Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Apr 24 2025

Powell’s Job Secured – Who Will Replace Him in May 2026?


Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong   

JeromePowellFedChair

Donald Trump has come out to say that he had no plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. “No, I have no intention of firing him,” Trump told reporters. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,” the president added. “This is a perfect time to lower interest rates.”

Perhaps the president realized he did not have the power to fire the Fed Chair, as I have outlined. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett declared less than a week ago that the administration was seeking loopholes to fire Powell. Around the same time, Trump declared that he did have the power to fire Powell, ““If I want him out of there, he’ll be out real fast.”

Powell, who was appointed under Trump’s first term, has face countless issues from presidents who refuse to align fiscal policies to meet monetary goals. Donald Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower interest rates dating back to his first term. Powell broke step with Washington and announced that former President Joe Biden’s reckless spending was endangering future generations. Now, Trump is once again pressuring Powell to drop rates despite the fact that QE policies have failed, and he is viewing the economy as a buyer rather than a lender.

Powell is likely eager for retirement, slated for May 2026. The president does not have the power to fire the chairman, but he does have the authority to appoint the next one. Fed governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, economist Art Laffer, and Larry Kudlow are all potential contenders for the job based on reports. Some believe Warsh is the frontrunner for the role, and Warsh himself advised Trump not to fire Powell before his term was due to expire.

KevinWarsh

Kevin Warch is an academic without real trading experience who has been part of the revolving door between Wall Street and Washington. Warsh, 55, has a hawkish stance on inflation, and although he backs Republican priorities such as reduced taxation and deregulation, he does not fully support Trump’s stance on how the Fed should operate.

Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011, and failed to see the underlying risks that would lead to the 2008 Great Recession. Warsh played a direct role in the negotiations that would later lead to the Lehman Brothers’ downfall, supporting the decision to allow Lehman to fail, spurring global financial panic. “The die was already cast” before bankruptcy, Warsh told CNBC. He failed to grasp the global nature of this decision, which was not a surprise but a deliberate choice to allow the firm to fail.

He was against the central bank’s QE policies in 2010 and warned that it would not aid in economy recovery. He resigned from the Fed’s Board of Governors in 2011 after opposing plans to purchase $600 billion in bonds to push more money into the US economy. Warsh blamed the central bank for enabling reckless government spending during the pandemic by excessively printing money. He sided with Trump in pointing blame at the Fed for permitting inflation to rise in the post-COVID economy. Warsh still believes in managing the economy through intervention, rather than letting the business cycle play out naturally. Tinkering with the system only causes the cycles to become more volatile.

May 7, 2026, is the next major target on the ECM–8.6 years from the August 2017 turning point, and two years from the critical May 2024 benchmark we just passed. Something historic is brewing for May 2026.

Apr 24 2025

Los Angeles Raises Sales Tax to Combat Homelessness – Endless Corruption


Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong   

California’s homeless crisis presents the public sector with a valuable political opportunity to expand its resources. The state and cities continually increase spending to combat the homeless epidemic without producing any results. Funding vanishes into the coffers of the public sector, with the number of people on the streets continuing to rise. Continuing their path of greed, Los Angeles has announced it will raise its sales tax to 11.25% to assist the unhoused.

The California State Auditor released a report last year that revealed California’s programs to combat homelessness have been utterly ineffective. Nine agencies funded by the state have received billions from 2018 to 2023, but homelessness is rapidly rising, and California hosts the largest homeless population in the nation. What have these public agencies done with the $24 BILLION they were awarded to combat homelessness?

As for Los Angeles, the city voted in 2016 and 2017 to raise taxes, collecting $4.6 billion to support the unhoused. Measure HHH provided a $1.2 billion bond to build 10,000 low or no-income housing units. Los Angeles County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas championed this program, but was later arrested for bribery and corruption, found guilty, and sentenced to 42 months in prison. He continued to make public appearances with Mayor Karen Bass during the appeal process.

