Tag Archives: Economic Collapse

Feb 15 2023

Depression Scrip – Coming to a Region Near You


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 15, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: At the WEC, you said as the nation breaks apart, the most likely course of action will be the creation of local currencies. You also said you would post a catalog of Depression Scrip. I have not seen that. Can you post that, please?

Thank you for a great WEC. Always learning something new.

GJ

ANSWER: Sorry. I may have forgotten to publish that because I searched Amazon and could not find it. It was published back in 1984. Because Depression Scrip is not a huge field of collectors largely because most have never heard of the existence of private currency during the Great Depression, this book is quite rare. You may find some used copies that go for $125 or more.

I have studied the subject from the standpoint of economics. During the reign of Tiberius (14-37AD), he was very frugal and as such there was a shortage of money which led to a Financial Panic in 33AD. During such periods, private money surfaces as a necessity. This is why history repeats because human nature never changes. It will always respond the same way.

Here is private money from the Panic of 1837. The denomination reads 12 1/2 cents. This was issued by a Coffee House. Here is a half-penny issued by the New York store of Macy’s in 1876 following the Panic of 1873.

Throughout history, we see the very same reaction each and every time. I have collected a large number of private currencies covering the various financial waves of panic since Roman times. It has been a critical part of being able to forecast what takes place during these events. The common denominator is always humanity since we never change for thousands of years. We only progress in terms of technology – not our human emotions.

Here is private scrip issued by the San Francisco Clearing House where transactions were settled in the bond and stock markets. The backing was the private shares in companies. This was the Panic of 1907.

Here is another issued in 1908 in Augusta, Georgia. It was the Panic of 1907 that really we began to see widespread stock exchanges issuing money that began because if there was a shortage of cash, you could not conduct any business whatsoever since it was impossible to pay.

Here is the Chicago Clearing House which issued private money during the Great Depression in 1933. We find various stock exchanges issuing private currency in times when there was a shortage of money because people were hoarding their cash in times of uncertainty.

This was the very first Depression Scrip I ever saw and immediately purchased it. This opened the door in economics for me to understand how things function during a great crash. What took place during the Great Depression was that there was such a shortage of cash, over 200 cities began to issue their own currencies just to enable transactions to take place. Businesses could not hire people because there was no available cash to pay them

There are catalogs available in German concerning the NotGeld, private issues of currency, during the Hyperinflation of the 1920s. Once again, it does not matter what nation or culture. The same human response will unfold every time.

As the United States breaks up, as is the case in Europe, we will see currencies appears on a regional basis. This is how it will always work. I spent more than two decades investigating these trends and collecting scrip from all financial crises going back to ancient times. Without access to these examples, there is just no economic historical account that has ever tied all of this together. I had to explore this all on my own.

Feb 15 2023

The Real Debt Crisis is Here


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Feb 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Ever since the debacle in London with the long-term debt, there have been whispers in NYC about how the demand for long-term is drying up. When this becomes critical, is that when the whole thing comes crashing down?

KW

ANSWER: That was the real gist of Yellen’s speech back in October of 2022. Of course, the US press will never elaborate on this problem until it smacks them in the face. Yellen publicly admitted that the Treasury asked the primary dealers of US government debt for their views on the merits and limitations of a buyback program. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, made up of market participants, highly recommended considering the move because the demand for long-term was declining.

Yellen herself publicly acknowledged the decline in trading volume in 20-year bonds, which they reintroduced in 2020 thanks to COVID. Quoting from her direct comments:

“The 20-year Treasury is an area, an issue where there’s been less liquidity — but we haven”t made any decisions about it.” 

Even the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association came out and publicly also stated last October that there had been episodes of illiquidity. This was the same problem that created the Crisis in the Long-term British gilt market.

Institutions do not want to buy the long-term in the face of (1) rising interest rates to fight inflation, and (2) unlimited handing of money to Ukraine that will NEVER come back for Ukraine is a black hole and reliable sources are deeply concerned that Ukraine will lose and exist no more.

