Germany Increased Tax Collections 4.3% 1st Half 2017


The Germany has posted a stunning 4.3% rise in tax revenues during the first half of 2017. I have warned that while the ECB keeps buying government bonds to “stimulate” the economy, they keep trying to sterize the expansion by raising taxes and hunting people for taxes.

They do not seem to grasp that injecting money by buying government debt and then raising taxes on individuals will not stimulate the economy. Nearly 10 years of this insane policy and we have less than 2% inflation. They seem incapable of comprehending that simply increasing the money supply does not produce inflation. The only thing that counts is the increase in net disposable income.

If I create $100 and give it to you and then demand you give me back $90, did I really increase the moeny supply by $100 or just $10? It seems that common sense is just rare these days.

The Fall Before the Rise


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I find it fascinating that your computer projected August as the turning point this year and the week of 09/04. I suppose that could be a set up for the August being a high close and a crash beings in September as it seems always to unfold be it 1929, 1987, 0r 1998. Do you have any idea why a crash seems to come always in September and October?

This has played out so far as you laid out in Hong Kong. I think I will come to Orlando as well.

JH

ANSWER: That is an interesting question people have been asking all my life. There is no real fundamental explanation why wars perk up in August and markets tend to crash in September-October. The joke has been the family spent too much on vacation and so they sell stock in September to pay the bills. It is definitely seasonal.

Remember one major thing. This is the move that has to suck people in on the wrong side in order to create the energy to swing back in the true direction. This is true in stocks as well as in gold. I have warned that we can get a potential HUGE false move, which can even be the biggest in history. The bigger the false move, the bigger the REAL move.

I have a feeling this is going to be a very interesting WEC in Orlando.

Gold & the Dow


QUESTION:  Dear Martin,

I have been following your blog for years now. I am not a trader or financial person in any sense of the word but I take a keen interest in the economy and try to keep myself educated re current science theories for my own interest. I love your blog and your fundamental theory re cycles and how the West thinks differently to the East. I feel you have given me an an insight into how the world functions in a way i couldn’t hope to find else where and you generously put your blog out for free which is a public service that I am deeply grateful for so thank you very much for that. I am English and live in England and I have a very modest amount to invest and i wondered if you would recommend either (a)waiting for gold to change trend and investing in that and or (b)waiting for the Dow to possibly go through 23000 and invest in that.

 

ANSWER: There is little doubt that we stand at the threshold to some chaotic period ahead. I have warned governments behind the curtain of what is to come. It seems as if at times I am the only person who has ever read a history book. I point out that 99% of all revolutions begin with the abuse of taxes. No matter how many times I show this is the trend and all the countless rebellions in ancient, medieval, and modern times (within the last 309 years) such as the American Revolution (no taxation without representation) or France (let them eat cake), I am just one person and I cannot move a mountain. So I do this blog as a public service realizing that we must crash and burn and thus it is up to us at that brief opening in the clouds to push for the freedom we deserve for our posterity.

We know where the trend changes from gold at 1362 to the Dow at 23,000. We have not yet missed anything. The boat has not left the dock. Patience is required along with a clear head. Never act emotionally. Be clam and poised. Remember there must always be the false move before the slingshot move.

It is the fool who rushes in assuming he will miss the move before key points are exceeded. That is when losses are always the greatest. Rallies in gold are up to the next bank of Reversals as is support in the Dow. Keep in mind that September is a turning point in gold and August was key for the Dow. The two are not yet aligned. That may not unfold until next year.

Trade Stuff: Trump Refuses Chinese Steel Compromise – Mexico Sees NAFTA Collapsing, Turns to China…


There is an saying people use to criticize President Trump based on the people around him:

“People are policy, and policy is people”…

The basic argument is that Mr. Trump can be swayed or distracted from his mission by his staff and those he hires.

This is a common catch-phrase brought about by historic and conventional wisdom.  However, when applied to President Trump, it’s also just plain wrong.

No similar cliche is appropriate for Donald Trump, nothing deters or influences him from his larger decades-long ‘America-First’ economic strategy. Nothing.

Donald Trump is the policy. There’s no assembly of advisers on economic issues that can ever sway his instinct.

Example:

(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump last month rejected a Chinese proposal to cut steel overcapacity, despite the endorsement of some of his top advisers, the Financial Times said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Beijing proposed cutting steel overcapacity by 150 million tonnes by 2022 in a deal twice rejected by Trump, who instead urged advisers to find ways to impose tariffs on imports from China, the paper said, citing the sources.