Va Lecia Adams Kellum, former chief executive of the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority (LAHSA), signed a $2.1 million contract for Upward Bound House to use taxpayer funds to house the homeless. She attempted to funnel those funds through her husband’s business but was caught in the process. LA Mayor Karen Bass, again, was in full support of Adams Kellum. The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors forced Adams Kellum to resign earlier this month after millions of dollars went unaccounted.

Councilman Jose Huizar, again, promised to reduce the number of people living on the streets and was one of the architects of Measure HHH. Huizar was found guilty and sentenced to 13 years imprisonment for accepting $1.5 billion in bribes from developers, spending some of the funds in his possession on prostitutes as well. He paid a $600,000 bribe to a Chinese real estate developer to clear himself of a sexual harassment lawsuit using public funds.

Homeless

Mayor Bass maintains that homelessness is a result of greedy residents. Measure A passed this month, which is a half-cent countywide sales tax that is expected to generate $1 billion annually. Approximately 33.75% of those funds will go to the corrupt LA County Affordable Housing Solutions Agency (LACAHSA). Measure H is also in effect, which is a quarter-cent countywide sales tax set to expire in 2027. Again, they expect this measure to generate $1 billion annually. Measure ULA is also in place to require those purchasing luxury real estate to contribute to addressing the homeless epidemic. This measure includes a 4% property tax on sales over $5 million and a 5.5% tax on sales over $10 million. This third program is also expected to generate $1 billion in annual revenue.

Los Angeles and the entire state of California are openly looting taxpayers. Read the state’s plan to cover its budget deficits – endless taxes. Even residents who choose or are forced to leave the state will incur taxes to cover government thievery. Los Angeles is one of countless examples of how the public sector will virtue signal to rob Peter, not to pay Paul, but to pay themselves, as they are not hiding the corruption. We saw it on a national level with USAID after the DOGE audit. Expanding the public sector only benefits the government, but the government slowly expands its power by proclaiming it can solve all problems and exploiting empathy. Give to us so we can give to others. If you vote against aiding your neighbor through taxation, you are greedy, as Chuck Schumer boldly proclaimed. Social justice policies teetering on socialism simply ensure that everyone is equal in poverty, aside from those at the very top.

Apr 24 2025

MAHA – Petroleum-Based Food Dye Ban


Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

The Food and Drug Administration and the US Department of Health and Human Services have announced a ban on all petroleum-based synthetic food dyes beginning in 2026. Robert F. Kennedy has warned for years that America’s food supply has been compromised with chemicals that have aided in causing America to be the sickest nation in the developed world.

The FDA is taking the following actions:

  1. Establishing a national standard and timeline for the food industry to transition from petrochemical-based dyes to natural alternatives.
  2. Initiating the process to revoke authorization for two synthetic food colorings—Citrus Red No. 2 and Orange B—within the coming months.
  3. Working with industry to eliminate six remaining synthetic dyes—FD&C Green No. 3, FD&C Red No. 40, FD&C Yellow No. 5, FD&C Yellow No. 6, FD&C Blue No. 1, and FD&C Blue No. 2—from the food supply by the end of next year.
  4. Authorizing four new natural color additives in the coming weeks, while also accelerating the review and approval of others.
  5. Partnering with the National Institutes of Health (NIH) to conduct comprehensive research on how food additives impact children’s health and development.
  6. Requesting food companies to remove FD&C Red No. 3 sooner than the 2027-2028 deadline previously required.
FoodToxicDye

“For too long, some food producers have been feeding Americans petroleum-based chemicals without their knowledge or consent,” said HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. “These poisonous compounds offer no nutritional benefit and pose real, measurable dangers to our children’s health and development. That era is coming to an end. We’re restoring gold-standard science, applying common sense, and beginning to earn back the public’s trust. And we’re doing it by working with industry to get these toxic dyes out of the foods our families eat every day.”

Europe and Canada has already banned the majority of these ingredients. It is especially concerning that these food dyes are put into processed foods that are marketed toward children. Not only are these dyes prevalent in foods, but they are also laced in our medications. Again, the US has the highest rates of childhood obesity and preventable health issues in the developed world.

