the spike in cancellations is a blend of the two aspects which indicate the apex of home purchasing is behind us.  The bubble popped.

Home values are now declining as more available inventory starts to fill up the real estate market.  Again, everything is local and regional depending on a myriad of issues; however, if we are looking at it from a macro level, the booming housing market is now over.

City and county tax rates will now benefit from the overinflated real estate sales data.  Real estate tax bills (a backward-looking metric) will go up as the curve on home valuation actually starts to drop and drop quickly.

If you did not purchase a home this year, you have not lost money.  If you did purchase a home this year, the dropping market will erase tangible wealth.

Redfin also has the top metro-markets for cancellations:

(Source, with Expanded List)

CBS says the best way to survive the Biden economy is not to buy stuff, and young adults should stay living with mom and dad. WATCH:

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Jul 12 2022

I Feel Like I’m On A Debt Treadmill And It’s Never Ending!


The Ramsey Show – Highlights  Published originally on Rumble on  July 8, 2022

I Feel Like I’m On A Debt Treadmill And It’s Never Ending!
Subscribe and never miss a new highlight from The Ramsey Show: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheRamseyShow?sub_confirmation=1

Jun 28 2022

Europe Argues with Itself About Allowing Developing Countries to Make Their Own Fertilizer, EU Climate Agenda Does Not Align with Food Needs of Third-World


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance

Watch how this plays out in the global cleaving.  Watch closely…

The stresses of retaining climate ideology are beginning to surface in the EU and ‘western nations.’  The developing world needs fertilizer quickly, or their twice annual harvests will not produce enough to feed their population.  However, the EU does not want the developing world to create their own fertilizer because it would mean using an energy source the EU no longer supports.

The result within the G7, G20, World Economic Forum, multinational corporations and EU government, is a debate over whether it is better for people to starve, or to allow developing countries to manufacture fertilizer to feed themselves.   Some in the EU and western alliance say let the people die, climate is more important.  Others, seem to be saying if they allow mass starvation just to retain their climate ideology, they may lose influence in the world.  The debate rages on.

(Reuters) – The European Union is divided on how to help poorer nations fight a growing food crisis and address shortages of fertilizers caused by the war in Ukraine, with some fearing a plan to invest in plants in Africa would clash with EU green goals.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a global food crisis and fears of worse to come because of a drop in grain exports from Ukraine and a spike in prices of chemical fertilizers, of which Russia and Belarus are major producers.  [SD NOTE: This is false.  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not create a global food crisis, the Western Alliance & NATO sanctions did – Important distinction] 

The EU has for weeks tried to help its poorer neighbours in Africa and the Middle East to weather the crisis by offering them fresh funds, while trying to convince them EU sanctions against Moscow and Minsk are not to be blamed for the food emergency.

At a summit of EU leaders later this week, the EU was planning a new initiative that would structurally decrease poorer nations’ reliance on Russian fertilisers by helping them develop their own fertiliser plants.

But at a meeting with EU envoys last week, the EU Commission explicitly opposed the text, warning that supporting fertiliser production in developing nations would be inconsistent with the EU energy and environment policies, officials said.

The production of chemical fertilisers has a big impact on the environment and requires large amounts of energy. However, they are crucially effective in boosting agriculture output.  (read more)

This is globalism and elitism in its full glory.  Western politicians, along with multinational corporations, in control of global trade and finance are deciding who lives and who dies according to their climate change ideology.   This is how important their carbon trading scheme is to them.

Liberalism or modern totalitarian leftism is on display as the great global cleaving continues.

The elites in western government think they still have the power to control the rest of the world.  However, it is the absence of food that changes things.  People are starting to realize that western ideology, as manifest in modern globalism, is dangerous.  The Davos crowd is willing to kill millions if that is what it takes to retain their climate change ideology.

Keep watching this closely.  The multinational U.S. media will eventually bury the issue and try to protect the ruling class.

For me personally, the most frustrating part of this global dynamic -and this specific moment in history- is the absence of any opposition voice in the United States who can articulate these issues loudly in their arguments.

The absence of any political leader using this atomic sledgehammer to attack and destroy the ideology of the professional political left is blood-boiling.   Where are the leaders of nationalism who can call out the hypocrisy of the globalists?

The elite and self-described ruling class have never been as vulnerable as they are right now.  This is the moment to hit them hard and destroy their toxic ideology for generations.  Where is the articulate political opposition?

Where is the voice that can call these insufferable elites to task, using their own words and policy against them?

I digress…

Consider what is happening against this 15-year-old reminder:

All starts getting clearer, no?

Jun 28 2022

Freedom Wins, Supreme Court Sides with High School Coach Fired for Praying on Field After Games


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 27, 2022 | Sundance

The Supreme Court has ruled in favor of Joseph Kennedy [Full Ruling Here] saying the Bremerton school district in Washington state was wrong to fire him for praying after football games with players of both teams.  By a vote of 6-3, the justices ruled that Coach Joseph Kennedy’s conduct was protected by the First Amendment.

