Hoards -Even Gold


Armstrong Economics Blog/Hoards Re-Posted Mar 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

In times of economic distress, people will hoard their wealth. This is as true in ancient times as it is in modern times. I was called in about a hoard of gold – one thousand $20 St Gaudians gold coins all dated 1924 – uncirculated. As you see, I have a reputation for buying hoards as well as funding major archaeological digs. This was a hoard of US$20 gold coins. So I took the lot. As for those who say I hate gold, no, I have always loved the $20 st Gaudens.

Obviously, this was a stash. It was the year of a Presidential election and in 1925, Calvin Coolidge was the first President to have his inauguration broadcasted on radio. In 1921 the Chinese Communist movement began and in 1924 Stalin came to power after poisoning Lenin and his wife. The flight from Russia began in 1917, but it escalated by 1919. It is hard to say why this hoard was stashed away. But they are all dated 1924 and may have been connected to the upheaval in Russia. By the end of 1919, it was clear to almost everyone that the Bolsheviks had won the Civil War. The White armies were defeated on all fronts: Siberia, the Russian North, and Petrograd (as St Petersburg was then called).  Pravda on Aug. 31, 1918:

“Our cities must be mercilessly cleansed of the bourgeois rot. All these gentlemen will be put on file, and those who pose a danger to the revolutionary class will be destroyed … Henceforth, the hymn of the working class will be a song of hatred and revenge! ”

It was the White Russians who fled. It was estimated that at least 2 million fled Russia at the time. That was about 2%-3% of the surviving population by 1919. Given the date of this hoard and the condition, they were tucked away and never saw circulation. They may have been related to the turmoil in Russia.

A number of people have asked if I could put together sets of the 12 Caesars because I had mentioned I thought that could be done for half the price of the set being offered elsewhere. I am trying to get a small hoard of Caligula denarii. They are very difficult to find. I believe because he was so hated,  they may have just melted down his coinage.

It all depends on quality. I have purchased a small hoard of Julius Caesar coinage. I will try to see If I get these Caligula denarii. If I do, I will try to see if I can put together some sets with much more realistic prices.

I have purchased a hoard of late Constantine bronze. They are very reasonable.

I have purchased an early hoard of Gallic coinage of Postumus which is silver. I also have purchased a hoard of Victorinus which are bronze. This is the period of both the split in the Roman Empire as well as the collapse of the monetary system.

Others have asked if I can put together a progression of the coinage showing the debasement. I will try. Here is a photo showing the stark difference between the beginning of the region of Gallienus (253-268AD) and its end.

The Credit Suisse Latest Scandal


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Mar 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Credit Suisse has gone from one crisis to the next. Last month alone, the bank reported that customers have withdrawn $120 billion. A rogue employee stole the names of people with $50 million or more and probably gave that to tax authorities for a bribe – the second time this has taken place in Switzerland.

The Swiss bank is telling some top clients with $50 million or more in the bank that sensitive personal information including social security identification, employment information, and contact details has been compromised. The leaked information came from a whistle-blower, for money, who shared his findings with the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, according to a press release. Credit Suisse wrote that a rogue employee has taken individuals’ data, “an individual employee, who has since left the firm and had legitimate access to your personal data at the time for their daily work, inappropriately copied this information without Credit Suisse’s authorization onto their personal device.”

The bank told clients that it would enroll them in an identity theft protection service, Identity Works, but wouldn’t pay for other fees, some as low as $20, associated with protecting their identity as a result of the theft, sources add. While Credit Suisse said clients can file a report with the Federal Trade Commission or a state Attorney General, the bank won’t cover any of those filing costs either.

While the major support lies at the 2.37 followed by extreme long-term support at the 1.60 level, it still appears that we should see a temporary low form here in 2023. We would need to rally and close above the 3.60 level for year-end to imply a 2023 low would hold.