“Cancer and diabetes in young people is going up at an alarming rate and nobody seems to know why. We have to turn our attention to underlying causes such as chemicals and toxins that children are exposed to — not just more insulin and chemotherapy,” US FDS Commissioner Marty Makary stated.

Synthetic food dyes (e.g., Red 40, Yellow 5, Yellow 6, Blue 1) can be found in candies, beverages, cereals, and candies. Canada has issued warning labels on these dyes, stating that they are linked to hyperactivity, behavioral issues, and allergies in children. Carmoisine and Allura Red have been completely banned. The European Union does not permit these dyes in its foods. Global corporations like McDonald’s use natural ingredients in their franchises abroad, for example, while feeding US consumers outright cheap poison because the government gave them permission to do so.

This is merely a first step in an extremely long list of ingredients that are banned throughout the world but permitted in America. Recombinant bovine growth hormones (rBGH/rBST) are fed to American dairy cows to promote milk production. Canada banned this hormone in 1999 after it was found to cause cancer and elevate insulin levels. The EU, New Zealand, and Australia, to name a few, have long banned this unnecessary carcinogen.

Olestra or Olean is an approved fat substitute. One may see a product marketed as “low fat” or “low calorie” on American shelves, but they are often using this as an alternative to reduce the calorie content. This ingredient has been found to cause severe digestive problems, nutrient absorption issues, and deficiencies in fat-soluble vitamins. Again, the EU, UK, and Canada do not permit manufacturers to add this ingredient to their food.

Potassium bromate is commonly found in baked goods in America as it acts as a dough conditioner to enhance the baking process. This chemical has been directly linked to cancer, kidney, nervous system, and thyroid issues. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) declared it to be a carcinogen. Still, the FDA has permitted Americans to consume this poison. California banned the chemical statewide in 2023 under the Food Safety Act.

Azodicarbonamide (ADA), Roxarsone (Arsenic-Based Additive), and Artificial Trans Fats (Partially Hydrogenated Oils)  are a few other ingredients KNOWN to cause severe health issues, but American regulatory agencies permit manufacturers to lace it in America’s food supply. It is no conspiracy that known poisons have been added to countless products found in America’s food supply. The food manufacturers benefit because these ingredients are often cheap, addictive, and visually appealing. Big Pharma and the insurance companies benefit from a nation of sick people. The Make America Healthy Again campaign should be championed as common-sense legislation that will guarantee Americans a better quality of life.

Apr 24 2025

Zelensky Refuses Any Peace Deal Taking Orders from EU & NATO – War Forever


Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Zelensky Profile

Donald Trump berated Zelenskyy on April 23, after he said Ukraine would not legally recognize Russian control over Crimea. He said he will not accept ceding any territory, even though this is against the Minsk Agreement that was supposed to allow the Donbas to vote on separation, since they are Russians who have lived there for hundreds of years.

May 2 2014 Odessa Trade Unions House

These people have a human right to separate from Ukraine, which hates Russians, and they were killing Russians on the street in Odessa during the 2014 Revolution, which prompted this entire separatist movement. Trump recently presented a proposal to end the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war. Vice President JD Vance has indicated that the plan would freeze the fighting along the current territorial lines. Zelensky refuses to cede anything and would start immediately, wholesale discrimination and attacks on ethnic Russians in the entire region.

Yogoslavia_map_of_breakup

This entire region is laced with ethnic hatreds that extend back centuries and sometimes millennia, like Greeks vs Turks. When Yugoslavia broke up, it did so along ethnic lines. The Kosovo War was a bloodshed, and NATO got involved when there was no legal basis to do so. This is what should have been done with Ukraine.

Ukraine Nazi Parade

Ukraine joined the Nazis and engaged in ethnic cleansing of Russians, Jews, Polish, and Hungarians. This has been part of the culture. Bandara was their leader and is considered to be a National Hero. He wanted to create Ukraine, which was never a country, by slaughtering all those who were of non-Ukrainian blood.

bandera_torch parade

During the 2014 Revolution, they were displaying Bandera’s image everywhere. This was their time to reignite their ethnic cleansing, and only because they were killing Russians were they tolerated and their inhuman activity ignored by the West.

