We are staring in the face of a serious food crisis in Europe as food prices rise continuously, and with further draconian COVID measures within the EU, they are bringing the food supply chains to a standstill. Our models have been warned that this 8.6-year cyclical wave into 2024 will be one of commodity inflation due to SHORTAGES rather than speculative demand. All the indications that the world is heading for a serious food price crisis are in play. The Food Price Index (FFPI) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) averaged 107.5 points in December 2020, an increase of 2.3 points (2.2%) compared to November 2020, which represents an increase for the seventh consecutive month.
With the exception of sugar, all sub-indices of the FFPI recorded slight gains in December, with the sub-index for vegetable oil again rising the most, followed by that for dairy products, meat, and cereals. For 2020 as a whole, the FFPI averaged 97.9 points, a three-year high, 2.9 points (3.1%) higher than in 2019, but still well below its 2011 high of 131.9 points. It is also interesting that the FFPI in 2002 was still 53.1 points. It only increased significantly from the financial crisis of 2007/08, only to then level off in the 90-point range. Since May 2020 it has increased by 18%.
Our models project that the upward trend in the FFPI will intensify going into 2024. With the coronavirus mutating, as we warned ALL viruses do, as such, we have these various strains from Africa, Brazil, UK, and even California, are inspiring politicians to use this as an opportunity to restrict the population even further. These corona measures have extended to the food supply chains, disrupting them just as we see in electronics. For example, the German Fruit Trade Association sees the supply of fruit and vegetables from abroad is at a substantial risk whereby imports are suspended. The reason is the tightening of the corona entry regulation by the federal government. The tightening of the lockdown in Europe is beginning to restrict the supply chains reducing the food supply
This June, Sotheby’s will be auctioning off three of the greatest rarities in the stamp and coin field. The 1933 Double Eagle $20 gold coin, the unique British Guiana One-Cent Black on Magenta, and the unique Inverted Jenny 1918 Plate Block. This is truly an incredible offering from a single collector to have captured three of the rarest and most unique collectibles in history.
It is a bit unusual that a unique stamp from a less than the mainstream region has emerged as the rarest and sole-surviving example of the British Guiana One-Cent Magenta from 1856. It was last sold in 2014 at Sotheby’s for $9.48 million. While it was rediscovered by a 12-year-old schoolboy living in South America in 1873, perhaps due to fantastic marketing, it has emerged as one of the most important stamps in famous collections that have ever assembled. In 1873 L. Vernon Vaughan, a 12-year-old schoolboy living with his family in British Guiana found the stamp among a group of family papers bearing many British Guiana issues. The young philatelist would later sell the stamp for several shillings to another local collector. The British Guiana then entered the UK in 1878, and shortly after, it was purchased in Paris by Count Philippe la Renotière von Ferrary who many considered to be perhaps the greatest stamp collector in history. Then following the war, France seized Ferrary’s collection, which had been donated to the Postmuseum in Berlin, as part of war reparations due from Germany following World War I. The stamp was then sold in 1922 at auction when it was purchased by Arthur Hind, a textile magnate from New York, for its first auction-record price of $35,000. The stamp changed hands moving from the collections of the Australian engineer Frederick T. Small; then a consortium headed by Irwin Weinberg; then by John du Pont of the famous chemical company. Du Pont paid $935,000 for the stamp in a 1980 auction, before it was last sold at auction to Weitzman for the record-setting price of $9.48 million.
Interestingly, a tradition emerged where previous owners of the British Guiana signed the back of the stamp. Weitzman added his own personal mark to the reverse of the stamp inscribing his initials “SW” along with a line drawing of a stiletto shoe as a nod to his legacy in fashion.
This 1933 Double Eagle ($20 gold coin) is the only example that may be legally owned by an individual. It was the coin acquired by King Farouk of Egypt. Stuart Weitzman purchased the coin at a Sotheby’s/Stack’s auction in 2002 for a world record price of US$7.59 million, nearly doubling the previous record. The Director of the United States Mint signed a Certificate of Monetization that, in return for twenty dollars, authorized the issuance of this single example.