Why Most Americans Cannot Afford a Home – A Price Breakdown


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Mar 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Are you too poor for the basic human necessity of shelter in Biden’s America? The average home price in Q4 of 2022 was $535,800, according to the St. Louis Fed.  If you live in a highly desirable area, expect to pay more. To simplify the math, let’s say that you are looking to purchase a $500,000 property. To heighten the fantasy, let us also pretend you are one of the rare Americans with zero monthly debt. This means that you do not have student loans, car payments, childcare expenses, medical bills, credit card debt, or any major outstanding bill. Fewer than 25% of American households are debt free and this number is rapidly dwindling.

Ok, so you decide to put 5% down on the house or $25,000 for a loan of $475,000. You manage to lock in a 6.7% interest rate for a 30-year mortgage under a conventional loan. Nationwide averages in real estate drastically undercut true averages due to the outliers, but the average annual property tax in America is around $3,000. I personally have not seen a property tax this low between FL or NJ, but I’ll attempt some optimism. After all, this should be a simple price breakdown that does not lead to a mental one.

We will average the PMI payment of 0.5% at $197.92 for 125 months. We will also incorporate the low home insurance average estimate of $1,000 annually. To be most forgiving in my calculations, I will also assume that your monthly HOA fee is $0. This is utterly impossible for anyone seeking to purchase a condo. In my area, the average HOA fee is $600 per month, and a $500,000 property will not afford you a single-family house. At best, you’d be lucky to find a two-bedroom property at that price point in my area. In contrast, home prices here were about 40% to 60% lower in 2019.

Therefore, the overall total monthly payment for a $500K home is $3,596.32. This home can be yours by 2053 if you close this year. Forget “starter homes” as once you are locked into a good rate, you will likely not leave. So how much income do you need to afford this monthly payment? The MAXIMUM debt that the bank will allow you to qualify for is around 50% of your total gross income if you have good credit. If you choose this method, you will be “house poor” and unable to afford other basic human needs. So based on these calculations, you would need to make at least $7,192.64 GROSS per month to afford this property and live “house poor.” This would equate to a salary of $86,311.68 per year BEFORE TAXES.

I did not factor in closing costs, inspections, maintenance, moving, or even furniture. So should you continue renting while establishing zero equity? The median rental price in America as of February 2023 was $1,978. Inventory is low, and landlords are compensating for the money lost during COVID moratoriums. Most leasing offices require tenants to earn 3X the monthly rental price, equating to a monthly gross income of $5,934. This has left countless Americans stuck on the rental carousel of paying the majority of their monthly income to the landlord and being unable to save for a future that includes home ownership. Landlords can raise rental costs yearly at whim, and there is no guarantee that you will comfortably be situated in your rental unit from one contract to the next. Rental properties have also begun charging fees for everything under the sun, such as repairs and parking, which was one of the reasons people chose this method.

Gone are the days when Americans comfortably paid ¼ of their monthly salary toward living expenses. We have not even touched on the astronomically cost of other basic living necessities such as food or energy. You must make a decent income if you want to buy a home in 2023. The bank does not care if you are unable to pay because they will simply take your house. Some are lucky enough to secure an interest-free loan from the central bank of mom and dad. Others, the majority of the Great Unwashed, are scraping by—YOU WILL OWN NOTHING AND BE HAPPY!

The Debt Crisis – What Really Falls to Dust?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Mar 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: The sales pitch seems to be that there is this $2 quadrillion in global debt that overhangs everything. Paper assets, therefore, will all implode!  They seem to be saying that everything has risen due to this debt bubble and it was all created with Zero interest rates. Now that they are going up, the debt bubble will burst and everything will decline. The story seems to be that this decades-long Boom Bust cycle was created over and over by the Federal Reserve. 

This seems to be like you have said, they try to reduce everything to a single cause and effect.

What really happens?

PCJ

ANSWER: These people seem to keep preaching the same story but have no historical understanding whatsoever of how the monetary system has ever worked. Their focus on the Federal Reserve shows that they are not looking at the world economy and they do not even comprehend how bad things really are outside the United States.  They do not comprehend what is an interest rate. It is the compensation to a lender for his anticipation of inflation plus a profit. If I think the dollar will decline by 50%, why would I lend you dollars for a year if when you pay me back it buys half of what it did when I lent it to you?