In 2015, Kennedy had been a part-time football coach at Bremerton High School for seven years. Coach Kennedy would pray at midfield after each game, alone, with players and with players of the opposing team joining him. When the school district learned about Kennedy’s prayers, they told him to stop. Kennedy refused, and despite wide support from parents and the community the district fired him.

Justice Neil Gorsuch delivered the court’s opinion and was joined in full by Chief Justice John Roberts, Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh. Gorsuch explained that the government’s only real justification for its decision to fire Kennedy “rested on a mistaken view that it had a duty to ferret out and suppress religious observances even as it allows comparable secular speech. The Constitution,” Gorsuch concluded, “neither mandates nor tolerates that kind of discrimination.”

(Via Christian Post) […] “Kennedy prayed during a period when school employees were free to speak with a friend, call for a reservation at a restaurant, check email, or attend to other personal matters. He offered his prayers quietly while his students were otherwise occupied. Still, the Bremerton School District disciplined him anyway,” wrote Gorsuch. 

“Both the Free Exercise and Free Speech Clauses of the First Amendment protect expressions like Mr. Kennedy’s … The Constitution and the best of our traditions counsel mutual respect and tolerance, not censorship and suppression, for religious and nonreligious views alike.”

In response to today’s opinion, Kennedy said, “This is just so awesome. All I’ve ever wanted was to be back on the field with my guys. I am incredibly grateful to the Supreme Court, my fantastic legal team, and everyone who has supported us. I thank God for answering our prayers and sustaining my family through this long battle.”

Kelly Shackelford, president, CEO and chief counsel for First Liberty, a religious liberty law firm based in Plano, Texas, which represented Kennedy, hailed the court’s decision as a “tremendous victory for Coach Kennedy and religious liberty for all Americans.” (more)

“For where two or three gather in my name, there am I with them.” 

~ Matthew 18:20

“Will you pray with me?” or “will you allow me to pray with you?”  These are examples of the strongest proactive affirmations of fellowship, love and faith you can bring to any encounter.  Prayer works.

However, it is not enough to simply to stop and pray, we should immediately affirm the intent of the moment.  We should pause, gather or assemble and pray in His name. That is where the Spirit of Jesus will manifest.   Seek to gather with others in the name of Jesus and experience His presence in the moments of life.

Fellowship is critical.

There are many biblical commands concerning “one another” because God does not want us to be alone.  Isolation and/or aloneness is not living; they can be painful and harmful to our spirit.  Burdens weigh most when carried alone.

Fellowship is the connective tissue that brings life to our journey.  When you feel hardship, pray.  When you see hardship, pray. When you find hardship in another, pray.

There is no level of experience needed for prayer, nor is there an apprenticeship for faith.  While living, just pay attention.  When you see a burden reach out, feel, connect, and begin… “Dear God,”….. the rest will follow.

Jun 19 2022

Happy Father’s Day


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 19, 2022 | Menagerie

It takes a man to to be a real father, in ways so much more important than biological contributions. Once upon a time, most men learned and valued the responsibilities they would assume with the birth of a child, and they planned and prepared for it. Real men were usually not only providers, protectors, but also the primary source of power and strength in a secure family. They were often the first to nudge the chicks out of the nest, to push them to be perfect, and to make sure they were prepared for life, and for a harsh world.

How times have changed.

Here at the Treehouse we talk a lot about politics and how to regain what we’ve lost, not so much politically, but the kind of people we are, the kind of nation we have become. I see a lot of good ideas come across these pages, from involvement in local politics and voting precincts to driving people to the polls, to active involvement in party politics.

I don’t see a lot of talk about the long term prospects, and real change. How about back to the basics fatherhood? How about helping children be secure in a safe and loving family? How about teaching little boys to mow grass and change tires and paint their room, as well as keep that room clean and iron a shirt? Yes, iron a shirt, because presentation and neatness still matter whether you like it or not.

How about teaching them that it really is okay to be a man, and they don’t need any woman to tell them the boundaries on their masculinity, as long as it is a healthy, protective, giving, legitimately strong, real masculinity? How about teaching your daughters what exactly they should expect, no, demand, in a man they contemplate a serious relationship with?

How about making sure you teach your children Christian values and principles and make church services as big a priority as that ballgame?

From last year’s post, I’d like to copy some of my thoughts, because I just can never find finer examples of fatherhood than my husband and father in law. Some things bear repeating.

I have been privileged to know some of the best fathers of our time, and especially would like to mention my appreciation and pride for those in my own life who have made the most difference to me and our family.

I was blessed to marry a man who became a wonderful father to our three boys. My sons are three of the best dads out there, under really challenging circumstances. Two of them have step children they love and cherish, nurture and guide.

My father in law was an epic man among men. He had great faults but his virtues eclipsed them. He was a man of immense strength, strength of mind, character, body, and above all else, faith. His heart was even bigger than his booming laugh.

If I had a fortune I would confidently place a wager that no one could ever say he backed down from his principles or failed to do what he saw as right in the face of any test. Not one time, not ever. Good or bad, hard or easy, he stood in the face of any challenge to right as he believed it to be.

