Category Recession / Depression

Aug 12 2022

Sleepwalking into Our Own Demise


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Aug 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I was there on the staff of _____________ when you were on Capitol Hill. It was Dick Army who told you he could not support Bill Archer’s retail sales tax because when the Democrats gained power we would have a retail sales tax and an income tax. I found your piece on Europe sleepwalking into its own demise. I’m sure you remember me, but it was Dick Army who said you knew about cycles and the tax reform would fail. You have been saying longer than I can remember that the euro would fail and that the WEF’s dreams were unrealistic. Now with the raid on Trump, it seems that the conspiracy theories that the DOJ, FBI, CIA, and NSA all conspired to make sure he would lose in 2020 are perhaps once again surfacing. When do the cycles point to this madness erupting?

Been reading you for years.

Thank you so much for your views.

SH

REPLY: Nothing is ever permanent. There is a cycle to everything. These people who think that they can remove Xi in China and Putin in Russia and the people will rejoice and celebrate American troops marching down the streets of Moscow and Bejing in some ticker-tape parade are not just unrealistic, they are the instrument of our destruction. This was the same theory behind removing the dictators in the Middle East. They just talk to each other and convince themselves that their ideas are correct and then act on them. I warned back then that it was a different culture and deeply divided in religion. They wanted to believe they were right and refused to listen to any opposing view. This is the very same thing. Anyone familiar with history knows that there will be no smooth transition and you cannot control the advancement of technology. Only CURIOSITY and FREEDOM provide that key element and Klaus Schwab is a control freak and he thinks he can direct his 4th Industrial Revolution. He will destroy the world economy just as the central planning did in Russia.

We have entered a very dangerous era. There is no better example from history than that of the fate of Julius Caesar. I explore you to read Anatomy of a Debt Crisis. This is the key to the background of even why Caesar crossed the Rubicon and why they assassinated him. He too was draining the swamp. This is also why they are attacking Trump everywhere they can. You have democratic AGs in states trying to put him in prison. This is all about desperately trying to prevent his return. What they do not understand, was the fact that I had been asked to try to talk Trump out of running in 2024 and if I would advise DeSantis. I declined. But the point was that the Republicans did not want Trump to run for they thought he was too controversial. This raid on his house has now caused a rally to his side. Now the people KNOW he is not one of them in Washington. Even many Republicans have been silent about this raid.

It is true that Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon on January 10, 49 BC (49.02) to purge the corruption in the Republic, but corruption resurfaced. Because he forgave his enemies, they conspired and assassinated him on the Ides of March 44 BC (44.20), just 4.82 years later (250.6 weeks, 62 months). That resulted in another civil war. Even Brutus issued coins announcing roundly that he killed caesar on the Eid Mar (Ides of March 15th). This shows his delusion that he really thought the people would cheer him, but he was wrong. He and the other assassins fled Rome for the people did not support the Senate which was too corrupt as we now have in Washington.

Following the defeat of Mark Antony and Cleopatra at the Battle of Actium in 31 BC, because Cleopatra was trying to use sex to conquer Rome, the people even turned against Mark Antony. Octavian became emperor officially with the title Augustus on January 16, 27 BC (27.04) after the defeat of Egypt. The coins issued by Octovian proclaimed Egypt was Captured – not that they defeated Mark Antony since he was a Roman.

The Julian Claudian dynasty ended with the death of Nero on June 9, 68 AD (68.43), lasting 95.47 years in its entirety. Thus, there is never a permanent new era. There are cycles to everything, and forming the EU was also not something that would endure for 1,000 years and more than the Julio-Claudian Dynasty of Rome. This is also true of the United States. We have run the course for a Republic and we will face tremendous upheavals in the years ahead into 2032. There is even a risk that there may not be a 2024 presidential election. That would mean a collapse of the Constitutional government. Yet there are also people suggesting that Pelosi flew to Taiwan because Biden will step down and Harris would step aside meaning that Pelosi would become president until the end of the term in 2024.

There are many fools who really think this New World Order will magically unfold and the dreams of Schwab will be realized at last. There is absolutely NO evidence one may find from history that would EVER suggest that there will be an orderly transition to some new economic system. It has NEVER happened even once in 6,000 years of history. The sanctions imposed on Russia that justified confiscating private assets have not just violated international law, it has divided the world economy and put an end to globalization. By any way we slice this, the foundation of Western ethics and economy has come to an end. We must begin to prepare for a new form of government post-2032. We are indeed sleepwalking into our own destruction of everything that was built post-WWII.