CIA protected Ukrainian Nazi Bandara

The CIA protected the Ukrainian Nazis because they hated Russians. Zelensky was a Neonazi pretending to be a Christian before becoming president like George Soros. The Ukrainian people I speak to want peace. They question if they are allowed to have peace without the permission of London and NATO, who want more bloodshed. Zelensky does NOT represent the Ukrainians.

War Cartoon

They are sick and tired of being used as expendable pawns in the geopolitical chess game. Beware of mid-May. I fear that the EU wants war so badly as a distraction from the crumbling EU structure, so they push war with Russia. Be on guard for mid-May.

Week of May 12th to Week of May 26th

Apr 23 2025

WHO Finalizes Pandemic Treaty


Posted originally on Apr 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

WHO logo

The World Health Organization (WHO) has been scheming to finalize the Pandemic Treaty to ensure global cohesion during the next pandemic. Over 190 member nations have agreed to surrender sovereignty in the name of public health, permitting an unelected organization of individuals to detail how they will respond to the next round of government imposed biological warfare.

WHO Director General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who is not a medical doctor but a Klaus Schwab appointee, declared this as a global victory. Interestingly, Schwab resigned as soon as the treaty was finalized. “The nations of the world made history in Geneva today,” Tedros declared. “In reaching consensus on the Pandemic Agreement, not only did they put in place a generational accord to make the world safer, they have also demonstrated that multilateralism is alive and well, and that in our divided world, nations can still work together to find common ground, and a shared response to shared threats.

Schwab and Tedros WHO

The One Health approach defines this treaty, which vaguely recognizes that all life on this planet is connected and therefore, under their rationale, requires a unified approach to problems. The WHO cooperates with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) to form the “Quadripartite” partnership that aims to promote the One Health agenda. The One Health High-Level Expert Panel (OHHLEP), controlled by the WHO, provides “the science” to guide all mandates.

This treaty provides a group of unelected officials with immense power. There are new financial terms outlined under the new treaty. Manufacturers producing pandemic-related products now must allocate 10% of production to the WHO at no cost, and they must deduce costs by 10% for the WHO as well. Members already pay annual fees to the WHO, but they will now be required to pool funding into a centralized financial mechanism (CFM).

Covid Conspiracy R

Governments and international organizations will be expected to pay into the CFM. Developed nations will be forced to pay for others as each member has “common but differentiated responsibilities” based on GDP. However, there are discussions that private entities may also be forced to pay to ensure financial preparedness. The funds will be allocated at the direction of the unelected officials at the Quadripartite.

The WHO ensured that there was no transparency during COVID-19. The organization continually protected China at the direction of the Chinese Communist Party, despite the United States being the top donor to the organization. The White House has finally dispelled the COVID narrative perpetuated by “the science” and unelected organizations. They can and will do this again.

As noted by the White House:

Social Distancing: The “6 feet apart” social distancing recommendation — which shut down schools and small business across the country — was arbitrary and not based on science. During closed door testimony, Dr. Fauci testified that the guidance “sort of just appeared.”

Mask Mandates: There was no conclusive evidence that masks effectively protected Americans from COVID-19. Public health officials flipped-flopped on the efficacy of masks without providing Americans scientific data — causing a massive uptick in public distrust.

Lockdowns: Prolonged lockdowns caused immeasurable harm to not only the American economy, but also to the mental and physical health of Americans, with a particularly negative effect on younger citizens. Rather than prioritizing the protection of the most vulnerable populations, federal and state government policies forced millions of Americans to forgo crucial elements of a healthy and financially sound life.

The World Health Organization: The WHO’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was an abject failure because it caved to pressure from the Chinese Communist Party and placed China’s political interests ahead of its international duties. Further, the WHO’s newest effort to solve the problems exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic — via a “Pandemic Treaty” — may harm the United States.

