Dec 22 2022

Zelensky Pleading for World War III

Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Dec 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I have warned from the start, Ukraine CANNOT be trusted and Zelensky is the man who would start World War III. Everything you worked for your entire life will be forfeited because of this actor. Look at the way he dresses. He is pretending to be poor and at war as if he was a soldier. I CANNOT stress enough, the sheer unbridled hatred of Ukrainian toward Russians is off the chart. They will massacre the Russians that have lived in the Donbas for centuries. That region should have been separated and those people have a fundamental human right to determine to live free of the hatred from Kyiv.

Those who listen to the propaganda that this is all Putin are surrendering not just their own future but their children and grandchildren. No matter what I write, I cannot stop our total collapse into war. It is NEVER the people who wage war, it is always those in power. In this war, they need to cover up the collapse in the monetary system. But they are wrong. They think they can destroy Russia and there will be no nuclear war.

The US just agreed to a military partnership with Israel for we are looking a the Middle East erupting into war. I cannot believe how DUMP our leaders really are. If the shoe was on the other foot, I would launch the missiles from North Korea against the South and Japan, China takes Taiwan, Iran kicks ass in the Middle East, and Russia nukes Kyiv and Warsaw. Both Hitler and Napoleon lost because you CANNOT wage a war on multiple fronts. The US thinks it can use the bodies of other nations and just supply the arms. If I wanted to take down the United States and Europe grinding them into the dirt, you wage war on four fronts simultaneously. Neither Europe nor the United States has the boots on the ground to defend against such an onslaught.

It was the sheer hatred of that region that started World War I. There is no resolution. Ukraine will fight for its total annihilation. Take out Kyiv and then ask, is this what Europe wants and the United States? One Russian nuclear sub can surface offshore and fire 60 warheads. One 200-megaton set off in the Irish Sea will wipe out all of Britain.

Back in 2014, I wrote: ” Divide Ukraine along the historical language faultline and call it a day.” The borders claimed by Ukraine were merely drawn by Kruchev for administrative purposes. Then everyone was Russia. Ukraine was never a country and that is why it embraced ethnic cleansing and the German Nazi Movement. But today, they are not to be trusted with anything. The military support should END. After all, it was the USA that began the civil war using the interim government in 2014 instructing them to immediately send troops to wage war on the Donbas. The Ukrainian people wanted peace and that is what Zelensky promised. No elected government in Ukraine began this war. It was all at the direction of NATO and the USA. That is why Markel played Putin as a fool to just buy time for Ukraine to build its army.

This is a situation that will NEVER be resolved without dividing the country along ethnic lines. The Middle East is no different between Sunni and Shite. There will never be a resolution. Christianity had its Protestant Revolution and there is no way all of Christians will return to the Pope. The same division exists in Ukraine as well as the Middle East. – Accept it and move on.

Dec 22 2022

United Nations Preparing for their One World Government

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Dec 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The resolution “Towards a New International Economic Order,” reaffirmed the United Nation’s need for power to continue working towards a new international economic order based on the principles of equity, sovereign equality, interdependence, common interest, cooperation, and solidarity among all States. It passed from 123 to 50.

Back during the 1970s, in the aftermath of the oil crisis of 1973, developing countries used the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) for political purposes. The UNCTAD had been set up in 1964 as a counter to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) which in itself was the forerunner of the World Trade Organization, WTO. They were demanding grand changes in the management of the global economic system. Their demands were embodied in the Declaration for the Establishment of a New International Economic Order (NIEO), which had been adopted by the United Nations General Assembly back in May of 1974.

It’s stunning today to read the NIEO demands from 1974 since they are almost exactly the same as what the UNCTAD and previous Director General of the WTO (2002-2005), are currently calling for. Today, they are still calling for the suppression of volatile commodity markets as they did back in 1974. They seek preferential trade access to rich country markets, intervention in foreign exchange rates, controlling cross-border capital flows which capital fears a government needs to leave, continue aid to underdeveloped nations, and let us not forget favorable debt rescheduling (defaults). On top of this, they want the United Nation to be in charge of regulating multinational corporations to ensure that they comply with national laws and foster the technology transfers that they want.

