Posted originally on the CTH on September 27, 2024 | Sundance
Flooding and high water continue being a serious problem as former Hurricane Helene dumps massive amounts of rain.
Fast moving Helene made landfall about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, Florida, at 11:10 pm last evening. Helene came ashore as a Cat-4 storm with over 120 mph sustained winds. Seven fatalities have been reported. Following the storm surge, impacts are now being felt across the Southeast and into portions of the mid-Atlantic as the storm pushes farther inland and weakens.
The greatest ongoing threat from Helene’s activity continues to be flash flooding as torrential rain falls throughout the southeast, impacting rivers and pushing streams onto roads and into communities, sometimes trapping residents.
According to Fox News Weather, “The flash flood threat stretches from the Southeast into the mid-Atlantic, where multiple Flash Flood Emergencies were issued early Friday morning, including the first-ever Flash Flood Emergency issued for Atlanta.
At least seven other Flash Flood Emergencies were also issued in western North Carolina from Asheville to the Charlotte area.
According to a post on X from Haywood County Emergency Services, residents in portions of Waynesville, North Carolina, are being told to evacuate because of the potentially deadly situation that’s unfolding. (more)
Treepers in the affected areas, please use this thread to update your personal condition. Also, all long time Treepers understand you can reach out via email if you need assistance, and we will do our earnest best to assist and/or connect you with resources.
1,500 search and rescue responders are active right now just in Florida. If you are in an impact zone, do not go looking around, be careful. There is a great video below, a press conference from moments ago, that contains excellent information for those in the impact zone. Please watch it.
Due to the speed of the storm, there are convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process.
Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west. A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up. Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.
But first, there will be an assessment. The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Most cell phone services will likely be knocked out.
Recovery teams will begin a street-by-street review; everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid. Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.
Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood. It will all be cattywampus.
Trees gone, signs gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.
I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.
Stay away from powerlines.
Try to stay within your immediate neighborhood for the first 36-48 hours. Keep the roadways and main arteries clear for recovery workers, power companies and fuel trucks.
Be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months. Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system. When that raging Helene takes away the subconscious landmarks, I guarantee you – you are gonna get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.
It’s kinda funny and weird at the same time.
Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.
Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs. Like I said, everything is cattywampus. Your brain-memory will need to reboot and rewire. In the interim, you’re going to get lost… don’t get frustrated.
No street signs. Likely no stop signs. No traffic lights.
Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION. Even the major intersections.
You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit. You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who are not paying close attention. Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.
Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It doesn’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before. It isn’t normalville now. Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too. In the aftermath, there’s no class structure. Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess. Everyone is equally a mess.
The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.
You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together. If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity, you will worship it in the aftermath of a hurricane. Git-r-done lives there.
Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood. Figure out who’s got chainsaws, who knows how to correctly use them, and set about safely clearing the road. If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.
Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc. It’s a process. Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed over by a focused front-end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path. Just deal with it. Those same front-end loaders will also be removing feet of sand from coastal roads. Don’t go sightseeing… stay in your neighborhood.
For the first 36-48 hours, please try to stay close to home, in your neighborhood. Another reason to stay close to home is the sketchy people who can sometimes surface, looters etc. Staying close to home and having contact with your neighbors is just reasonable and safer.
Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet. It’ll be ok. There are going to be roofing nails everywhere, and you will likely get multiple flat tires in the weeks after the hurricane.
After this storm half of the people living near the Big Bend are going to fit into two categories, two types of people: (1) those with a new roof; or (2) those with a blue roof (tarp).
Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk. You will be surrounded by jerks…. elevate yourself. If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk. Keep your wits about you and stay calm.
Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you are on the road and there’s a convoy of utility trucks on the road, pull over. Treat power trucks and tanker trucks like ambulances and emergency vehicles. Pull over, give them a clear road and let them pass.
When everyone gets to work, if you see a lineman, pole-digger or crew say thanks. Just simple “thanks”. Wave at them and give them a thumb-up. No need to get unnecessarily familiar, a simple: “thank you for your help” will suffice. You know, ordinary people skills.
Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts. Some will be staging at evacuation shelters, likely schools and such. The need to shelter people and recovery crews might also delay the re-opening of schools.
Once you eventually start getting power back, if you see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”.
Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network. Those will get power before other locales without power. Fuel outlets are a priority. Fuel is the lifeblood of recovery. Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.
Remember, this is important – YOU are the first responder for your neighborhood. Don’t quit. Recovery is a process. Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months.
Take care of your family first; then friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.
Pray together and be strong together. It might sound goofy to some, but don’t be bashful about being openly thankful in prayer.
It will be ok.
It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.
Governor Ron DeSantis has some great information and advice in this press conference this morning.
Posted originally on Sep 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
| Thank you for all the emails about the storm and whether I will be alright. Don’t worry. Biden will never let me die. I pay enough taxes to keep Zelensky’s pockets full. Without my taxes, Zelensky might not be able to repair his place in Miami, or Russia might actually win. I don’t know why the IRS is playing the middleman. We should just be sending our checks to Kiev directly. And, I never dated a girl named Helene, so I don’t fear any retribution.
I took this at 7:30 AM. There was still a little blue-sky.
This one is from 12:45. I will post another before the sun goes down.
The last time, I evacuated and went to Orlando so I could be in the middle of it. Then the FAKE News, all of them, only show the worse possible places. I finally asked a boy who came to work in the hotel if the interstate was clear. He said he had no problem driving to work. I left expecting some flooding, and there was nothing. I got home, and the power never went out. The one before that, CNN said we would have a 10ft wall of water. It turned out to be 6 inches. FAKE news has engulfed everything.
Posted originally on the CTH on September 26, 2024 | Sundance
Hurricane Helene is following the forecast track. SW Florida is feeling the impact of the first storm surge. Tropical storm force winds are being felt throughout Florida. All interests in the Big Bend area should heed local officials’ warnings and instructions. Focus on the local emergency management advice.
For those who are in the path of the storm, there comes a time when all options are removed, and you enter the “Hunkering Down” phase. You’re just about there now. Hurricane force winds extend 60 miles from center.
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 85.0 West. Helene is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene’s fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). (link)
As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes. I ain’t no expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.
However, when it comes to the “duration part” and the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member, and survivor of multiple direct hits, perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value. Consider this little word salad a buffet, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.
