Tag Archives: IMF Inflation

Mar 23 2023

The Fed Does Not Back Down


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, it’s refreshing to have Socrates that is totally unbiased. It projected continued rising rates into next year and the Fed just proved its point. It is not backing down.

Thank you. Socrates is very enlightening.

GS

ANSWER: I know there were a lot of talks that surely the Fed had to lower rates and start QE all over again. Most of those sorts of comments have no real experience in markets. They just mouth a lot of hot air. Perhaps instead of putting masks on cows, we should do that on the shills. The Federal Reserve had no choice but to raise interest rates although it was just by a quarter point. Not to do so and the Fed would lose all credibility and the market would then not take them seriously.

You MUST understand that this crisis has unfolded because too many banks were wrapped up in WOKE culture and hired people who were UNQUALIFIED to run risk management. Some were more excited about cross-dressing as a woman and winning the Rainbow award in banking than actually protecting the bank from the risk of rising interest rates.

In a statement released at the conclusion of the meeting, Fed officials acknowledged that recent financial market turmoil is weighing on inflation and the economy, though they expressed confidence in the overall system. “The US banking system is sound and resilient.” They had no choice but to make this statement.

“Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain.”

The Fed is saying that their rise in rates will in fact reduce inflation and economic activity. The banks have this yield curve risk and that is different from the 2007-2009 crisis where the debt was based on fraud. Here, the debt is US Treasuries so they are not going bankrupt from that aspect, but it is a liquidity crisis.

If these people who scream loudly but know nothing really about finance keep up the nonsense, they will only add to the uncertainly. This inflation is accelerating thanks to the war.

Mar 23 2023

Returning to Neocon Roots – DeSantis Backtracks on His Tucker Carlson Ukraine Position as Territorial Dispute, Now Says “I think it’s been mischaracterized,” and “Putin is a war criminal”


Posted originally on the CTH on March 22, 2023 | Sundance

After attempting to navigate through the politics in order to curry favor with the base Republican voters on a Ukraine position, when confronted by Piers Morgan who is a pro-NATO war voice, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis now says his former position on Ukraine has been “mischaracterized” and Vladimir Putin “is a war criminal.”

The walk back highlights once again that Ron DeSantis is an empty vessel using poll testing to formulate his policy stances.

The reversing comments on Vladimir Putin and Ukraine come from the interview DeSantis gave to Piers Morgan as noted in a recent New York Post article:

(Piers Morgan, NY Post) – Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis has branded Vladimir Putin a “war criminal” and demanded he be “held accountable” for his barbaric invasion of Ukraine.

Taking a tougher tone from his statement last week appearing to dismiss the year-long war as a “territorial dispute,” DeSantis now says Russia was WRONG to invade Ukraine and was WRONG to invade and take over Crimea in 2014, and won’t win the war. And he’s made his strongest attack yet on Russia’s dictator, calling him a loser who is “basically a gas station with a bunch of nuclear weapons.”

His assertion, in a statement to Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson, that it is not in America’s “vital national interests” to become “further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia” was strongly criticized by numerous senior Republicans — including Sen. Lindsey Graham and Sen. Marco Rubio.

When I asked him specifically if he regretted using the phrase “territorial dispute,” DeSantis replied, “Well, I think it’s been mischaracterized. Obviously, Russia invaded (last year) — that was wrong. They invaded Crimea and took that in 2014 — That was wrong.

[…] “There is a move now to hold [Vladimir Putin] accountable for war crimes,” I told DeSantis, “bombing maternity hospitals and genocidal activity in parts of Ukraine wiping out whole cities like Mariupol. Would you support that?”

“I think he is a war criminal,” he replied. “This ICC … we have not done that in the US because we’re concerned about our soldiers or people being brought under it. So, I don’t know about that route, but I do think that he should be held accountable.” DeSantis is convinced Ukraine will eventually prevail in the war. (read more)

The DeSantis team has also hired the notorious dirtbag, Jeff Roe.

You might remember Roe as the former 2016 campaign manager for Ted Cruz who falsely told the people of Iowa, on the night before the primary caucus, that Dr. Ben Carson dropped out of the race.  The Cruz Crew amplified this false message, and duped Carson caucus supporters who subsequently switched candidates on election day to support Ted Cruz.  Jeff Roe created the lie, then tried to deny it.

(Via Politico) – […] Jeff Roe, who previously ran Sen. Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential campaign, has signed on to be an adviser to the super PAC, Never Back Down, according to an operative with direct knowledge of the move.