The escalation in debt on the horizon with World War III is beyond the capacity of the Primary Dealers to buy.  They are strained now with the debt expansion for socialism, then Ukraine, and add War, this system is cracking NOW! The Primary Dealers cannot buy more debt than their balance sheets allow. The “whispers” running around have been on the street. The press has not articulated this for (1) it’s above their pay grade to comprehend, and (2) they cannot dare report the truth.

Feb 15 2023

Senator John Kennedy Provides Additional Information After Classified Briefing on U.S. Military Engagement With “Unidentified Flying Objects” – Recommends We Lock Our Doors Tonight


Posted originally on the CTH on February 14, 2023 | Sundance 

Louisiana Senator John Kennedy attended a classified briefing today on the topic of the unidentified sky objects that Joe Biden administration officials have been shooting down with fighter jets and missiles.  At the conclusion of the briefing, Senator Kennedy came to the microphones to answer questions.

Unfortunately, Senator Kennedy says the briefing did not explain what the objects are or why the administration is shooting them down.  Additionally, the government has not found the three mysterious flying objects that were shot down in Alaska, Canada’s Yukon territory and above Lake Huron.  Kennedy says if you are confused, you are holding an accurate assessment of the situation.

During the briefing the intelligence officials noted, they do not know what the objects are, they do not know what they are used for, they do not know where they come from, and they cannot find them after they have been destroyed.  The obvious questions continue to mount.

The only clear information that Kennedy states was provided to the people briefed, was that these mysterious unidentified objects have been in/around our airspace since approximately 2017, according to the Biden officials.  At the conclusion of his remarks and Q&A session, a curiously puzzled Senator Kennedy advised everyone, “to lock their doors tonight.” WATCH:

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Feb 15 2023

Consumer Price Index Increases 0.5 in January, 6.4% Annual Inflation Rate


Posted originally on the CTH on February 14, 2023 | Sundance 

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics released the January consumer price index today [DATA HERE] reflecting what you already know.  The overall inflation rate stands at 6.4%, after the anniversaries of the first two waves of price increases have now tolled.

Inflation is the measure of price increases over time.  Following two years of massive jumps in price, we are now cycling through and comparing current prices to the previous period when prices had already skyrocketed.

This gives a false impression of price moderation (hindsight inflation); however, the price of goods and services is significantly higher, and those prices will not drop. The higher prices are now embedded in the economy.

After a brief respite, a plateau, in energy price increases over Nov (0.5%) and December (0.4%), the January energy prices began climbing again (0.6%).  This is what we have all noticed in the past three months.

Additionally, “shelter” costs, rent and housing, continue to increase in price (0.8%, January). Overall shelter costs now +7.9% for the 12 months preceding January, 2023, with rents up 8.6% for the period [Table-1].

We have also cycled through the anniversary of the first two waves of massive food price increases, ending January 2022.  Despite that cycle, food prices still show an increase of 10.1% for the preceding 12 months. Cereals +15.6%, dairy +14.0%.  These food price increases are on top of similar jumps in the period that preceded January ’22.  Most of these volatile food price increases are attributable to the overall scale of energy and transportation costs.  These prices will never reverse.

The issue is compounded because the inflation rate is still far exceeding the rate of wage growth.  This means workers and working families are going backwards and spending more than they earn for the exact same housing, food and energy products they were purchasing a year ago.

This wage squeeze means little to no disposable income, which then applies to the rest of the household checkbook economics.  With less disposable income, fewer non-essential products and/or services are purchased by working families.  This situation creates the snowball effect of lessened overall economic activity.

(Via CNBC) – […] Rising shelter costs accounted for about half the monthly increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in the report. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago. The CPI had risen 0.1% in December.

Energy also was a significant contributor, up 2% and 8.7%, respectively, while food costs rose 0.5% and 10.1%, respectively.

Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. Average hourly earnings fell 0.2% for the month and were down 1.8% from a year ago, according to a separate BLS report that adjusts wages for inflation.