COVID-19 Misinformation: Public health officials often mislead the American people through conflicting messaging, knee-jerk reactions, and a lack of transparency.  Most egregiously,  the federal government demonized alternative treatments and disfavored narratives, such as the lab leak theory,  in a shameful effort to coerce and control the American people’s health decisions.

When those efforts failed, the Biden Administration resorted to “outright censorship—coercing and colluding with the world’s largest social media companies to censor all COVID-19-related dissent.”

Not a single person has been held responsible for one of the worst humanitarian crises in history. The now former chair of the World Economic Forum, Klaus Schwab, repeatedly stated that the pandemic would provide an opportunity for a Great Reset where one global entity will reign supreme. The WEF partnered with Bill Gates to co-host EVENT 201—a mock trial for the COVID-19 pandemic, one year before it began. The world is a stage, and we are the puppets that they control. The WHO was not directly involved in Event 201; however, Bill Gates is now the WHO’s primary donor, following the US’s departure.

The WHO requires a 12-month waiting period before a country can formally be removed from the alliance under the WHO Constitution. Donald Trump withdrew on January 20, 2025, with WHO membership officially ending on January 23, 2026. The disease cycle has honed in on 2026 as a major event. I am not saying that Disease X, the next pandemic outlined by the WHO, will occur before that timeframe, but the correlations are undeniable.

Apr 23 2025

Hungary Creates “Population First” Economy


Posted originally on Apr 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Family

Hungary’s Viktor Orban is fighting declining birth rates with a “population first” agenda that will make parenthood more affordable. “We are building the world’s first family-centered economy,” Orban proclaimed. One of the first steps will be eliminating taxes for mothers.

Mothers with one child will be exempt from paying income tax until they turn 30, while women with two or more children will be exempt from the tax indefinitely. Around 600,000 mothers will currently benefit from the one-child exemption, with another 250,000 expected to benefit from the two or more exemption criteria.

“This is not just a reform; it’s the dawn of a new era for Hungary’s economy,” the prime minister stated.

Hungary reported its lowest birth rate since 1949 last year, with only 77,500 births or a 9.1% YoY decline, according to the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. Anyafalva Maternity Application conducted a study to ask potential parents why they planned to have no or fewer children. Around 52.9% stated that economic struggles were preventing them from having or expanding their family, and 43.8% noted work-related issues. Childcare and inflation, food inflation in particular, were also cited as causes.

Yet, Hungary’s population has been on the decline since the 1980s. At the current rate, the nation will be short 1 million citizens by 2050. The fertility rate remains around 1.34-1.59 children per woman. Another issue is that 7% of Hungarians, or 700,000 people, live abroad. This is especially prevalent with young professionals and skilled laborers, fueling the decline of the economy. Hungary’s private sector is currently short 60,000 workers, with shortages prevalent in health, education, and IT. Hungary’s per capita income is low amongst EU member nations, with 20% of the population at risk of poverty.

Birthing Person

Orban has plans to attract Hungarians back home. Housing loan interest rates will now be capped at 5%. There are discussions of capping food prices as well, providing loans to expecting parents, housing subsidies, and even monthly cash payouts.

Eliminating taxes on mothers should be a no-brainer, but Orban is teetering on socialism by attempting to provide government subsidies to the population. Price controls DO NOT WORK. The government should not be permitted to invade the private sector.

Let’s take a look at Venezuela. Hugo Chávez implemented price controls to combat inflation, but it backfired and caused the nation to experience one of the highest rates of inflation in the world. The government arbitrarily set prices without taking note of demand, supply, or the cost taken on by the private sector. Business was no longer profitable, and small mom-and-pop stores disappeared. Those that remained could barely operate and experienced severe shortages of basic goods like food. The people panicked and began to hoard what they could, as they did not know when the goods would be available again. The same disaster occurred in the Soviet Union under Gosplan. Whether it is communism or socialism, any method that decimates the free market ends in an economic collapse.

