It’s a Recession Not a Depression


Posted originally on Jul 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Recession Global

The government insists that the economy is fine, thriving perhaps, and has asked the public to pay no mind to their current financial situation. No one, aside from those living off government assistance, are better off now than they were four years ago. Americans cannot be gas lit into believing the economy is sound when every social-economic group is suffering.

Americans have already lost confidence in the economy and, therefore, in the government.

A recent poll by Affirm found that 3 in 5 Americans believe the US is in a recession, and most believe that recession began in March 2023. Another poll from Guardian/Harris found that 56% of Americans feel that the recession has already arrived. Seven in 10 Americans have reported that they are unable to save for the future. About 68% of respondents from the Affirm poll believe inflation has caused the recession, but few realize what causes inflation.

Credit card debt has reached an all-time high, with 8.9% of balances falling into delinquency as of May 2024. Bankruptcies are on the rise both personal and corporate. A CNN poll discovered that 39% of Americans worry that they may no longer be able to pay their bills. The poll saw similar sentiments during the Great Recession when 37% of Americans feared the next round of bills. Moody’s Analytics believes that household spending has risen $925 per month compared to three years due to inflation. Sixty-five percent of respondents said that the cost of living crisis is the most significant issue our nation faces. Politicians would be wise to focus on domestic issues as the people are on the brink.

Americans are spending more on less as economic conditions have begun to impact the average person’s quality of life. CNN also reported that 35% of adults are taking on second jobs to combat the price of living. Sixty-nine percent are spending less on entertainment, a correlation we have seen with corporate bankruptcies primarily rising in non-essential sectors. Another 41% say they cut down on driving to save on energy costs. Sixty-eight percent of American families have had to cut back on grocery spending, despite US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen denying food inflation entirely.

Bidenomics failed. We are in a recession but not a depression. People hoard when they fear for the future, and that is happening not only as a result of economic conditions but geopolitical tensions and war will cause people to spend less. Then, to fund these wars and other spending packages, the government raises taxes, which is always recessionary. The computer had long warned that the American economy would turn down in May 2024 and not resurface until 2028.

June Home Sales Drop in Line with ECM


Posted Jul 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

RealEstate

I noted that real estate in the United States would turn into a buyer’s market in May 2024 going into August 2028 in a reversal from the buyer’s market we’ve experienced since 2020. The 2007 high on the Shiller Index was the precise day of the Economic Confidence Model. So far, all the indicators have confirmed that we should have a recessionary trend into 2028 with this turn in the model on this wave.

The National Association of Realtors finally agreed that we are now amid a buyer’s market after June posted the lowest number of sales for 2024 despite a notable rise in inventory. Home sales fell 5.4% in June from May, when the market flipped, to 3.89 million units. This figure is also 5.4% lower than home sales in June 2023.

Gone are the days where buyers would forego inspections and entering bidding wars where the listing price was by no means the final sale price. Inventory from June 2023 to June 2024 has risen 23.4% to 1.32 million available units. Inventory is still a challenge, as are housing prices. The median home cost $426,900 last month, marking a new record-high as well as a 4.1% annual increase.

US_Residential_Real_Estate_Index_Analysis 12 13 23

Homes on the lower end of the spectrum have been keeping averages down. Single-family units between $200K and $350K rose 50% in the past year, according to Realtor.com. There are more homes available now than there have been since May 2020, when sellers reigned supreme. Mortgage rates are far higher than during the 2020 era, and Americans are seeing their available funds dwindling. It is harder for potential buyers to enter the market.

Smart money views mortgages as an alternative to unsecured government debt. Cash remains king with 28% of buyers who have the means opting to forego mortgages entirely, and often can decline high insurance premiums as well. We are also witnessing a mass migration from blue states into red states and should expect prices to decline where there is a dampened demand. It is difficult to view real estate from a national perspective in the United States as demand is up in red states as people continue to leave increasingly oppressive policies regarding taxation, crime, education, and business. If you were thinking of buying a new house right now, lock in the interest rate, for with war on the horizon, long-term rates will rise.