A category-4 storm can and will erase structures, buildings and landscape. Hurricane Helene is similar to Hurricane Charley which impacted the SW coast of Florida in 2004, only larger. The coastal topography will likely change in the 60-mile-wide area of immediate impact.
Total infrastructure failure should be anticipated, and it will take weeks for restoration. The coastal communities are the most vulnerable; however, the inland impact of the storm will continue unimpeded until the eyewall crosses onto land.
That means communities inland for 50 miles will likely see consistent 100+ MPH winds for several hours. That scale of sustained wind energy will snap power poles and reinforced concrete.
As the backside of the storm then reverses the energy direction, any already compromised structures will not withstand the additional pressure. In many cases -particularly those who go through the eyewall- the backside of the storm is worse than the front. If you are inland, prepare yourself for a long duration of extensive wind damage followed by an extended power outage.
For those who are in the path of the storm, there comes a time when all options are removed, and you enter the “Hunkering Down” phase. You’re just about there now. Fortunately, just like Charley, this particular hurricane Helene will move fast and that might mitigate some of the coastal storm surge (only one part of one tidal cycle). However, in totality from impact through recovery this is going to be a long-duration event.
When the sustained winds reach around 45mph today the power will begin to shut down. However, do not be alarmed, this actually makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild. Do not expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.
Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary. There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region. The sounds are scary. Try to stay calm despite the nervousness. Telephone and power poles, yes, even the concrete ones, can, and likely will, snap like toothpicks. Trees will bend and break; the sounds are dramatic.
There’s a specific sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget. It isn’t a howl, it’s a roar. It is very unique sound in depth and weight. Yes, within a hurricane wind has weight, it’s the pressure of it.
Stay clear of windows and doors, and within an interior room of the house or apartment if possible. That scary roar sounds like it won’t ever quit…. it will… eventually; but at the time you are hunkering down, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.
A hurricane wind is a constant and pure rage of wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms. Hurricane wind is heavy, it starts, builds and stays; sometimes for hours. Relentless, it just won’t let up. And then, depending on Helene’s irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, it will stop. Judging by the forward speed the hurricane force wind will likely last around 2 hours before it stops.
Then silence. No birds. No frogs. No crickets. No sound.
Nature goes mute. It’s weird.
We have no idea how much ambient noise is around us, until it stops.
Due to the speed of the storm, there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process even before the sun rises tomorrow. Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west. A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up. Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.
But first, there will be an assessment. The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Most cell phone services will likely be knocked out. Recovery teams will begin a street-by-street review; everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid. Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.
Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood. It will all be cattywampus.
Trees gone, signs gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.
I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.
Stay away from powerlines.
Try to stay within your immediate neighborhood for the first 36-48 hours. Keep the roadways and main arteries clear for recovery workers, power companies and fuel trucks.
Be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months. Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system. When that raging Helene takes away the subconscious landmarks, I guarantee you – you are gonna get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.
It’s kinda funny and weird at the same time.
Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.
Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs. Like I said, everything is cattywampus. Your brain-memory will need to reboot and rewire. In the interim, you’re gonna get lost… don’t get frustrated.
No street signs. Likely no stop signs. No traffic lights.
Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION. Even the major intersections.
You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit. You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention. Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.
Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It don’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before. It ain’t normalville now. Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too. In the aftermath, there’s no class structure. Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess. Everyone is equally a mess.
The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.
You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together. If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity you will worship it in the aftermath of a hurricane. Git-r-done lives there.
Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood. Figure out who’s got chainsaws, who knows how to correctly use them, and set about safely clearing the road. If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.
Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc. It’s a process. Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed-over by a focused front end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path. Just deal with it. Those same front-end loaders will also be removing feet of sand from coastal roads. Don’t go sightseeing… stay in your neighborhood.
For the first 36-48 hours, please try to stay close to home, in your neighborhood. Another reason to stay close to home is the sketchy people who can sometimes surface, looters etc. Staying close to home and having contact with your neighbors is just reasonable and safer.
Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet. It’ll be ok. There are going to be roofing nails everywhere, and you will likely get multiple flat tires in the weeks after the hurricane.
After this storm half of the people living near the Big Bend are going to fit into two categories, two types of people: (1) those with a new roof; or (2) those with a blue roof (tarp).
Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk. You will be surrounded by jerks…. elevate yourself. If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk. Keep your wits about you and stay calm.
Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you are on the road and there’s a convoy of utility trucks on the road, pull over. Treat power trucks and tanker trucks like ambulances and emergency vehicles. Pull over, give them a clear road and let them pass.
When everyone gets to work, if you see a line-man, pole-digger or crew say thanks. Just simple “thanks”. Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get unnecessarily familiar, a simple: “thank you for your help” will suffice. You know, ordinary people skills.
Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts. Some will be staging at evacuation shelters, likely schools and such. The need to shelter people and recovery crews might also delay the re-opening of schools.
Once you eventually start getting power back, if you see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”.
Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network. Those will get power before other locales without power. Fuel outlets are a priority. Fuel is the lifeblood of recovery. Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.
Remember, this is important – YOU are the first responder for your neighborhood. Don’t quit. Recovery is a process. Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months.
Take care of your family first; then friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.
Pray together and be strong together. It might sound goofy to some, but don’t be bashful about being openly thankful in prayer.
It will be ok.
It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.
√ Andrew √ Jeanne √ Frances √ Ivan √ Charley √ Irma √ Ian
Posted originally on the CTH on September 25, 2024 | Sundance
The National Hurricane Center is narrowing the forecast path of Hurricane Helene, while strongly emphasizing the importance of preparation for a dangerous storm impact in the Florida panhandle region. Everyone in the area should pay close attention.
Helene is anticipated to intensify tomorrow and start moving forward very quickly. This can push the wind driven water very severely into the upper Florida coastal area. The storm surge is anticipated to be very dangerous. Evacuations are beginning and all preparation should be rushed to completion. [NHC Center Here]
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene’s fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. (read more)
Fortunately, the eyewall -the area of strongest winds- is likely to be tight and small; however, the outflow wind field is likely to be very large which makes the water pushing into the coastal region more concerning.
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Those in the impact zone should leave if possible. No-one should remain on/near the coast. A category-4 storm can and will damage structures, buildings and landscape.