In August 2005, the US Mint announced the recovery of ten additional stolen 1933 double eagle gold coins from the family of Philadelphia jeweler/coin dealer Israel Switt, who was the illicit coin dealer identified by the Secret Service as a party to the theft who admitted selling the first nine double eagles that were recovered. Israel Switt had many contacts and friends within the Philadelphia Mint. As the story goes, the Secret Service found that only one man, George McCann, had access to the coins at the time and served prison time for similar embezzlement in 1940. Israel Switt somehow obtained the stolen 1933 double eagles. One theory is that McCann swapped the previous year’s Double Eagles for the 1933 specimens prior to melting, thereby making sure the count was correct. The US mint began striking Double Eagles on March 15, 1933. Roosevelt’s executive order to ban gold was not finalized until April 5. Therefore, on March 6, 1933, the Secretary of the Treasury ordered the Director of the Mint to pay gold only under a license issued by the Secretary, and the United States Mint cashier’s daily statements do not reflect that any 1933 Double Eagles were paid out.
In September 2004, the claimed owner, Joan Switt Langbord, heir to Israel Swift, tried to sell the 10 coins and they had to be surrendered to the Secret Service. In July 2005, the coins were authenticated by the United States Mint after working with the Smithsonian Institution, as being genuine 1933 double eagles. Joan Switt Langbord claimed to have found them in a box and she went to court to have them returned. On October 28, 2010, US court ruled and the issue went to trial in July 2011. On July 20, 2011, after a ten-day trial, a jury ruled unanimously in favor of the United States government and Lanford appealed. At first, the Court of Appeals overruled the jury, but then it went En Banc and the Court of Appeals ruled in favor of the government. The Langbords appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which on April 17th, 2017 denied certiorari.
Hetty Green’s son, Edward Howland Robinson Green (1868-1936), was not so frugal and spent $3 million on coins and stamps. He was an avid collector and bought the famous sheet of 100 inverted airmail stamps in 1918, paying $20,000. The last time this Plate Block appeared on the market was 16 years ago when it sold at auction for $2.97 million.
Meanwhile, the classic Ferraris from the 1980s have nearly doubled in price over the past year.
COMMENT: Dear Mr Armstrong, I wanted to write in to affirm your observation of regular people buying now rather than waiting (The Bull v Bear in the US Markets). I had to buy a new dryer earlier in the year. It took 6 weeks to get the one I had ordered. I wanted to buy a new computer recently. Lenovo showed delivery in 12 weeks for the one I wanted! Another company I looked at was taking pre-orders for delivery beginning the end of May. I paid a little extra and went with a small manufacturer that could deliver within 10 business days. I bought an extra freezer so we can stock up. I actually tried to buy a freezer last year and couldn’t get one at all, so I snapped one up as soon as they were available back in January. My wife just asked me if I wanted to get a new grill for Father’s Day. I said, ‘Let’s buy that right now and put it aside. Who knows what will happen by Father’s Day.’
J
REPLY: I remember the 70s well. Because of OPEC, not just gasoline was rising, but suddenly everything made of plastic was rising. For those who do not know, plastics are made starting with raw materials, such as natural gas, oil, or plants, which are refined into ethane and propane. Ethane and propane are treated with high heat, in a process known as cracking. This is how they’re converted into monomers such as ethylene and propylene. The monomers ethylene and propylene are combined with a catalyst to create a polymer “fluff,” which looks like powdered laundry detergent. Then the polymer is fed into an extruder, where it is melted and fed into a pipe, and the plastic forms a long tube as it cools. So when oil rose in price, so did everything made of plastic. That was much of the inflationary boom between 1976 and 1980.
Everything was rising in price which led to the realization that it was cheap to buy today because it would only cost more tomorrow. I ordered a new refrigerator in December. It finally arrived in March. We are entering a period of shortages so prices will be moving higher as supply is constrained and demand will rise. The other side-effect of lockdowns and the destruction of offices with people working more remotely, everyone is out remodeling or expanding their homes. The construction industry is booming. Just look at the price of lumber.
