Tag Archives: Fall of the 5th Republic

Oct 10 2022

Dallas Fed: Over Half of Americans Experienced Real Wage Declines This Year


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Oct 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Dallas Federal Reserve found that the decline in real wages is at a severity not seen in 25 years. Simply put, when adjusted for inflation, American’s paychecks are down despite wages going up. The median decline in real wages surpassed 8.5% this September.

"How severe are the losses for workers experiencing negative real wage growth? For the 53.4 percent of such workers in second quarter 2022, the median decline (that is, half of the declines were larger and half smaller) in real wage growth was 8.6 percent."

After examining real wages over the course of 12 months, the Dallas Fed found that 53.4% of all workers experienced real wage declines. Additional taxes under Biden have added to real wage decline as well. Peter C. Earle of the American Institute for Economic Research estimates that someone earning $70,000 annually now has $4,500 less in buying power in New York. “The bill for the Covid mitigation policies is due,” Earle said. “Record levels of fiscal and monetary policy expansion in the first half of 2020 are wrecking the purchasing power of the dollar. Thus even without a pay cut, wage earners are effectively earning less over time.”

The average median decline over the past 25 years has been 6.5% with real wage declines reaching between 5.7% to 6.8%. Inflation is simply too severe to compensate for any additional wages. The Fed continued to say:

"Despite the stronger wage growth due to the tightness of the labor market, a majority of workers are finding their wages falling even further behind inflation. For workers who experienced a decline in their real wage in second quarter 2022, the median decline was 8.6 percent.

While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face."
Sep 27 2022

Confused Biden Conflates Wage Growth with Inflation, Claims Inflation is Having Less Money in Your Paycheck


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 26, 2022 | sundance 

Many people believe the people who are in charge of the economic policies destroying the middle-class have no idea how the Main Street economy actually works.  I disagree, I believe they know exactly what they are doing and why they are doing it.

From one perspective, inflation is a statistic that comes from a bureaucratic system quantifying prices.  They have no concept of how policy-driven price increases hurt consumers or working-class families.  Everything in their sphere is academic and esoteric.

However, that said, those who have designed policy know there are benefits to inflation, like lowering economic activity that supports their lowered energy production policies. Inflation also helps them pay their way out of the spending they create that drives the inflation. Make money worth less and debt is lessened, or so the theory is told.

Joe Biden made remarks today that “inflation” as he looks at it, is defined as the amount of money in a paycheck.  WATCH:

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Economic Policy Experts

Sep 25 2022

The Flight to Mexico


Armstrong Economics Blog/Mexico Re-Posted Sep 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good afternoon Mr. Armstrong.
I have been a basic member for 6 years.
Since then I have been following your USD prediction and it is on spot despite everyone saying the contrary.
However, after seeing the EURO, Pound, Yen, and other currencies waterfall, why has the Mexican peso kept its value? I can’t find the logic.
Could you please explain?
Thanks for ALL you do.
BP

ANSWER: This is the Array from 2020. That was the ideal of the high for the dollar and that coincided with the end of the Trump Administration. The Biden Administration has been at war with fossil fuels from the beginning, despite trying to blame Putin.

This has benefited Mexico from a value perspective, but while claiming to be on board with this Great Reset, they are not as gun-ho as Canada and the USA. Even polls at the start of 2022 in the USA were telling. Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey concluded that 45% of American voters believed the highest priority for businesses was to provide individual consumers with high-quality products and services at the lowest prices. Only 9% of voters classified climate change as the top priority for business, and only 1% said that business resources should pursue social justice as a top priority. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Our capital flow model has been pointing to tremendous inflows to Mexico since they have had the best anti-COVID mandates so there are a lot of Europeans leaving for South and Latin America and Mexico has been a primary target.

This trend appears to be continuing into 2024. As war rises in Europe and the leaders seem intent upon sacrificing their people on the altar of climate change, COVID, and Ukraine, the flight of people and capital will continue. For those who refused to get vaccines, Mexico has been the safe haven for the world.

  • There are no COVID-19 test requirements in Mexico.
  • COVID vaccination passports or certificates are not mandatory to enter Mexico.
  • There are no quarantine requirements in Mexico

Sep 24 2022

Mulvaney, Goolsbee and Santelli Finally Discuss Supply Side Energy Driven Inflation and the Disconnect of The Political Federal Reserve


Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on September 23, 2022 | Sundance

Mulvaney, Goolsbee and Santelli Finally Discuss Supply Side Energy Driven Inflation and the Disconnect of The Political Federal Reserve

September 23, 2022 | Sundance | 51 Comments

Finally, a finance and economic discussion that touches on the critical component to inflation that no one dare say, or else they suffer political backlash.  Although Mick Mulvaney, Austin Goolsbee and to a lesser extent, Rick Santelli, had to maintain the acceptable ‘pretending’ approach, parsing words carefully, at least this is one of the first times where the supply side (energy driven) issue of global inflation was discussed.

As the group collectively admitted there is no other option other than a “hard landing” that collapses the economy from the current Fed approach; additionally, Rick Santelli, blasts the relationship between the political central banks and the global leaders who have pressured this dynamic.  WATCH:

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Still pretending, but lessened a little.  Hey, progress.