This storm is very similar to Hurricane Charley which impacted the SW coast of Florida in 2005. The coastal topography can change in the 30 mile-wide area of immediate impact.
Infrastructure failure should be anticipated, and it could take weeks for restoration. The coastal communities are the most vulnerable; however, the inland impact of the storm will continue unimpeded until the eyewall crosses onto land.
That means communities inland for 50 miles will likely see consistent 100+ MPH winds for several hours. That scale of sustained wind energy will snap power poles and weaken reinforced concrete.
As the backside of the storm then reverses the energy direction, any already compromised structures will not withstand the additional pressure. In many cases the backside of the storm is worse than the front.
If you are at/near the coast, in the zone of eyewall uncertainty, the time to get out is tomorrow. Don’t wait. Take all mandatory evacuations seriously. If you are inland, prepare yourself for a long duration of extensive wind damage followed by an extended power outage.
Do not panic or stress with dark imaginings. However, all hurricane preparation should be rushed to completion.
Due to the speed of this storm, and the rapid intensification strength, all interests in the coastal area should immediate rush to completion their hurricane and storm preparation plans. Thursday is likely the last day to prepare your property and personal effects. Do not delay. Pay attention to the warnings and guidance of local officials.
If you live in an evacuation zone, be prepared to respond as soon as instructed. Take this storm seriously. Slight variations in the storm’s path can create major changes within any impacted region.
Posted originally on the CTH on September 24, 2024 | Sundance
The National Hurricane Center has provided a 5:00pm ET update. [SEE HERE]
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.7 West. Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on Thursday. (link)
There are many variables still present within the models for the track of TS Helene as it develops and strengthens into a hurricane. Essentially, the largest variable is the intensity of the storm as it approaches the coastline. There are significant variables; however, everyone should prepare for the worst scenario and then adjust with additional information as it is provided.
It is very important to pay attention to your local officials and emergency management teams. Each area is very different, and each community can feel a totally different impact depending on topographical, geographical and regional distinctions. Listen to state officials, pay attention to the National Hurricane experts, but the best suggestion is to focus your attention on the advice of local EMS officials.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis provided a press briefing earlier today (below).
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I am repeating the original advice from yesterday along with a note about the BUZZSAW part that always gets the most attention.
During a hurricane, even if you experience significant impacts, the odds of being in the eyewall part of the hurricane itself is very low. The eyewall gets all of the attention: windspeed, intensity, Cat status, etc. However, the eyewall is not the total of a hurricane, the eyewall is a very limited area and the most dangerous.
During Ian the old axiom remained mostly true, “hunker down from wind, but run from water.”
Now, I say “mostly true“, because to be brutally honest -due to the unique nature of Ian- if you are going to be inside that buzzsaw area (the eyewall) for 8 hours, hunkering down is really not a safe option. Fortunately, Ian was a rare system in terms of its slow-moving nature, even after hitting land. Most hurricane impact events are less than 3 hours in duration. Ian was dangerously unique.
To give scale to the size of the buzzsaw, again we are talking about the most dangerous part of any hurricane – the eyewall itself, this next image shows a comparison between the eyewall of Hurricane Charley in 2004 and the eyewall of Hurricane Ian in 2022.
That is the eye of Charley overlaid inside the eye of Ian in almost the same location. You can see how much bigger the buzzsaw was for Ian as opposed to Charley.
Both Hurricane Charley (’04) and Hurricane Ian (’22) came ashore in generally the same place. Charley made official landfall at Upper Captiva Island and Ian at Bokeelia. The distance between both landfall locations is only about 4 miles apart as the crow flies.
Both storms were Cat-4 landfall events. However, Charley was much smaller, had a smaller buzzsaw and moved quickly around 20 mph. Ian was big, had a much bigger buzzsaw and moved slowly around 5pmh.
The duration of Charley was around 2 to 3 hrs. The duration of Ian was around 8 to 9 hrs. Ian was bigger and just moved slower. Inside this distinction you discover why, despite their almost identical regional proximity, the damage from Ian was much more severe. Topography was changed.
If there is a possibility you will be hit by the eyewall section; you should evacuate – period!
DAY ONE (Monday) Determine Your Risk Make a Written Plan Develop and Evacuation Plan Inventory hurricane/storm supplies.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) Get Storm Update Assemble and Purchase Hurricane Supplies Contact Insurance Company – Updates Secure Important Papers. Strengthen and Secure Your Home Make Evacuation Decision for your Family.
DAY THREE (Wednesday) Get Storm Update Re-Evaluate your Supplies based on storm update Finish last minute preparation Assist Your Neighbors If Needed – Evacuate Your Family
Communication is important. Update your contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed. Today/tomorrow are good days to organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers and place them in one ‘ready-to-go’ location.
Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status.
Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storm’s path. All decisions are yours. You are in control.
Consider travel plans based on roads and traffic density. Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low. You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.
One possible proactive measure is to make a list of hotels further inland that you would consider evacuating to. Make that list today and follow updates of the storms’ progress.
Depending on information tomorrow you might call in advance and make a reservation; you can always cancel if not needed. It is better to have a secondary evacuation place established in advance. Being proactive reduces stress. Even if you wait until much later to cancel, it is better to pay a cancellation fee (usually one night charge) than to not have a plan on where to go. Trust me, it’s worth it. Protect your family. Make the list of possibilities today, make the booking decision in the next 24 hrs.
Look over the National Hurricane Center resources for planning assistance. [SEE HERE]
Stuff People Do not Talk About….
The ‘context’ of Ian in 2022 was shared previously {Go Deep}. What follows below are things to consider if you are prepping for a hurricane impact and/or deciding whether to stay in your home or evacuate. Standard hurricane preparations should always be followed. Protect your family, secure your property and belongings, and prepare for the aftermath.
What you do before the hurricane hits is going to determine where you are in the recovery phase.
Additionally, and this should be emphasized and discussed within your family, if you cannot be self-sufficient in the aftermath – for any reason, then you should evacuate.
Self-sufficiency in this context requires being able to cope for up to several weeks:
(1) potentially without power; (2) potentially without potable running water (3) potentially without internet service; (4) potentially without communication outside the region; and (5) with limited municipal and private sector assistance. If you decide you cannot deal with these outcomes, you should evacuate.
