Category U. S. CIA-NSA-FBI

May 19 2022

Biden Administration Invoke Defense Production Act, HHS Will Now Control Means of Production for Baby Formula and Ensure Distribution Equity


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | sundance

Do you know what it’s technically called when “government takes control of the means of production?”  Yeah, that.

This afternoon Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) giving Health and Human Services (HHS) the legal authority to control the supplies needed for the creation of baby formula (how it is made), and the authority to determine distribution equity (who gets it).  Emphasis mine:

White House [DPA Sec. 2] – “[T]he authority of the President conferred by section 101 of the Act to require performance of contracts or orders … is delegated to the Secretary of Health and Human Services with respect to all health resources, including the ingredients necessary to manufacture infant formula.”

“(b)  The Secretary of Health and Human Services may use the authority under section 101 of the Act to determine, in consultation with the Secretary of Agriculture and the heads of other executive departments and agencies as appropriate, the proper nationwide priorities and allocation of all ingredients necessary to manufacture infant formula, including controlling the distribution of such materials (including applicable services) in the civilian market, for responding to the shortage of infant formula within the United States.” (read more)

HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, an über-leftist who ironically self-describes as an abortion absolutist, is now in charge of infant formula manufacture and distribution. You do not need to be a conspiracy theorist to predict which “at risk” group will get priority distribution of limited resources.

May 19 2022

Core Retail Financials Now Showing Results of Inflation Squeeze, Wal Mart and Target Stocks Hit Hard


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | sundance 

May 18, 2022 | sundance | 221 Comments

The stock market is dropping, Wall Street analysts are flummoxed, but it just isn’t rocket science folks.  It’s Main Street economics 101.

The price to produce, manufacture and transport goods has skyrocketed, that’s the Producer Price Index (PPI).  Arriving goods at retail are significantly higher in price.  Simultaneously, consumer spending is being squeezed by unavoidable inflation in housing, energy, food and gasoline; so consumer spending is tight, that’s the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Higher costs to retail that cannot be passed on as higher prices to customers, means lower profit margins for the sellers.  That’s it.  That’s the majority of it.  Major retail companies like Target and Wal Mart are reporting the impacts from the squeeze in higher costs that cannot be passed to consumers in higher retail prices.   Checkbook economics.

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Businesses are seeing higher costs in the unavoidable goods they need to sell, the fixed price of goods.  What comes next?  Businesses, knowing they cannot raise prices too much, look at lowering the costs of operations in an effort to remain competitive, stay profitable, and stay in business.

How do businesses lower operational costs?  Increase expectations of employee productivity and/or lower employment costs.  That leads to layoffs.

I guarantee you…. YOU know more about the basic principles of Main Street economics than a room full of these Wall Street analysts.   I like El-Erian, but sheesh, talk about pretending not to know things.

Look at the companies.   The companies most exposed to wholesale inflation, those who deal in highly consumable goods like food, are the companies that will see their profit margins shrink fastest.

Highly consumable goods rise in price from origination (field) to destination (fork) the fastest.

The next phase covers the same results in durable goods.  That’s when things get really ugly.

May 19 2022

Official Pennsylvania Republican Senate Primary Result Will Likely Take Weeks to Decide


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | sundance 

I think we all knew the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary race was going to be close, but wow, it’s really close.   As of right now, only 1,750 votes separate Mehmet Oz and David McCormick, or a mere .2% of the more than 1.3 million votes cast.

According to the Philadelphia Enquirer there are approximately 105,000 mail-in ballots to be counted and no one knows how many of them are republican ballots.  Politico is estimating around 21,000 of them are republican ballots.

Regardless of the outcome from the mail-in ballots, it seems a recount is a certainty as Pennsylvania state law requires an automatic recount if the difference is less than half of one percent (.50%).

PENNSYLVANIA – […] Pennsylvania law requires an automatic statewide recount if the top two candidates in a race are within half a percentage point of each other, which Oz and McCormick currently are.