All this represents is a drastic turn to a world of authoritarianism as they do what Karl Marx tried and failed – ELIMINATE the Business Cycle. Our ECM Model on the United Nations’ next turning point comes up to March 18/19th, 2023. This is leading into the chaos between January and May of 2023, which is also 31.4 years from the fall of the USSR.

Dec 22 2022

Tucker Carlson Calls Out the Hubris and Arrogance of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy

Posted originally on the CTH on December 22, 2022 | Sundance

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in DC earlier today to visit the White House and deliver a speech before a joint session of congress. Dressed in his customary casual attire, Zelenskyy demanded representatives of the American people adhere to his demands and provide more taxpayer funding regardless of public opinion.

Tucker Carlson called out the ridiculous pantomime on display and the hubris of a character installed to operate the world’s biggest financial laundry operation. WATCH:

An example of the absurd Zelenskyy theater performance is below.

Disgusting

Dec 21 2022

Peru Uprising

Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Dec 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The rise in inflation is causing riots around the world and people are also fed up with corrupt governments everywhere. As our model has been forecasting, the rise in civil unrest is the precursor to the collapse of governments. This is people chasing the military who was protesting the Peru Government. As in the Russian coup when Yeltsin stood on the tank and told the troops not to shoot their own people, once the troops backed down, the coup collapsed. It all depends on the military and whose side do they defend – the people or the corrupt politicians as they have done in Venezuela. Civil Unrest is what unfolds at times as Revolution.

Dec 20 2022

Russia CAPTURES Marinka, Putin PLANS OFFESNIVE In Belarus w/ HISTORY LEGENDS

The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumble on December 19, 2022

Current situation in the Ukrainian Russian war.

Dec 20 2022

Aladdin v Socrates

Armstrong Economics Blog/Trading Re-Posted Dec 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, your Socrates predated Fink’s Aladdin by a decade. Blackrock’s stock dropped about 50% from 2007 into 2010 when Socrates got the whole crash right. It picked the very day of the high in 2007 and they were calling it on the floor Armstrong’s Revenge. Socrates called for a Directional Change here in 2022 and it was correct. Socrates is forecasting Aladdin. Cool!

Socrates has forecasted events years in advance. Nothing else does that. You warned at the WEC about the danger of a fund getting too big. My question is rather straightforward. Do you think that Fink’s influence can save Blackrock in the future?

ANSWER: Fink lost a ton of money before and left that firm. He is a good salesman, but I am a trader. I watched how the Hunt Brothers ended up in bankruptcy because their position in silver was too big and everyone knew it. If they tried to sell one ounce, the market assumed here it all comes and everyone and their 5th ex-wife jumped in front to sell. BlackRock is in a vulnerable position. It is TOO BIG and that may buy influence, but in a liquidity crisis, the danger becomes you are like the Hunts and everyone will front-run you.

The marketplace is so intricate and the regulators are corrupt, anything goes for there is no loyalty on the street – ask Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns. I had the Aristotle Onasis estate precious metals positions I had to liquidate. He had the largest private holding of platinum in the world. It took me months to get approval from the CFTC just trade above exchange limits. When I got approval and called a dealer for a quote, everyone knew the position. Someone in the CFTC let their friends know.

Fink is on board with Schwab and preaches Stakeholder Capitalism. That philosophy was never Schwab’s but was born during the Great Depression before there were social programs from the government. It was a complete disaster and set the stage for the takeover boom of the 1980s.

I was advising many of the takeover players back then. I showed these charts and how the Dow bottomed in 1977 in terms of book value thanks to Stakeholder Capitalism. I showed clients we could buy companies, sell the assets, and double or triple the money. That became the genesis of the movie Wall Street with Michael Douglas.

It was Milton Friedman, back in 1970, who exposed how Stakeholder Capitalism was inefficient and stupid. It was a derivative of Marxism that took down Communism. He laid out that such a role was that of government, not corporations, whose #1 fiduciary obligation was to its shareholder. Under Schwab, I could say, “OK I will go public; everyone sends in money. I will give you shares in return and then say — OMG, there are people starving in Africa!” So, I decide to give 50% of all the profits to them and not my investors. This is Stakeholder Capitalism that Fink endorses thinking it is something Schwab has invented. Worse still, he has adopted that I believe to raise money from Schwab’s disciples. It Ain’t Capitalism – It’s Marxism!