Additionally, as a family or individual, you should also honestly evaluate:
(1) your physical abilities; (2) your emotional and psychological ability to withstand extreme pressures; and (3) your comfort in losing daily routines, familiar schedules and often overlooked things you might take for granted.
Post hurricane recovery is fraught with stress, frustration and unforeseeable challenges.
I saw a video presented by a structural engineer who was sharing his experience with Hurricane Ian. I am going to use his video for a few references because even with professional credentials, some of the common mistakes people make are highlighted in his experience. Keep in mind his video is taken about 30 miles inland from where the majority impact area (coastal region) is located.
The video below was shot from the soft side (western side) of the storm, and if we were to scale the difference between his experience and a person who was located in/around Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Pine Island or Cape Coral, he would be around a “5” on a ten-point impact scale.
Meaning the severity of conditions 30 miles southeast of him was twice as severe as his inland experience.
Key Points – At the 21: 35 moment (prompted), notice how his #2 vehicle is parked outside. Also, at the 22:00 minute moment, notice what he is describing and showing with his garage door and how his #1 vehicle (a pickup truck) is positioned inside the garage. WATCH:
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♦ This is exactly what I was talking about in hurricane preparation when discussing the garage door. If that videographer was located 30 miles southeast, and/or his house was positioned facing West, instead of North, his garage door would have failed. If you lose the garage door, YOU COULD LOSE YOUR ROOF.
You can always tell those people who have been through direct hurricane impacts by how they parked their cars. I have never included this in the hurricane advice before so it’s worth a mention. If you lose your Florida garage door you will more than likely lose your roof. That’s just the reality of having a massive opening in your structure to 150 mph winds that will lift the trusses.
If you have two vehicles, put one vehicle inside the garage with the front bumper against the door to help stop the flex (do this carefully). Put the other vehicle outside blocking the garage door facing down the driveway or facing parallel to the garage. The goal is to use the aero dynamics of the car to push the wind away from the door and provide protection.
Purchase a cheap car cover to protect the outside vehicle and/or use old blankets (cable ties, bungee cords) to stop the outside vehicle from getting sandblasted and destroyed. Place double folded corrugated cardboard in front of the radiator to protect it from storm debris.
Additionally, if you live in a flood zone, or if you are concerned about storm surge, the day before impact take your #1 car to the nearest airport or hotel with a parking garage and park in the upper levels. Take an uber back home if you don’t have a friend or partner to help you. This way you know you will have one workable vehicle, just in case.
♦ Another lesson from Ian, if you drive an electric vehicle and sustain saltwater intrusion (of any level) your car is not safe. Saltwater makes the vehicle batteries extremely dangerous, and they could spark or catch fire. Multiple homes survived Hurricane Ian only to have the electric car catch fire in the garage and burn the house to the ground. Hurricane rain is saltwater rain. The fire department was begging people to put their ev’s outside and not to plug them in. Dozens of ev’s also erupted in flames while driving down the streets after the storm.
Back to the video above…
♦ Notice at 24:30 of the video this professional structural engineer is standing and physically supporting his glass patio doors, with his wife, trying to keep them from breaking in due to wind and pressure changes. DO NOT DO THIS ! That is beyond dangerous. Any small item of debris (even a small twig or branch) could hit that window and shatter it, turning flying glass into instant flying blades.
Put 3/4-inch plywood or steel bolted hurricane shutters over all your windows and doors. Period. This is not an option. My steel bolted hurricane shutters were hit with debris so hard – whatever it was physically dented the steel. Every window and door need to be covered and protected, especially glass patio doors (even if tempered). Do not think you can stand there and protect glass doors. It’s beyond dangerous.
♦ Hardening your home is a matter of careful thought and physical work. However, every opening into your structure must be protected, leaving yourself with one small exit opportunity just in case. Hopefully you have a bolted door with no glass windows you can use as an emergency exit. If not, select a small window and leave only enough room uncovered for you to get out in case of emergency or structural collapse.
Beyond the ordinary supplies like drinking water, batteries, flashlights, battery or hand-crank radio, generators, gasoline, etc. Evaluate the scale of what you have against the likelihood of weeks without power or water. A few pro tips below:
♦ Put three 30-gallon trash cans in the shower and fill them with water before the storm. This will give you 90 gallons of water for cooking and personal hygiene. You will also need water to manually flush your toilets. Bottled water is great for drinking, hydrating and toothbrushing, but you will need much more potable water if the municipal supply is compromised or broken.
♦ A standard 6,500-to-8,500-watt generator will run for approximately 8 hours on five gallons of gasoline. Do not run it all the time. Turn it on, chill the fridge, make coffee, use the microwave or charge stuff, then turn it off. Do this in 4-hour shifts and the fridge will be ok and your gasoline will last longer. Gasoline is a scarce and rare commodity in the aftermath of a hurricane. Gas stations don’t work without power. Check the oil in the generator every few days. Also, have a can of quick start or butane available in case the generator starts acting up.
♦ Extension cords. If you are purchasing them buy at least one 100 to 150′ extension cord with a triple ponytail. This way you can use one cord into a central location to charge up your electronic devices. Establish a central recharging station for phones, pads, laptops, and rechargeable stuff.
♦ Purchase a box of “contractor garbage bags” and just keep them in the garage. These are large, thick, industrial trash bags that fit 40-gallon drums. They can be used for trash, or even cut open for tarps in the aftermath of a storm. These thick mil contractor bags have multiple uses following a hurricane.
♦ Do all of your laundry before the hurricane hits. You will likely not have the ability again for a few weeks.
♦ Cook a week’s worth of meals in advance of the hurricane. Store in fridge so you can microwave for a meal. Eating a constant diet of sandwiches gets old after the first week. Dinty Moore canned beef stew and or Chef-boy-ardee raviolis can make a nice break…. anything, except another sandwich.
♦ Have bleach for use in disinfecting stuff before and after a hurricane. Also have antibiotics and antiseptics for use. Hygiene and not getting simple infections after a hurricane is critical and often forgotten. Again, this is where the extra potable water becomes important. Simple cuts and scrapes become big deals when clean potable water is not regularly available. Keep your scrapes and abrasions clean and use antiseptic creams immediately.
