Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Re-Posted Jul 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Boris Johnson has been elected as the new Prime Minister of Britain and he has promised to take Britain out of the European Union “come what may.” Jeremy Corbyn says Labour will table a motion of no confidence, designed to force Boris Johnson from office “at a time of (their) choosing,” adding “it will be an interesting surprise for all of you.” That is the main concern that if Labor gets a hold of the government, Britain will see a massive exit of capital and Corbyn will single handedly destroy the British economy, which has been the concern behind in the decline in the pound sterling.
Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt in the battle for the leadership of Britain’s governing Conservative Party winning 66% of the vote. Although the Conservatives’ working majority in Parliament is very small, it appears to be enough to ensure that Mr. Johnson will succeed Mrs. May as prime minister and Labor will not be able to stop that at this point in time.
What is very interesting is that our computer gave us two targets — May and July 2019. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would step down as leader of the Conservative Party and then as prime minister after repeatedly failing to get her Brexit plan through Parliament on May 24th, 2019. The next target was July, and here we have Boris Johnson elected. Now we are looking at October and December going into year-end.
Boris Johnson Wins Party Vote Becomes Newest British Prime Minister…
Boris Johnson has succeeded in beating his nearest rival Jeremy Hunt for leadership of the conservative party in the U.K. thereby becoming the next Prime Minister. One of the priority challenges for Prime Minister Johnson will be navigating a successful Brexit.
A full three years after the British electorate voted to leave the European Union, the elites in Britain have continued to stymie the referendum in their effort to remain attached to the communal values of the collective society. Thus gave rapid rise, recently, to the Brexit Party as a national force led by Nigel Farage. It’s the UK version of ‘deplorables’ vs ‘elites’.
The British Parliament is filled with elected members who stand in opposition to the majority of the British citizenry. It is amid this professionally political and elitist disconnect that Boris Johnson must now attempt to deliver Brexit, while the purchased politicians of both institutional parties will oppose his effort. [Sound familiar?]
London (AFP) – Boris Johnson won the race to become Britain’s next prime minister on Tuesday, heading straight into a confrontation over Brexit with Brussels and parliament, as well as a tense diplomatic stand-off with Iran.
The former London mayor easily beat his rival, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, in a vote of grassroots members of the governing Conservative Party.
He is expected to be confirmed as prime minister on Wednesday when Theresa May formally tenders her resignation to Queen Elizabeth II.
US President Donald Trump was the first world leader to offer his congratulations, saying: “He will be great!”
It is a triumph for a man who has always coveted the premiership. But Johnson, known for his jokes and bluster, is taking over at a time of immense political upheaval.
Three years after the referendum vote to leave the European Union, Britain remains a member amid continued wrangling in a divided parliament on how to proceed.
– ‘We’ll get Brexit done’ –
Johnson led the referendum “Leave” campaign and — after May delayed Brexit twice — insists the latest deadline must be met, with or without a divorce agreement with the EU.
“We’re going to get Brexit done on October 31,” he declared in a speech to party members in London, after winning 66 percent of almost 140,000 votes cast. (read more)
Here is Johnson’s victory speech. [Prompted, just hit play]
Italy Seizes Missile from Far Right Activists
Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest
Posted Jul 18, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The tensions in Europe continue to rise as the entire refugee issue has led to a major polarization within Europe. In Italy, the BBC reported that an anti-terrorism police unit in northern Italy seized an air-to-air missile and other sophisticated weapons during raids on far-right extremist groups who were combat ready. The missiles belong to Neo-Nazi propaganda groups and they originated from the Qatari armed forces. The civil unrest that our computer has been forecasting on a global scale is here to stay and is heating up as we head into 2024.
Nigel Farage’s BREXIT Party is Now #2
Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Posted Jul 18, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party is now the second largest in Britain. The Conservatives still topped the YouGov poll with 24% of the vote, but they were boosted by the prospect of Boris Johnson, who is a Brexit believer, as the next Tory leader. The prospects for Europe remain up in the air as Brussels still refuses to reform and is looking to punish Switzerland as an example for Britain. But trying to exclude the London markets as a place Europeans can invest will cause a major economic decline for Europe rather than London.
EU Refuses to Negotiate Fairly with Britain – Demands of a Customs Union
Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Re-Posted Jul 11, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; could you explain this whole Customs Union issue in BREXIT? Some see it as a great idea, others say it is surrendering sovereignty to Brussels.
SN
ANSWER: A customs union, some claim, would help businesses that send goods back and forth to the European Union. So it would be of interest to Britain’s manufacturers, particularly the automobile industry. They also claim that it might ease complications of the much-hated Irish backstop plan, which is intended to eliminate the need for hard border checks between Northern Ireland and the south.
However, a customs union would allow goods to flow easier, in theory, but it would not allow for frictionless trade. It would keep the tariffs Britain pays on goods that cross the border equal to those that countries in the European Union pay currently but at a huge cost. The goods being traded will still need to meet the same product standards that apply throughout the EU. That is the key.