Hungary also has a massive pension problem and an aging population. The government allocated between HUF 7,200 billion and HUF 7,700 billion in 2025, an increase of 655 billion from 2024. This year, Hungary’s overall budget deficit is expected to reach 4% of GDP. Then add the fact that they are an EU member nation, and despite Orban’s protests, they are forced by Brussels to continue aiding Ukraine indefinitely. Then you have Ukraine infringing on Hungary’s agriculture and energy sectors. Simply put, the government does not have the resources to hand out big payouts or expand its social programs.

“This will be a huge expense, but the reviving economy, the measures to support businesses, and full employment combined are capable of paying for this in a way that the budget deficit and public debt both decline,” he said. Government spending must be reformed before anything can be assessed. Inflation will persist, and capping prices ensures absolute failure. I have never agreed with the income tax in general, so the aspect of eliminating that burden for mothers is perhaps the only solid part of the plan.

Apr 23 2025

Business to Consumer Supply Constraints


Posted originally on Apr 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

World Trade 2

Supply chain constraints have begun as a result of companies wishing to avoid US-implemented tariffs. Germany-based DHL has suspended all business-to-consumer (B2C) shipments exceeding $800. The logistics company cited “multi-day transit delays” as its main reason for ceasing services. Business-to-business shipments are expected to experience delays, and packages valued below $800 will remain unaffected.

DHL is one of many carriers that are refusing to accept higher export costs. Hong Kong Post suspended all sea freight shipments to the US. Air freight shipments will halt on April 27, excluding documents. “The US is unreasonable, bullying and imposing tariffs abusively,” the Hong Kong government said in the statement. “The public in Hong Kong should be prepared to pay exorbitant and unreasonable fees due to the US’s unreasonable and bullying acts.” Businesses must now use private couriers to deliver packages, ensuring a rise in costs for consumers.

FedEx Logo

FedEx told CNN it’s “business as usual” and will continue its international courier service. FedEx experienced a significant revenue decline in FY2024, with a decline of $87.69 billion, with the cost of revenue dropping $68.74 billion.  FedEx announced a 5.9% rate hike for US package and freight services in January before tariffs were announced.

UPS will also continue services, but again, expect shipping costs to rise. The company has provided numerous resources to businesses that wish to reroute their shipments or adjust inventory to avoid tariffs. The company stated it will aim to minimize disruptions during this trade war, but anyone who has dealt with customs knows that the government is in no rush to assist businesses expediting shipments.

The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), beginning on May 2, will require all shipments from China to undergo full entry documentation and duty payments regardless of value. Postal shipments will cost a $25 to $50 fee per parcel or 30% tariff if duties are not pre-paid. Customs will review the original country of origin documentation to ensure that transshipped goods through third nations are taxed. Goods coming from Foreign Trade Zones (FTZs) will be able to avoid these fees. This is not an option for many small businesses or drop shipping companies seeking to sell to Americans. Nearshoring is also rising in popularity with sellers aiming to lower shipping costs by going through Mexico.

Expect documentation bottlenecks at customs as everyone adjusts to new regulations. There was a customs gridlock during the February de minimis pause this year, with millions of parcels overwhelming the system. Many expect this to happen once more as there will be a rush of orders before May 2.

Apr 23 2025

112 Year Cycle of Progressivism In Canada As Well


Posted Apr 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Canada future-lives-social-mobility-en

The fragmentation of Canada is bubbling beneath the surface, as we see in the United States as well as in Europe. There is a huge divide between LEFT and RIGHT politics, and never since the late 19th Century to the 1920 period has there ever been such a stark political divide.

Progressive Party

There was such a rise in Progressive Socialism that Teddy Roosevelt abandoned the Republican Party, splitting off to create the Progressive Party, also known as the Bull Moose Party, in 1912 following a split within the Republican Party.