Welcome to the inflation cycle our computer has been projecting would be built upon shortages
While the general overview of this market by most technicians has been bearish simply based upon how high the market has risen, we are also in an interesting position where the fiction of vaccines is providing some underlying support. Based upon RELIABLE sources, this entire Build Back Better motto and a scheme were developed BEFORE COVID took place. This virus has been one of convenience and I know people were warned to sell stocks and bonds because a virus was coming and that was Jan/Feb 2020. That leaves only two possibilities.
(1) This is really the Fauci virus since this was the precise research he was doing and was told to shut down so he sent it to Wuhan
(2) They knew a natural virus would appear seasonally and they would exploit it as extremely dangerous
While Europe is still trying to push the Great Reset and destroy as much of the economy as possible that is reliant upon fossil fuels, there is no question that this virus has been greatly exploited and exaggerated for political purposes. In the United States, because the power has resided with state governors, it has been more difficult to accomplish the economic contract that we see in Europe especially in Britain where Boris Johnson is in bed with Bill Gates.
Consequently, the US will not see the economic devastation that we are witnessing in Europe because Trump was in charge and made no effort to lockdown the entire country. Additionally, politics is so corrupt they rely on corporate donations and they have been getting a lot of resistance. On the private blog, I warned that the Biden Administration, according to reliable sources, was looking at putting a tax per mile that you drive in addition to the gasoline tax. That would create an army of new government employees and a nightmare of enforcement.
That all said, the real impact of all of this nonsense has been to seriously disrupt the supply chain in everything from food to electrical appliances. These shortages have already led to rising prices and consumers are starting to realize that it may be cheaper to buy today because whatever it is will be more expensive tomorrow. That is the REAL stimulus to inflation – not the increase in money supply which has been exponential since the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis with no inflationary impact. As long as the consumer does not trust the future, then they hoard their cash. Inflation emerges ONLY when they see that it is no longer beneficial to hoard their cash. That is the psychology we are now entering.
While our near-term target in the Dow Jones Industrials remains in the 36,000-37,000 range, we are still in a position to test the 40,000 number on a broader-term. What you must keep in mind are the capital flows. Because we had Trump, that one year of refusing to join this Build-Back-Better agenda was critical in keeping the US economy much stronger compared to Europe, yet neck & neck with China, which will put in a stronger growth pattern number in 2021. The Dow has been making new record highs which the NASDAQ peaked in February on target with our timing models. This disparity is reflecting the international capital flows for foreign money always go for the blue-chips.
To see the future, we must look at the entire world. Analyzing a single market based upon what comment the Fed will make tomorrow is for amateurs. We live in a global economy and it is time we open our eyes to the real world that surrounds us.
It has always been critical to look at everything from a global perspective. Gold declined for 19 years from 1980 into 1999 and the domestic analysis was always wrong. They looked at gold only in dollars. Yet when we looked at gold in a basket of currencies, what looked like a bull market in dollars was really a bear market in world currencies. This is why Socrates looks at everything in all currencies – not just domestic.
Those that keep calling to the collapse of the dollar because of debt have not bothered to look outside the United States. The US sovereign debt is about $28 trillion out of nearly $59 trillion globally. However, add in state and local government with private debt, as we are approaching $300 trillion. This is why US federal debt is still the golden parachute in the world and the fact that US long-term rates are not being manipulated as they are in Europe only offers a greater incentive for capital inflows. We are witnessing US rates rising and this will further attract international capital in the face of the US economy doing far better than Europe.
Re-Posted Mar 16, 2021 from Martin Armstrong Blog/WEF
The entire world of economics has been abandoned without actually admitting it has failed. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is throwing in the towel without actually admitting its policies have totally failed. The IMF was the bastion of Keynesianism, supporting economic Neoliberalism. Of course, the head of the IMF is on the board of the World Economic Forum and is fully onboard with Schwab’s Great Reset. Previously, if you asked if the IMF was a Neoliberal-Keynesian it would have been like asking if the Pope if he was a Catholic.
The complete reversal of the IMF has been at the direction of the World Economic Forum who endorses really a one-world government and economic dictatorship. The old Neoliberalism ideology of free markets, free trade, and small government, are gone. This is part of Schwab’s attempt to control the Fourth Industrial Revolution, yet when we have the ONLY fully functional AI system in the world that writes over 1,000 reports on the state of the financial world, they wanted to shut it down because it also forecasts that they will fail. The current and previous head of the IMF has been a board member of Schwab’s WEF. There is no more independence. The IMF is fully occupied by Schwab.
