Posted originally on Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The world’s largest pension fund, the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, reported a $61.1 billion loss for the first quarter of the year. Half of the fund’s $1.5 trillion assets under management (AUM) are within overseas markets, and although susceptible to currency fluctuations, the true problem lies in the fund’s other 50% of its portfolio—government bonds split 25% domestically and 25% foreign.
Any pension fund that holds government debt in size and thinks it will return to normal is delusional, as I mentioned back in 2021. They have faith that yields will recover when that is simply not the case. The entire idea of pensions has been set around the average 8 % return in interest rates, but it has been pension funds that are primarily the cause of lower interest rates, not the central banks. The number of pension funds out there created a bid for long‑term bonds.
Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among advanced economies. The Bank of Japan owns over 50% of JGBs, making it the largest single holder, which has created a rigged market. Yields have been artificially lowered, and capital allocation has been distorted for years. Pension funds, banks, and insurance companies have been locked into JGBs, not because they want yield, but because regulation and policy have given them no choice.
As for Japanese pensions, the large aging population and shrinking workforce have led to fewer taxpayers capable of supporting this growing demographic. GPIF began moving into foreign assets to escape the BOJ’s doomed policy of negative interest rate,s but it is trapped overall. Japan looks to GPIF as a sign of economic confidence, and these losses are a warning.
Socrates has issued bearish long-term outlooks on the Japanese bond market and warns of sovereign debt crises that will directly impact pension systems. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) pay absolutely nothing, and yet GPIF is required to hold a portion. When there is no buyer left, the burden will fall on the Bank of Japan, and that is simply unsustainable. As the computer has warned, the sovereign debt crisis will begin in Japan before spreading like a contagion.
Posted originally on Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) issued a new report that found tariffs are not to blame for inflation. In fact, the cost of imported goods has fallen this past year to a lower level than that of overall goods.
“CEA’s directional findings using this method of analyzing the PCE are consistent across core goods (excluding food and energy), durables (which last for at least three years), and nondurables,” the report reads. “The import contribution to inflation includes both the direct impact of imported final goods for consumption and indirect effects of imported intermediate inputs.”
Imported goods fell by 0.8% while the price of overall goods remained stagnant. The PCE index rose 0.4% from December to May or a 1% annualized rate, according to the CEA’s findings. Yet, the imported portion of PCE fell by 0.1% during the same period.
“The results clearly show the price of imported components declining, starting in March, while overall prices were close to unchanged or increased slightly,” the report reads. “Cumulatively, overall PCE prices have increased by about 1.1% since December compared to about 0.2% for PCE import prices. However, those values include pricing for services, which tend to have lower import intensity, so the divergence could be due to stickier services prices.”
The agency concluded “there is no clear trend break” this year in prices, despite the headlines claiming tariffs are the reason inflation remains above target.
Posted originally on Jul 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Every single person who was on the January 6th Commission that was trying to call it an insurrection to use the 14th Amendment to prevent Trump from even running for office should be hauled out and put on trial under 18 U.S. Code § 595 – Interference by administrative employees of Federal, State, or Territorial Governments. The objective of that entire committee was treasonous, and its members should be put on trial for the world to see. The judges who presided over the January 6th cases should also be disbarred. Until this is carried out, the Deep State will survive and prevail.
There can be no free society or equal protection of the law until every member of that committee is criminally charged and put on trial.
Posted originally on Jul 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
NEW EPISODE: Martin Armstrong's Warning for America, Geological Crisis, Europe's Collapse
Martin Armstrong of @StrongEconomics joins me to talk about the futility of neocon wars, why Europe wants to drag America into their wars, why manufacturers have moved out of America, what… pic.twitter.com/ghMSujJRIl
Posted originally on Jul 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Pam Bondi has made perhaps the most serious mistake of her entire life that she will look back on for years to come. Epstein’s saga was not some pedophile BS – it was the most sophisticated blackmail organization in modern history. As I have said before, I was personally warned that they would use women to try to get into my operation. That was back in the ’90s. This was nothing more than a honey-pot operation. It is understandable that Bondi has not found any “incriminating ‘client list‘” related to Epstein, triggering significant backlash among both Democrats and Republicans, when this was really a blackmail operation, not pedophiles.
The real question remains FOR WHOM WAS EPSTEIN OPERATING? Was this for the CIA or the Mossad? People wrongly think that releasing the “client list” will expose pedophiles. If that were the only issue, the Democrats had these files before the election and would have used them. Nevertheless, the MAGA base would like to see Trump FIRE Blondi without a doubt. She has become a massive liability and will impact the elections in 2026. Bondi has refused to tell the truth, pretending there are no files, rather than explaining that this was a blackmail scheme operating for some intelligence operation was the wrong move.