Debt can be a performing asset. I advised many of the Takeover Boys during the 1980s. We would borrow in one currency to buy the asset in another using the computer to distinguish the long-term trends. I would not recommend that to someone just operating on a gut feeling.

We were also advising on real values, which Hollywood distorted and based the movie Wall Street with Michael Douglas and his famous speech on greed. What they did not really understand was that after a Public Wave that peaked in 1981, stocks were suppressed and the full-faith in government created the broadly supported bond market.  Hence – bonds were conservative and stocks were risky. There were two aspects that were behind the entire Takeover Boom.

First, I was showing these charts and how in terms of book value, the Dow Jones bottomed in 1977. It was obvious that if you could buy a company, sell its assets, and double or triple your money, then the market was obviously not overpriced. We had forecast that the Dow was undervalued and that it would rise from the 1982 low of 769.98 and test the 2500 level in two years in 1985. Indeed, it reached 2695.47 by September 1987. We also projected that by the next decade, the Dow would test 6,000 on its next rally.

Even the press in Japan was shocked. We were also projected that Crude would fall below $10 in 1998. Indeed, that forecast was covered by Mark Pitman at Bloomberg News. It bottomed at $10.65 in 1998. In gold would forecast that it would drop to test $250 by 1999 completing a 19-year cycle low. Then gold would rally to test 1,000. Gold reached the $1,000 level by 2008. The Japanese press thought those forecasts were wild, to say the least.

The SECOND aspect of our advice to the takeover boys of the ’80s was something the press NEVER understood. We would advise borrowing in one currency for an asset in another. We were able to turn debt into a performing asset. We would make 20-40% profit on the currency alone. Often, the press would just look at the debt and not understand what we were even doing.

Most of this reasoning stems from Sir Tomas Gresham’s observations when he represented England at the Amsterdam exchange during the reign of Henry VI’s reign and debasement. As Henry debased the silver coinage as was taking place in Spain, the more they debased the coinage, the higher the inflation took place. His observation that bad money drives out the good has been grossly misunderstood. When I was growing up, they took the silver out of the coinage in 1965.  People were culling out the silver showing that the debased new coinage of 1965 drove out of circulation the old silver coinage. The same thing has taken place with the copper pennings.

Because people hoard old coinage, the money supply shrinks. That then forces the government to issue far more debased coinage to compensate for the coinage that has been withdrawn from hoarding. Consequently, inflation unfolds for all tangible assets to rise in value as expressed in the newly debased coinage.

What these people always try to sell is the same old scenario that they cannot point to a single instance in history where everything collapses to dust but only gold survives. Such periods will typically result in revolution. When Caesar crossed the Rubicon, that was also all bout a debt crisis.

You must also understand that interest rates will be at their LOWEST internationally in the core economy of the Financial Capital of the World – which is the USA right now. The further you move from the center, the higher the interest rate will be. Hence, I have warned that the United States will be the LAST to fall – never the first. This is not based upon my opinion, this is simply historical fact.

We have interest rates back to 3000 BC and have studied the impact of such convulsions in economic history. As for the Debt Crisis that forced Caesar to cross the Rubicon, I suggest you read Anatomy of a Debt Crisis that appears, only Julius Caesar ever understood. 

The Bottom Line is very simple. There is just no such period as people describe where everything turns to dust and only gold survives. Even if that were true, they what good would the gold do if everything else is worth ZERO? Gold would have also ZERO value since nothing would have value.

The real issue is that as government defaults unfold, tangible assets will rise in value for the amount of money in debt always dwarfs that in even the stock market. We are in a Sovereign Debt Crisis and that is very different from a private debt crisis.

Fed Rates Up into 2024?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Mar 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that he sees higher interest rates ahead in his battle against inflation and their unrealistic 2% target. Many traders are now scrambling talking about how Powell said the Fed will probably raise rates more and possibly faster than previously anticipated. They are now taking that as a warning he may do a 50-bp hike this month. Our computer projected a Directional Change in 2022 and everything is on schedule for the rise into 2024.

