Hoard of Roman Gold & Academics


Posted originally on Oct 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong | 

2025 Hoard of Roman Gold

QUESTION: Marty, is there any chance you can buy this hoard to sell for Christmas?

P

ANSWER: I will have some coins for Christmas, but it is unlikely that this gold hoard of 141 coins will ever reach the market. These were found in Luxembourg. They have very draconian laws. All archaeological discoveries, including Roman coins, are considered part of Luxembourg’s national cultural heritage and are the property of the state. You are legally obligated to report the find to the authorities. It does not matter if they have one coin and you have 1,000 more of the same coin. They keep them all and put them in a box, just like in the movie Raiders of the Lost Ark.. Because of the arrogance of academics who insist that everything belongs to them, I would never donate 10 cents to them. I have one friend who said he would leave his ex-wife to them.

In Britain, if you find a hoard of Roman coins, you must first report them. The Coroner will hold an inquest to determine if the find legally qualifies as Treasure. If it is declared Treasure, the Treasure Valuation Committee (a panel of independent experts) will determine its full market value.

Local and national museums are given the opportunity to acquire the Treasure by paying the valuation sum. The reward is split equally between the finder and the landowner, unless a prior agreement states otherwise (e.g., a 50/50 split is standard). You must have permission to be on the land to be eligible for a reward.

In the United States, the government is always greedy. If you find a shipwreck, the government instantly claims the title of these wrecks to the state in whose waters the wreck is located. You cannot claim “finders keepers.”

It all depends on where coins have been discovered. Britain is the best of all. What these governments do not understand is that they are so damn greedy that, since you get nothing and they DO NOT cover your expenses, there is no point in searching for anything.

Villa of the Papyri in Herculaneum

I was asked back in the 1990s if I would fund the excavation of the library in the Villa of the Papyri of Herculaneum, the most luxurious Roman villa, filled with art and a library beyond compare, containing all the lost works yet to be excavated. So far, more than 1,800 papyrus scrolls have been discovered in the 18th century. They had been carbonized when the villa was engulfed by the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD.

Herculaneum 1

Obviously, you cannot retain anything. The primary issue is that it is located 100 feet underground, and a town has been built on most of the Villa. That is easy to see with this picture I took. The government lacks the necessary funds to complete the job, which is part of the problem. They claim ownership and block anyone from recovering anything. So much of the Villa remains untouched. The original 18th-century excavation, which employed tunnel mining techniques, uncovered a vast portion of the villa, including part of the renowned library that housed the papyrus scrolls. However, this early excavation was haphazard and incomplete. Thus, state funds are directed at politicians to retain power.

Herculaneum 2 MAA

You can see the depth of Herculaneum and the problem that there is a town over the site itself. The owner of the Villa of the Papyri was a relative of Julius Caesar. The leading candidate for the owner of the villa is Lucius Calpurnius Piso Caesoninus (c. 100– 43BC). He was a powerful Roman senator and consul. Piso’s daughter, Calpurnia, was married in 59BC to Julius Caesar. She was his last wife and famously tried to warn him not to go to the Senate on the Ides of March.

Piso was a respected and influential senator from a noble plebeian family. By marrying his daughter Calpurnia, Caesar gained a crucial ally within the conservative senatorial establishment (the optimates) who could help smooth the passage of his legislation and defend his interests while he was away on his campaigns in Gaul. As a direct result of this alliance, Piso was elected Consul for the year 58 BC, the year after Caesar’s consulship. He used his position to protect Caesar’s political arrangements from his enemies in the Senate. Piso prevented his daughter from being forced to marry Mark Antony. Piso, as the father-in-law, played the most direct and important role in Julius Caesar’s political career.

Getty Villa Villa of the Papyri at Herculaneum

The Getty Museum in California is a copy of the architectural plans of the Villa that were discovered.

Interview: NATO’s War Agenda, Neocons, and the Collapse of Europe


Posted originally on Oct 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Interview: Gold to $5,000, Dow 65,000, & Why Florida Replaced Wall Street–Part 1


Posted originally on Oct 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

What Politicians Need To Understand


Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Not Everything Works Out As Expected – Beware of Unintended Consequences

Liberty & the Passage of Time


Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

European Schengen Entry Exit System

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

I’m sure you’re aware of the new European Schengen Entry Exit System (EES), that’s set to go live in just a few weeks, October 12th. Once it’s live, then anyone entering or exiting the Schengen area will be required to submit biometric data (fingerprints and face scan) into the system and renew every 3 years.

As someone that’s actually in Schengen right now, I’m torn on this. On the one hand, I really don’t trust any of these politicians or systems with my personal data, who knows how vulnerable it could be to hacking, breaches, leaks etc, or just being used for nefarious purposes.

