Posted originally on Apr 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
President Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on U.S. imports, with steeper reciprocal levies on goods from Europe, Japan, China, and more than 50 other nations. The problem is that he will be blamed for the recession/depression the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. Economists widely criticized tariffs for deepening the global trade collapse during the Great Depression. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs were targeting agriculture because they did not understand currency. I disagree with what Trump is doing with tariffs. Some are justified where the EU is very abusive, for they are still living in the days of Marxism. You keep high tariffs to protect local jobs at the expense of your living standards. Citizens must pay 20% more for goods made domestically because they are subsidized by blocking imports from other provinces, as inside Canada, or nations such as the EU.
I believe Trump will have a PR problem because the economy is turning down because of global debt and warmongering, but the LEFT and economists, who are biased leftists in general, will blame Trump and his tariffs. I stated at the November WEC in 2024 that it did not matter who won economically, the world is in trouble, and we were headed into a recession by 2028.
I was pro-Trump because of the war, and I knew he was anti-war. My computer warns that we are headed into World War III, and I stated that clearly at the 2011 WEC conference in Philadelphia. I understand that many hate my guts because they do not like the forecasts. These are NOT my personal opinions. My job is to present the forecasts that Socrates has put out. I have also said at our WEC events that I have tried my best to defeat my own model. I have consistently failed.
Trump announced that universal 10% tariffs on all imports into the US will go into effect on April 5th, in a key moment for global trade. Certain countries will be hit with steeper tariffs based on US trade deficits, as high as 50% – these begin April 9th. Insofar as the UK is concerned, Trump says the UK will have a 10% tariff on goods, but the EU’s rate will be 20% Theis will benefit the UK for what you will see is redeployment of goods being shipped from the AAEU to the UK and then sent to USA to skirt the tariffs.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, formally known as the Tariff Act of 1930, was signed into law by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. This protectionist legislation significantly raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods, aiming to shield American industries during the Great Depression. However, it exacerbated global economic tensions by prompting retaliatory tariffs from other nations, further reducing international trade. The act is often cited as contributing to the severity of the worldwide economic downturn in the 1930s.
That is because the economists were all LEFTIST Marxists. I had to read in high school The Great Crash by Galbraith and I came to understand everything I was being taught is school was a lie – just LEFTIST propaganda. Galbraith never mentioned that all of Europe defaulted on its debt. Even Canada defaulted. That is what pushed the dollar to historic highs and that is what led to the protectionism. It was all currency.
If Galbraith told the truth, then FDR’s New Deal was wrong – the problem was not greedy capitalists, but greedy politicians. Nevertheless, just as they still lie every day in economics classes around the globe, selling covertly Marxism/Keynesianism, nobody mentions the Sovereign Defaults of 1931 that led to the collapse of 9000 banks.
Canada suspended the gold standard in 1931, following the United Kingdom’s decision to abandon it in September of that year. The move was part of a broader response to the economic pressures of the Great Depression, which led many countries to exit the gold standard to gain more flexibility in monetary policy. Canada’s suspension occurred shortly after Britain’s, aligning with its economic ties to the British Commonwealth. The exact timing is often cited as October 1931, marking a critical step in Canada’s efforts to mitigate financial instability during the crisis. This decision differentiated Canada from the United States, which retained the gold standard until 1933.
The US share market, based on the Dow Jones Industrials, fell 89%. However, the dollar rose 41%. That means in real terms of international value, the Dow Jones declined by only about 47% – not 89%. Nobody understood the capital flows, and nobody understood currency.