There was an ideological split with President William Howard Taft, and these ideas led to the Income Tax in 1913. Roosevelt, a progressive Republican, grew disillusioned with Taft’s conservative policies, such as his support for the Payne-Aldrich Tariff (which raised rates and angered progressives) and his handling of the Ballinger-Pinchot Affair (a dispute over conservation that portrayed Taft as anti-environmental). Roosevelt believed Taft had abandoned progressive reforms

Roosevelt sought the Republican presidential nomination in 1912 but lost to Taft at a contentious convention. Alleging corruption and delegate theft, Roosevelt and his supporters walked out, forming the Progressive Party to continue his Marxist-style agenda. His Progressive Platform was called the “New Nationalism” platform, advocating for:

    • Strong federal regulation of corporations and monopolies.
    • Women’s suffrage.
    • Workers’ rights (minimum wage, workers’ compensation).
    • Direct election of senators.
    • Primary elections to reduce political corruption, with candidates selected as in Parliamentary systems.
    • Social welfare programs (e.g., pensions, child labor laws).
1912 Progressive Convention R

The party aimed to unify reformers and address growing public demand for economic fairness and government accountability during the Progressive Era. It was launched in August 1912 at the Chicago convention, where Roosevelt was nominated for president. The split in Republican votes between Roosevelt (27%) and Taft (23%) handed victory to Democrat Woodrow Wilson, who signed the income tax into law in 1913. Despite losing, the Progressive Party’s ideas influenced later reforms, such as the New Deal and Progressive Era amendments (e.g., direct Senate elections, income tax).

The party dissolved by 1916, but its platform left a lasting mark on U.S. progressive politics. Roosevelt’s campaign highlighted the power of third-party movements to shift national discourse, even in defeat.

Carville_Maybe_We_Need_to_Have_a_Schism_in_the_Democratic_Party

We have reached the critical 112-year half-cycle of FAR-LEFT Progressiveness. It is going crazy everywhere. Now, the famous Democratic Advisor James Carville has come out and said the Democratic Party should split. They lost as Teddy Roosevelt lost, and they are taking the Democratic Party with them. We see the same in Canada with Carney. Europe has also gone extreme to the left, censoring free speech to maintain its ideas.

Throughout History – it is ALWAYS the Left that Destroys Civilization

Apr 22 2025

Americans Delay Major Purchases Over Tariff Fears


Posted originally on Apr 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Roll Cash

Consumer confidence has tanked due to tariff fears. A Redfin survey conducted from April 10 to 14 found that nearly a quarter (24%) of American respondents have canceled major purchases, such as homes, due to tariffs, with an additional 32% stating they plan to delay any major purchases until they regain confidence in the economy.

Fifty-five percent of respondents said they are less likely to make a major purchase in 2025, with 39% saying they are “much less likely” to do so. On the other hand, one in 10 respondents stated that they plan to make a major purchase immediately, expecting prices to continue rising. Unsurprisingly, Republicans have more confidence in the current economic plan, with 19% saying they are “much less likely” to make a purchase this year compared to 60% of Democrats.

The US real estate market remains in a buyer’s market. Housing prices have been on the rise for the past five years, inventory in high-demand areas remains low, and mortgage rates have not waned in a meaningful way. Existing home sales fell 1.3% in March on a monthly basis, marking a six-month low of 4.15 million units. Pending sales declined 5.2% in major metro areas, with homes spending an average of 53 days on the market. Around 17.5% of sellers cut their existing home sale prices, a high not seen since 2016.

While we are not seeing this trend with real estate, Americans are rushing to purchase autos before prices rise. Auto sales in March were the strongest on record since January 2023 as consumers rush to secure pre-tariff pricing. Auto sales in March were up 17.3% YoY for retail, with fleet sales increasing 5% on an annual basis. No one expects auto prices to decline in the near future, and people who need a vehicle are rushing to finalize purchases before costs begin to rise.

German Cars

Cox Automotive found that new retail sales increased nearly every week since the tariffs were announced, with “a strong surge at month-end with the import tariff announcement creating urgency in the final five days of the month.” J.D. Power announced that automakers have been offering higher discounts and incentives worth an average of $3,059 to attract potential buyers.