Powell also restated his warnings to US banks about the risks of getting involved in the crypto industry. He expressed very clearly that lenders must take “great care” when engaging with cryptocurrencies. He added that the central bank didn’t want to prevent innovation, but it is not bullish on this industry and views it more like the DOT.COM Bubble.

Inflationary Gaslighting – Fed Chair Says Interest Rates “likely to be higher than previously expected”…


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 7, 2023 | Sundance 

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers testimony today before the Senate Banking and Finance Committee.  During his statements Powell says, “The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.” Powell continued, “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.“… “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.” …  “Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.”

Everything about the testimony to the Senate, and almost everything within the questioning as presented, ignores the key and central component that inflation is being driven by energy policy.   The scale of the pretending around this issue is jaw dropping.

Western governments, including the U.S. through Joe Biden, have limited and curtailed the production and exploitation of Oil, Coal and Natural Gas.  At the core of the inflation within those same governments, this is the issue at hand.  Energy prices have skyrocketed, driving the cost of everything through the roof.  The central banks are raising interest rates in an attempt to shrink the economy to match the drop in energy production.   This is their monetary policy (interest rates) attempting to support economic policy (Green New Deal / Build Back Better).

There are no lines for consumers in the U.S and Europe of people buying durable goods, electronics or shopping for non-essential items.  Prices on the products within the durable goods economy are not being driven by excess consumer demand.  There are not 25% more people buying lemons and milk than this time last year.  The prices for goods in general, and for essential goods specifically, have risen as an outcome of the input costs around energy skyrocketing.

Everything is impacted by diminished energy production, and losses in infrastructure due to drops in investment, that contribute to the efficiency of energy distribution.  Oil prices have jumped, gasoline prices, diesel prices, natural gas prices and electricity prices have all skyrocketed.

With those raw material production policies, farming costs, fertilizer costs, cooling and heating costs, electricity costs, home heating costs, transportation costs, packaging costs, storage and warehouse costs, refrigeration costs and everything impacted by major energy costs have increased.  This is the main driver of consumer inflation.

When Jerome Powell says they are raising interest rates to “cool the economy,” the raw truth behind the statement is the central banks are trying to reduce the western economies in order to meet the diminished energy production created by policy.   If they can make the economy smaller, less energy is needed….. and this should stem the rising costs from limiting the resource development.

Their problem is that baseline energy demand remains high.  This is keeping energy prices high…. this is keeping inflation high. Their approach to continue raising interest rates, will only work if they achieve an economic outcome similar to the pandemic lockdown period.

Yes, excessive money does create devalued money, which in turn does create inflation.  However, in the current inflationary dynamic it is not excessive money in the hands of working-class people that is driving high demand for goods.  All of the consumer and sales data show that cash carrying consumers are not chasing limited goods.  Consumers and workers are trying to afford essential goods and services that have increased in price as a result of energy policy.

Every economic analysis that does not take this majority factor into consideration is either: (a) making a mistake; (b) being intentionally obtuse and willfully blind; or (c) intentionally not discussing it because the motives of the analyst are to support the climate change agenda.

Once you accept that energy policy is the majority driving influence of current inflation (6.4%), then you can estimate how much economic damage will be needed in order to drop energy demand to a level that matches the diminished energy development, production and investment.

Ship of Fools


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you think that this entire scam with cryptocurrencies that the government will be able to track, do they realize that in war you take down the power grid and all digital currency fails? If the backup system is destroyed, all your digital currency will vanish. Are they this stupid? Is this why they have shills saying you are wrong?