Aug 12 2022

Watch for Falling Anvils, The Washington Post Claims FBI Raid Was Looking for Super-Secret Nuclear Intel in Mar-a-Lago


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 11, 2022 | Sundance

They should have gone with the aliens angle.  I said earlier today after watching the frozen-faced, nervous teleprompter reading from AG Merrick Garland, that Main Justice and the FBI had completely embarrassed themselves and likely came up empty in their raid on Mar-a-Lago.

The reason is simple, when you put a tribe of rabid leftists together in a room long enough, they will collectively concoct the goofiest plans in an effort to advance their quests.  The DOJ and FBI lawfare tribe are no different.  The Washington Post is now claiming the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago was connected to some “nuclear information” in Donald Trump’s possession.

As the theory is presented, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un were speaking in coded language about rockets and missiles.  President Trump called Chairman Kim “little rocket man”, and said the USA had bigger missiles.

Contemplate that type of insufferably innocuous nonsense long enough and in desperation it evolves into a plan to claim a national security threat might exist.  Quick, grab Boris and Natasha and raid the estate…. but watch for dropping Acme anvils.

WASHINGTON – Classified documents relating to nuclear weapons were among the items FBI agents sought in a search of former president Donald Trump’s Florida residence on Monday, according to people familiar with the investigation.

Experts in classified information said the unusual search underscores deep concern among government officials about the types of information they thought could be located at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club and potentially in danger of falling into the wrong hands.

The people who described some of the material that agents were seeking spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation. They did not offer additional details about what type of information the agents were seeking, including whether it involved weapons belonging to the United States or some other nation.

[…] Material about nuclear weapons is especially sensitive and usually restricted to a small number of government officials, experts said. Publicizing details about U.S. weapons could provide an intelligence road map to adversaries seeking to build ways of countering those systems. And other countries might view exposing their nuclear secrets as a threat, experts said. (read more)

Yeah, yeah, that’s the ticket. Comrade Donald and Comrade Melania were building an atomic missile in the Mar-a-Lago basement in order to advance their insurrection efforts.

Good grief.  Can these Deep State stenographers even hear themselves as they type?

I am more convinced than ever they DOJ/FBI were on a fishing expedition, looking for something, anything, that could compromise Donald Trump legally.  They came up empty, and now the entire world is looking at the way the FBI acted.  The DOJ is stuck grasping for any justification -regardless of how silly it is- in order to extricate themselves from the mess they created.

It has to be something super serious in order to justify the extreme nature of the raid itself.   Probable cause likely came down to aliens or nuclear missile technology…  they chose the latter.

‘Quick Melania, before we go to New Jersey, put the nuclear missile plans in your sock drawer.’

[…] “If that is true, it would suggest that material residing unlawfully at Mar-a-Lago may have been classified at the highest classification level,” said David Laufman, the former chief of the Justice Department’s counterintelligence section, which investigates leaks of classified information. “If the FBI and the Department of Justice believed there were top secret materials still at Mar-a-Lago, that would lend itself to greater ‘hair-on-fire’ motivation to recover that material as quickly as possible.”

(WaPo Link)

Aug 10 2022

IRS Staff and Audits Will Multiply


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Aug 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Inflation Reduction Act will waste $430 billion and will do absolutely nothing to curb inflation. Around $300 billion will be spent on climate change initiatives. Clearly, that is not going to curb inflation, and paying farmers incentives for reducing emissions still does not change the fact that the current methods are the only way to produce food on a mass scale, no less during a global shortage.

One piece of legislation passed with this bill will embolden the International Revenue Services (IRS) with 87,000 additional workers. We live in a nation where the government takes a cut of our earnings and assets and then asks us to pay them more. How much more? Depends! If you miscalculate anything, you’ll wind up with fees or jail time.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) explained that the IRS is not adding tens of thousands of agents to target the big bad 1%. “I guarantee you citizens in every one of our states, if you ask them, ‘What do they want?’ they don’t want 87,000 new IRS agents. And they’re not being created to audit billionaires or giant corporations. They’re being created to audit you,” Cruz stated. The government is desperately hunting for any money they can find at our expense.

All Democratic Senators voted in favor of this bill under the guise that it would target the rich. “This will give us the chance to raise the revenue from wealthy tax cheats who are getting out of paying what they owe,” said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore). RS Commissioner Charles P. Rettig lied and said households earning under $400,000 would not be targeted. Yet, the Treasury Department expects the IRS to take away $400 billion in additional taxes over the next decade. In the same breath, the bill will multiply the agency’s budget by nearly six times at the cost of $80 billion.