Tax Code Change for Emergency Retirement Withdrawals


Posted Jul 22, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

401K

Low-income Americans are in such dire straits due to the elevated cost of living that lawmakers are making changes to the tax code. No, naturally, the politicians are not voting to decrease taxes for those who can barely get by. Instead, they’re permitting Americans to pull a mere $1,000 out of their retirement accounts without penalty.

Those withdrawing emergency funds from a 401K will need to explain their hardship to their employer, but employers do not need to approve the withdrawal. The government will tax the $1,000 if it is not paid back within three years and no additional emergency withdrawals may be taken out until the money is paid back in full.

The economy is shifting into a world of haves and have-nots as the middle class diminishes. A January 2024 survey found that 60% of Americans had less than $500 in liquidity, with only 12% possessing over 12%. The debt vortex is unforgiving and all too many Americans have become trapped in a cycle of perpetually servicing new debt, similar to our Federal Reserve.

CreditCardDebt.Chart_

A Vanguard study found that 3.6% of the 5 million retirement accounts on record made an emergency withdrawal in 2023, moving upward from 2.8% the year prior. Bank of America and Fidelity reported similar findings last year on a quarterly basis. These people may be subjected to a 10% tax due to the early distribution because chances are they will be unlikely to pay back the funds. Credit card debt has reached a historic high in the US among every income level, so this last resort option has become unavoidable for many.

This program is an insult to the American people who contribute to our system with nothing in return. These same people who do not have a mere $1,000 for an emergency are paying into the giant Ponzi scheme that is Social Security with each paycheck. They must pay for Medicare and Medicare even if they will never use the services. They’re likely subject to an income tax depending on their state regardless of income level.  If accounting for a population of 335 million, the average American has paid about $522 in taxes toward Ukraine alone. The US is paying about $1,700 per month per illegal migrant welcomed in by the open border policy.

Then Uncle Sam comes around every April and gives the lowest paid Americans a tax refund check, failing to acknowledge that they preventing those Americans from earning interest on that money that they desperately needed. It is a grand lie that the socialist-leaning politicians care about the working man when their social programs and handouts guarantee tax increases on everyone. It is a shame that those attempting to do right by society and not leaning entirely on government assistance are punished by our tax code.

BIG PICTURE


Posted originally on the CTH on July 7, 2024 | Sundance

Someone noted last year that after my research trip my tone changed. Perhaps becoming a little more deliberate, perhaps becoming a little more stern. It is an accurate sense, and there is a very good reason for this. I will explain.

I have noted several times in the past few years that the nature of our relationship with government seems to have shifted. Specifically, We The People now appear to be in an abusive relationship with government. In all abusive relationships there is a common set of behaviors; the DC control system is following a familiar pattern. My recent research trips helped me to understand exactly how severe and deep this shift has become.

Certain abusers distort reality in the mind of their victims through gaslighting. Essentially manipulative and strategic lying, to make the abused think something, perhaps even their reality, is completely different. Our government institutions and those who control the information flow into media have been doing exactly that. The examples are numerous, but the deliberateness began to take a severe tone with the COVID-19 fiats.

In my opinion, it was our willingness to buy into the false frameworks surrounding the COVID-19 hysteria, that really opened the eyes of possibility in the mind of powerful people within our government. We accepted too much; we allowed too much; we willingly accepted an almost totalitarian state in response.

The rules themselves were ridiculous.

The mask nonsense, the social distancing, business closures, lockdowns, “essential vs nonessential jobs”, roped off products in certain areas of stores as if the virus couldn’t travel or the types of purchases determined risk; people were arrested on paddleboards in the ocean by themselves, closed parks outside and the police watching; standing in a restaurant was dangerous, but sitting at a table was not; etc. etc.

All of it was madness, yet we complied.

It was almost like a test, to see how much the control of information could influence behavior – and bad actors within our government were paying attention to how easy it was to manipulate action, diminish liberty and control the behavior of free people.

Granted, in other countries it was worse; yet still, in the USA where our DNA is forged in the fire of being suspicious of government, three-quarters of the population took an untested experimental, gene modifying “vaccine.” In hindsight, it is stunning to consider.