♦ Do not forget sunscreen and things to relieve muscle aches and pains. Hurricane recovery involves physical effort. You will be sore and/or exposed to the elements. Remember, it’s all about self-sufficiency because the normal services are not available. A well-equipped first aid kit is a must have.
♦ Buy a small camping stove. Nothing big or expensive, just something you can cook on outside in case of emergency. It will be a luxury when you are 2+ weeks without power and all the stores and restaurants are closed for miles.
♦ Those small flashlights that you can strap around your head that take a few AAA batteries? Yup, GOLD. Those types of handsfree flashlights are lifesavers inside and outside when you need to see your way around. Nighttime is especially dark without electricity in the entire town. Doing stuff like filling a generator with gasoline in the middle of the night is much easier with one of those head strap flashlights. Strongly advise getting a few, they’re inexpensive too.
♦ Cash. You will need it. Without power anything you may need to purchase will require cash, especially gasoline. Additionally, anyone you hire to help or support your immediate efforts will need to be paid. Cash is critical. How much, depends on your individual situation, but your cash burn rate will likely go into the thousands in the first few days. Also keep in mind, you may or may not be able to work and without internet access even getting funds into place could be challenging.
♦ Hardware. A box of self-tapping sheet metal screws (short and long) is important, along with a box or two of various wood screws or Tyvex screws. A battery drill or screw gun is another necessity. Check all of this stuff during hurricane prep.
This is a fury of nature, a battle where the odds are against you, that you may or may not be aware you are contemplating when you are choosing to stay or evacuate. It’s not the hurricane per se’, it’s that much smaller killer buzzsaw – the eyewall- that you are rolling the dice, never to see.
When it comes to the eyewall, the truest measure of the “cone of uncertainty“, the difference between scared out of your mind and almost certain death, is literally a matter of a few miles,…. and there ain’t no changing your mind once it starts.
The attached report on Global Weather for Aug 2024 Data has charts showing the relationship between CO2 growth and Temperature increases going up since we started to accurately measure CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958. These Charts were created by showing CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by about ~34.0% from 1958 to July 2024. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.
Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature also from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the actual change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) is about ~.3% and may reach .5% by 2028. To even be able to see this minuscule change we had to reduce the scale of the Temperature Axis by a factor of ten.
This Chart 8 uses unaltered values from NOAA and NASA properly displayed ,and the Blue and Yellow projections are created by Microsoft Excel not me.
The NOAA and NASA numbers tell us the story of the Very Small Changes in the temperature of the planets Atmosphere As Carbon Dioxide goes up geometrically.
Posted originally on the CTH on September 23, 2024 | Sundance
Those in the area of Sarasota, Clearwater/St Pete to the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area need to pay particular attention to the path of this storm throughout the day today and tomorrow. An area of extreme weather is expected to become hurricane Helene very quickly.
There is a potential for strength to major hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico prior to landfall. Those in the Mississippi and Alabama coastal area should also keep an eye for updates.
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 82.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. (link)
Hurricane Ian hit the Florida SW coast on Sept 29, 2022. September hurricanes are strong, the Gulf of Mexico is very warm.
For those in the cone of uncertainty, remember, planning and proactive measures taken now can significantly reduce stress in the days ahead. Plan when to make the best decision on any evacuation (if needed) consider Tuesday night the decision timeframe. As a general rule: take cover from wind – but evacuate away from water.
DAY ONE (Today) Determine Your Risk Make a Written Plan Develop and Evacuation Plan Inventory hurricane/storm supplies.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) Get Storm Update Assemble and Purchase Hurricane Supplies Contact Insurance Company – Updates Secure Important Papers. Strengthen and Secure Your Home Make Evacuation Decision for your Family.
DAY THREE (Wednesday) Get Storm Update Re-Evaluate your Supplies based on storm update Finish last minute preparation Assist Your Neighbors If Needed – Evacuate Your Family
Communication is important. Update your contact list. Stay in touch with family and friends, let them know your plans. Select a single point of contact for communication from you that all others can then contact for updates if needed. Today/tomorrow are good days to organize your important papers, insurance forms, personal papers and place them in one ‘ready-to-go’ location.
Evaluate your personal hurricane and storm supplies; update and replace anything you might have used. Assess, modify and/or update any possible evacuation plans based on your location, and/or any changes to your family status.
Check your shutters and window coverings; test your generator; re-organize and familiarize yourself with all of your supplies and hardware. Check batteries in portable tools; locate tools you might need; walk your property to consider what you may need to do based on the storm’s path. All decisions are yours. You are in control.
Consider travel plans based on roads and traffic density. Being proactive now helps to keep any future stress level low. You are in control. If you have pets, additional plans may be needed.
One possible proactive measure is to make a list of hotels further inland that you would consider evacuating to. Make that list today and follow updates of the storms’ progress.
Depending on information tomorrow you might call in advance and make a reservation; you can always cancel if not needed. It is better to have a secondary evacuation place established in advance. Being proactive reduces stress. Even if you wait until much later to cancel, it is better to pay a cancellation fee (usually one night charge) than to not have a plan on where to go. Trust me, it’s worth it. Protect your family. Make the list of possibilities today, make the booking decision in the next 24 hrs.
Look over the National Hurricane Center resources for planning assistance. [SEE HERE]
Stuff People Do not Talk About….
The ‘context’ of Ian in 2022 was shared previously {Go Deep}. What follows below are things to consider if you are prepping for a hurricane impact and/or deciding whether to stay in your home or evacuate. Standard hurricane preparations should always be followed. Protect your family, secure your property and belongings, and prepare for the aftermath.
What you do before the hurricane hits is going to determine where you are in the recovery phase.
Additionally, and this should be emphasized and discussed within your family, if you cannot be self-sufficient in the aftermath – for any reason, then you should evacuate.
Self-sufficiency in this context requires being able to cope for up to several weeks:
(1) potentially without power; (2) potentially without potable running water (3) potentially without internet service; (4) potentially without communication outside the region; and (5) with limited municipal and private sector assistance. If you decide you cannot deal with these outcomes, you should evacuate.
Additionally, as a family or individual, you should also honestly evaluate:
(1) your physical abilities; (2) your emotional and psychological ability to withstand extreme pressures; and (3) your comfort in losing daily routines, familiar schedules and often overlooked things you might take for granted.
