Posted originally on Feb 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Germany has overtaken Japanto become the world’s third-largest economy behind the US and China. Japan’s economy contracted by 0.4% in Q4 after a 3.3% decline in Q3. GDP hit $4.2 trillion in Japan in 2023 compared to Germany’s $4.4 trillion.
Japan’s economy is expected to grow by 1.4% this year. Still, Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda held rates negative and warned that the future policy presented an “even more challenging year” ahead. The current interest rate in Japan is -0.10%, as the central bank falsely believed lowered rates would attract investment and stimulate the economy. The Bank of Japan has maintained a negative interest rate policy since 2016 without success.
Japanese public debt is a serious issue and now stands around $9.2 trillion (1.30 quadrillion yen), or 263% of GDP, and is the highest of any developed nation in relation to GDP. Around 43% of that debt is held by the Bank of Japan, and they have been unable to attract investors.
Inflation is gradually easing in Japan, with December producing a 2.6% figure in contrast to October’s 3.3% posting. However, Japan is becoming increasingly involved in overseas battles and recently sent another aid package to Ukraine in solidarity with the West. North Korea is constantly provoking the nation, and the situation in Taiwan is scaring away would-be foreign investors.
This shift in rank is not due to the German economy growing stronger. Germany is in a tough situation thanks to those in Brussels who eliminated its energy independence and implemented harsh regulations on every sector. There was once a time when people referred to Asia’s market as “Asia and Japan,” as Japan was the top runner for the continent. Various factors are contributing to Japan’s decline. I discuss this topic in further detail in the report “The Last Days of Japan.”
Posted originally on Jan 31, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Join Kerry Lutz and renowned economist Martin Armstrong for a captivating discussion centered around the Socrates computer model’s uncanny accuracy in predicting political and market trends since 1985. Discover the model’s compelling projection of a 61% chance for a Republican victory in the upcoming 2024 election and its implications for the political landscape.
Delve into the erosion of confidence in government, potential election irregularities, and the profound impact of deviations from historical election norms. Gain insights into the influence of various political agendas, including discussions about veiled threats and the involvement of influential figures like Klaus Schwab and George Soros in funding Democratic elections.
Transitioning to market forecasts, Martin Armstrong reaffirms his earlier prediction regarding the crucial turning point in January. Explore the far-reaching effects of global capital trends on stock markets, with a focus on how geopolitical events shape investment decisions and influence various stock market indexes.
The conversation also tackles pressing economic issues, such as the potential consequences of increased taxes and selective debt default, the dollar’s reserve currency status, and the challenges faced by farmers and migration trends within the United States. Despite technical challenges, Kerry Lutz and Martin Armstrong exhibit adaptability and resilience, making this discussion a must-watch for those seeking insights into the ever-evolving world of politics and finance.
Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, My wife insists that I write to thank you for making me invest in stocks rather than gold. We split the money, and my wife invested in the Dow with your 2015 ECM turn, and I kept the gold. She beat me on the Dow since it closed in 2023, up about 250%. After reading your input into history, am I correct that this argument of fiat currency is erroneous? It seems like civilizations have risen and fallen, no matter the money system at the time. Could you elaborate on whether this is true or false?
Disappointed goldbug.
ANSWER: Not many men would admit their wives beat them in investments. Many things have been used for money, from bronze and clam shells to emergency paper currency. Those who insist that somehow gold is the only thing that is money do not know their history, and in the process, they have been misled seriously, which actually prevents them from seeing the real problem. Bitcoin is not money nor a medium of exchange because not everyone will accept it. A medium of exchange has to be something that everyone accepts.
There is a common theme that runs through ALL forms of money, and it has NOTHING to do with what is being used as the medium of exchange.
If we are objective, even metal has varied. Bronze was valuable because it could be used to make a tool or a weapon – hence the Bronze Age. It was first used in an ingot form. However, it was cast in the shape of an earlier form of money – sheepskins. Thus, the story of Jason is in search of the golden fleece.