Fast forward to my recent research trip(s).  What I discovered outside the USA, is that we are being lied to.

The Russian sanctions are not sanctioning Russia or impeding their economic growth – not even close. Instead, the sanctions have built walls around the USA financial system, not to keep Russians out – but to keep Americans locked in. I have given details about this previously, and I will not repeat here.

Then, if you take the expanding surveillance state and the expansion of DHS authority under the guise of “national security,” adding in the extreme control system now in place through the public-private partnership with social media, you really begin to see the architecture of a massive information control system. Making the reality all the bleaker, no voice in Washington DC is genuinely pushing back and publicly calling out the surveillance state.

Our elected representatives are not representing our interests; instead, they are codependent enablers, willfully blind to the overall system of expanded government control. The abuser is stronger, the victim is weaker (less free), and every element is now in place to block the victim, us, from realizing the scale of their abuse.

Making the issue more alarming, is the seemingly unstoppable censorship and control enterprise that is blocking people from networking, communicating and sharing their current status. This was the primary reason I began the protected “Slowly at First” (SAF) discussion threads. So people could just talk about the reality in their region, and we could all compare notes.

Something very dark is assembling deep inside our nation, and yet we are seemingly distracted from noticing it. The reality of motive behind the U.S. sanctions against Russia, as identified by my fact-finding mission that was not easy to accomplish, really made me reconsider the nature of the control around us.

What I realize now, is that agencies within our federal government are building a matrix of walls to lock us into a severely controlled system.  We are being isolated, and we do not see it.

We can debate (and I have) while hiding behind the benefits of “tactical civics” all day long. But what we are really debating and accepting is the size of our cell or cell block.  Yes, locally you can and should fight for liberty – locally.  However, do not blind yourself to the reality of the outcome; in essence, we are creating 15-minute cities.  Is that really freedom?

Within the federal system under construct, information is being controlled. The online systems of sharing contrary information are being changed, modified and ultimately blocked. Our expenditures and costs of living are being used as weapons for control via monetary policy. Our systems of independent ownership and self-determination are being dismantled. Our ability to engage in commerce is being increasingly subject to approvals.  Some of those approvals are self-generated. Our finance system is being changed to a more controlling central bank, and perhaps a digital currency.

We The People are being isolated, just like a victim of toxic abuse would be isolated. There are walls and barriers being built all around us, even around our nation, and if the government were to take full control over digital communication and internet services (the path we are on), it’s unlikely we would even know the scale of our captivity.

So yeah, my tone is changing.

After my visit to Eastern Europe and the currently forbidden region, both of them, I now see the limits on freedom that exist here at home. Each of the datapoints, each of the stories, articles, research reviews and detailed documented instances of bad behavior from our federal government now takes on a different context.

As I detailed every moment and filled our research library with citation after citation over the past dozen years, I knew the trajectory was bad. I knew it was really bad – really bad. Yet, I had no idea how severe and bad the abuse had become until I stood in the forbidden world and realized everything I was told about it, was a lie.

Remember, I wasn’t there at the invitation of anyone. I wasn’t there with a handler, minder or escort. No one from the forbidden world even knew I was there. I was there as a free and independent person, a sovereign citizen who hacked his way through the jungle with a rusty machete to get there.

When I left the forbidden world, came back through eastern Europe through Istanbul and ultimately back into the west, I spent hours in careful contemplation trying to reconcile the motive for the false information and yet simultaneously put a mental scale together to evaluate the scope of the U.S. propaganda effort.

The only thing that makes any of it make sense, is to accept the datapoints that clearly show the walls being built around us – to isolate us.

I never really understood how people could accept the formation of communism around them.

Now I do.

I see it happening, and that is making me very angry.

I have also spent hours on my knees, deliberately asking our loving God – the one source of purest truth – to guide and help me.

I am shouting now.  We must stop our isolation.