The problem I see is that you simply cannot collect that much money to manage without becoming the elephant in the room. By the time we get to 2025, it does not look like any amount of influence will matter. Aladdin is not the same as Socrates. It cannot project out decades. Fink is specializing in high-frequency trading and ETFs. This will be very interesting in the next couple of years. He claims he is investing for the long-term so don’t judge him by the fluctuations. Those who said that in 1929, “HOLD”, lost 90%. It took 26 years for the Dow to return to the 1929 levels.

Dec 18 2022

The Tax of ETFs

Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Dec 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Interactive Brokers has published a specific list of what is taxable and what is not. If your brokerage house does not understand that ALL ETFs are not taxable, then you really have to find another broke.

Dec 17 2022

January 1st, 2023 Tax on ETFs

Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Dec 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Hi Marty,

Please help as I invest in mostly ETFs from Australia.
I was getting USD exposure but now looks to be ending by Jan 1st, 2023.

I was Informed 2 days ago.

Could you do a post about this and any potential workarounds as I’d take a guess a lot of International clients would have a similar issue.

The US Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) has issued a new provision under Section 1446(f) of the Internal Revenue Code (“IRC”) that primarily impacts non-US Persons who invest in US PTP Securities. With effect from 1 January 2023, non-US Persons will incur a 10% withholding tax on gross proceeds from sales or trading of US PTP Securities.

Regards Dean

ANSWER: This is once again the Biden Administration hunting every possible dime it can find while handing endless billion to Zelensky who may be on track to become the richest corrupt politician in the entire world. This is the notice going out to all foreigners investing in the once land of the free and home of the brave which has been downgraded to the land of the absolute fools without the hill. One bank has sent this to their clients trading in US ETFs.

Dear Customer,

Withholding Tax of 10% – Publicly Traded Partnership Interest (PTPs)

With effect from 1 January 2023, a 10% withholding will be imposed on sales and certain distributions associated with PTPs or exchange traded funds (ETFs).

PTPs trade like stocks on major U.S. and global exchanges and are often indistinguishable from equities, ETFs and other commonly traded instruments. It is critical that you understand these tax implications when you hold such PTPs and you should seek the appropriate professional advice if you are unsure of the contents of this email.

Background:

The Internal Revenue Code Section 1446(f) issued by the US Internal Revenue Service imposes rules relating to withholding of tax on transfers of Publicly Traded Partnership Interest (PTPs) and will take effect on 1 January 2023. The new rules consist of the following:

· All PTPs, including non-U.S. PTPs, are subject to the new requirements if they have gains that are effectively connected with a trade or business within the United States.

· 10% withholding will be applied to sales and certain distributions associated with PTPs. (Please note that where there is any existing withholding tax being applied today, for example to other distributions, those will continue to be applied with no change/ no reduction)

Please visit _____ official website > Notices for more details.

If you have any further questions, please email us or call our Customer Service line.

Section 1446 (see link) is part of a segment of the Code that governs withholding on nonresident aliens and foreign corporations.

Section 1446 itself deals with withholding on foreign partners who have income that is effectively connected with the US through a partnership. Section 1446(f) adds a withholding requirement that applies to the disposition of partnership interests, but it does not apply if the selling partner provides an appropriate affidavit:

“No person shall be required to deduct and withhold any amount under paragraph (1) with respect to any disposition if the transferor furnishes to the transferee an affidavit by the transferor stating, under penalty of perjury, the transferor’s United States taxpayer identification number and that the transferor is not a foreign person.”

I.R.C. § 1446(f)(2)(A).

I doubt that section 1446 applies here, as my understanding is that ETFs are taxed as registered investment companies, not as partnerships. But I am not an accountant or a tax lawyer. My reading on this text suggests that this turns on the definition of an ETF which is clearly not a partnership.

Those who are being harassed by various banks should contact their legal departments and demand their interpretation as to why suddenly an ETF is a partnership. I would love to see what explanation they have provided to apply this tax. If there is some other code they are overlapping or how they are coming up with this or are they acting out of sheer overcaution? If they will not provide an explanation, I suggest you close the account ASAP or wire out all funds until you find another firm.