The secretary of state will make that determination by “the second Thursday following the day of the election,” which would be May 26.

The recount would be run by the individual counties, and it would have to start no later than June 1 and be completed by noon on June 7. Counties would have to submit results to the state by June 8. (Non-recounted races need to be certified by June 6.)

Recounts rarely change the results of elections, even incredibly close ones. Races with margins even in the low thousands usually hold. But in the closest of elections, small shifts in the corrected count can have an effect on the eventual winner.  (read more)

In the big picture it looks like the GOPe effort to split the MAGA base to benefit David McCormick almost worked.  Kathy Barnette ended up a strong third place.

The only factor that pushed Dr. Oz to the top of the race was the endorsement by President Donald Trump.  Without President Trump’s endorsement there’s no way Dr Oz could have won (perhaps) Pennsylvania.

Hopefully that means Oz will keep America-First at the very top of the policy agenda as he heads into the general election against a big time socialist, John Fetterman, the Democrat candidate.

In the interim, it looks like we will have to wait until after June 8th to know the official winner on the republican side.

May 19 2022

Interesting, DHS Pauses Disinformation Governance Board, Ministry of Truth Head Nina Jankowicz Removed


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022

Interesting background discussions today, very interesting.  There are some aspects to the Washington Post story about DHS abandoning, at least temporarily, the Dept of Homeland Security Disinformation Governance Board.

WaPo represents the CIA public relations/narrative engineers, so it doesn’t come as a surprise they would be the announcing outlet for the leaked information.  There’s also an interesting aspect in who was selected to write the article, Taylor Lorenz, the conscripted narrative engineer and lead on-line counterintelligence/propaganda pusher.  [LINK]

However, beyond the background intelligence motive; and accepting the expressed intent of the DHS ministry of truth effort; notice the picture Lorenz published to accompany the notification (see above). “Nina Jankowicz … works in a press room at Volodymyr Zelensky’s campaign headquarters in 2019 in Kyiv, Ukraine.”  Quite telling.

The takeaway from the above data points, outlines how long the DHS has been planning to use the conflict in Ukraine to advance the agenda of the State Dept and intelligence apparatus (CIA).  When combined with the rapid response from big tech search engine notifications about removing on-line content that contradicted the official position of the U.S. government toward the Ukraine conflict (Google and DuckDuckGo), what we see is a very fulsome picture of how the U.S. government advanced propaganda was being constructed.

Knowing how Biden is a front man for the operations of the U.S. government that are now under the full control of the Fourth Branch, intelligence and globalist apparatus as constructed by the Dept of State and DC officials, it makes sense that Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas would have no idea about the specifics of how Nina Jankowicz was put into place.

I said a few weeks ago that Jankowicz was likely a CIA construct and operator within the intelligence community on behalf of intelligence interests. I will now say we can remove the word “likely” from that sentence.

The Washington Post – […] Now, just three weeks after its announcement, the Disinformation Governance Board is being “paused,” according to multiple employees at DHS, capping a back-and-forth week of decisions that changed during the course of reporting of this story. On Monday, DHS decided to shut down the board, according to multiple people with knowledge of the situation. By Tuesday morning, Jankowicz had drafted a resignation letter in response to the board’s dissolution. (read more)

On the same day the backlash against the DHS Ministry of Truth has collapsed the intended purpose, the United States Senate is scheduled to pass the $40 billion Ukraine package, because….

….Mission Accomplished?

It damned sure isn’t Joe Biden running the U.S. government…

May 19 2022

Report, JP Morgan Predicts National Average Gasoline Prices Over $6 Gallon by August


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | sundance

Zero Hedge published a good article yesterday with some solid internal data showing a strong likelihood that national gasoline prices are likely to rise another 40% from current levels by mid-late summer.  That would put the national average for a gallon of gasoline around $6.20 by August.