Tucker: Adjusted For Inflation, We’ve Lost 13% Of Our Real GDP Over The Last 3 Years


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: July 05, 2024 at 08:00 pm EST

Marxists in Disarray Ahead of 2025


Marxists in Disarray Ahead of 2025

Posted originally on Jul 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

QueersforPalestine

The left is cannibalizing itself across the Western world. Pride month parades for LGBTQ community members have been repeatedly disrupted by pro-Palestinian protestors. The two causes certainly do not align, but the people who compose each seem to be confused when crossing their social justice causes. Over the weekend, a Pride Toronto event was canceled at the last minute due to pro-Palestinian protestors. Event organizers were forced to cancel the event due to public safety.

Again, this exact scenario has happened in big cities across the US, Canada, and Europe in recent weeks. I’ve explained at length why the Free Palestine movement is not a woke cause despite the confusion among protestors. What’s interesting about the Toronto Pride event is that “Queers for Palestine” protestors were part of problem as they were responsible for blocking part of the road. Any non-socialist supporting group would be arrested for committing a hate crime if they blocked off a Pride parade, but the left is in utter disarray as there are simply too many social justice causes to support and flags to wave.

TeddyRoosevelt.Immigration

The far-left has lost control and there is no leader at the helm. Maxime Bernier, former Conservative MP and Cabinet Minister and Peoples Party of Canada founder, consistently comes under fire for “far-right” ideals. Recently, he suggested that people should return to the nation that has their loyalty. “Residents of Canada who feel more attached and loyal to another country should pack up and move to that other country. We don’t need you here,” he posted on X. He has been labeled a xenophobic racist for stating a fact.

LeftistGroupThought

The collective left fails to understand that they could not protest or march for either cause outside of the West that they so desperately hate. All recent polls in Canada state that mass migration is a massive problem. What’s worse is that the people migrating from countries with an utterly foreign code of conduct are unable to integrate into society. Why should nations be forced to change their ideals? Anyone can do as they see fit, so long as they are not harming the public. Yet we are seeing a mass uptick in terrorism, anti-[insert open border nation here] protests, and crimes against women and young girls. This is happening throughout the West but those in charge are failing to address it because it does not fit the refugees welcome, open border narrative.

People are now fleeing nations like Canada and Europe because it has become too reminiscent of the places they once fled. Marxism always leads to a failed economy, and that is the root issue driving these woke and white-led pro-Palestinian protests, as the people believe that capitalism is preventing unearned equality. Marxism will end for it includes everything that seeks to manipulate for the benefit of the so-called people that is really now government workers at the expense of the private sector. However, the living standards of the people in general have declined, not because of the “rich”, but because of the growing unproductive sector we call government.

1913 2025 224 year Cycles

Our computer warns that 2025 will be the turning point in Marxism. We are less than a year away from a major cultural shift at the midpoint of the 224-year cycle.

Liberals Fall Out of Favor


Posted originally on Jun 28, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

The Liberals of Canada have fallen out of favor, as evidenced by party’s defeat in the special election. Toronto – St. Paul’s had been filled by Liberals since 1993, but has been overtaken by Conservatives. We see this trend happening throughout the world as the politics have shifted so far left that the people have been swayed like a pendulum to the opposite side.

Angus Reid released a poll earlier in the week to ask Canadian’s who they’d like to replace Prime Minister Dictator Justin Trudeau. There was not enough support for any replacement to indicate that the Liberals could win, with Conservatives overpowering the Liberal Party by a 21-point gap. “Canadians are more likely than not to say rumoured successors such as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc and President of the Treasury Board Anita Anand would drive them away from the party,” the Angus Reid poll found.

Bad news for the Liberal Party as they were positioning Freeland, a fellow World Economic Forum zealot, to be Trudeau’s successor.

Trudeau 7

The poll asked undecided voters why they were hesitant to support the Liberal Party and it comes down to results. About 31% said they simply do not want Justin Trudeau to lead, with another 29% citing government spending as their main issue. Simply wait until the impact of the capital gains taxes are felt, which I believe will cause far more people to flee the Liberal Party and never look back.