The IMF has been pushing Schwab’s digital agenda for several years once Christine Legard got a hold of the IMF. What makes this reversal in economic policy so shocking is that the IMF even put out a piece entitled: “Neoliberalism: Oversold?” They are now questioning the entire world of free trade and are advocating more of a fascist state with control by a central authority.
There seems to be a HUGE gap in what people think about cryptocurrency. The European Central Bank (ECB) is working on a scheme to launch “digital euro central bank money” as soon as possible. Many economists praise the project as an “innovation,” as an important and indispensable step in an increasingly digitized world. But economists typically always advocate socialism without ever actually contemplating what is its final destination. The socialist press which has engulfed most of the mainstream is also obvious to what is the final destination.
The ECB has made its intentions known, as has the Federal Reserve, that in declaring a digital currency, both have stated it will be a currency accessible for everyone, robust, secure, efficient, and compliant with the new agenda. What is overlooked is this is to be a central bank currency and they have been quietly suggesting that they will even take direct depositions from non-banks. Nobody seems to really understand what that means. As usual, they simply glass over the statements. In truth, it is circumventing the banking system for they are also not about to bail out the banks in this new world because they are also contemplating the end of government debt. If the government does not borrow, then who needs the bakers?
Mainstream media also refuses to address privacy concerns. To be very clear, the path to digital currency is also one to total surveillance by a state regime that will accelerate considerably in this world where they can pick your face out of a crowd of a thousand.
Anyone who thinks a digital euro is somehow better because it is not fiat money, well it is simply fiat money on steroids. The ECB will not surrender its monopoly of euro production. However, what is being talked about behind the curtain is that a digital euro can either be “account-based” meaning you will keep it in an account held with the ECB directly, or it can be “token-based” where banks receive a “token” that can be transferred from smartphone to smartphone via an app.
The ECB says the digital euro is a “compliment” to cash and bank balances. Clearly, that is like saying the lockdown will be just three weeks when they never had any such intention. Obviously, those who pay in cash find it convenient and want to ensure their anonymity. That will become a thing of the past which is their intention. The objective is to force everyone into paying electronically, i.e., transfer balances through PayPal, Apple Pay, or debit or credit cards.
Back in May/June 1992, we put out a report on the long-term implications of what our computer was projecting. The year 1998 marked the Russian default which sparked the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis and the first time the Federal Reserve had to bail out a hedge fund. Heading into the end of this cycle in 2032, we would see the extinction of 30-year bonds and the demise of the floating exchange rate system. This time what comes after 2032 will be indeed a new world order for what appears on the horizon is the collapse of our present system which is being accelerated by Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum. These forecasts, along with 2016 being the first time a non-politicians would win, sounded far-fetched back then. But this is simply how economies and societies unfold. It was not some premanitio9n. It was just history repeating itself.
“Since 1985 we have been warning that the Nineties would be a period of turmoil marked by greater volatility and a major crisis in world debt. We have also stated time and again that our computer models were forecasting the extinction of 30-year bonds along with the collapse of the floating exchange rate system. While these forecasts may appear bleak, this does not necessarily signify the end of civilization. A similar crisis involving these issues along with war were also the hallmark of the final years during the 18th century. The new world order that emerged thereafter brought forth an era in democracy and capitalism not only in Europe, but also in the birth of the United States.
While many will laugh at these forecasts or attempt to simply dismiss them as too far-fetched to be considered seriously, they merely display their own weakness of a closed mind.”
Gamestop has rallied back during the week of March 8th after all the hoopla. Cyclically, it was 13 years down and it was due for a bounce. Even our pattern recognition models picked up the rally starting in August 2020. Quite frankly, this has all the hallmarks of manipulation, but not what you may think. The classic manipulation is to pump up a market touting some player but the pros have already been in the market. This is how the Buffet manipulation of silver was done in 1998 and even the entire Hunt Brothers silver rally back in 1980.
