Why Hedge Funds Have Missed the Moves


COMMENT: Well, Ray Dalio was short the market, missed the rally, and lost almost 5% for the first half of the year. Obviously, they don’t use Socrates – lol.

LB

REPLY: I do not advise Bridgewater and I have no idea if they even subscribe to Socrates. But what you have to realize is that a lot of these hedge funds form their strategy based upon opinion for the broader view. When you have a portfolio of that size, you cannot simply trade it back and forth for each move. The question becomes critical as to where to draw the line to realize your broadview strategy is wrong.

I have stated many times that the trend does NOT begin to shift until you reach the Monthly Level. We saw that in Gold when it finally got through 1362.50 after nearly four years of bouncing off that number. In the case of the Dow Jones Industrials, our hedging models for institutions were long one month from the low and has remained in that position. This is just a hedging model which is either long or short. It at least tends to keep institutions on the right side of the trend for long periods of time.

Aside from the Reversal System, the Energy Model is extremely helpful in identifying the position of the market and if there is a risk of a crash or a rally. The Energy Model turned negative, demonstrating that there was no possibility of a crash as most analysts were forecasting from a gut perspective. A crash would have been possible ONLY if the Energy Model was at a peak. When it is testing the lows or a negative, it is warning that the energy in the market has already dissipated.

We are simply headed into a Monetary Crisis Cycle where the majority of people will never be able to forecast what will unfold from a personal gut perspective. This is not a time for lucky calls. We need objective time-tested analysis that is not clouded by human bias. This is when we need the global approach to let Socrates simply correlate the world to enable us to see the real trends that are in motion. The worst thing you can do is ASSUME you have missed something, as that is typically the kiss of death for investors where they inevitably buy the high or sell the low.

Agricultural Loans Declining Right on Target


One of the most fascinating observations I have made over my career has been that the banks always lend at the top and contract lending at the bottom in every market. Going into 1980, banks were calling me to ask if I wanted to borrow money. Recently, I got a phone call from my bank asking, once again, if I would be interested in a loan. This to me is merely a confirmation that we are approaching a major turning point.

When I look at lending into the agricultural sector, the big Wall Street banks are once again perfectly in line with the cycle. They peaked in loans to farmers back in 2015, and have been declining ever since going into 2020. Bank lending to the agricultural sector peaked with the ECM and we will see it bottom in 2020. Our model will be correct in forecasting the next wave, which will be a cost-push inflationary wave. As the agricultural sectors come back to life, thanks to shortages, then the bankers will be willing to lend once again. The banks are the PERFECT indicator of how not to run a business. They make decisions emotionally and always get the economy dead wrong (i.e mortgage-backed securities peaked in 2007)

The US Treasury Does Have the Constitutional Right to Mint Coins


QUESTION: Marty, You are wrong. The US Treasury can create the money as the Constitution says it can. Article I, Section 8, Clause 5. The Congress shall have the Power to coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures.

To coin is used as a verb. At the time the Constitution was written, to coin money meant to create or to make money. Today’s Dictionary defines to coin as a verb meaning to make or to invent.
Why did you fail to mention this in your Blog today?
TD

ANSWER: Yes, you are correct. I suppose I was referring to the 99.99% of the money supply rather than the coins put into circulation by the US Treasury. President Nixon only closed the gold window in 1971. He did not demonetize “gold” as money under the Constitution. Yes, technically the US Treasury can coin money, but it coins today’s coins. The Fed does not do that. The coinage it creates is minimal in comparison to the overall scheme of things. Since 1913, the printing of currency has been delegated to the Federal Reserve. Prior to 1913, the Treasury issued the paper currency which was backed by coins.

This was the last issue of paper currency issued by the United States Treasury in 1913, the year that the Federal Reserve Act was passed.

Note that in 1934, the Fed actually issued $10,000 bills