Two out of five (37%) voters are leaning toward the Liberal Party, but almost half (48%) of those voters say the current administration has not made any meaningful issues on any matter that they find important such as housing, price stability, or health care. What could the Liberals do within the next year to solve these issues? Trudeau has certainly had enough time to address these issues, but instead, he has only exacerbated them.

Yet, 60% of Canadians said they are not fully locked into one party over another. More Conservatives (65%) said they will vote for their party regardless, with only 38% of Liberals feeling the same and 30% of New Democrats.

Overall, 60% of voters cited the cost of living and runaway inflation as their top concerns. This is the same concern for people throughout the West, be it in Canada, the United States, or anywhere in the EU. The talking heads can tell us our economies are well and good all they want but the people see their quality of life declining as a direct result of government policies. We listen when our governments announce endless aid packages to foreign nations with no concern for their countries. The people are simply exhausted by the current world leaders and are seeking a change. Will the establishment under the thumb of globalists permit the people to vote for a new authority? The months ahead shall be interesting.

Warner Brothers & CNN Disaster


Posted originally on Jun 27, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |

WarnerBrothers M 6 27 24

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Socrates has been so bearish on CNN’s owner, Warner Brothers, and the dabate is so rigged that other networks are even up in arms over CNN’s rules. We sold down all our institutional holdings in Warner Brothers, thanks to Socrates. Do you think this stock will collapse due to this debate that looks as corrupt as the New York courts?

Anonymous

ANSWER: The problem with Warner Brothers is it appears to be not just fully on board with the WOKE agenda that is reflected in its price decline, but its CEO and president, David Zaslav, may be part of this coincidence with those in the White House who are also Jewish with heritage back to Ukraine who claim their families were persecuted by the Russians for being Jewish at the start of the Russian Revolution in 1905. Even Wikipedia states: “His family was part of the diaspora from Poland and Ukraine.” 

Trump Putin Puppet

This raises some questions about whether Zaslav has been using Warner Brothers for personal biases against Russia and, thus, Trump. CNN’s anchor hosting this debate compared Trump to Hitler. If anyone did that to Biden, it would be in the headlines everywhere. We cannot say what Zaslav’s motivations have been one way or the other. However, his management of Warner Brothers does not appear to be in the best interest of shareholders. A CEO should be impartial, like a judge. Personal views do not belong in the boardroom or on the Nightly News. That is what OpEds are for – not anchors.

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The major support lies at $5.10, and an annual closing below that for 2024 will be devastating. It is interesting that we have a Panic Cycle this month, living up with the CNN debate, but then again in January. Institutional investors have been dumping Warner Brothers big time. The CNN rules and restrictions they put on other networks are trying to create a monopoly on the debate, and rejecting any criticism of CNN staff is more like Pravda of Communist Russia days. It will be a hit job to interfere in the 2024 elections because Warner Brothers is so far left their stock is collapsing amid a great bull market. Why ANYONE would own anything of this company is just amazing. I guess they just hate Trump and see this as paying for his destruction rather than an investment.

Pro-Palestinian Protests Permitted in Blue States


Posted originally on Jun 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Pro-Palestinian protestors have been wreaking havoc in US cities for a cause they do not properly understand. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has proved to the nation that his idea of justice equates to demonizing and prosecuting his political opponents while turning an eye to real crimes committed in favor of left-leaning policies.

After illegally camping on the grounds of Columbia University for weeks, over 40 protestors broke into the university and barricaded themselves inside. In the process, they kidnapped several staff members who were forbidden to leave the building that they sealed with zip ties, chairs, tables, and any barricades they could find. The protestors removed security cameras in the building. Students were unable to attend their own graduation ceremony. Columbia President Minouche Shafik called the incident “a violent act that put our students at risk.” Although the police arrested 44 people, Bragg has decided not to prosecute the majority of those responsible.

Yet, Bragg has been relentless in prosecuting former President Donald Trump for non-violent perceived offenses that he had to fabricate in order to create a case. Senator Ted Cruz spoke out against Bragg, noting that Democrats across the US are turning a blind eye to the crimes of pro-Palestinian crooks. “The Democrats you elected and put in charge, they support the radicals and they refuse to prosecute them. You know what, you do that in Texas, you do that in Florida, you do that in Georgia, you do that in Alabama, you will be arrested and you will be prosecuted. There is a consequence if you elect Republicans who actually believe in prosecuting criminals,” Cruz added.