HK

ANSWER: Yes. I have spoken to people involved in creating this insanity. First, they do not think there will ever be a nuclear war. Second, they really do think that they will create regime change in Russia at the expense of probably every Ukrainian alive today who are fools being led to the slaughter. When I have brought up the subject – WHAT IF YOU ARE WRONG! They dismiss it and do not even entertain plan B. The whole digital currency is all about tracking every dime. I have said many times, this is all about the new world order which is Schwab’s Great Rest and he knows that is our 2032 forecast. They all believe that forecast and are preparing to redesign the world this time to achieve their totalitarian dreams.

When I asked – Did you authorize Bitcoin? They just do not reply. Silence is golden. The launch of Bitcoin was just too damn convenient. That was standard operational political tactics – you float a balloon and see how the people accept it.

If you have ever been to Nuremberg, Germany, they have a bronze statue there – the Ship of Fools. The sculpture named Ship of Fools by Jurgen Weber is based on the satirical allegory by Sebastian Brant. This is now a reality.

Markets & War


Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow Re-Posted Feb 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The financial markets had become integrated globally prior to World War I. It was the globalization and openness of world financial markets that became the problem and are important to understand for we will face the same problem today. The capital was free to flow from one country to another before World War I.  All the major countries of the world were on the Gold Standard at that point in time so exchange rates were not as volatile.

We can easily see that the currency market was very stable pre-1914 looking at the French Franc. Keep in mind that this was also a period of fiscal responsibility – pre-Socialism and Marx. Therefore, governments practiced balance budgets to retain confidence in their currencies. That enabled the gold standard to function. Furthermore, any differences in exchange rates were arbitraged. That is how the United States went into crisis in 1896 because the Democrats were inflating the system by overvaluing silver at 16:1 compared to 15:1 in Europe. That resulted in gold fleeing the United States and silver pouring in from international arbitrage.

There was also a viable arbitrage that took place trading the spreads between international bonds listed on the various world stock exchanges. Many countries would issue bonds in British pounds just as they do in dollars today to sell more to the investors in the financial capital of the world, which was London at that point in time.

A country such as China or Russia would issue a bond that was listed on the stock exchanges in London, New York, Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam as well as St. Petersburg in Russia. Here is a Chinese bond issued in British pounds in 1913 paying 5%. The differences in exchange rates, which would still fluctuate marginally, would be arbitraged by buying and selling bonds in different markets.

Consequently, during World War I, there was a global marketplace. In effect, this integration of markets presented a problem when the war hit. Capital could flee from one country to the next and thus the method to deal with the capital flows was to close the stock markets. The United States also closed the market in sympathy with Europe.

We will be taking a closer look at the various global markets. What you can count on is clearly CAPITAL CONTROLS. It would be best for those in Asia and Europe to have some capital tucked away in the United States. Once bullets start shooting, it will most likely be too late to move money.

Keep an eye on our Capital Flow tracking. This may become very critical in the months ahead.

Is the Biden Administration Just Completely Brain-Dead?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Feb 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Russia has deployed tactical nuclear weapons on all its ships. The US arrogantly told China not to support Russia or that they would impose sanctions on China as they have done with Russia. That is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Once you make such a public demand on China, they now MUST  act against it or their leadership will lose face.

I have dealt with governments for some 40 years +. Warnings of this nature have ALWAYS been communicated privately – NEVER publicly for that is confrontational and will necessitate the opposite side to vote against your demand. I cannot imagine that even I know far more about diplomacy than anyone in the Biden Administration. That suggests to me that this is deliberate. They just cannot be this stupid. They seem to be deliberately moving Russia and China together against the arrogant West in the very same manner that resulted in the Peloponnesian War with Sparta taking down Athens for its arrogance.

As the world teeters on the edge of World War III between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran against the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, and Europe,  diplomatic efforts to reach a peaceful settlement are seriously lacking. Europeans should be storming their own parliaments demanding the end to supporting Ukraine and honoring the Minsk Agreement to forestall a potential conflict the likes of which Europe has not seen since the end of the second World War and will certainly not survive.