Post hurricane recovery is fraught with stress, frustration and unforeseeable challenges.
I saw a video presented by a structural engineer who was sharing his experience with Hurricane Ian. I am going to use his video for a few references because even with professional credentials, some of the common mistakes people make are highlighted in his experience. Keep in mind his video is taken about 30 miles inland from where the majority impact area (coastal region) is located.
The video below was shot from the soft side (western side) of the storm, and if we were to scale the difference between his experience and a person who was located in/around Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Pine Island or Cape Coral, he would be around a “5” on a ten-point impact scale.
Meaning the severity of conditions 30 miles southeast of him was twice as severe as his inland experience.
Key Points – At the 21: 35 moment (prompted), notice how his #2 vehicle is parked outside. Also, at the 22:00 minute moment, notice what he is describing and showing with his garage door and how his #1 vehicle (a pickup truck) is positioned inside the garage. WATCH:
.
♦ This is exactly what I was talking about in hurricane preparation when discussing the garage door. If that videographer was located 30 miles southeast, and/or his house was positioned facing West, instead of North, his garage door would have failed. If you lose the garage door, YOU COULD LOSE YOUR ROOF.
You can always tell those people who have been through direct hurricane impacts by how they parked their cars. I have never included this in the hurricane advice before so it’s worth a mention. If you lose your Florida garage door you will more than likely lose your roof. That’s just the reality of having a massive opening in your structure to 150 mph winds that will lift the trusses.
If you have two vehicles, put one vehicle inside the garage with the front bumper against the door to help stop the flex (do this carefully). Put the other vehicle outside blocking the garage door facing down the driveway or facing parallel to the garage. The goal is to use the aero dynamics of the car to push the wind away from the door and provide protection.
Purchase a cheap car cover to protect the outside vehicle and/or use old blankets (cable ties, bungee cords) to stop the outside vehicle from getting sandblasted and destroyed. Place double folded corrugated cardboard in front of the radiator to protect it from storm debris.
Additionally, if you live in a flood zone, or if you are concerned about storm surge, the day before impact take your #1 car to the nearest airport or hotel with a parking garage and park in the upper levels. Take an uber back home if you don’t have a friend or partner to help you. This way you know you will have one workable vehicle, just in case.
♦ Another lesson from Ian, if you drive an electric vehicle and sustain saltwater intrusion (of any level) your car is not safe. Saltwater makes the vehicle batteries extremely dangerous, and they could spark or catch fire. Multiple homes survived Hurricane Ian only to have the electric car catch fire in the garage and burn the house to the ground. Hurricane rain is saltwater rain. The fire department was begging people to put their ev’s outside and not to plug them in. Dozens of ev’s also erupted in flames while driving down the streets after the storm.
Back to the video above…
♦ Notice at 24:30 of the video this professional structural engineer is standing and physically supporting his glass patio doors, with his wife, trying to keep them from breaking in due to wind and pressure changes. DO NOT DO THIS ! That is beyond dangerous. Any small item of debris (even a small twig or branch) could hit that window and shatter it, turning flying glass into instant flying blades.
Put 3/4-inch plywood or steel bolted hurricane shutters over all your windows and doors. Period. This is not an option. My steel bolted hurricane shutters were hit with debris so hard – whatever it was physically dented the steel. Every window and door need to be covered and protected, especially glass patio doors (even if tempered). Do not think you can stand there and protect glass doors. It’s beyond dangerous.
♦ Hardening your home is a matter of careful thought and physical work. However, every opening into your structure must be protected, leaving yourself with one small exit opportunity just in case. Hopefully you have a bolted door with no glass windows you can use as an emergency exit. If not, select a small window and leave only enough room uncovered for you to get out in case of emergency or structural collapse.
Beyond the ordinary supplies like drinking water, batteries, flashlights, battery or hand-crank radio, generators, gasoline, etc. Evaluate the scale of what you have against the likelihood of weeks without power or water. A few pro tips below:
♦ Put three 30-gallon trash cans in the shower and fill them with water before the storm. This will give you 90 gallons of water for cooking and personal hygiene. You will also need water to manually flush your toilets. Bottled water is great for drinking, hydrating and toothbrushing, but you will need much more potable water if the municipal supply is compromised or broken.
♦ A standard 6,500-to-8,500-watt generator will run for approximately 8 hours on five gallons of gasoline. Do not run it all the time. Turn it on, chill the fridge, make coffee, use the microwave or charge stuff, then turn it off. Do this in 4-hour shifts and the fridge will be ok and your gasoline will last longer. Gasoline is a scarce and rare commodity in the aftermath of a hurricane. Gas stations don’t work without power. Check the oil in the generator every few days. Also, have a can of quick start or butane available in case the generator starts acting up.
♦ Extension cords. If you are purchasing them buy at least one 100 to 150′ extension cord with a triple ponytail. This way you can use one cord into a central location to charge up your electronic devices. Establish a central recharging station for phones, pads, laptops, and rechargeable stuff.
♦ Purchase a box of “contractor garbage bags” and just keep them in the garage. These are large, thick, industrial trash bags that fit 40-gallon drums. They can be used for trash, or even cut open for tarps in the aftermath of a storm. These thick mil contractor bags have multiple uses following a hurricane.
♦ Do all of your laundry before the hurricane hits. You will likely not have the ability again for a few weeks.
♦ Cook a week’s worth of meals in advance of the hurricane. Store in fridge so you can microwave for a meal. Eating a constant diet of sandwiches gets old after the first week. Dinty Moore canned beef stew and or Chef-boy-ardee raviolis can make a nice break…. anything, except another sandwich.
♦ Have bleach for use in disinfecting stuff before and after a hurricane. Also have antibiotics and antiseptics for use. Hygiene and not getting simple infections after a hurricane is critical and often forgotten. Again, this is where the extra potable water becomes important. Simple cuts and scrapes become big deals when clean potable water is not regularly available. Keep your scrapes and abrasions clean and use antiseptic creams immediately.
♦ Do not forget sunscreen and things to relieve muscle aches and pains. Hurricane recovery involves physical effort. You will be sore and/or exposed to the elements. Remember, it’s all about self-sufficiency because the normal services are not available. A well-equipped first aid kit is a must have.