On the other hand, your model has said repeatedly that the EU is highly unlikely to survive past 2030 anyway. So this EES thing is just a last gasp, eleventh hour bureaucratic nuisance that’s probably going to be gone in a few years anyway, along with the EU itself.

So I wanted to ask what you’d do in regards to engaging or not engaging with this system.
Would you:
1) Take a hardline stance on this and do NOT, under any circumstances, submit your biometric data to this system. Change travel plans as necessary to get out of Schengen before this system goes live and don’t go back to any Schengen country unless/until this system folds or is cancelled.
OR
2) Don’t even worry about it in bigger picture terms, since the EU (and presumably all such EU bureaucratic systems like this) are highly likely to fold by 2030 anyway, so who cares. Just go where you like, tolerate the extra few minutes of hassle and just forget about it, knowing it’s all likely to crumble in a few years anyway.

How would you see this Martin? Thanks for all the work you do.
Regards,
OP

One World Government 1

ANSWER: This is a global effort to control everyone on the planet. This is an insane, lofty dream of the Globalists who understand that not everyone complies with their ideas, so the answer is this dream of theirs of a one-world government. The computer clearly shows that they will never succeed. That will require the surrender of not just your individual personal data, but also sovereignty and all aspects of democracy.

Schwab WEF End of Democracy

Much of this agenda is laid out in the World Economic Forum’s blueprint for the world. They essentially are Marxists taking this to the next level and fail to grasp why Communism fell in the first place. This is the perennial academic dream of a Socialist Utopia that often turns into a Socialist Dystopia.

Roman Libertas Chained Galba

It will be impossible to take a hard line. They will only imprison you. If you do not need to travel in and out, then bide your time. When you leave, do not return until the smoke clears. They are doing this out of desperation. LIBERTY is being destroyed for these people to retain their power; they view that we are the unruly and must be controlled at every step of the way. This has been repeated time and again throughout history, yet nobody in history has ever succeeded in this quest for supreme power. Marx’s idea of extinguishing LIBERTY for EQUALITY resulted in the deaths of nearly 300 million and counting. Each ruler believes they can accomplish supreme power because the alternative is a loss of control and the termination of their power.

Roman Libertas standing tall

LIBERTY will never be extinguished. She can be chained only temporarily. She will always stand tall and endure, knowing in the end she will rise again. Even Thomas Jefferson recognized this and said, “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” 

US17941 r

The first American Silver Dollar of 1794 features LIBERTAS with flowing hair, resurfacing once again from the grip of authoritarian control.

2032 Sixth Wave

This is what 2032 is all about. I have warned that history is our roadmap because those in power will ALWAYS act out of their own self-interest, and that is what makes history repeat – human nature never changes with the passage of time. Post-2032, we will have the opportunity to rewrite the Constitutions of governments. Let’s be practical – no Republics!

Seasonal Hires Reach 16-Year Low


Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Online Shopping

Seasonal retail hiring may plummet to the lowest level since 2009. Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects retailers to add under 500,000 temporary positions in the final three months of the year, an 8% annual decline, and the smallest gain in 16 years. Retail depends on holiday Q4 sales for a bulk of annual revenue and the hiring trend is a glaring sign of a declining economy.

Certain retailers, like Target, stated that they plan to offer overtime hours to existing employees. Yet another sign of the times as people are eager for additional income and companies are not keen to take on additional employees.

A PwC survey from September 2025 indicates that the average person plans to spend 5% less this holiday season, down from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,552 per person. The survey has not indicated a drop in holiday sales since 2020. PwC’s figure translates to ~$413B–$460B total if scaled to ~266M adult consumers. Gen Z notably plans to spend 23% less this year as the cost of living has caused most young adults to live paycheck to paycheck, whereas boomers with sufficient savings plan to spend 5% more.

The National Retail Federation (NRF), however, predicts US retail sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion for the year. As for holiday spending, the NRF predicts a rise between 2.5% and 3.5% reaching a total between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.

Hiring trends in retail indicate that companies are less than optimistic about overall foot traffic this holiday season. Americans are spending more on less. Discretionary spending has been on the decline as inflation never meaningly waned.

US GDP Rose 3.8% in Q3


Posted originally on Sep 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

GDP 3

US GDP grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2, surpassing estimates of 3.3%, leading the press to cheer a strong and robust economy. By design, the GDP calculation counts net exports as a positive. When imports collapse, GDP rises even though that is a signal of weakened consumer demand.