I knew the Hunt Brothers were buying silver from the early 1970s. At the end, their name was attached to silver and the claim was they were taking it to $100. At that time, the exchange pulled the same maneuver and made it a fraction in margin to go short but 10x that to go long. The Hunts were trapped and could not sell anything without everyone jumping in front of them,
Melvin Capital, which was a small hedge fund lost 53% of its capital in January on GameStop. Not sure how that was possible unless the bet was purely a gut-trade rather than quantitative. The four largest asset managers in the world together own 39 percent of GameStop shares, according to regulatory filings. Those stakes, which are mostly held for years in passive index funds, have collectively gained roughly $1 billion in value since the beginning of this year. The hype of a huge short-squeeze seems to be exaggerated. One hedge fund, Senvest Management, recently boasted to clients that it made more than $700 million from a bet on GameStop in September, the Wall Street Journal reported. Certainly, our model was long, not short and I cannot see even a trend-following-model that would have been short. Melvin Capital to lose 53% does not seem to be very professional to lost that much on a single stock. The long-term is not over in this stock.
QUESTION: Hi Martin Thanks for all the work you do, my day always starts with reading your take on things. I was a member until recently as I am out of a Job. I Live in Toronto, where lockdowns have been the worst and longest in North America. Presently looking to relocate out of the city. I am a Contractor and it seems most of the work in the coming years will be outside the city, as everyone is selling and moving to small towns or their cottages and now want them upgraded for year-round living.
Question: Bitcoin and Crypto. It seems to me that they are using Crypto and pushing it mainstream for a reason. Is it may be a way of increasing the fiat. What I mean is every time someone Buys a Bitcoin they are purchasing with Fiat, so the $10,000.00 someone buys in incremental Bitcoin automatically doubles that Fiat, as the person selling now, has the equivalent of $10 k to purchase something using Bitcoin and the Seller now has $10 k to purchase an item with the Fiat. Could this be another way of getting money into the market without having to Create it at the Fed?
What do you Think CB
ANSWER: No I believe they are allowing it to trade for the sole purpose to mislead people into thinking cryptocurrency is somehow better than cash. Governments are planning to swap all physical money for 100% digital to end hoarding of cash and to be able to increase tax enforcement as well as to reduce the underground economy – i.e. drugs to prostitution. They always blame the people for not paying all the taxes they think they are entitled to rather than realize that no matter how much taxes they collect – it will never be enough.
By allowing Bitcoin to rally, they are creating the image that cryptocurrency is better than cash. It is psychological and the average person is easily fooled. The 911 Porsche came out in 1964 and changed little for the rest of the decade. There was less variation in the 911’s early years as well. The high-performance 911S came out in 1967, as did the famous Targa body style with its removable roof panel. I bought one in 1970 for just slightly under $10,000. By 1980, they were starting at $35,000 and over $50,000 by 1985. The Deutschemark rallied 140% during the 1970s and the German manufacturers priced their cars in marks – not dollars. So the value of the German cars kept rising in dollar terms during the 1970s all because primarily due to the currency, which also led to higher prices for commodities caused by OPEC. This created the image that German cars were better than American. I bought foreign sportscars during the 1970s and would drive them around for 2 years and would get my money back so cars never cost me a dime.
I have told the story before that I bought a 328 Ferrari in London for about £30,000 when the pound fell to $1.03 when it was a $50,000-$60,000 car in the USA. The pound had been over $2 when Ferrari priced what they would sell that car for to Brits. Since the pound fell so hard, the Italians raised the price to £45,000 or maybe £60,000. Then the pound rallied back to almost $2. I drove the car in London for about two years and then sold it used about doubling my money.
This example of the sharp rise in the price of a Ferarri created the false assumption that they were a great investment and people began buying and storing them. It was just the currency — not the car. Once you understand how the FX markets create different impressions of domestic markets, you can suddenly see the world through a whole new set of lenses.
Cryptocurrencies are going through the very same phase. They are creating the illusion that they are somehow better than cash. Even the name “cryptocurrency” is misleading for they are not a currency at all – they are merely a trading vehicle. Do not get all stary-eyed and look at them as better than cash for that is looking at a Ferrari as an investment rather than a car to drive.