The data behind the prediction is solid and essentially boils down to the U.S. refineries not having the expanded capacity needed to keep up with an increased summer demand, particularly as they need to keep generating high volumes of diesel fuel due to current critical shortages.

The issues are created by the Biden administration and the regulatory stranglehold they put on the oil and gas industry last year.  Obviously, all of this is a feature of the administration plan, not a flaw.  The Green New Deal agenda necessarily requires that gasoline rise in price to $7/gal this year in order to force the change in profit dynamic for alternative fueled transportation.

Unfortunately, we the consumers will be the ones punished as the progressive, communist and far-left policy makers chase their climate change agenda.  Cheap and cost-effective energy has to be made ‘not cheap’ and ‘not cost-effective’ in order to create the energy crisis their agenda requires.

Massive increases in gasoline prices are a feature, not a flaw.

Remember, Biden is disposable.  The people behind Biden purposefully selected him in order to generate a kamikaze ‘fundamental change’ mission within a single 4-year presidential term.  Getting crushed on the political outcomes is irrelevant, they just need to push the agenda fast enough, far enough, and destructive enough, so that all energy policies become irreversible.

The people behind the Biden administration energy program are trying to make the infrastructure needed to return to cheap and abundant energy independence, cost prohibitive.

(Via Zero Hedge) – […] According to JPM, a major driver in these counter-seasonal draws in gasoline is higher-than-normal exports. Preliminary EIA data suggest that gasoline exports, mostly to Mexico and the rest of Latin America, are averaging about 0.9 mbd since March, about 100 kbd above seasonal norms and nearly 300 kbd above summer rates.

The punchline: if exports persist at this elevated pace and refinery runs, already near the top of the range for reasonable utilization rates, fall within JPM’s expectations, gasoline inventories could continue to draw to levels well below 2008 lows and retail gasoline prices could climb to $6/gal or even higher, according to JPMorgan.

Some more details from the JPM forecast, starting with assumptions:

♦ The bank expects US refinery runs to peak at 16.8 mbd in August, which, with an average gasoline yield of 49%, means that US refiners will produce about 8.2 mbd of gasoline. Assuming gasoline imports of 0.7 mbd and 10% ethanol blending, the bank expects total finished motor gasoline supply to average 9.9 mbd. If exports continue just below current levels—about 0.8 mbd—that leaves the US with just 9.1 mbd of gasoline supply available for consumption at peak demand this summer.

♦ Because US gasoline demand is expected to average 9.7 mbd in August, the result is an average draw of 0.6 mbd from gasoline inventories in August, about 200 kbd tighter than normal.

♦ Holding those assumptions on refinery yields and flows for gasoline from today through August, total US gasoline inventories could fall below 160 mb by the end of August, the lowest inventory level since the 1950s.

A regression analysis on the relationship between gasoline inventory changes and NYMEX gasoline prices “suggests that a drop of about 60 mb in gasoline stocks between now and August would result in a 37% increase in prices which translates to a $6.20/gal average US retail price”, according to Kaneva. (read more)

May 18 2022

Parental Consent for Vaccines Not Required in California


Armstrong Economics Blog/Vaccine Re-Posted May 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Governments are rapidly decreasing parental rights in all areas from health care to education. A new bill in California will now permit children as young as 12-years-old to take the COVID vaccine without their parents’ permission. Senators Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) and Richard Pan (D-Sacramento) pushed SB 866 through the Senate and expanded it to cover any FDA-approved vaccine. The bill passed by just one vote.

Do we trust 12-year-olds to make important medical decisions alone? Are they aware of their current medications, potential allergies, and the repercussions of the vaccine? If a child were to experience an adverse reaction, their parents would not know how to help. California public schools are clearly pushing for these unnecessary vaccines, and vulnerable children may feel pressured by other authoritarian figures to take the shot without their parents knowing. This teaches children to trust the government over their parents, who they should begin keeping secrets from at a young age.