Dec 15 2022

Fed Announces 0.5% Interest Rate Hike as Cycle of Inflation Shows Plateau

Posted originally on the CTH on December 14, 2022 | sundance

As we have often discussed on these pages, inflation would ultimately moderate and plateau not because prices were dropping but rather because of the calendar cycle.

As the economy cycles through a year of large price increases, the current inflation rate cycles through to the period when prices first increased. This calendar cycle means continued price increases are lower as a percentage and thus the inflation rate appears to modify despite prices continuing to rise. [BLS Report]

This scenario, prices remaining high and continuing to climb – yet lower as a percentage, now provides the justification for the federal reserve to state inflation is moderating.

(Via NBC) – Amid signs that price growth in the U.S. economy is rapidly cooling, the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it was slowing the pace of its rate-hiking program designed to tackle inflation — but that more hikes were still on the table.

The Federal Open Market Committee said it was increasing its key federal funds rate by 0.5%, after announcing four-straight 0.75% hikes at its most recent meetings. In its Wednesday statement, the Fed said it continues to target an inflation rate of 2% over the long term and would continue to increase the federal funds rate to do so.

“Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures,” the committee said.

But bringing down inflation is likely to come at the cost of higher unemployment in the short term: The Fed said it now projects the 2023 unemployment rate to average 4.6%, equating to hundreds of thousands of more jobless workers compared with the current rate of 3.7%.

The Labor Department on Tuesday reported that annual inflation clocked in at 7.1% in November — the lowest reading in more than a year. While it is still high compared to the 2% level at which the Federal Reserve typically seeks to hold down inflation, the most recent number signals that the galloping price growth earlier this year is fading. (read more)

Prices will never drop because the supply side pressure from a new energy policy remains as the driving factor.

Demand has dropped throughout 2022 as the U.S. economy, gauged in units of product sold, has contracted. Consumers are not buying non-essential goods or services as the costs of housing, fuel, heating, electricity, overall energy and food prices continue rising.

Despite the economic contraction that is lowering energy use, rapidly increasing energy costs continue to be the driving force of inflation.

This period of depressed economic activity will continue as unemployment begins to become problematic. As a nation we will remain in this economic malaise as long as Green New Deal, Build Back Better, energy policy is maintained.

On the positive side the economic shrinking is reversable with new energy policy; however, the opportunity to make that change is several years away. In the interim, the cost of living will remain the biggest challenge for the foreseeable future, and the inbound open-border migration will keep wages depressed.

Under the economic program of Joe Biden wages must be depressed in order to avoid production inflation (higher labor costs) from piling atop the energy policy inflation. Thus, the border influx will continue.

The gap between the haves and have nots is also going to explode in the next five years.

Dec 14 2022

Real Estate

Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Dec 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just want to congratulate you on creating Socrates. I am a real estate aficionado and Socrates has beaten the Case-Shiller Index which peaked in June of 2022 and even the Redfin Index which peaked in May 2022. Socrates peaked at a high in December 2021 ahead of everyone. Your model has shown a 34% drop into October where everyone is saying a 20% drop by the end of next year is likely. I just wanted to write because you and Socrates have beaten everyone in the real estate forecasting business and you do not even make that a big deal. Socrates is amazing.

I just wanted to share that because you do not even bother pounding your chest about real estate.

Thank you so much

REPLY: Socrates is forecasting so many aspects of the world economy I do not have the time to pound my chest and if I did, I would probably end up in the hospital for it gets so many things right. It covers a fair sampling of real estate around the world and I do know we have many major real estate companies tuning in. Thank you for your comment. I have not had the time to look at either of those two indices as of yet.

Centinel2012

De Oppresso Liber

Tag Archives: European Army

Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Dec 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Dec 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Posted originally on the CTH on December 22, 2022 | Sundance

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Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Dec 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumble on December 19, 2022

Current situation in the Ukrainian Russian war.

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Armstrong Economics Blog/Trading Re-Posted Dec 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Dec 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Dec 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Posted originally on the CTH on December 14, 2022 | sundance

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Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Dec 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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