While price increases had been abating in recent months, January’s data shows inflation is still a force in a U.S. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year. (read more)

According to the wage report: “from January 2022 to January 2023. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 1.5-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.”  Workers are working longer hours, making slightly more pay, but the rate of inflation means their actual “real wages” are still dropping.

The way to break out of this cycle is to first unleash the U.S. energy sector and drive down the costs of oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, home heating oil, natural gas and electricity rates.  However, the entrenched nature of the climate change ideology, blocks the professional political class from providing the energy sector relief.  Both Democrats and Republicans want the Joe Biden “green new deal” energy policy.

FUBAR!

Feb 15 2023

Whoo Hoo – The Moment Has Arrived, Mitt Romney in Skirt Launches 2024 Presidential Bid


Posted originally on the CTH on February 14, 2023

We have a deep archived series of articles on Nikki Haley [SEE HERE] specifically because she is the most transparently manipulative and simultaneously predictable, conniving political entity in Republican politics.  Yes, she’s worse than Monkey Pox.

Reminder, Nikki Haley in February 2021: …”“I don’t think [Trump’s] going to be in the picture,” she said, matter-of-factly. “I don’t think he can. He’s fallen so far.” […] “We need to acknowledge he let us down,” she said. “He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”  (link)

Two months later, April 27, 2021, when asked about her 2024 presidential ambitions Nikki Haley says:…”Out of respect I would never do anything to go against [Trump], he knows that. I would have a conversation with him and talk to him about it should we decide we want to pursue it; but, um, no, I have a great respect for him, and I would never consider running against him.” (link)

Yes, the candidate of lightly held stances, an outlook subject to change based on the poll tested winds of the electorate, a person who frames her political bona fides through the prism of her gender in every single conversation, has officially announced she will be seeking the republican nomination. Whoo, hooo.

Recently, the insufferable Liz Cheney even polled with higher support amid Republicans; however, winning the GOP nomination is really not the goal for Nikki Haley here. She is trying to retain her professional finances by extending a career in politics that only coastal Republican donors care about.

Mrs. Haley will be financed by coastal Republican and Wall Street donors who are ultimately attempting to avoid another America First term of economic nationalism – the policy of President Donald Trump.

Following the arc of the Wall Street campaign design, at a particular point later in ’23 or early ’24, Mrs. Haley will drop out of the race and endorse Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.  Haley is betting her political capital on this plan.

Amid Haley’s charter financial backers are familiar billionaire political class names, including hedge fund manager Paul Singer and the control officer for the Club for Growth, David McCormick.

Haley’s major donors also include multinational billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, along with Miriam Adelson and her late husband, casino mogul Sheldon Adelson.

Donor club members also include Pete Ricketts and Scott Bessent, very rich multinational businessmen with a history of influencing republican politics.  Also, there are some very well-known democrats like Vivek and Lakshmi Garipalli, who are charter members of almost every major Democrat candidate – but also gave Haley $1 million.

(POLITICO) – Many of the GOP’s biggest donors are among those who funneled anonymous contributions to former U.N ambassador Nikki Haley’s nonprofit as she lays the groundwork for a prospective 2024 presidential bid, according to previously unreported tax documents obtained by POLITICO.

Haley’s nonprofit policy advocacy group, Stand For America, Inc., has received major donations from people including New York hedge fund manager Paul Singer, investor Stanley Druckenmiller, and Miriam Adelson and her late husband, casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, the Internal Revenue Service filings reveal. (read more)

CTH has been warning about Nikki Haley ever since she asked Sarah Palin to help her win the South Carolina Governor’s race, and then stabbed Palin in the back with the most derisive negative commentary thereafter.  Nikki Haley would never have been governor without Sarah Palin; those who know politics know this is absolutely true…. And Nikki Haley is worse than monkeypox. [Full Archive]

The Bush clan and professional political cocktail circuit was rebuked in 2016, so we can anticipate their strategy in 2024 will be with those strategic lessons at the forefront.

The currently visible outlook reflects the purpose of Mrs. Haley to be the managed lead attack against President Donald Trump, while the DeSantis managers extend the plausible deniability for his entry into the contest as long as possible.