I understood the rise in the value of the Ferarri was currency so I also knew when to sell. It is critical to look behind the facade to see what is the true nature of what you are dealing with. Bitcoin is no more a store of wealth than any stock because it rises and falls. Anything that fluctuates cannot be a store of wealth – it is simply an investment vehicle.
The assumption in governments has always been that WE ARE THE PROBLEM – not them! They have really believed that if they could tax the underground economy they would have balanced budgets. We all know that in reality, no matter how much money they collect, they will always spend more. This idea that digital currency will wipe out crime is rather absurd. I was talking to a young person who buys their weed, like so many these days. They make a phone call, it is dropped off in their mailbox, and they pay by some cash transfer application. So they never even see the person anymore. So the move toward digital transactions has not eliminated the underground economy, it has actually improved it making it more efficient.
Meanwhile, the criminals have to learn now how to code in order to hack into systems. It seems that this trend is forcing criminals to become much more professional in their endeavors.
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I thought you were wrong on Bitcoin and that it was a store of value. I can see now that it is only a trading vehicle as you have said. But what made me write to you is I just read that Dorsey is opening up an online bank. You got that right too. It is interesting when I read you and compare to others, you are the one who comes out correct in the end.
My humble apology for being a doubting, Thomas.
GP
REPLY: I know for a fact they have allowed Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to exist in order to condition people into accepting the end of paper money. I cannot understand people who think I am wrong and somehow cryptocurrencies will overthrow the dollar and governments. Really? Does anyone really believe that governments will just relinquish power willingly?
We are headed into a wave of inflation, but one that is constructed on shortages. One need only look at the systemic problems behind the shortages created by a planned economy during the communist era. A goods shortage was the norm. Those under communism were confronted with chronically empty store shelves. When the shelves were replenished on rare occasions, there were long lines that would form outside the stores for blocks. I had a Russian girl who worked for me as a programmer. She said the number one problem coming to America was having to make decisions in the store. She said they had only one type of toilet paper. There are so many here. She didn’t know how to buy anything for each purchase involved a choice and decision.
Even in China, there were ration coupons that became the norm. Just about everything was rationed. This is what takes place when the government is in control of production be it directly, or through what we are beginning to see, outrageous regulations – lockdowns which are hailed by Schwab’s World Economic Forum.
This is NOT really a question of I TOLD YOU SO. This is not a contest of my opinion v someone else. I really have to wonder if some of those mouthing these absurd forecasts are not being made as deliberate misinformation to move people toward a digital currency on behalf of the powers behind the curtain. They defy all reason and show either sublime stupidity or cunning devious misinformation to manipulate society to pull off this Great Reset.
I warned back on January 21, 2021, that BigTech sees the power to overthrow the banks. These powers have declared that they want everyone in the banking system worldwide to end paper money, which is over 1 billion people (just read the IMF). This is why Dorsey, Facebook, YouTube, and Google along with Microsoft were blocking Trump and funneling money to the Democrats who bribed them with the dream of controlling international banking. If governments take Schwab’s solution and default on all its debt, then they NO LONGER NEED THE BANKERS to sell their bonds. Branch banking will come to an end and these people think they will move to a controlled economy with no private debt. They are out of their minds!
I know what I am talking about. I have shaken the hand of Schwab. Have any of these people claiming Bitcoin will overthrow the dollar ever talked to anyone in authority? I have met with board members of the IMF. There are those who are so desperate to convince people not to listen to me because they are part of the entire scam against We the People. I have been approached many times to join these globalists. They preach the Fourth Industrial Revolution is coming, but post comments on YouTube to try to prevent people from looking at Socrates because it forecasts their demise. Sorry Schwab, but Socrates says you fail!
Schwab and his cohorts think locking us all down and destroying the economy and production is a good thing. I cannot see how ANYONE takes a position against me who is not really working against our freedom and human rights. They are so desperate to stop people looking at Socrates or the media to ever cover what Socrates is doing, all in their quest to conquer the world.
So it is not I TOLD YOU SO, this is not a matter of opinion. This is a serious global effort to redesign the world economy and Socrates stands in their way.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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