The deal was endorsed by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross a week before U.S. and Chinese officials held a high-level economic dialogue, the FT added, citing a U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter.

White House spokeswoman Natalie Strom declined to comment on the “purported internal discussions” between the president and his cabinet members when contacted by Reuters.  (read more)

Panda expected POTUS Trump to go for the “Wimpy strategy”? ‘We’ll pay you Tuesday (2022) for our steel access today‘.

Nope.

That’s not going to happen; now is now.  U.S. Steel industry is at a critical mass; if we wait five years for a Chinese production reduction we might not have an industry.

Even if Secretary Wilbur Ross endorsed it, he’s not going to sway POTUS Trump on an economic dynamic Trump has already mapped out.  President Trump respects Wilbur Ross; heck, the Manhattan bankers hired Ross when they were in battle with Trump over the Atlantic City Casino loans.  Donald Trump and Wilbur Ross were adversaries then.  Why do you think President Trump wanted hired-gun Ross as his Commerce Secretary?

But even “Killer” Wilburine isn’t going to hold sway when it comes to an economic issue that cuts to the central point of MAGAnomics and Making U.S. Manufacturing Great Again.  However, that’s probably where the ‘bring me tariff’s” story’s came from.

♦Second issue.  Mexico realizes they might be getting played with this NAFTA renegotiation strategy.  President Trump might indeed be letting Canada and Mexico spin their wheels only to say ‘oh well’, and walk away at a time of his choosing.   Even USTR Robert Lighthizer and Secretary Ross are not guaranteed to know in advance.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto will travel to China next week to discuss trade and investment, as Mexico looks for ways to decrease its dependence on NAFTA, especially trade with neighboring United States.

He will hold a bilateral meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping and participate in a summit of the BRICS nations, a grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, on Sept. 4 and 5, Mexico’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Pena Nieto’s visit comes as U.S., Mexican and Canadian negotiators meet Sept. 1-5 in Mexico City for a round of talks to revamp the 23-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Mexico is trying to increase trade with Latin America and Asia, and on Monday took part in the first of three days of talks in Australia aimed at reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, disrupted by the withdrawal of the United States.

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his threat to scrap NAFTA, which he has cast as killing jobs and exacerbating the U.S. deficit, and ripped into trading partners Canada and Mexico. (read more)

Mexico might think they are hedging their bets, however they are actually playing right into Donald Trump’s preferred method of confronting adversaries.   Trump prefers united opposition; it’s easier to leverage a better outcome when the mutual interests of two parties who oppose you are in alignment and plain view.

Rather than face Mexico and China individually, POTUS Trump would much rather have Mexico and China attached in economic interest. It doubles the leverage by enlarging the target; we are the customer for both; and we can play each against the other.

In addition, it’s a commonly accepted open secret that China and Mexico are already working together to exploit the U.S. market via NAFTA back doors.  Why not remove Panda mask and make it formal opposition? Much easier that way.

However, Trump is steadfast on big picture USTR Trade Deals for manufacturing, but not necessarily intransigent on specific sector details; ie. willing to give Canada and U.S. teams more negotiation time to work out the lumber issues with Commerce, prior to tariffs:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Monday announced a 2-1/2 month delay in determining final anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Canadian softwood lumber to buy more time to negotiate a settlement of the trade dispute.

The Commerce Department had previously been scheduled to announce final lumber duties on Sept. 6, a step that would have ended the current negotiating process with Canada’s government. Ross set a new deadline of no later than Nov. 14.

“I remain hopeful that we can reach a negotiated solution that satisfies the concerns of all parties,” Ross said. “This extension could provide the time needed to address the complex issues at hand and to reach an equitable and durable suspension agreement.”

U.S. and Canadian softwood lumber producers and government officials have all said they want to reach an “equitable” arrangement to settle U.S. claims that Canadian lumber is unfairly subsidized and dumped onto U.S. markets below cost. (read more)

“Taking the lumps out”, and pushing the deadline past NAFTA rounds #2 and #3…

The Cycle of Civilization


COMMENT: Interestingly enough, in Switzerland the -in majority- leftish and Pro-EU government has been trying to push Switzerland into EU for years as you’re aware of.