Every political statement from her managers, brand consultants, political strategists, campaign advisors, all the way to her own viewpoint, consistently injects her gender into every statement of intent.  Nikki Haley (2024) uses gender the way Ted Cruz (2016) used religion.

Feb 14 2023

White House Holds UFO Press Briefing – 1:00pm ET Livestream


Posted originally on the CTH on February 13, 2023

There’s a press briefing for 1:00pm today, scheduled to include National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications at the White House, John Kirby, explaining the latest developments in the ongoing U.S. aerial battles with unidentified flying objects.

Normally, I would not find these propaganda sessions with the stenographers too interesting; however, the bizarre stupidity of the entire UFO fiasco has even the most ardent regime stenographers starting to be embarrassed about the narrative engineering they are being tasked to advance.  So, the briefing is at 1:00pm ET.

Fox News Livestream Link – PBS Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream

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Feb 14 2023

White House NSC Spox John Kirby Says Pentagon Has No Idea What Objects They Shot Down and Still No Recovery of any Debris


Posted originally on the CTH on February 13, 2023 | Sundance

The statements by National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications at the White House, John Kirby, could not be more incredulous if he tried. “The truth is that we haven’t been able to gain access to the objects that were shot down Friday, Saturday and yesterday because of the weather conditions. The third one was shot down yesterday over Lake Huron so it’s underwater,” Kirby declared earlier this morning.

According to John Kirby, the pentagon has no idea what objects they have shot out of the sky, no idea what they are used for, no idea where they came from and not a single one of the three this weekend has been recovered.  At this point all of these government officials are beclowning themselves.

Kirby even says these objects could be commercial in nature, belonging to some tech company doing mapping etc and do not have to be ‘nefarious at all’.  Yet if that were the case, the people who launched them would need licenses and would likely be making some form of admission.  This is well beyond silly.

According to Kirby, “there could be totally explainable reasons for why these objects are flying around all there,” he said, adding, “there are corporate entities that operate these kind of things, we just don’t know as soon as we can get to the debris we’ll share what we can. It doesn’t have to be nefarious.“

Pentagon officials held a press conference Sunday night in the middle of the Super Bowl. They failed to answer any questions. General Glen VanHerck was specifically asked if it’s possible the objects are indicative of extraterrestrial life; yes, aliens.   General VanHerk’s response, “I’ll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven’t ruled out anything,” he said.

Goofy.  All of it.

Kirby will deliver another briefing from the White House at 1:00pm ET.

Feb 14 2023

The Collapse of the Monetary System – a Comedy of Errors


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence Re-Posted Feb 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Martin
Could you please describe more in detail what you are expecting when talking about the breakdown of the monetary system?
Will there be differencies between countries like Germany and Switzerland for example? Especially regarding pension systems.
I asume, there might be big differences by countries.
Many thanks and best regards,
RZ

ANSWER: The collapse of the monetary system is the result of a comedy of errors. It boils down to the problem that governments since World War II have adopted Keynesian Economics whereby they took Keynes’ suggestion that they should run a deficit during a recession/depression to compensate for the fall in demand because people are hoarding their cash in times of uncertainty. The problem was that they merged that with Marxism and began to run deficits annually and then took the Quantity Theory of Money that claimed an increase in the money supply would be inflationary. So, they borrowed rather than printed falsely believing that they could spend whatever they wanted without it being inflationary.

However, because debt suddenly became collateral post-1971 when it had been illegal to use government bonds as collateral for borrowing, then the debt was transformed into money that now paid interest as it had begun during the American Civil War.

Thanks to the stupidity of locking down the economy for COVID, the escalation in national debts has been insane. This has added stress to the monetary system for you see, the entire government structure depends on being able to sell its debt. As the demand for their debt is declining when they look at this deliberate push for war and handing Ukraine unlimited amounts of money, the inability to sell the debt has increased their search for taxes – hence hiring 87,000 IRS agents armed!