♦ Buy a small camping stove. Nothing big or expensive, just something you can cook on outside in case of emergency. It will be a luxury when you are 2+ weeks without power and all the stores and restaurants are closed for miles.
♦ Those small flashlights that you can strap around your head that take a few AAA batteries? Yup, GOLD. Those types of handsfree flashlights are lifesavers inside and outside when you need to see your way around. Nighttime is especially dark without electricity in the entire town. Doing stuff like filling a generator with gasoline in the middle of the night is much easier with one of those head strap flashlights. Strongly advise getting a few, they’re inexpensive too.
♦ Cash. You will need it. Without power anything you may need to purchase will require cash, especially gasoline. Additionally, anyone you hire to help or support your immediate efforts will need to be paid. Cash is critical. How much, depends on your individual situation, but your cash burn rate will likely go into the thousands in the first few days. Also keep in mind, you may or may not be able to work and without internet access even getting funds into place could be challenging.
♦ Hardware. A box of self-tapping sheet metal screws (short and long) is important, along with a box or two of various wood screws or Tyvex screws. A battery drill or screw gun is another necessity. Check all of this stuff during hurricane prep.
Look at my house below. If you are not prepared mentally and physically to endure this, potentially for weeks and months, don’t try to ride it out. Just leave.
I have stayed through direct hurricane hits and worked dozens in the aftermath. As a Civilian Emergency Response Team (CERT) leader, I am considered an expert in preparation. However, following my experience with Hurricane Ian, ten full hours of hurricane intense destruction, I would never stay again. Remember, you can always come back later and deal with it.
Posted originally on Sep 18, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I’m blown away by your computer. How did it know about July and September of this year, which you told us about long ago!? We got assassination attempt and cyber attack in July. We got an assassination attempt in September. AND you said Trump Media was in danger week of Sept 16 specifically, giving you heart burn. Amazing!!!
-Scott
REPLY: Many people claim to have AI. ChapGPT has created a feverish bubble around AI without people understanding what it truly is or how to create it. Over 20,000 applications to the SEC claim they have AI models. I suppose they wrote them in three days, the time Kinzinger claims we can beat Russia.
But honestly, most of what is out there is NOT AI—it is clever expert systems with no original analysis. When a reader asked ChatGPT what the difference was between it and Socrates, it was correctly explained.
"Socrates Platform uses artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing to analyze data,
whereas I am primarily focused on natural language processing."
This is a forecast I pulled off of our old site from 1999 on the Wayback Machine, plotted with the chart showing the outcome. In 1999, Socrates forecast that there would be a panic in 2008 about 10 years in advance. When I wrote the code for Socrates, I put myself into the code. I did not use a neural net and hoped that something would come out all on its own by throwing in all the data. This idea of creating just Machine Learning and throwing in all the data, hoping it will suddenly become the most brilliant thing on the planet, is total nonsense. IBM’s Watson proved that fallacy.
There is a lot of misguided hope surrounding Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. All we need to do is look objectively at IBM project WATSON. Just over a decade ago, artificial intelligence (AI) made one of its showier forays into the public’s consciousness when IBM’s Watson computer appeared on the American quiz show Jeopardy. Watson’s debut performance against two of the show’s most successful contestants was televised to a national viewership across three evenings. In the end, the machine triumphed comfortably.
This was NOT actually AI. It is what I call a look-up program. Even ChatGPT is not capable of actually achieving independent thought. They can understand and go fetch the answer faster than a human. The people I knew back then thought Watson would one day cure cancer. None of that was possible because they fooled themselves about AI.
IBM’s Watson could search the entire internet and gather every piece of information possible. That was the easy part. What IBM lacked was the expertise in research. How do you know that one piece of info is the key or more important than another? They lacked the ability to create an actual analysis capability. They hoped it would somehow acquire the skill to do original research all by itself.
Neural Nets were a great hope that somehow you throw in all this information, shake well, and out will magically appear the answer. The presumption was that our minds are just supercomputers, and they ignored perhaps the critical understanding of what makes one person brilliant at math and another a brilliant artist who can’t count beyond 1,000. They can go fetch and look up things and return with the answer faster than any human. But they are no capable of original thought.
Most of AI’s dangers are caused by its failure to comprehend what it is capable of doing—especially in trading. This all stems from the distorted idea that our brains are supercomputers and there is no God, for our consciousness is simply created by throwing in a bunch of data, shaking well, and out comes a person. Thus, the thrust to mimic the brain led to the creation of neural nets. But that effort also failed in actually creating original thought.
The San Francisco-based tech giant OpenAI has announced that a new AI model is capable of “reasoning” at the level of doctorate students. OpenAI has said its next model update “performs similarly to Ph.D. students on challenging benchmark tasks in physics, chemistry and biology.”The company continues to grapple with questions in Washington about the safety of AI. Meanwhile, some OpenAI competitors have appeared upset by their marketing hype ascribing human characteristics to technology. Look, this OpenAI Model does not help when they describe it as “thinking” when it is doing nothing of that sort. It is merely an AI system process that predicts in ways that are basic to classical computers and search engines. OpenAI is exploiting a false impression that technology systems are human, which appears to have come from movie plots like Terminator and Matrix. This is just a cheap trick that threatens the development of AI by raising this nonsense that it will come alive somehow. This is merely a marketing trick to fool people into believing that its ability is humanistic in solving issues.
When I wrote the code that made Socrates, I had international experience as a trader and programmer – that is a very rare combination. The number one problem is the person with experience has to relay that info to a coder who lacks that same know-how. This level of communication never works. It takes a coder with experience to figure out how to reach that end result, whereas the non-coder does not understand all the ways to reach a result. Coding is an art form. Two people can write a program to accomplish the same task, but they arrive at that differently in style.
Back in Stock Now – Sorry Has Been Sold Out for Months
I was named Economist of the Decade during the 1980s, Fund Manager of the Year in the Nineties, and FX Analyst of the Year in the 21st Century. A man cannot write a book to explain how it feels to give birth to a child. It takes experience!
As the movie The Forecaster pointed out, I have traded against Soros and Goldman Sachs.
You have to be in the trading pit to understand even how to trade internationally. John Law traded on the Amsterdam Exchange and came up with the concept of supply vs. Demand. Thomas Greshamcame up with Bad money drive out Good due to hoarding. Both were on the exchange and witnessed how markets moved. You have to see things live to grasp how they work.