Never Back Down is being spearheaded by executive director Chris Jankowski, another seasoned Republican operative. Ken Cuccinelli, a former top Homeland Security official to Donald Trump, is serving as chair of the super PAC. Over the last several weeks, Cuccinelli has visited four key early GOP primary states. (read more)

A DeSantis political group that would hire Jeff Roe highlights, yet again, how the DeSantis 2024 campaign is a mirror of Ted Cruz campaign in 2016.

Factually, almost all of the 2016 never-Trump Cruz Crew are now members of the 2024 never-Trump Desantis Crew.  To assist this overall ‘never-Trump’ endeavor, in 2024 Vivek Ramaswamy is now playing the former role of Evan McMullin in 2016.

The professional political class of the GOPe, the DeceptiCons, are never as vicious against Democrats as they are against candidates who do not conform to the Republican UniParty orthodoxy.   If you want to see the Republicans fight dirty, just become a Republican political candidate that does not comply with them.  Then, and only then, will you see a side of the Republican wing that doesn’t surface against Democrats.

Threaten their GOPe Wall Street multinational corporate interests, ie. ‘their money‘, and the DeceptiCons get vicious.

If the professional Republicans are NOT targeting a Republican politician, you can be assured that Republican politician is a member of the GOPe club operation.

Yes, it really is that simple, and Ron DeSantis is a member of that club.

Mar 23 2023

President Putin Together with Chairman Xi, Warn NATO About U.K. Plan to Send Depleted Uranium Rounds to Ukraine


Posted originally on the CTH on March 22, 2023 | Sundance

The alarming provocations and escalations continue as the U.K. has pledged to send depleted uranium anti-tank rounds into Ukraine.

During a four-hour public meeting which included international press, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted the NATO intent to use depleted uranium artillery and tank missiles against Russian forces would be met with countermeasures.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu noted the British decision leaves fewer and fewer steps before a potential “nuclear collision” between Russia and the West.  “Another step has been taken, and there are fewer and fewer left,” he told reporters in remarks cited by domestic agencies.

(Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday condemned British plans to send tank ammunition that contains depleted uranium to Ukraine, saying Moscow would be forced to respond accordingly.

Speaking in London on Monday, Minister of State for Defence Annabel Goldie said some of the ammunition for the Challenger 2 battle tanks that Britain is sending to Ukraine includes armour piercing rounds which contain depleted uranium.

“If all this happens, Russian will have to respond accordingly, given that the West collectively is already beginning to use weapons with a nuclear component,” Putin said in remarks after a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He did not elaborate. (read more)

Keep in mind, all remarks by the heads of state during these sessions are known in advance by both nations.  Chairman Xi knew what Vladimir Putin was going to say. Additionally, at the end of their three-day summit, Chairman Xi made comments that were strategically positioned publicly to be overheard by international media.

Chairman Xi is cunning panda and is very well skilled at making statements in front of media that drive his own interests.  These comments are always strategically placed by Chairman Xi and his people who plan every possible angle in advancing their agenda.

These end of summit remarks were specifically made by Xi, knowing they would be picked up on microphones by media, interpreted and then broadcast.

[…] “change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years, and we are driving this change together”.

I said it yesterday, and I will repeat it again:

All of these tremors point to a larger issue in the background of “western government” policy.   Something is going to eventually erupt.  Government cannot keep a lid on the chaos they create forever.  Sooner or later a spark will ignite something… and it will not just be in France.

Do not focus too heavily on the weeds of any particular issue or nation lest we lose sight of the much larger dynamic.  One thing is most certainly assured; Chairman Xi and President Putin can see that larger dynamic clearly, and there’s abundant opportunity within the geopolitical unrest.

Mar 22 2023

The Banking & Debt Crisis Continues


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The banking crisis continues and it is impacting funds that have been buying bonds. Allianz, a subsidiary of Pimco, is writing off countless millions with Credit Suisse bonds. The banking crisis has been the result of artificially low-interest rates for far too long and banks were used to free money and buy long-term bonds all because they were making their money on the spread. Now that rates are rising, their risk management was effectively nonexistent, and thus the losses and widespread.

The Allianz subsidiary Pimco is one of the largest asset managers in the world. They have to now write off a loss in Credit Suisse bonds and it’s ain’t over yet as we head into April 10th.