The Romans cast bronze into ingots, and the value was equal to one head of cattle. The first coins of Rome are also bronze, beginning with just lumps and then taking the standardized weight and shape. In Turkey, they began with what was known as electrum, which was a natural alloy mixture of gold and silver found in the riverbeds.
The official first coins were struck in Lydia, modern-day Turkey. This was the first “fiat” money since it was declared a standard value by the king, who applied the image of a lion. This was his badge, certifying its value and weight.
For example, there was a metal that was second to gold, which was really just brass. Orichalcum was the legendary metal of Atlantis, whose buildings were said to have been clad in this rare metal that looked similar to gold. Orichalcum was mined in Atlantis in ancient times, but by the time of Plato, this metal was unknown. Orichalcum was a legend by Plato’s time when he mentioned it in his story of Atlantis in the Critas of Plato. Critias (460–403 BC) says that Orichalcum had been considered second only to gold in value and had been found and mined in many parts of
Nero also experimented with issuing the traditional bronze coinage in Orichalcum (brass). In order to render the Dupondius distinguishable from its half-denomination, Roman As a radiate crown was added to this denomination, leaving the traditional laurel wreath style portrait for the Roman As. The Dupondius reform prevailed until the end of Dupondius’s regular issues, while the experiment in brass died out following Hadrian (117-138AD).
A gold standard will not solve the problem because it is NOT what is being used as money but the system. If governments issued platinum coins and claimed these are worth $100,000 each, that is also fiat, where the government decrees the value. This common thread that runs through everything is the trustworthiness of the government. As long as we have socialism, where politicians promise things, they will always create more money to accomplish that. DEBT = MONEY that pays interest. People also point to the Fed and overlook the fact that it is Congress that creates the money by issuing debt that can be used as an asset in a loan.
Gold will not solve the problem. We need political reform FIRST and then worry about constraining government thereafter.
Posted originally on Jan 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
According to a recent survey by theNew York Federal Reserve, Americans’ inflation expectations have dropped to the lowest level in three years. “How much worse could it get?” the average person assumes. The median expectation is that the inflation rate will be up 3% one year from now, down from a high of 7.1% recorded in June 2022. The survey found that Americans anticipate wages rising by 3% to meet their inflation expectations. Consumers have not been this optimistic since January 2021.
However, the people still anticipate that inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2% target in the longer term, with projections of around 2.6% three years from now and 2.5% five years from now. The Federal Reserve’s last forecast states inflation will decline to 2.2% in 2025 before reaching its lofty 2% target in 2026.
The year began with a massive disruption in the global supply chain and increased cargo costs. There are countless protests occurring among farmers across the world who disagree about the future of crops and food price stability. The leading driver that is not discussed – WAR! America is funding two major conflicts at the moment and sinking deeper into debt. The extreme geopolitical uncertainty and risks associated with war always lead to higher energy prices, increased production costs, and massive government spending, further fueling inflation.
Posted originally on Jan 1, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Believe it or not, on New Year’s Eve, we still celebrate the ancient Roman religion/myth of Janus, who presided over the beginning and end. So one face looked at the past and the other the coming new year. In fact, January is named after Janus. He also represented the beginning and end of the conflict. In ancient Rome, the Temple of Janus stood in the Roman Forum with doors on both ends and inside was a statue of Janus, who is always represented as the two-faced god. The doors of his temple were open in times of war and closed to mark peace. This represented that things could change politically during a war.
Janus, therefore, represented war and peace. This may be particularly true as the Neocons are determined to usher in World War III. They are scheming to create war BEFORE the election just in case Trump wins overwhelmingly to trap him into a war that he cannot negotiate his way out of. The critical periods in 2024 will be January, April, and July/August 2024.
So when we celebrate New Year’s Eve, we say goodbye to the past and look forward to the future, a concept stemming from Janus. So much of today is traditions extending back thousands of years and terms like your Achilles’ Heel, named after the Greek warrior who died at the battle of Troy. It was said that when he was born, his mother dipped him in a sacred river to protect him but held him by his heel, which the water never touched. He was shot in his heel with an arrow and died. This statue shows him pulling the arrow from his heel as he died.