The system is collapsing. They cannot continue to fund all the social programs under this system where the Primary Dealers are not large enough to continually buy government debt. That impacts everything from Pension to Life Insurance. Absolutely everything from investments to interest rates and taxation is all interconnected so we are looking at the end game of 2032. I believe Schwab has taken our forecast for the collapse of the monetary system and we will have a great reset with our opportunity to redesign government he is trying to take that event and push it to totalitarianism ending even our right to vote on anything. Of there will be a Great Rest, but not the way Schwab hopes it to unfold.

The only option is central banks must monetize the debt which defeats the entire purpose of borrowing that was supposed to be less inflationary, and then they must raise taxes dramatically to attempt to remain in power until they compel the people to rise up in revolution as is always the case. Almost every revolution in history has begun with taxation.

Remember the Biblical story where they show a denarius to Jesus complaining about Roman taxes? That is why this coin of Tiberius is known as the Tribute Penny – “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s and unto God the things that are God’s.” It always comes down to the abuse of power using taxation.

Feb 14 2023

US Tells Americans to Leave Russia ASAP!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Feb 14, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I am an American living in Moscow. We were just told that all Americans should leave Russia ASAP by the US embassy. I think all the governments are now looking at Socrates. Your name is even well known here in Moscow.  Maybe you have more influence than you realize.

anonymous

REPLY: Well, I have been interviewed on Russian TV several times. RT even asked me about our forecast that Ukraine would be the hot spot a year in advance and we predicted that this would be where WWIII would begin. It is the American press that refuses to cover any of our forecasts. Amazon and Netflix refused to show the movie the Forecaster in the United States. You can what it on Amazon only outside the USA. Then, we were selling the DVD on Amazon in the USA since they refused to stream it. Then that listing was “hacked” to shut that down. The only way to get the DVD is now to order it through our site. All of this just shows how desperate it has become in the United States to actually have a free society. I get a lot of requests for interviews outside the United States. Even the Forecaster Movie was funded by German TV. No American firm would dare produce a film that exposed the corruption in our Judicial system!

Look, EVERY intelligence service monitors our forecasts. Everyone knows this is a computer, not my personal opinion. Consequently, they want the cold hard facts and the timing. Are they acting because of our timing models? No. If they were, they would back off because our models also show the US will lose this one.

Historically, when such an advisory is issued, it is because of a conflict that is imminent. Beware in April/May. The Pi Target on Ukraine is April 26th, 2023. We are headed into a period in that only the computer can project timing with an objective attitude.

Feb 14 2023

New York City Sent the Fingerprints of Unvaccinated Employees to FBI for Tracking and Registration


Posted originally on the CTH on February 13, 2023 | Sundance 

In a little covered lawsuit by the group New Yorkers For Religious Liberty, Inc. et al -VS- The City Of New York, something very odd has surfaced.

After imposing the vaccine mandate in 2021, New York City fired the unvaccinated workers then sent the FBI the names and fingerprints of the non-compliant city employees to register within the justice files of the federal government.

New York City has recently abandoned the vaccine requirement {SEE HERE}, but the lawyers for the plaintiffs are continuing the lawsuit against the city because employment in the private sector is now impacted because the names of the unvaccinated are flagged in justice files within state and federal criminal justice records.

Pre-employment background checks now “flag with problem codes,” tagging the applicant as a potential criminal risk simply for being unvaccinated.

The stunning revelation about the FBI holding fingerprint files of the unvaccinated surfaced in court arguments from this lawsuit.   It seems like something out of a dystopian novel, but the reality is very serious.  I have not found any media reporting on the issue; however, CTH will highlight the raw source information so you can see for yourself.

The oral arguments can be found HERE.  Forward the audio to around the 05:00 minute mark and listen as the lawyers explain what has been discovered.  At the 5:30 moment, lawyers for the plaintiffs describe the employment files including the fingerprints, being sent to the FBI.  [SOURCE LINK]

It is remarkable to realize the scope of how the various government systems were so committed to the vaccine requirement, they were willing to register the names and fingerprints of unvaccinated Americans for future targeting.  Few things leave me speechless…  This does.