Even the Daily Mail is now reporting the chaos at the FBI and the rumblings behind the curtain that even Kash Patel and deputy Dan Bongino are considering quitting over Epstein files after a furious clash with Pam Bondi. Even though Trump had promised transparency, this is a scandal for which his presidency will also be remembered. Granted, this is far from just some pedophile operation. This one dives head-first into the Deep State.
As far as Maxwell being in jail, in New York City, found guilty following a one-month jury trial, of conspiracy to entice minors to travel to engage in illegal sex acts, conspiracy to transport minors to participate in illegal sex acts, transporting a minor to participate in illegal sex acts, sex trafficking conspiracy, and sex trafficking of a minor. CONSPIRACY is the favorite of tyrants for you do not have to prove you even committed a crime. All you need to prove is that there was an agreement – nothing more. So there does not have to be a client list. All they had to tell the jury was that Maxwell agreed with Epstein to get 16-17-year-old girls to entice their targets for blackmail. They did not have to prove that they had sex with a target. They did not have to prove that any target KNEW the girl was 17 vs 18. The jury only needs to find that you agreed to anything. Then you are guilty.
The Roman Maximinus I used Conspiracy, a crime still used by the United States, yet abandoned in Europe, Russia, and China. Conspiracy is the law of tyrants, for it allows the conviction of someone for a crime they did not commit, nor even attempted to commit, but you claim they “intended” purely as a mental state to commit in the future. Maximinus I engaged in legal persecution. He used conspiracy effectively and tore the Roman economy apart at its seams. He charged a noted Senator by the name of Magnus with conspiracy against the emperor, found him guilty, executed him, and then arrested 4,000 others, claiming they conspired with him to depose him. He then used criminal law to claim they had committed a conspiracy, and that, of course, justified confiscating all their property as well.
If you look closely, about 25% of all federal crimes are only conspiracy (18 U.S.C. § 371), where they do not have to prove you committed an actual crime, according to analyses of USSC data and reports from the Department of Justice (DOJ). The major conspiracy statute is used in drug cases, 21 U.S.C. § 846, which is most often used. Analysis of drug cases reveals that conspiracy is a dominant charge in federal drug trafficking cases, often being the primary or only charge used.
The DOJ Will Seek Death Penalties for Conspiracy
Indeed, conspiracy charges are frequently and strategically used in federal murder cases. They are a powerful tool for federal prosecutors to avoid hard evidence, often serving several critical purposes. Conspiracy charges allow prosecutors to hold all participants in a criminal agreement responsible for the murder, not just the person who pulled the trigger (the “triggerman”). Anyone remotely connected can be executed under conspiracy even if they did not know someone else was going to kill someone. One famous case in the Southern District of New York charged three separate Italian groups with conspiracy to murder the same individual, when they did not have to prove anyone killed the individual; all they had was his car left at the airport, and nobody saw him ever since. All three Italian families were found guilty with no body and just theories.
Overcoming Evidentiary Hurdles is the #1 objective of using conspiracy. Proving conspiracy (an agreement and overt acts) can sometimes be easier than proving the specific intent and act of murder itself, especially for individuals further removed from the killing. Evidence like communications, meetings, financial transactions, or preparatory actions can establish the conspiracy.
Then there is the Pinkerton Liability. Under the Pinkerton doctrine (based on Pinkerton v. United States, 328 U.S. 640 (1946)), conspirators can be held liable for foreseeable crimes committed by their co-conspirators in furtherance of the conspiracy, even if they didn’t directly participate in or intend that specific crime. This is crucial in murder cases. This is what makes the US conspiracy law the law of tyrants. They can sentence you to death for the actions of someone else with no requirement to prove you even knew, so much for justice.
Conspiracy to commit murder (often charged under 18 U.S.C. § 1117) carries a potential penalty of up to life imprisonment, or if death results, potentially the death penalty or life without parole. Conspiracy charges are not just used; they are a fundamental strategy in federal prosecutions. They allow the government to achieve its virtual 99% conviction rate. There will never be freedom in the United States until the charge of CONSPIRACY is repealed.
Posted originally on Jul 11, 2025 by Hannah Jackson
As some of you may have noticed, I am back on social media. The idea is to post video-based content of interviews (snippets) as well as shorter-form text on Twitter.
I will be posting a story on Instagram where you can ask questions. I will be answering them on video once a month.
The X (Twitter) account is my personal one, which I am starting to use again. The original Armstrong Economics account is also up and active.
Posted originally on Jul 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Internal Revenue Service has deemed it legal for tax-exempt places of worship to back political candidates. The Trump Administration pushed for this measure, repealing a 70-year tax code enacted in 1954 by then-Senator Lyndon Johnson known as the “Johnson B. Amendment.”