Mar 22 2023

White House Neocon Spokesman Admits – They Do Not Want Peace in Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Mar 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

I have had two employees from Ukraine – Kiev and Donetsk. The one from Kiev just mouths the standard Ukrainian propaganda. If they give up the Donbas, they will then want all of Ukraine. The UK is deeply involved walking hand and hand with Biden into world war III. They have clearly crossed the Rubicon here and for no justification. Had they simply honored the Minsk Agreement and let the Donbas, which is ethnically Russian, separate from a regime that hates their guts the war would be over in 5 minutes.

Instead, Britain appears to have been planning to give Ukraine nuclear weapons with depleted Uranium. Putin has come out and warned the UK that “the delivery and use of depleted uranium missiles by the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be perceived as an attack against Russia with a weapon that has a ‘nuclear component’.” Putin elaborated:

“Today it became known that the United Kingdom, through the Deputy Head of the Ministry of Defense of the country, announced the supply of not only tanks to Ukraine but also shells with depleted uranium. It seems that the West really decided to fight Russia in the last Ukrainian not with words, but with deeds Russia will be forced to react once the collective West starts using weapons with a nuclear component.”

There are some who believe that Ukraine should just be nuked. Give the people 2 weeks to flee to Poland or Germany, and then nuke the region and make it unlivable. That is basically the legion that Rome certainly razed the city entirely, but there are no contemporary sources stating that the Romans salted the land to prevent the city of Carthage from rising a fourth time. The Greek writer from the 1st century BC, Diodorus Siculus, informs us that the city had been razed and Carthaginians destroyed. Horace informs us that after the city was destroyed, the land was symbolically plowed. Polybius in his “The Histories” makes no mention of the land being salted just that the city was completely destroyed. Appian of Alexandria does record that Carthage was reconstructed by the first Emperor Augustus (27BC-14AD) and to avoid the evil spells that were cast on the ground, Carthage was rebuilt in a different location.

Surely, if Russia nuked Ukraine that would kill the European breadbasket and it would guarantee Ukraine’s neutrality. Is that the only way to terminate this Neocon Proxy Way and save the world?

The three Punic Wars (264 BC–146 BC) between Rome and Carthage were a turning point in the history of the Mediterranean world and, more than any other conflict, the Second Punic War (218 BC–201 BC) appears to have been a defining time in Roman history. We also see the debasement in that coinage of Carthage as they waged war to defeat Rome. You can see the early silver coinage debased as the war unfolded.

As Hannibal marched through Spain and invaded Italy from the North, Rome issued its first gold coinage more as a symbol of wealth to the other Italian city-states that they should standby Rome and not join Hannibal.

On the Roman side, we also see the consequence of the war with the debasement of the silver quadrigatus, which was the Greek denomination of the didrachm they complied with for trade with the Greek world. Here too, we can see the cost of war is not just the lives lost, but also the inflation and the monetary debasement.

Hannibal’s war also forced Rome to establish the denarius, which was the weight reduction from the Greek standard of the Didrachm 6.5 grams to 4.0 grams in 211BC. Even though Rome won,  the lesson here is that sometimes wars result in the complete collapse of a monetary standard and the rebirth of a new currency. This is what we face. The Neocons care nothing about the economics, nor about the lives of the people they send to die for their arrogance. They are the worst of humanity and should be driven from governments on a global scale.

Indeed, King Louis XIV (1643-1715) was on his deathbed when he lamented.

“I have been too fond of war.”

Meanwhile, the arrogance of the Neocons trying to dictate to the world and ordering China not to help Russia, Xi’s trip to Russia had no other outcome but to support Russia as he called Putin a ‘dear friend’ as China now pushes back against U.S. power knowing full well the real agenda here is to weaken Russia and then for NATO to invade on any pretense to destroy Russia once and for all. This is the Neocon’s dream and they could care less about the Ukrainian people. I have warned that the Ukrainian people are there to be slaughtered for the glory of the Neocons.

Mar 22 2023

French Worker Protests Having Impact


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 21, 2023 

Garbage is piling up on the streets, ports are blocked, fuel is running in short supply, transportation of essential goods and services have been brought to a standstill; these are the outcomes of a general labor strike that has been happening in France as a result of protests to Emmanuel Macron’s unilateral pension reforms.

It might seem like a small issue pushing the retirement age back two years for French citizens, but it’s not really about the pension reform – the bigger issue is about this “new democracy” in the aftermath of new powers assumed by the French president during COVID-19.