Now the SVP is fighting against a new international contract, called “institutional agreement” which would give (amongst others) the EUGH the Supremacy Clause over Switzerland – end of Swiss direct democracy plus all still existing “state” rights (despite 60% – 80% of all new regulations/laws are already taken over from Brussels..)

REPLY: While the revisionists want to claim that the Civil War was only about slavery when in fact the overwhelming majority of Confederate soldiers owned no slaves, they say history is written by the victor not the loser. There is never a single reason for any war. Iraq was claimed to be protecting the people who Saddam Hussein was gassing. The weapons of mass destruction was thrown in for good measure to make it sound urgent when it was Dick Cheney and his greedy buddies looking for oil. Nevertheless, the Civil War was really part of the Cycle of Civilization. We band together creating large governments and then we disband and move back to tribal jurisdiction. This Cycle of Civilization has been going on for thousands of years.

Indeed, this trend is part of the Cycle of Civilization we must understand run the course throughout history of human existence. The Roman Empire took over states and absorbed them to dominate the Western World. Previously, those states suppresses tribes to create states with a central power. When Rome fell, it broke up not into states, but back into tribes and then feudalism. As invaders reemerged, then these feudal castles banned together for a common defense.

The king of France really emerged from the Carolingian dynasty (751–888) under Pepin the Short (751-768) who consolidated the various independent kingdoms as France began to emerge as a nation state. In England, it was not until 827 when Northumbria submitted to Egbert of Wessex at Dore, briefly making Egbert the first king to reign over a united England. However, it was in 886 when Alfred the Great retook London, which he apparently regarded as a turning point in his reign. Previously, there were tribes that formed cities states like Mercia and Wessex and then they merge and become a nation state.

The Cycle of Civilization is the constant swing between independent city states back to unified national states and then empires. Europe went through this as did China and the USA Civil War was fought against this nationalization or State’s Rights. It was not simply slavery.

Those who deny the Civil War was also over State’s Rights, should read this letter. Here is Justice Scalia’s famous letter noting that the Civil War settled the issue of the right to secede, separate and distinct from this issue of slavery that people are focusing on today. This is a major trend throughout history, the Cycle of Civilization, which is always in motion and it is why Europe will breakup as will the United States. – Nothing lasts forever.

New Proposed Regs You Must Declare if you have more than $10k in Crypto Currencies


According to the new draft law proposal, all persons who enter the US will have to declare their holdings in crypto currencies with a value over 10,000 dollars. This is the case with larger quantities of cash or precious metals. Naturally, they are calling this money laundering and possible funding of terrorism. It’s really about taxes. 

I have been warning that this would be the next step in government regulation. They are hunting money everywhere. There is no possible way they will allow crypto currencies to beat them. The stories that they cannot stop them are really nonsense. Income taxes are not illegal if you cannot pay, but if you fail to tell them what you made, that is criminal. Applying this same legal approach to crypto currencies is inevitable.

This will apply to Americans returning from overseas. If you fail to report it, they can jail you and confiscate everything you have. It will be the failure to declare.

The only way to be off the grid is still tangible assets and that will be non-real estate limiting this to simply movable assets. Even cash they can simply cancel as was the case in India. They are out for everything for we are the problem not their mismanagement from their perspective. This is also why they are in an all out war against Trump.  They will not tolerate anyone who is not a career politician regardless of what they say.

Trump is He His Own Worst Enemy?


QUESTION: You seem to have given up hope on Trump getting his agenda through Congress. Do you agree that the Trump presidency is a failure?

BV

ANSWER: There is no question that the powers that be are out to stop Trump at all costs. They are indeed winning. But Trump is his own worst enemy. The press know all they have to do is ask him a loaded controversial question that criticizes him and he responds in kind. If he were smart, he would play it like Hillary – lie to the press and the public and privately assure everyone that’s not her real agenda.

Trump is too honest in that regard and that hands the press all the ammunition to turn every single event into a controversy. I watched the Trump press conference and he said the Wall is needed to stop the drug trade. When CNN ran it on the nightly news, they cut his statement ending it with security, implying the racist issue rather than drugs.