When Milton Friedman (1912–2006) came to listen to one of my lectures on who the world really functioned in the new world of floating exchange rates in Chicago, I was stunned. To me I was just a trader. Milton said it was best speech he ever heard, and said what I was doing was what he had just dreamed about.
Milton in 1953 in his Essays in Positive Economics, first proposed a floating exchange rate system that would put pressure on governments. Indeed, I ended up being dragged into governments around the world all because we forecasted currencies.
Only by entering the international arena of geopolitical economics and becoming one of the first international hedge fund managers could I see how the real world worked. This is the experience I had to code into Socrates. The first consideration one must make is country risk. You have to understand the politics of every country for that determines if you should even consider any possible investment. You then go down the list to approve or eliminate countries to consider. That is just the first step.
Most AI follows the idea that, somehow, the computer will figure everything out. They do not understand how the brain functions, nor do they consider what consciousness is. For centuries, many have tried to define it, yet have failed. Neural Nets are based on the idea that neurons interact. Yet, there is something much more. We have a pattern recognition-based system that is far more complex than simply neurons.
For example, looking at this drawing some see the old woman and other the young girl with the nose of the old woman forming her chin and the mouth of the old woman is the necklace of the your girl. We all do not see the same image at first glance. Our mind is a pattern recognition system that then will also fill in the gaps.
Here is a photo of a girl with a Trump T-Shirt. Your mind will fill in the gaps. Is she beautiful or homely? We will imagine what we want to see. The same will happen if we look at the clouds in the sky. Some will see a face, others will question your sanity. Our minds will see patterns and fill in the gaps.
We will also act in ANTICIPATION of the future. When Europe lowered rates to negative in 2014 to try to punish people for savings, they took their money out of the banks. The central bankers failed to comprehend that people will ONLY invest when they have confidence in the future and see a potential for profit. If they do not see the economy will even produce a 1% profit, they will not borrow even at 0.5%. This is why the stock market has NEVER peaked with the same level of interest rates twice in history.
Interest rates rose throughout Trump’s presidency, yet the stock market took off, and they called it the Trump Rally. Yet, these analysts call for lower interest rates and when rates decline, that is the market of a bear market and recession – not a bull market.
I have two French bulldogs. Yet, their personalities are different. What makes that unfold? We can see that the same indescribable character emerges in humans and animals. They have dissected Albert Einstein’s brain to no avail. Something else exists, which nobody has been able to replicate nor even define its origins.
Socrates is far more advanced than anything out there because I coded my experience and taught it how to analyze. Machine learning is fine for determining who may or may not default on a mortgage. That is rudimentary one-dimensional. But when you step into the global economy, this is not some simply one-dimensional relationship you have to deal with. It is far more complex than that, with millions of patterns and correlations on a worldwide scale. You must track everything from taxes and laws to climate, disease, and economic trends on top of capital flow analysis.
To do that film, the Forecaster had to be insured by Llyod of London. Everything in that film had to be documented right down to the non-public command that I had to turn over the code to Socrates, which I refused. It was not my word against theirs; they put it in writing to a lawyer.
Socrates would no more be able to discover the cure for cancer than I would. You cannot code into a system experience you do not have. But the AI being marketed is not really making analytical decisions, nor are they “thinking” and dreaming like a human or anticipating the future. However, Socrates is focused on the world economy, not medicine. If we had another $1 billion and 50 top programmers, perhaps we could expand it into other frontiers. Socrates is gathering a knowledge base constructed upon its experience extending beyond just the programming. There are much deeper layers to this whole thing that will die with me.
Posted originally on Sep 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Around 96% of hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels, with around 1% derived from renewable sources. Global demand for hydrogen is on the rise and will increase to 95 million tonnes by 2022. As over 150+ nations have committed to reducing green policies, hydrogen production has been met with challenges and uncertainty, which is why left-wing billionaires are betting big on searching for buried hydrogen.
Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos are among the founders behind a new startup called Koloma, a geologic hydrogen company that “leverages its technology, proprietary data, and human capital advantages to identify and commercialize these resources on a global scale.” The Denver-based company has already raised over $305 million and believes that it can alter the way the world uses hydrogen.
“Geologic hydrogen should have a very low carbon impact, but also a tiny land footprint and very low water impact,” Koloma CEO Pete Johnson said. Johnson mentioned how Russia and Ukraine were large exporters of hydrogen-derived ammonia, which is needed for most fertilizer products. “Geologic hydrogen resources in the U.S. will allow us to scale up our domestic ammonia production and become a net exporter, even as we dramatically drop the carbon footprint of the products,” he added.
As noted on the company’s website:
“Our production methods source hydrogen in a clean, continuous, and cost-effective manner, eliminating the barriers that have historically hindered widespread adoption. We are actively engaged in exploration and are appraising assets that will play a significant role in US decarbonization efforts. As the rapidly emerging geologic hydrogen industry takes shape, Koloma’s data-driven approach will power the discovery of geologic hydrogen resources around the world.”
Geologic hydrogen is being touted as “gold hydrogen” or “white hydrogen” as its natural origins make it acceptable to green policies. Other startups are popping up such as Breakthrough Energy that is backed by Alibaba’s Jack Ma and Virgin’s Richard Branson. Various companies are now digging for hydrogen in U.S., Canada, Australia, France, Spain, Colombia, and South Korea.
Experts cannot agree on whether there will be enough geologic hydrogen to make a notable difference in the world’s energy use. The Hydrogen Science Coalition, for one, believes that discoveries will produce less energy than a single wind turbine. That’s not stopping big money from backing projects to seek out buried hydrogen in what may become the next gold rush.
There is no plan in place to meet Agenda 2030 or the goal to move toward climate neutrality by 2050. Will this be the next gold rush? It depends on the results of the discoveries and how difficult it becomes for companies to access hydrogen, but this will be nowhere near reminiscent of the actual gold rush, where the average man could make a fortune. We will not see mass migration to areas filled with potential geological hydrogen, unlike the gold rush, where people from throughout the world relocated to the western United States. This will be an industry for the billionaire elite, as will all climate change measures that have no benefits for the average man.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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