StagedAgitatorsCivilUnrestPalestine

College campuses have turned into circuses, overtaken by protests that turn into riots. Where have we seen this before? Precisely the last election cycle where the Democrats kneeled before statues of George Floyd and permitted the Black Lives Matter gangs to burn down their very own cities. One would hope the rioters do not take the violence to the same extreme as the last election cycle where looting was permitted and the police were utterly unable to act amid calls to defund the police. But it is not looking good as tensions are rising between two groups of thought in this nation.

I would encourage those interested in the truth behind these deliberate acts of civil unrest to read my article on the Cloward-Priven strategy.

The four steps of the Cloward-Piven Strategy:
1. Overload and Break the Welfare System
2. Have Chaos Ensue
3. Take Control in the Chaos
4. Implement Socialism and Communism through Government Force

Those in charge like Bragg have taken matters to step four as they are taking control amid the chaos. They have long allowed the chaos to ensue. Now, they will implement restrictions to “protect” the nation from wrongdoers in our midst. The problem becomes that the prosecutors believe riots in the name of liberal social causes are fair, and gathering of like-minded conservatives pose a threat to national security.

We know that these organized groups have been funded by Democrat-backed super PACs and philanthropists like Soros, who openly speak of meddling in our elections. There is a concerted effort to destabilize the United States ahead of this election. The rule of law has been lost, and half of the country is considered a threat.

Our computers are predicting a major twist come September ahead of the election. Joe Biden simply cannot win fairly and the establishment would never permit Trump back into the Oval Office as he would have most of them arrested and halt plans for the Great Reset. The coming months will be extremely volatile as the left grows increasingly tyrannical.

Japan – China – US Debt


Posted Jun 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Japan remains the largest holder of the US as of May 2024, holding $1.186 trillion in Treasury securities and 14.7% of all foreign-owned US debt. China has been selling off its holdings in an urgent effort to distance itself from the US, but is currently the second-largest holder of US debt, carrying about $767.4 billion as of March 2024. I largely speak about China’s debt holdings because they were the top buyer of US debt before the political landscape changed.

Within a mere four years, China sold off 30% of its holdings or over $250 billion in US debt. This assisted the yuan in general as China was able to use the exchange rate to buy yuan when the currency depreciated. China seemed to be assisting Trump years ago in lowering the dollar to ease trade frictions. That is no longer the case here as the United States enacted economic warfare against Russia, pushing it off SWIFT, confiscating private assets, and implementing countless sanctions. The United States did all of this to Russia without officially being at war. Who is to say the same would not happen to China under the excuse of Taiwan?

Negative interest rates were a huge mistake for Japan. Unlike China, Japan aims to strengthen ties with the US. The nation drastically increased its holdings of US debt in 2023. US bonds seem safter than the low-yield returns provided domestically in Japan. Funds are moving out of Japan and into the US. They see US debt as relatively safe as they have a strong alliance with the US and the yield are simply higher.

The advice I used to provide to Japan to help reduce the trade friction was to buy gold in New York and sell it in London. The trade numbers could care less about the product actually being exported. It will reduce the trade deficit and make US exports appear to rise. It is just an accounting ploy. Likewise, the booming exports of China were being manipulated by Chinese companies borrowing dollars in Hong Kong and then bringing that money into China and collecting three times that cost in interest. Headlines are always made on the numbers without understanding the accounting.

I received the question of why I speak about China’s purchases and not Japan’s. Again, I speak primarily of China’s offloading of US debt because that is a larger issue. China has not slowed its pace of offloading US Treasuries and this becomes a problem as the debt crisis will come to a head when there is simply no one willing or able to buy US government debt. The Fed desperately needed China’s participation as its plan was to roll over its debts perpetually. They simply cannot pay off $34+ trillion and counting. Japan and the UK cannot compensate for the loss of Chinese purchases.