Consumer spending rose by 2.5%, rising 0.6% from Q1, and overperformed compared to the 1.6% estimate. Again, the underlying cause of that rise is not consumer confidence. The price of goods remains elevated, and consumers are spending more on less. Household debt is now at record highs across every area, from mortgages to credit cards and auto loans. It is an illusion that higher consumer spending indicates prosperity.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) accurately stated that the “primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a substraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.” This does not mean companies are simply purchasing domestically due to tariffs.

The GDP calculation, albeit better than anticipated, does not indicate long-term strength in the economy. The decline in imports has skewed the figure in favor of government so it looks as if policies are working and the US is somehow immune to the global economic decline. The US cannot experience meaningful growth when demand in declining due a loss of confidence and debt is rapidly accumulating.

Gold – Dow & People Pretending to be Me.


Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Gold and IBM Share Certificate

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for your ground-breaking analysis. I was a gold-only bug, and you opened my eyes to capital flows, explaining that gold rises not due to inflation, but geopolitical tensions. You have been forewarned that when Europe is flirting with war, the capital will flee, and it will be on every boat to the USA. We have gold making new highs, and the Dow is also reaching new highs. Something the gold crowd always said the opposite. You said gold could test the $5,000 level due to war as soon as 2026, I believe. At the same time, others continue to claim that the stock market will crash and revise their forecasts with every new high.

I just wanted to say you are honestly making a difference. I know people steal your work and claim it as their own. I discovered some people created channels and pretend to be you on Telegram and elsewhere. I do not understand their game. You do not solicit money. I’m not sure if they are trying to ruin your reputation. I reported what I encountered to your staff.

I know you have more money than God because you don’t raise your prices, you don’t solicit money, and you don’t sell advertising.

Please do not get discouraged.

Cheers

FDS

REPLY: Thank you for bringing that to our attention. I am not sure what is going on with people pretending to be me. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY STOCK INDIVIDUALLY, AND I DO NOT MANAGE MONEY. If you want to know about an individual share that is on Socrates. Some funds trade based on Socrates, but sorry, – been there, done that. I am far too busy to manage money. I am honestly working seven days a week, from 7 AM to midnight, and I still can’t get ahead of the workload. Anyone pretending to be me, telling you to buy a specific stock or promising to manage your money, is a fraud. Let our staff know.

As far as the market is concerned, I will do a Private Post this week. There can be a brief correction in the share market after this week. But it still does not appear to be a major long-term bear market or crash. As far as gold is concerned, the key resistance is really $4500 for next year. Gold has to pass that, and then it would test the $5,000 level. Exceeding that level, the expectations will then jump to $10,000. It gets dicey after $5,000.

If I had more money than God, I suppose that means people wouldn’t contribute to any church.

When Monetary and Fiscal Policies Blur


Posted originally on Sep 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

fiscal_cliff_10937_h264_19201 ezgif.com video to gif converter

The Federal Reserve should operate independently of Washington. It does not. Stephan Miran was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by Donald Trump. Miran, who served as a top economic adviser to Trump and served as the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, switched from controlling fiscal to monetary policy and now the lines between Washington and the Fed are completely blurred.

Miran believes interest rates should eventually be cut in half. He mistakenly believes the old Keynesian theories that lower rates will result in higher employment. “The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2 percent,” he said. “However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed’s employment mandate.”

“The upshot is that monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” he said. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.”

I’ve explained numerous times why this line of thinking is flawed. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future. Not a single client has suggested that they were waiting for rates to drop to expand their business. Look what happened in Japan when they artificially lowered rates to zero for decades. The economy stagnated because confidence was lost.

The reason politicians love low rates is not to help the people but to help government. With the US national debt now spiraling out of control, every uptick in rates increases the cost of debt service. Trump knows this. Biden knew it too. Every administration eventually leans on the Fed to keep rates down because the alternative is insolvency.

Trump appointed Miran for a reason. Powell was unwilling to play into politics, but Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, is an installed loyalist who will ensure the government’s ability to borrow continues.

The World According to Martin Armstrong – An Amazon Bestseller


Posted originally on Sep 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

KerryLutzBook

The World According to Martin Armstrong

We’re closing in on 3,000 copies sold — and for good reason. This book has already become an Amazon Bestseller, and it’s the only place you’ll find all of Martin’s major forecasts collected in one volume.

Over the past 14 years, more than 15 of these forecasts have come true — and many are still unfolding right now.

From sovereign debt crises, political upheavals, energy shocks, and the turning points in gold, silver, and equities — it’s all here, straight from the man who built Socrates.

As one reader put it:

“This book is the Rosetta Stone of Martin’s work. To see all the forecasts laid out in one place shows you just how accurate — and how consistent — he’s been.”

Whether you’re a longtime follower or just discovering Armstrong Economics, this is the essential reference to understand the cycles driving our world.