On the Charlottesville  incident, clearly this demonstrates he does not understand how to deal with the press. Yes, there is the issue of both extreme sides rising.  There is no question that the dominant issue was State’s Rights. However, the white supremacists are not preaching that – they are preaching hate of blacks and Jews. The extreme left are Communists following Marx. These two sides are both responsible without question. Nevertheless, the political cartoons reflect the perception that all the evil lies on one side. Trump has to understand that the event in focus must be addressed in isolation. He should have immediately condemned the white supremacists for they openly say Trump is too liberal for them. He should have confined his remarks to just the one side and then address the left when they try to dig up graves or will no doubt protest the Columbus Day parade on October 9th in New York City.

CNN and others will fan the flames and they are creating the divide within America. Eventually, we will see the USA break up probably after 2032. Trump was elected because of the rising tension. He is a symptom, not the cause. Nevertheless, he is his own worst enemy aiding this divide.

I seriously question if Trump will get his agenda through. Even if he resigned and he was succeeded by the VP, the agenda will not be passed and therein lies the problem for the Republican Party betraying the people once again.

Harvey Flood Impact Continues – Peak Water Anticipated Wednesday and Thursday…


Ongoing record rainfall from TS Harvey continues to bring record flooding to East Texas.  Almost 25 inches of rain has fallen on the region following Hurricane Harvey’s landfall last weekend.  As the rain continues, weather forecasters now anticipating peak water on Wednesday or Thursday as Harvey’s rain begins impacting Southwest Louisiana. [Reuters Picture Gallery Here]  Texas is only about half-way through the anticipated impact timeline.

Thousands of rescue missions have taken place, most by ordinary citizens using private boats and vessels to retrieve stranded residents in the area.  12,000 National Guard troops are working 24/7, and volunteers from several states have arrived to supplement local, state and federal search and rescue efforts.

TEXAS – A new record daily max rainfall of 16.07 inches was set at George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston on Sunday, breaking the old record of 8.32 inches from 1945, according to National Weather Service (NWS) measurements. The airport was closed in the wake of Harvey.

In the last two days, 24.44 inches of rain has fallen in Houston, the NWS reported on Monday. The rainfall from Harvey has already made this August the wettest month on record for Houston.

ABC News meteorologists expect up to 50 inches of rain to accumulate in the southeastern part of Texas by Wednesday as a result of the storm.

Harvey has so far affected about a quarter of the Texas population, or 6.8 million people in 18 counties, according to The Associated Press.

At least three people are confirmed dead in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, a number that is expected to rise.

The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) has performed more than 2,000 multi-person rescues in the Houston-Galveston area as of Monday morning. There have been more than 250 survivors from air rescues alone.

The USCG has 20 helicopters and 9 Flood Punt Teams conducting search and rescue operations in the Houston area.

The Houston Fire Department received 5,500 calls for help in the past 24-hour period, fire officials said Monday.

The Houston Police Department has completed about 2,000 rescue missions since Harvey began, Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo said today on “Good Morning America.” (read more).

President Trump Reverses Obama Executive Order Blocking Military Surplus From Police Purchase…


Today President Trump has issued an executive order revoking a previous Executive Order #13688, put in place by President Obama, which blocked local and state law enforcement from purchasing military surplus gear.  Effective with today’s order local law enforcement will have access to U.S. military equipment.

Attorney General Jeff Sessions cited two studies which concluded that the use of military-style equipment can have positive effects, reducing citizen complaints and assaults on officers.

EXECUTIVE ORDER – By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered as follows:

Section 1. Revocation of Executive Order 13688. Executive Order 13688 of January 16, 2015 (Federal Support for Local Law Enforcement Equipment Acquisition), is hereby revoked.

Sec. 2. Revocation of Recommendations Issued Pursuant to Executive Order 13688. The recommendations issued pursuant to Executive Order 13688 do not reflect the policy of the executive branch. All executive departments and agencies are directed, as of the date of this order and consistent with Federal law, to cease implementing those recommendations and, if necessary, to take prompt action to rescind any rules, regulations, guidelines, or policies implementing them.

Sec. 3. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

DONALD J. TRUMP – THE WHITE HOUSE, August 28, 2017.

Overall, the militarization of our local and state police forces presents a complex dynamic. On one hand we want our law enforcement to have the most effective tools needed to deal with threats and public safety. On the other hand seeing an MRAP vehicle in the local police parade on the 4th of July is not something to be cheering about.

This can be a slippery slope if not well managed, and local people need to be engaged with their public officials to express valid opinions and concerns.