President Macron used a special constitutional article to push legislation through Parliament last week without a vote.  He now faces two efforts to engage a no confidence vote with only tepid support from his totalitarian allies in government.  The people of France are not only unhappy with the pension reform outcome, but they are also furious about the nondemocratic process – a familiar and growing sentiment that extends far beyond the borders of France.

While the protests did carry the customary French socialist-leaning violence, the issues underpinning the anger are felt by more than just the radicals.  The larger network of ordinary French workers has now begun using the power of the people to shut down the economics of society.

Trash is piling up in the streets as sanitation workers refuse to work {LINK}.  Ports and critical energy infrastructure like refineries are also shut down, and things are starting to get sketchy amid the social and economic fabric that generally goes unnoticed.  Indeed, you might say, ‘the peasants are revolting‘.

(Reuters) – Several French refinery sites were still blocked from delivering products after two weeks of strikes in France, causing production to be disrupted while the government requisitions workers at the Fos refinery, and power supply was also disrupted.

The industrial action is part of a nationwide movement against pension system changes that lift the retirement age two years to 64. The changes were forced through parliament without a vote last week.

The Normandy refinery operated by oil major TotalEnergies’ will be shut down on Tuesday due to the strike, a company spokesperson said, as the industrial action against the pension changes stretched into its 14th day.

Production disruptions at the other sites operated by TotalEnergies remained unchanged, the spokesperson added. About 36% of operational staff at TotalEnergies’ refineries and depots were on strike on Tuesday morning, the spokesperson said. (read more)

All of these tremors point to a larger issue in the background of “western government” policy.   Something is going to eventually erupt.  Government cannot keep a lid on the chaos they create forever.  Sooner or later a spark will ignite something… and it will not just be in France.

Do not focus too heavily on the weeds of any particular issue or nation lest we lose sight of the much larger dynamic.  One thing is most certainly assured; Chairman Xi and President Putin can see that larger dynamic clearly, and there’s abundant opportunity within the geopolitical unrest.

Western governments are being led by blinded ideologues working furiously in the background….

Mar 21 2023

BITCOIN – The Reality Check


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Mar 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for the education. When you explained that Bitcoin was not some hedge against central banks or an exception to everything out there but was just another trading vehicle, you saved my life for sure my wife would have killed me during the crash. The November turning point proved correct. Now we head into some very interesting times with Directional Changes ahead. The bounce now is the same pattern you see in gold. It is just a trading vehicle and not a store of wealth. Thank you for that reality check.

Sam

REPLY: Yes, spousal abuse can be a major deterrent. Merrill Lynch paid me to teach a client how to trade who had created the biggest one-day loss perhaps in trading history and wrote a check and kept trading. I got him to pay more attention, but when he was winning, he was too busy to watch. He seemed to love to lose money for that got him all geared up. It was his wife that made him stop trading.

Look, Bitcoin is NOT some store of wealth. You will lose your shirt, pants, and spouse if you buy into that. It is a trading vehicle – nothing more. Just follow Socrates. That gives at least an unbiased viewpoint. What goes up, comes down and what goes down eventually goes up. That is just the law of the market.

Mar 21 2023

Chairman Xi and President Putin Meet in Russia, Four Hours of First Day Discussions


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 20, 2023 | Sundance

Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in person today for the first time since the Ukraine conflict began last February.   The public side of the conversation appeared to be very warm as the two allies outlined the nature of their relationship and the plans for their discussions.

It is being reported the private side of the discussions lasted for four hours on the first day with more talks scheduled for tomorrow. “I am pleased to once again set foot on the soil of our friendly neighbor Russia,” Xi said in a statement after arriving in Moscow on Monday for the three-day state visit.

(Via Daily Mail) – Xi Jinping said he was ready to ‘stand guard over a world order based on international law’ as he met Vladimir Putin in Moscow today.

In his first state visit to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese leader spent more than four hours in talks with his ‘dear friend’ Putin, discussing proposals to end the war previously outlined in a 12-point peace plan.

‘We are always open to negotiations,’ the Russian leader said, welcoming China’s plan to settle his ‘acute crisis’ in Ukraine.

Xi meanwhile hailed his ‘close ties’ with Russia as Putin said the two countries had ‘plenty of common objectives and tasks’.

Presented as a ‘journey of friendship, cooperation and peace’, the summit marks the deepening of ties between China and an increasingly isolated Russia, who have relied on Beijing to soften the impact of western sanctions by buying Russian energy and commodities. (read more)