The Johnson Amendment deemed it necessary for religious organizations to maintain nonpartisan status to protect the Constitutional conditions of separation of church and state. The law forbids churches and other religious organizations from using funds to endorse political candidates. Organizations could vocally support a candidate, but by law, they were unable to financially enter politics as their tax-exempt status came with a nonpartisan clause. All of this is now changing.
“Communications from a house of worship to its congregation in connection with religious services through its usual channels of communication on matters of faith do not run afoul of the Johnson Amendment as properly interpreted,” the IRS said in the joint filing Monday with theNational Religious Broadcastersgroup in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas.
“When a house of worship in good faith speaks to its congregation, through its customary channels of communication on matters of faith in connection with religious services, concerning electoral politics viewed through the lens of religious faith, it neither ‘participate[s]” nor ‘intervene[s]’ in a ‘political campaign,’ within the ordinary meaning of those words,” the filing said.
Last year, the National Religious Broadcasters (NRB) filed a lawsuit against the IRS, claiming that the Johnson Amendment violated their First Amendment rights. The organization believes that the First Amendment protects them from any restrictions on freedom of speech and freedom of exercise of religion. Yet, these places of worship also enjoy tax code 501(c)(3) that prevents the government from collecting taxes. In Branch Ministries v. Rossotti (2000), a church attempted to sue after its tax-exempt status was revoked for financially backing a political candidate. The court once again ruled that the Johnson Amendment did not violate the First Amendment.
The court stated that the church was not prohibited from freedom of speech, as they could vocalize their support. However, the tax benefit comes with the condition of remaining nonpartisan. The ruling found the burden was not “substantial” enough to violate constitutional protections.
Repealing the Johnson Act would drastically alter political endorsements as these religious institutions not only have massive funds to spare but could turn them into tax-deductible super PACS. Dark money would certainly flow through these organizations to alter politics as any funds to the church or religious organization could be untraceable. Foreign citizens and nations could also anonymously funnel unlimited amounts of money through these tax-deductible super PACS and directly influence domestic elections.
Jewish temples would become the new AIPAC, the Catholic Church could install their candidate of choice, which would NOT have been Donald Trump, mosques would use donations as they deemed fit, the list goes on and on.
Churches and places of worship are tax-exempt because they maintain “benevolent neutrality,” which dates back to medieval England before it was brought over to colonial America. Political donations are not charitable work or philanthropy. The IRS is attempting to blur the lines between church and state. Conservatives may think that this measure could only benefit their cause, but that is far from the truth, as what constitutes a religious organization is quite vague in the United States. Then public trust of religious institutions would erode as they would be seen as political entities. The core mission of assisting those in need would be completely lost.
Posted originally on Jul 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Minutes Report by the Federal Reserve indicates that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 29-30. FOMC members unanimously maintained the borrowing range between 4.25%-4.5% where it has stood since December 2024. The central bank knows that it has limited power to control inflation through rate cuts, and stimulating demand is a moot point when the government is the largest borrower.
Instead of noting that the government simply borrows in perpetuity, Fed members focused on uncertainty surrounding tariffs and a potentially weakening labor market. Chairman Jerome Powell stated that cutting rates was a “closer call” as the 2% inflation target as been out of reach for several years. “With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated,” the FOMC minutes said. The last CPI reading was 2.7% with the PCE coming in at 2.4%.
The ongoing Trump v Powell feud is potentially spilling over into policy. Despite non-foreign-born citizens picking up over 2 million jobs as a direct result of deportation efforts, the Fed believes that the weakening labor market could be the result of deporting cheap labor. “Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased. As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy,” the minutes said. Unemployment fell to 4.1% with June posting an increase of 147,000 jobs.
The Fed is also blaming Trump’s tariff policies for inflation. “Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer,” the Fed Chair told reporters in June. “We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.” Powell is confusing a one-time price adjustment with a monetary-driven inflationary wave that began in 2015 and soared after the pandemic. As previously noted, “almost all” participants saw trade policy as an upside risk to inflation. “Many participants noted that the eventual effect of tariffs on inflation could be more limited if trade deals are reached soon, if firms are able to quickly adjust their supply chains, or if firms can use other margins of adjustment to reduce their exposure to the effects of tariffs,” the Minutes stated.
A ”couple” of members stated rate cuts could happen at the next meeting, with Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller going on record to say that they believe rate cuts are appropriate this month. “Several” officials said the overnight rate “may not be far” from target, believing a bit of adjustment could bring inflation to target. The “dot plot” of individual officials indicates a divide on the outlook of cuts.
The Minutes Report noted that two rate cuts could potentially happen in 2025, followed by additional cuts over the next few years. Powell has less than a year left in office, and the president is certain to appoint someone who will abide by his policy that he sees through the eyes of a borrower and not a lender.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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