Now, Trump has hinted that he may delay certain auto tariffs on foreign vehicles due to the backlash. American consumers are still rushing into the market to purchase cars at “pre-tariff prices,” as everyone expects prices to rise. The real estate boom post-pandemic has ended, and the majority are not looking to purchase a home at this time. Our computer models indicate that we will see a reversal in trend back to a seller’s market by August 2028.  The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

It is never a good sign when consumers lose confidence in the economy. This will become one of the reasons for declining GDP, as consumer spending is absolutely critical to America’s overall economy.

Apr 22 2025

Anti-Deportation – the Democrats’ New Platform


Posted originally on Apr 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

ICEmigrants

Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has attempted to paint herself as a moderate in recent years. This has become an increasingly popular trend among Democrats as their party’s popularity plunges. But do not be fooled as these “moderates” still promote “progressive” policies. Hobbs has vetoed Senate Bill 1164, the Arizona ICE Act, which will make it increasingly difficult for federal agencies to deport illegal migrants.

The Arizona ICE Act would have banned state and local governments from interfering with federal immigration policies. We are seeing this happen throughout the nation, from Maryland to California to New York, as governors and senators have taken it upon themselves to prevent the Trump Administration from deporting people who entered the US illegally. Instead of focusing on the economic drain that migrants have caused legal, law-abiding citizens, these leftist lawmakers are spending resources and time to ensure that migrants, all within their voter base, remain in the US.

“You and I both disagreed with the previous administration’s immigration policies, and we may both disagree with the next administration’s immigration policies,” Hobbs wrote in a letter to Republican Senate President Warren Petersen. This is another instance of the Democrats not having a firm footing on policy. Do you support illegal migration? It should be a yes or no answer.

Hobbs goes on to say that she has worked to stop fentanyl from entering ports of entry, another casualty of open border policies. She noted cartel concerns and maintaining safe communities, but still believes that ICE should not have the ability to deport migrants residing in Arizona. “I will continue to work with the federal government on true border security, but we should not force state and local officials to take marching orders from Washington, D.C.,” she added.

Gavin_Newsom_Bans_California_From_Requiring_ID_to_Vote_Newsweek

Hobbs is not the only one halting deporation efforts. Governor Gavin Newsom of California claims to be “pro-immigration,” confusing true immigration with illegal entry. He signed a law to remove the word “alien” from legal documents, citing xenophobia. Newsom recently allocated $50 million to prevent federal separation efforts, including $25 million for “deportation defense” and $25 million to cover California’s legal battles with the federal government. Then he turned around and begged Washington for funding to help with California’s wildfires, as his state faces the worst deficit in the nation. Again, he is prioritizing illegal migrants over his own constituents and misallocating public funds to fuel his agenda.

Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey plans to rebel against deporation efforts. “The key here is that every tool in the toolbox has got to be used to protect our citizens, to protect our residents and protect our states, and certainly to hold the line on democracy and the rule of law,” she told reporters. Governor Tony Evers of Wisconsin stated that migrants are needed to maintain American agriculture, which is precisely what the Democrats said regarding the slaves during the Civil War. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy declared that Democrats are prepared to “fight to the death” to keep illegal migrants in the US. Imagine if they worked this hard to fight for actual American citizens?

TransnationalGangs

I am all for small government and permitting local governments to handle matters, but migration falls under national security. Biden’s open border policies created such a crisis that the federal government needed to step in to remove the millions of people who are living here illegally, largely living off US taxpayers. We cannot have certain states harboring fugitives, and yes, illegally entering and claiming residence in a foreign country is a crime, while other states work tirelessly to expel them.

The American people voted for a closed border and immigration control. The Democrats have made good on their promise to fight Trump at every turn, even if that entails ignoring democracy. They created the entire migration crisis by telling the world to come to America to seek shelter, and allowing anyone and everyone to enter without regard for American citizens or the American economy. Yet, they are portraying the Trump Administration as evil for attempting to undo the damage they created. The Democrats are eager for Trump to send out the National Guard to expel invaders. Deportation efforts have become the highlight of the “Trump is a dictator” narrative and the Democrats’ primary focus. The battle has only just begun.