Of course he passed those traits on to his children, all eight of them, and he influenced every one who entered his orbit with the sheer force of his beliefs and his do or die attitude. He was one of only a few people I’ve personally known who really would give you the shirt off of his back.

He had many roles in life, many skills, a man who could do many things, fix almost anything that needed fixing, a voracious reader, self taught on many things with a questing mind and staggering intellect. He knew the Bible cover to cover and could always offer compelling proofs for his beliefs.

Of all those  roles, the one most who knew him saw him most at home in, and the one I believe he most identified as, was Daddy.

Here’s to you Jr. Of all the people I look forward to spending eternity with, laughing with, loving with, you are up there. I so look forward to one of your big enthusiastic hugs again.

Jun 19 2022

Happy Father’s Day


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Jun 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Jun 17 2022

There it is, Samsung Signal Flare, Demand Side Contraction, Inventories Too High, Request Suppliers Stall Shipments


Posted originally on the conservative tree house June 16, 2022 | Sundance 

We have been waiting for the non-essential durable goods side of the manufacturing sector to start showing evidence of demand side contraction in consumer purchases.  There have been subtle sector-by-sector indicators of consumer spending shifts for several months; however, today we get the direct evidence from Samsung.

Samsung is one of the leading manufacturers of consumer electronics and products that require chips.  For three months the electronics sector has shown background signals that inventory was not moving.  One of the more recent indicators of a demand side contraction was the lack of upward price pressure inside the electronics sector.  Essentially, consumers are not purchasing the current inventory, so prices are actually dropping in this segment.  [SEE TABLE 2, CPI Chart]:

Despite overall inflation of 8.6% within the CPI, deep inside the category indexes you will note that electronic prices are actually dropping.  Televisions -9.5%, Video equipment -4.3%, etc.  Video and audio products overall dropped in price 1.4% for May, and dropped 5.2% year-over-year.

The supply chain in this sector is lengthy. Meaning inventory builds slowly as consumers stop purchasing in the USA.  Retail store inventory turns slow, store inventory climbs, then warehouses inventories climb as stores do not need product. The negative boxcar effect travels back to the manufacturer overseas over the course of several purchase cycles.  Eventually, everyone within the sector is telling the supplier we do not need product.  Then the manufacturer has to quickly slowdown raw material.

Due to lengthy supply chains, including trans-pacific shipments, the process to stop deliveries in this electronic goods sector is around 90-days before the drop in retail sales reaches the manufacturer to stop production.  Here is the announcement from Samsung:

TAIPEI/ SEOUL — Samsung Electronics is temporarily halting new procurement orders and asking multiple suppliers to delay or reduce shipments of components and parts for several weeks due to swelling inventories and global inflation concerns, sources have told Nikkei Asia.

The notification by the South Korean tech titan applies to components for multiple key product lines, including TVs, home appliances and smartphones, four people familiar with the situation said, and the postponement of orders involves a wide range of components across chips, electronics parts and final product packages.

The move by Samsung, the world’s No. 1 smartphone and TV maker and one of the leading home appliance providers, is the latest sign that electronics makers are pessimistic about the economic outlook amid global inflation risks.

Samsung told suppliers that the company needs to closely review its inventory levels of both components and final products to ensure stock on hand is manageable, according to the sources. Two people said the move will last until the end of July. One of the people said shipments from that source’s company have not been completely halted but the volume of the company’s planned shipment to Samsung for July has been slashed by 50%.

Samsung’s inventory assets reached 47.6 trillion won ($36.9 billion) at the end of March, up from 41.4 trillion won in December, according to its first quarter earnings report. The ratio of inventory assets to total assets also jumped to 10.8% from 9.7% during the same period. (read more)

Various Wall Street economists and MSM pundits have stated, erroneously – and many intentionally, there has been no evidence of a demand side contraction.  However, CTH reviews of the data have shown exactly the opposite.  There are multiple indicators of demand side contraction, including drops in retail sales units that goes all the way back to last holiday season.

Yesterday the U.S. Dept of Commerce released the May retail sales [pdf DATA HERE], showing a 0.3% drop in retail sales for the month.

Retail sales -as measured in units purchased- have been in a contracting position since June of 2021.  When the current data shows a drop of -0.3% in May, the actual drop in retail sales is much, much greater.  The dept of commerce calculates retail sales in dollars.  When prices are 20% higher and sales are low, retailers are selling less stuff (fewer units) at higher prices.  This has been the reality of our economy for several months.  This is also why productivity has been declining for more than a year.

If you take the 8.6% inflation rate (far understated) and an aggregate drop in sales of 0.3% (again, far understated as a measure of inflation), that means consumers are spending limited incomes on critical or essential purchases like housing, food, fuel and energy.  Consumers are not purchasing durable goods; people are hunkering down.

Yearly retail sales (May ’21 compared to May ’22) are +8.1%.  However, yearly retail inflation for the same period is +8.6%.  Again, reflecting that less stuff is being purchased inside the economy at higher prices.  If the commerce dept was measuring actual units being purchased, we would be seeing massive drops in sales.

Samsung is reacting to a demand side contraction.