The House Ways and Means Committee estimates that there will be an additional 1.2 million audits each year, and around 700,000 of those audits will investigate those earning under $75,000. “Democrats want to make the IRS larger than the Pentagon, the State Department, the FBI, and the Border Patrol combined,” Cruz wrote. “That’s a terrible idea. We should abolish the IRS!”

People are financially hurting right now, and the Biden Administration’s plan is to punish small businesses and the middle class. Even far-left Bernie Sanders said that the Inflation Reduction Act would do little to bring down inflation, although he applauded the new corporate tax hike. The government is now acting like the mafia and shaking down citizens for every penny they can find.

Aug 10 2022

Midterm Primary Election Night, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont – Results and Open Discussion


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2022 | Sundance 

Tonight, the midterm elections are held in Wisconsin, Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont.

In ¹Wisconsin a lot of people will be interested in the GOP primary race for governor.

The republican candidates include Trump-endorsed MAGA candidate Tim Michels -vs- Pence-endorsed Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch for the republican challenge to current Wisconsin governor Tony Evers.  Wisconsin has a strong establishment GOP club, and the MAGA team is at a structural disadvantage.

New York Times – Election Results Here

CNN Election Results Here

¹NOTE – As part of the club rules, Wisconsin does not have a statewide system for reporting unofficial results on Election Night, and there is not a central official website where results will be reported.  Results are transmitted from municipal clerks to Wisconsin’s 72 county clerks, who are required by law to post unofficial results to their websites. Click here for a list of all 72 county websites.

Aug 10 2022

Second Quarter Productivity Drops Again, Companies Paying Workers More to Produce Less


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2022 | Sundance 

The previous first quarter productivity drop of 7.4% was the largest quarterly drop in 74 years.  Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the second quarter productivity dropped another 4.6% [Data Here].

For July, companies are paying 5.7% higher wages and getting a 4.6% drop in output, resulting in a total unit labor cost increase of 10.8%.  That increase in final output cost will either result in higher prices or lower profits.

With weak consumer purchasing (low demand) already creating an inventory surplus, hence lower outputs, lower profit leads to cutbacks.  The largest company expenses are generally labor and energy costs. The more variable and controllable of those two expenses is labor.  You know what comes next.

(WSJ) – […] Rising productivity is the key to improving living standards; it allows companies to raise wages without raising prices and fueling inflation. Instead, businesses appear to be paying workers more to produce less. The higher unit labor costs suggest companies will either endure lower profits or pass on higher costs to consumers.

“The trend in productivity growth has worsened compared to prior to the pandemic, and the surge in unit labor costs makes the Fed’s challenge of getting inflation back down to its 2% target all the more challenging,” Wells Fargo economist Sarah House said in a research note.

The central bank has increased rates four times this year from near zero in March in an effort to raise borrowing costs, slow economic growth and bring inflation down.

The consecutive negative productivity readings are a reversal from earlier in the pandemic, when the economy was expanding rapidly and businesses appeared to be adopting new technology to cope with worker shortages and limits to face-to-face contact. (read more)

Meanwhile, “U.S. manufacturing output in June was down by 0.4% compared with March though it was still up by 3.6% compared with the same month a year earlier, estimates prepared by the Federal Reserve Board found. Three-month output growth was the weakest since early 2021, and confirms slackening momentum evident in other data on output, orders and jobs.” (Reuters)

This month’s inflation report (reflecting changes in July) will show a large decline in overall inflation. This will provide the White House with a false narrative of confidence that inflation has peaked.  However, food inflation (farm prices not yet realized) will combine with wage inflation (as noted above) sometime around October, and then we enter another round of rising prices.

The prices for durable goods have likely peaked.  If you are in the market for an expense item (appliance, furniture, etc) look for significant incentives to trigger in Sept/October; right around the same time when the layoffs start.  So, sit tight for a few more weeks.

However, the prices for highly consumable products will present a false plateau (Aug/Sept) until they go bananas again just before the Thanksgiving holiday season.

Prepare and time your affairs accordingly.

Aug 10 2022

Senator Tim Scott on FBI Raid of Trump Home, ‘We Need to Let This Play Out’


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2022 | Sundance 

It’s not very often that you get to watch a DeceptiCon evolve in real time.  Usually, with history as a guide, DeceptiCon extremists hibernate in the evolutionary process for years, only leaving a minuscule trail from which to find them until they detonate like stealth terror cells.   However, Tim Scott has prematurely detonated himself.

Appearing on CBS news to kickstart his 2024 presidential ambitions, and react/respond to the FBI raid on President Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago, Senator Tim Scott advances the DeceptiCon narrative, “we need to let this play out” etc.  WATCH, prompted:

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Tim Scott will eat the bugs while funding support for the pensions and benefits in Ukraine.