The Greeks were masters in creating stories handed down through the centuries—even the state of New Jersey in Latin in Nove Caesaria – the land of the new Caesar. Even Christmas Day, December 25th, was the feast day of the ancient sun god – Sol.
Our Republican comes from Rome, and Democracy comes from Athens. Legal Codes go back even before Babylon.
So when we celebrate New Year’s Day, let us hope the doors are slammed shut rather than wide open.
Posted originally on Dec 15, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Socrates picked up the Hamas attack, marking July as the high with a directional change, then another directional change in September before the attack, a panic cycle into November, and another directional change. The market then bounced. NBC reported that people were speculating in advance of the attack, and it may have been Hamas or the Israelis shorting the market. Socrates picked it up well in advance. Do you think whoever was using Socrates for the timing? They are starting to pick up on your theory about markets moving ahead of events on inside knowledge. You have never received credit for your discovery. That in itself demonstrates the lack of integrity in the mainstream press.
Anonymous
ANSWER: I do not know. Our model cannot say who it is. It might have been the Neocons funding an offshore slush fund as in Iran Contra or the alleged drug trafficking by the CIA. My concern is they always seem to target me and claim I have too much influence because they do not believe anything can be forecast. Just listen closely to Larry Summers. He says the economy cannot be forecasted, and if you could, it would be because of influence.
Some people would love to shut me down and destroy Socrates. That was what the bankers did, complaining to the CFTC after the Russian collapse. It does not matter. They make up schemes, and the press runs with them and NEVER looks too closely. In my case, the bank stole the money and told the government they had no idea where it was. No journalist ever asked how anyone gets $1 billion out of a bank, and the bank has no idea where it is. That much money has to be wired out, and you then know where the wire went. It did not matter how insane the allegation was; NOBODY in the press ever asked that question.
Mainstream media and Wikipedia are nothing more than the American version of Pravda of the old Soviet Union days, meaning TRUTH. Boris Berezovsky wrote a begging letter to Putin asking him to come home and apologizing for his scheme to become president. The press reported that the government claimed Berezovsky committed suicide. His bodyguard said he was killed by MI6. He was part of the conspiracy to seize control of Russia in 2000. He even called me when I refused to invest $10 billion into Hermitage Capital Management to seize control of Russia with the Bankers and Neocons.
Then, the very guy who tied Clinton together with Epstein also commits suicide and hangs himself but also shoots himself with a shotgun. They called that suicide along with Epstein, and mainstream media always looks the other way. Did he shoot himself first and then hanged himself as he was dying? Or did he hang himself and then shoot himself? Did someone hand him the gun?
Some people do not want anyone forecasting anything that hits too close to home. I’m sure they do not like Socrates’ forecast that governments will not survive past 2032. They locked me up in civil contempt to stop the forecasting. They never could prevent this model from the market and still complied with the forecasts. On the floor in 2007, which was the precise day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index and the very day Goldman sold its time bomb, they were calling it Armstrong’s Revenge on the floor.
The one that got me into trouble was when I forecasted the collapse of Russia in 1998 and that the stock market would make its high on the ECM which was July 20th. The London FT covered that forecast, and they were claiming it would not have happened but for me. Then the 9/11 World Trade Center attack also took place on the precise day of the Pi Target of that wave.
The ECM Pi target even picked the day Hitler was offered the Chancellorship. That was before I was born, so how did I have the influence to make that happen?
The model picked the very day of 9/11, the ERM Crisis, where Soros made his fortune.
Then there was the very day Greece petitioned the IMF for a loan, for they were broke, starting the financial crisis and the massive migration into Europe to distract from the Greek debt crisis.