North Korea Launches Another Missile – Attempts Escalation By Crossing Northern Japan…


Beijing (China) is attempting to “trigger” President Trump’s internal neo-con and militaristic opposition. Stay frosty, avoid emotional reports demanding military engagement, and remain steady with a high altitude perspective.

Multiple reports now confirming that North Korea has conducted a missile test. The flight path escalates the issues by crossing over part of Northern Japan. In essence, Beijing China just threw an elbow at President Trump. [The likely “Why” follows breaking report]

TOKYO (Reuters) – North Korea fired a missile that passed over northern Japan early on Tuesday, the Japanese government said. The government’s J-Alert warning system advised people in the area to take precautions, but public broadcaster NHK said there was no sign of damage.

The Japanese military did not attempt to shoot down the missile, which passed over Japanese territory around 6:06 a.m. local time (2106 GMT). (Reuters)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, speaking to reporters in Tokyo after the launch, said the missile appeared to have passed over airspace and that the government was urgently collecting intelligence on the incident and doing everything to ensure the safety of its citizens, according to remarks broadcast on NHK, Bloomberg News reports.

Beijing China controls Kim Jong-un. Period.

Looking at the big picture, there’s no single event being responded to by this missile launch; rather, what we are seeing is a reaction to: A.) the cumulative effect of very strategic recent geopolitical maneuvering by President Trump (Venezuela, Pakistan, India etc); and, B.) the words spoken by the administration -including Trump, tillerson and Haley- that are removing China’s panda face.

Remember, China doesn’t draw a distinction between Peace and War.  It’s yin/yang. All actions toward China’s larger objectives are viewed as natural to achieve victory.  War or Peace it makes no difference to them; they don’t accept mutually beneficial outcomes. Either they win, or they lose.  All action to achieve victory is part of same world view.

When you accept this approach, you being to understand what happens when a nation built upon such outlooks feels squeezed. They fight back harder. To them it’s a zero-sum battle.

China’s objective is conquest.  China’s tool for conquest is economics.  President Trump entire geopolitical strategy of using economics in a similar way is an existential threat to China’s endeavor.  Communist Beijing calls the proverbial shots.

President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.

♦Squeeze #1. Trump and Mnuchin just sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue.  Venezuela now needs more money.  China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding.  Now China and Russia will need to loan more, directly.

♦Squeeze #2.  China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal.  Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has driven down energy prices. Meanwhile Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria.  Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent.

♦Squeeze #3. Trump and Tillerson just put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan.  Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China.

♦Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India.  President Trump has just embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals.  The play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India.  That’s a big play.

♦Squeeze #4.  President Trump has launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property.  This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.

♦Squeeze #5.  President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer are renegotiating NAFTA.  One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. is to close the 3rd party loopholes, including dumping and origination, that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]

♦Squeeze #5. President Trump has been open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. conclude with NAFTA renegotiation.

♦Squeeze #6.  President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…

♦Squeeze #7.  President Trump has formed an economic and national security aliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan.   It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired today over the Northern part of Japan.  Quite simply, Beijing told him to.

Add all of this up, and you can see the cumulative impact of President Trump’s geopolitical strategy toward China.  The best part of all of it – is the likelihood China never saw it, meaning the sum totality of all of “it”, coming.

Just like Trump’s economic council (a bunch of globalists and Wall Streeters) thinking they were pulling POTUS Trump away from “America First”, only to realize he was simply giving them that impression so that he could advance his agenda….

By the time they realized, it was too late.  Well, so too did China not quite realize the scope and totality of how well thought out and strategic President Trump’s geopolitical economic doctrine really is.

You know why?  Because President Trump doesn’t tell anyone what the final product is, they only know the piece of the puzzle they carry. The picture, the big objective, is inside his head and he doesn’t share it with anyone.  That’s what living amid the Apex Predators in brutal rabid-dog-eat-rabid-dog Manhattan teaches you.  Oh, and he ain’t flinching or moderating his will one bit in carrying it out and putting it all together.

What happens when you surprise Beijing China with a massive awakening that suddenly has them peering toward a horizon showing potential economic defeat?

Well, for that answer we go full circle and remember how China perceives any action as a natural evolution of struggle, so long as it takes them toward victory…

Stay steady.  Avoid the chaff and countermeasures.  It’s all about the economics and the tectonic financial plates he’s shifting.