Turkey is a member of a customs union with the EU, but it is not a member of the EU bloc itself. Therefore, trucks are held up for hours as guards check for permits and make sure the products being transported are in compliance with regulations set in Brussels. They would do the same with a vengeance with Britain. A customs union would not cover trade in services, finance, trading, like legal counsel and information technology, which are by far the largest sector of the British economy – not trucks going back and forth.
The devil is in the detail of a customs union. The EU demands that to be in a customs union they must surrender their sovereignty to Brussels and will be prohibited from making their own trade deals. That means Britain could not enter trade deals with China or the United States simply because it does trade with the EU. This defeats the entire understanding of BREXIT.
France Refuses any Negotiation on BREXIT & Demands to Punish Britain
Armstrong Economics Blog/France
Re-Posted Jul 11, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Paris is adamant that the EU should not renegotiate the Brexit deal. The French want to punish the British at all costs, and that means at the expense of their own employment and markets. Amélie de Montchalin, France’s minister for European affairs, said, “If the UK wants to leave the EU, and in an orderly way, the withdrawal agreement is the deal on the table, which has been negotiated for over two years. We’ve also said that the political declaration on the future relationship is open to discussion if the prime minister had a majority.”
France’s position is to end trade by blocking trucks from Britain through the ports of Calais and Dover. They are more interested in punishing Britain than anything else. They refuse any negotiation whatsoever. British trucks will not be able to board ships in Dover in a no-deal BREXIT scenario if they do not have the correct customs paperwork, following a deal between the Port of Calais and Channel shipping lines. Any excuse will prevent trucks from delivering anything to Europe.
Schengen Agreement Dead – Killed by Refugees
Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union
Posted Jun 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Dear Martin,
you are once more right with your view’s. EU’s Schengen agreement is going to die. From May 1st on, anybody in the EU has to carry an “A1 Certificate” if he or she is going on a business trip to avoid “social insurance fraud”. If not, you could be fined by up to 10.000,00 Euro.
Best regards
AC
REPLY: The cornerstone of the EU was to be the freedom of movement to create the United States of Europe. This became known as the Schengen Agreement to create a borderless Europe signed on June 14, 1985, between five of the then ten member states of the EU. It proposed the gradual abolition of border checks at the signatories’ common borders. Measures proposed included reduced speed vehicle checks, which allowed vehicles to cross borders without stopping, allowing residents in border areas the freedom to cross borders away from fixed checkpoints, and the harmonization of visa policies. However, this Schengen Agreement did not come into effect until March 26, 1995 (1995.232). It eliminated border checks among its members and allowed foreign visitors to travel throughout the area using one visa.
Britain has been preventing those non-EU citizens with Schengen visas from freely crossing the border into Britain. Someone from Ukraine with an EU visa cannot travel to Britain and subsequently to many former British Commonwealth states, such as the Bahamas, even for a vacation. Switzerland also is experiencing an anti-EU immigration trend.
This is what they always do. They cannot repeal the Schengen Agreement, for that would defeat the entire premise of the EU in creating the United States of Europe. They are using health insurance to prove you are really a citizen or legitimate resident of your country. It is always the same — wordsmithing. This is not my simple opinion. The Schengen Agreement was dead once they allowed the refugees into Europe.
Brexit Explained
Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Re-Posted May 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The EU Elections Due Tomorrow 26th
Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union
Re-Posted May 25, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
There will be no exit polls in the EU election. They made it a criminal offense for any country in the EU to publish exit polls, or any information about how people have voted during the election, before 22:00 BST on Sunday 26 May. In the UK, the vote took place on May 23rd. Voters in Ireland turn out on the 24th. Those in the Czech Republic, Latvia, Malta, and Slovakia voted today on May 25th and the remaining 21 EU nations cast their ballots on May 26th. Theresa May’s disastrous performance sent the Conservative Party down to 7% in the polls against Nigel Farage’s 37% for his new BREXIT Party.
The results are going to be interesting to see just how much of an anti-EU backlash has taken place throughout Europe. It will take a major victory for the anti-EU movement to perhaps give at least some pause to this agenda that cannot possibly succeed even structurally in Europe. The question becomes very clear. Will Brussels’ dig in its heels and refuse to reform? Or will Brussels finally listen to reason
PM Theresa May Resigns
Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Re-Posted May 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that she will now step down as the U.K. prime minister after failing to win support for her plan to withdraw from the European Union. It has been shocking how she only pitched Brussels’ demands and refused to defend Britain. This conflict has been all about Brussels who demands a hard border in Ireland to prevent their loss of taxes on trade.
May stated she was resigning outside 10 Downing Street on Friday, for she said it was “in the interests of the country for a new prime minister” to lead the U.K.’s Brexit process and confirmed her final day as Conservative Party leader would be June 7. However, she will continue as prime minister until a successor is chosen.
“It is and will always remain a matter of deep regret to me that I have not been able to deliver Brexit. It will be for my successor to seek a way forward that honors the result of the referendum,”she said. “To succeed he or she will have to find consensus in parliament where I have not.”
Theresa May has single handedly destroyed her reputation and political career. Brussel’s refusal to yield on the border issue appears to be a deliberate ploy to try to force the U.K. into a choice of a hard exit or remain.
Centinel2012 