The ECM even picked the precise day of the very day of the low for the 1987 crash – October 19th, 1987. All of these events were forecast, and none of them had to do with my “influence,” so it does not matter if they kill me or call it a suicide like Berezovsky of Epstein; it will not change the forecasts. Sorry, 2032 comes if I am here or not. Or perhaps I hang myself, then shoot myself with a shotgun, and they call that as usual – suicide.
In 2009, I warned that the low would be in place and the market would rally to New Highs would unfold as we rallied into the 8.6-year wave in 2015. Barrons ran a story on June 25, 2011, stating the forecast for a long-term bull market. The Dow was only 11450 – about one-third of its present value. They thought that was a funny forecast.
The number of turns following the ECM is astonishing. You cannot make up this stuff. Nevertheless, the world rejects the idea of any ability to forecast outside of fundamental guessing.
Posted originally on Dec 12, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s data shows that auto loans have surpassed student loans, becoming the second-largest debt burden for U.S. consumers. Auto loan debt has reached $1.582 trillion, exceeding the $1.569 trillion in student loan debt. This surge in auto loan debt is attributed to rising vehicle prices, leading consumers to take out larger loans at higher rates.
Lenders have responded to this trend by tightening restrictions on auto financing, with approximately 30% of lenders reporting significantly tighter lending standards. The pressure for companies to switch to EVs and inventory shortages have contributed to the increase in vehicle pricing, resulting in consumers financing more expensive vehicles.
At the same time, the government is moving full speed ahead to reach their target of 50%+ EVs by 2030. Thousands of auto dealers have penned the Biden Administration to explain how this policy is significantly hurting their business. The public is drowning in debt over mostly gas-powered purchases, and EVs are significantly more expensive to purchase and maintain. Car manufacturers are focused on producing cars of the future rather than autos that fit the budget and lifestyle of the middle class.
Bidenomics believes student debt should be waived for those who knowingly took on the debt. Will those supporting Bidenomics also push to forgive this mounting auto debt? Like diplomas, people may realize their EVs cost more than they’re worth and they cannot keep up the payments. Perhaps the public, including those who do not own cars, should subsidize these car purchases through taxes since that is the same premise as student loan forgiveness.
The World Economic Forum is in partnership with global governments to end private car ownership by 2050. Owning a car is becoming an increasing luxury. Insurance costs could be a topic for another time as most states have seen their premiums skyrocket. Major cities around the globe like London and New York City are implementing congestion and traffic taxes as well.
Decades ago, someone could purchase a nice car with less than a month’s pay. Kelly Blue Book states thatthe average price of a new car was $48,008 as of March 2023, which is 27.8% more than pre-COVID pricing. The average cost of a crossover or SUV now ranges between $30,353 and $74,502, with costs rising by over 6% every year since 2020. We will see car ownership become an increasing luxury.
Posted originally on Dec 7, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
A recent study by Achieve revealed that despite a 37% increase in income, many Americans are facing financial challenges due to rising costs and high interest rates, leading to a surge in personal debt. The average monthly participation in debt resolution programs increased by 119% in the first nine months of 2023 compared to 2020. Wages are rising but they simply cannot keep up with the growing cost of living.
The typical household income of individuals enrolled in debt resolution programs was $59,900 in 2023, a notable increase from $43,598 three years prior. The study’s findings reflect the impact of inflation, a challenging interest rate environment, and the winding down of government stimulus on consumer debt levels. The report underscores the need for measures to address the rising debt burden and its potential impact on income growth.
The study also found that people are facing financial hardship significantly earlier in life. The average age of someone facing debt resolution was 52 in 2020, but that age has since decreased to 44 in 2023. Nearly 40% of people entering debt resolution programs are Millennials, which is also the age demographic of those with the sharpest increase of credit card delinquencies. Nearly everyone is living on credit as balances rose $154 billion YoY, marking the most significant increase since 1999.
No one feels relieves when new inflation reports are released. Governments can release whatever data they like but the fact remains that the price of EVERYTHING has become too much to maintain. Inflation allegedly peaked in June 2022 at 9.1% but I cannot think of anything that has dramatically decreased in price since then.
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