We are in a time of great consequence, the greatest in several generations.  This is a political street fight to save the nation.  Those who demand we “wait for referees” while team USA gets beaten senseless are, quite frankly, worse than useless.  They are on the other side.

Aug 8 2022

Civil Unrest in Panama Continues


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central America Re-Posted Aug 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The people of Panama have been protesting the obscene cost of living for weeks. President Laurentino Cortizo has promised to lower the cost of basic necessities such as food and energy, but the people are not satisfied. Teachers began protesting in July and went on an initial three-day strike. This act of defiance inspired other groups who also took to the streets to call for price reductions.

Inflation in Panama sits at 4.2% as of May, while the unemployment rate hovered around 10%. Fuel costs have soared nearly 50% since January of this year. The issue here is that despite the country’s economy growing, the benefits have not been passed on to the people in any way. Many highly-skilled professionals, such as doctors, left the country long ago for countries where they’re paid competitively and access to medical care has become increasingly difficult.

Protestors blocked the Pan-American highway, which is the main route for most of Panama’s food. Even the Catholic Church stepped in during June to mediate the battle between the people and government. The first round of discussions mediated by the Catholic Church resulted in the government freezing the cost of 72 products. Additionally, the government will now allocate 6% of GDP to education by 2024. The Inter-American Highway, connecting Panama to the rest of Central America, was cleared but the supply constraints and resulted in significant losses.

Panama’s economy grew 17.8% in 2021, and 13.6% in Q1 of 2022. There is no reason for Panamanians’ quality of life to decrease when their economy is in a surplus. The protests will continue as the people have realized that their corrupt government does in fact work for them

Aug 8 2022

American Household Debt Surpasses $16 Trillion


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Aug 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

American household has reached a new high, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Total household debt has surpassed $16 trillion for the first time in American history. Americans have taken on $2 trillion in additional debt since the pandemic. Aggregate household debt balances rose by $312 billion in Q2 2022 alone, marking a 2% increase from Q1.

Mortgages were the largest contributing factor to the post-pandemic uptick after rising by $207 billion to $11.39 trillion. Americans have been relying more on credit to make purchases amid inflation, and credit card balances have spiked by $46 billion last quarter. Non-housing balances saw the largest uptick since 2016 after increasing by $103 billion. Auto loans saw a $33 billion rise as the cost of autos remained at a high.

Delinquency on debt “increased modestly” in all categories. Around 95,000 people faced bankruptcy in Q2 2022, which is still near historic lows. Of the $758 billion in new mortgage debt accumulated in the last quarter, 65% is held by people with credit scores over 760. Outstanding student loan debt reached $1.59 trillion last quarter, 5% of which was delinquent.

People may be able to pay off their debt now, but as inflation and interest rates rise, that will become increasingly difficult. While mortgage debt is no cause for concern, the over-reliance on credit purchases will not help Americans lower debt. Inflation must come down for the people to maintain their quality of life.

Aug 8 2022

Fauci’s Fears Falls on Deaf Ears


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Aug 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Dr. Anthony Fauci is relentless. Biden told us the fable of the winter of death and destruction last year. Now Fauci is warning that people are “going to get into trouble” if they’re not vaccinated and boosted by the fall and winter months.

After hearing of the countless side effects and realizing the vaccination does not prevent infection or transmission, most Americans do not want a booster. The Kaiser Family Foundation found that 70% of Americans, 228 million people, are currently not up to date on their vaccinations. Only 48.4% of Americans (children over five included) opted for a booster shot.

Fauci claims people should do it for their “community.” Why? I could have Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, and the rest injected into me, and it still would not prevent me from being prone to transmitting the virus. Fauci himself caught COVID, and even Biden continued to work and failed to isolate after testing positive for the virus. Fauci’s fears are falling on deaf ears as people are becoming aware of the truth – the vaccines do not work.

Aug 8 2022

Sad Stephanopoulos Promotes Dick Cheney as Democrats Hope to Help Joe Biden


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 7, 2022 | sundance

George Stephanopoulos has a new hero not named Obama.  Skipping both the red and blue pills in favor of Xanax and whiskey, a visually verklempt Stephanopoulos uses Dick Cheney as the introduction to the 2022 midterm election victory map.  The last 3 seconds of this clip are funny as heck.

Pay no attention to the 67% of Americans who say things are getting even worse, and instead let’s cheer Dick Cheney and baby killing, after all – they are weirdly connected in a way.  Thus, George has figured the new DNC strategy.  Brilliant.

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