May 18 2022

California Proposes Gas Stimulus Checks


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted May 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Free handouts will not combat inflation. The politicians (or their advisors) know this fact but continue to issue free money in exchange for votes. Governor Newsom is proposing spending $11.5 billion to provide Californians with a $400 gas stimulus check. Those with more than one registered vehicle could receive two checks. This is part of Newsom’s $18.1 billion package to “combat inflation” and encourage people to vote for him to receive free money.

Other Democrats are proposing $200 gas stimulus checks for each resident, regardless of whether they even own a car or have a license. Newsom’s plan would also provide free public transportation for three months, which will cost taxpayers $750 million. There was bipartisan support to suspend the state’s gas tax, but that would be too logical.

California has the highest gas prices and gas taxes in the nation. Lawmakers have decided to raise the gas tax by 5.6% to reel in $8.8 billion. Removing the tax would be less costly for the state than distributing stimulus checks, but it is less likely to garner voters for Newsom, who is making endless promises leading up to the midterm elections.

May 18 2022

Advice for the Poor from Justin Trudeau


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted May 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I reported that Canada has begun a eugenics program, yet again, to remove the undesirables from society legally. The Medical Aid in Dying (MAID) program was initially intended to provide legal euthanasia for people suffering from terminal illnesses. It was presented as a humane alternative for those who were in extreme pain and slowly awaiting death. The Canadian government expanded the program to cover psychiatric conditions, all psychiatric conditions, and “any other medical affliction.”

Bill C-7, “the euthanasia law,” has made suicide an option for those the government deems are a burden on society. Trudeau’s socialistic dreams under Schwab’s guidance will call for universal healthcare and income, and people who require lifelong assistance present a problem for the government. At first, the measure was intended for the terminally ill, then the mentally ill, and now it encourages death for those “too poor to continue living with dignity.”

Instead of helping the poor, trust fund baby Trudeau, who never experienced financial hardship, suggests the lower class simply kills themselves, and Canadian taxpayers will fund their suicides. This evil legislation is encouraging the most vulnerable among the population to end their lives. Perhaps a mother is desperate and unable to find her baby formula, or a man lost his livelihood and business during lockdown restrictions. Are they too undignified to live? As the economy continues to turn down, there will be more home evictions, job losses, and the overall standard of living will decline as the current level of inflation is unsustainable and the supply chain crisis is nowhere near under control. Government mismanagement caused the current economic downturn, and now they are asking the victims of their incompetence to leave this world behind. Unbelievable.

At this point, Canada is actively encouraging people to choose death as the government wants to eliminate those who Adolf Hitler once deemed “useless eaters” who did not contribute to his ideal version of society. People are outraged by Roe v. Wade in America, but no one is talking about how the Canadian government is PAYING for their citizens to commit suicide. At what level is someone “too poor to continue living with dignity?”

May 18 2022

The Coming LIQUIDITY Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted May 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, You were named hedge fund manager of the year in 1998 for producing the highest return during the Long Term Capital Management collapse over the Russian bond crisis. At the WEC in Orlando, you said in 2019 that we were facing a liquidity crisis that would be similar to that event. Well, the Federal Reserve has now warned of deteriorating liquidity conditions across key financial markets amid rising risks from the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening, and high inflation in their semi-annual report. It appears that the forecast of a liquidity crisis distinguishing this crisis from 2007 to 2009 is unfolding. Would you elaborate on this current crisis headed into 2023?

JF

PS, a short interim virtual WEC may be warranted. Just mentioning. People take what you say, call it their own, and pretend you never existed.

ANSWER: What distinguished that ’98 Liquidity Crisis was that the “Club” of bankers and hedge fund guys were all on the same trade as they always did. The capital flows began to sift in 1994 as SE Asia peaked. The bear market that unfolded went largely unnoticed until the Asian Currency Crisis where the “club” then attacked the currency pegs. But the capital had begun to move back in anticipation of the coming Euro.