The Biden Administration appears to be taking the advice of Adolf Hitler given the complete lack of any diplomacy whatsoever. China has offered a peace settlement but the Biden Administration wants war. China had no choice but to respond to Biden:

‘The US is in no position to tell China what to do’

The United Nations has become a joke. The Security Council can take action to maintain or restore international peace and security under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter. Sanctions measures, under Article 41, encompass a broad range of enforcement options that do not involve the use of armed force. The UN has refused to remain unbiased and should have imposed sanctions on Germany, France, the UK, and the United States for their bad faith in negotiating the Minsk Agreement and for their unwarranted sanction of Russia that even began before the 2022 invasion. The UN no longer represents an independent body of nations but has been usurped with lofty ideals of becoming the one world government thanks to Schwab’s World Economic Forum and the pressure from the American Neocons directing US foreign policy.

The United Nations took its marching order from the United States and suspended Russia from the Human Rights Council on April 7th, 2022. They have courted world war with the vision of emerging as the new one-world government. They self-proclaim: “Now, more than 75 years later, the United Nations is still working to maintain international peace and security, give humanitarian assistance to those in need, protect human rights, and uphold international law.” Sanctioning private individuals claiming that will put pressure on Putin was a blatant violation of international war. Under this theory, then the Republicans could confiscate all the personal assets of Democrats until the Democrats agree to their terms. This is absurd.

The United Nations has REFUSED to be impartial and to prevent World War III. They are a total failure and a disgrace to humanity. Here is the simple pattern they should have investigated if they really cared about preserving world peace.

  • (1) In 2014 US installs an interim government in Ukraine which is unelected and immediately sends troops to attack the Donbas for wanting to separate from Ukraine after its own revolution
  • (2) West engages in the Minsk Agreement whereby Merkel has come out and acknowledged it was in bad faith and intended only to allow Ukraine to build its army while making a fool out of Putin for trusting the West
  • (3) Zelensky is elected promising to end corruption and the civil war with Russia
  • (4) VP Kamila Harris at Munich Security Conference tells Ukraine they should join NATO
  • (5) On February 23rd, 2022, Zelensky announces that Ukraine should rearm itself with nuclear weapons

February 24th, 2022, Putin intervenes to support the Donbas when the West ignores their human rights. If the United States even exists after World War III which they are promoting, then we would no doubt have a similar investigation into the deliberate policies that have rejected any possible peaceful negotiations and promoted war for the total destruction of Russia.

When not just diplomacy fails we get war, but when the United Nations acts in its own self-interest against all the member states that fund it and ignores the very foundation upon which it claims any authority. That seems to be in line with the World Health Organization to dictate its policies to the world.

Biden Guarantees Pensions of Ukraine – Not Americans


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; Why would Biden allow the billions he is sending to fill the pensions of government workers in Ukraine?

YD

ANSWER: This video has been going viral. However, this was from the beginning – of April 28th, 2022. The pensions are all the Ukrainian politicians – not the people. This is the kickback for destroying their own country. As long as they are being paid by the United States, they will allow this civil war to continue unabated. This money going to Ukraine is filling the pockets of Ukrainian politicians against their own people.

This was not from Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv. He met with Zelensky as a slap in the face to Putin. During his visit, Biden announced yet another additional half-billion dollars in U.S. assistance — on top of the more than $50 billion already provided — for military equipment and other aid. With this addition, he will be handing Ukraine twice the military budget of Russia. By allowing the money to go into the pockets of Ukrainian politicians, this is not helping the people of Ukraine.

Back in April 2022, Biden gave $1 billion in economic security. “This is money the government can help use to help stabilize their economy, to support communities that have been devastated by the Russian onslaught, and pay the brave workers that continue to provide essential services to the people of Ukraine,” Biden said on April 21.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the economic aid will keep Ukraine’s government running by paying employee salaries and pensions and supporting other social programs. Close to $2 billion was included in the March 2022 aid package to support “either macroeconomic needs in Ukraine, continuity of government efforts such as energy and cyber security, or needs in neighboring countries.”

Biden has been supporting the economy of Ukraine, not just providing aid to the military. Ukraine has been given more economic aid for its economy that any state in the Union.