The 99.9% of fund managers lost their shirts on that capital shift because they were too busy bribing politicians and people in the IMF to look at the markets. They completely misjudged the world economy thinking like Marx and Keynes that they could control it. The shift in capital and attacking the SE Asian currencies led to the idea that all emerging markets were risky. With the Euro coming, the herd of little investors shifts their capital away from the funds heavily trading emerging markets. They were not “traders” but people who were engaged in trying to rig the game.

What they failed to understand was that the world economy is a financial sea of capital. When there is a high tide and capital is flowing in, they expect it will never end. The tide changes and you then move to low tide and the capital retreats outward. This was the first part of the liquidity crisis that would look at Russia as they did SE Asia emerging markets.

Consequently, when it is low tide, capital is retreating on a global level and that is when the liquidity crisis emerges. Thus, were the serious investors and pension funds behind to lose money in SE Asia, and they began unloading emerging markets elsewhere as well. Because all the hedge funds and bankers who try to rig the markets because they are not traders because they were all on the same trade of Russian debt when they tried to sell, there was NO BID. They began selling every position elsewhere which included the Japanese yen. It was a LIQUIDITY CRISIS so they needed to raise money to cover their losses and if Russian bonds were unsalable, all they could do was sell everything else. Thus, a LIQUIDITY crisis defies fundamentals because they are selling this ONLY because they need the money elsewhere. So the fundamental analysis provides no security for everything is connected in the global see of capital.

Edmon Safra of Republic National Bank put on a fancy dinner for the IMF. I was invited and it was all about trying to convince me that they had the IMF in their pocket and that would rescue the day. The pitch was Russia had all these nukes so no way would the IMF allow Russia to just collapse. This created a serious yet difficult situation for the Russian government. What was going on was that Russia had been running a huge budget deficit to pay for public services. They had borrowed $40 billion by issuing three-month ruble Treasury bills. This is what the “club” was bought for they were paying 30% interest to attract buyers. Bribing the IMF to prevent a default, they were all on this trade expecting free money. I refused to join and warned them that my computer projected this was going to collapse. They did not want to hear that. They were CONVINCED paying bribes would create that GUARANTEED TRADE.

The liquidity crisis this time is COMPLICATED. This time we do not have the traditional speculative boom which has produced inflation. This time we have shortages and there is NO WAY a central bank can prevent this type of inflation by raising interest rates. If anything, it will only propel the shortages so we have the ironic situation that economic decline is unfolding into 2023, but the shortages will get worse causing even higher inflation ahead.

Hence, capital is retreating out of confusion creating a period of low tide. But the standard impact is DEFLATION but that means demand is declining relative to supply. Now we have a decline in supply because of the regulations and war. Consequently, prices will rise even in a recession because it is a shortage of supply, not a decline in demand. It is this lack of understanding that is creating the liquity crisis.

As far as people taking my explanations, it is impossible to reach such conclusions unless you lived there and participated in those events.

May 18 2022

Primary Elections in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania – Results and Open Discussion


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 18, 2022 | Sundance 

Today is the primary voting day in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, & Pennsylvania.  Results will begin coming out tonight.  Consider this an open discussion and results thread (will remain atop site throughout).

Polls close in Kentucky at 6:00pm (EDT) / 7:00pm for counties using Central time, North Carolina at 7:30pm (EDT), Pennsylvania at 8:00 pm (EDT), Idaho at 8:00 p.m. (MDT) / 9:00pm for counties using Pacific time, and finally Oregon at 8 pm (PDT) Oregon primary is mostly by mail.

New York Times – Election RESULTS HERE

CNN – Election RESULTS HERE

Decision Desk HQ – Election Results HERE

Politico – Election Results HERE

The most watched race tonight will likely be the republican Pennsylvania Senate primary race between Kathy Barnette, David McCormick and Mehmet Oz.  Pennsylvania polls close at 8:00pm EST.