A number of people have asked if I ever looked at Hyman Minsky’s concepts in forecasting the economy. Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis failed not because of the fact that he attempted to interject cycles and even listened to Schumpeter, the problem was that he was an economist and not a trader. His own attempts to devise a mathematical model of his hypothesis were unsuccessful. The first of Minsky’s two papers in the AER set out a mathematical model of a financially driven trade cycle developed during his Ph.D. from Harvard in 1954 but he never attempted to develop the model further.
There have been many people who have claimed they used his model and were able to forecast the 2007 crash. I know many traders around the world in a professional capacity and I do not know ANYONE who did not see the crash coming. Being able to say this is a bubble and it will end badly was the topic of the movie The Big Short. Being able to see such a bubble is by no means unusual for many who are seasoned. I know of no profession who bought into the whole Bitcoin nonsense of how it would replace the dollar, end central banks, and start a new age all within a matter of months. The professionals just laughed because they know such a change takes decades not months.
Minsky’s observations of the Great Depression are seriously flawed. The primary problem was that they were focused domestically. They did not take into consideration the entire world economy. His hypothesis of financial instability argued that a financial crisis is endemic in capitalism because periods of economic prosperity encouraged borrowers and lenders to be progressively reckless. This excess optimism creates financial bubbles and then later busts. Therefore, capitalism is prone to move between periods of financial stability to instability. This is a type of market failure and it justifies government regulation to smooth the cycle, which is also his agreement with Keynesianism. The real cause is simply the human emotion. Women’s skirts rise and fall and men’s ties get wide and then back to thin. Fashion changes. Paintings of Paul Rubens portrayed robust women for that proved they were wealthy and could afford to eat. Skinny women were unattractive and considered to be poor. Even during the 1920s, advertisements told women how to gain weight. Today, the trend is the opposite. There is a cycle to everything.
Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis is merely something that monitors domestic considerations and from that perspective, he completely failed to comprehend the Great Depression. It was far more than merely excessive debt etc. He agreed also with Galbraith who blamed corporations and never even looked out the wholesale collapse of government debt on a major worldwide scale in 1931. There was NO MENTION of the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931 you can read about in Herbert Hoover’s memoirs 1931.
Under Minsky’s theory, he endorses government power to smooth out the business cycle which they have never been able to do even once. Yet in all fairness to him, Minsky also believed that financial instability was a characteristic feature of capitalism as did Kondratieff yet the very institutional and policy measures introduced by governments sometimes contribute to the problem. It has become known as the Minsky Moment which is a sudden major collapse of asset values which is part of the credit cycle or business cycle. Such moments occur because long periods of prosperity and increasing value of investments lead to increasing speculation using borrowed money. Unfortunately, while it sounds authoritative, it can be applied to many periods that did not result in a major crash of the economy and can simply be confined to one market rather than the whole as was the case with the DOT.COM bubble and the Bitcoin crash. Neither produced a major depression.
I have NEVER seen any former president send out this type of solicitation. If you have any spare change, donations are always welcome – in the millions please!
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I know you say you do not advise the IMF. But whatever you write, they follow and repeat. So they are following your blog at least and they implement whatever you say. This is very curious. They are now saying that Germany’s export model economy is threatening the world economy. You were the first to even differentiate domestic compared to export model economies. Do you care to restate that you do not advise the IMF?
GP
ANSWER: I do not deny that probably every government is reading this blog. That is the way it goes. They have realized that we not merely advise institutions, but we also report on trends that are not the subject matter of mainstream media. That said, we DO NOT HAVE any consulting agreement with the IMF. I have met personally with IMF board members. Yet keep in mind that does not mean that boards are unanimous in their decisions or beliefs.
What you are referring to is the IMF’s chief economist Maurice Obstfeld, who pointed out writing in the newspaper Die Welt (The World), further expansion of the German trade surplus would put financial stability at risk. He wrote that Germany’s continuing high trade surpluses are making Germany responsible for the increased crisis risks for the global economy with respect to trade disputes. He has also stated that there are no immediate threats to excessive trade imbalances in Germany. What he is talking about is with respect to global trade imbalances are promoting protectionist tendencies.
Keep in mind that everyone looks at the Current Account. I have stated numerous times that the Current Account also includes investment in buying government debt. The German Current Account surplus is now declining. Much of this was being driven by the internal capital flows within Europe moving to Germany as a hedge against the collapse of the Euro where the trade became the assumption that they would end up with Deutschemarks when the Euro collapsed.
Germany’s Current Account surplus peaked in 2015 at 8.9% of economic output. Last year it was still at the 8% level. The IMF classifies this 8% level as risky. This is by no means a sign that the Germany economy is booming. Actually, it has been the currency that has accounted for more shifts in manufacture than anyone would guess. The rise in the Euro from 82 cents to $1.60 between 2000 and 2008 was significant. By 2017, The German car manufacturer BMW actually produced 1.98 million passenger cars and light trucks built in the United States and were exported from there in the USA – not Germany. If we look at the dollar value of BMW exports from the USA, this accounted for $57.04 billion of U.S. international trade. BMW has actually become the largest manufacturer component that is being produced in the United States – not Germany.
Donald Trump has criticized Germany for its high trade surpluses. The USA is Germany’s largest export market. The current account includes the exchange of goods and services between states as well as the movement of capital. I have stated before that if we allocate trade according to the flag the company flies, then the USA has over a $2 trillion trade surplus. Are the BMWs exported from the USA German or American trade? They are creating American jobs, but the cars say BMW and people think they are imported.
Germany is using an old world mercantilist philosophy and assumes that an export-driven economy is THE number one objective. This is why German politicians were in favor of the Euro. It was Helmut Kohl who really pushed for the Euro to eliminate the FOREX risk to increase German exports. The IMF is repeating perhaps my observations of the Domestic v Export model economies. The shift to this focus seems to be driven by the trade dispute and negotiations with Trump. I am not so sure they are actually going as deep as I have with respect to the economic structure of economies. We all cannot have trade surpluses. Someone has to have a trade deficit. This is their focus whereby I and looking at the structured design. I am writing that for China to become the Financial Capital of the World, they MUST abandon the Export Model of Germany and shift to the Domestic Model to expand its economy that then supports the world as does the USA currently. Slight difference.
The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global business cycle. The entire world economy NEVER peaks and bottoms together. This latest turning point of July 12th, 2018 (2018.529) has apparently provided a MAJOR warning that we just could be moving into a major Cycle Inversion from the perspective of the United States. What does that mean? It means that the USA may be moving into a serious high in 2020 against a backdrop of a decline for the world insofar as liquid assets (non-fixed). The China share markethas just lost its status as king of the mountain in Asia as Japan has once again reclaimed that lofty position from a value perspective.
The ONLY markets, currency and economy moving against this global bearish trend into 2020 has been the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Index broke out above the simple Downtrend Line, whereas we do not see this in Europe or Asia.
When we look at the array of world currencies, it is hard to mistake the fact that the dollar is rising. The ONLY other currency to benefit has been Canada. This is reflecting a shift in global capital flows to North America. Canada has been to some extent benefited by its proximity to the United States and has offered some diversification for European and Asian capital outflows.
When we look at the Canadian share market index (TSE), we can see that the July 12th turning point produced the highest closing during July. By the time we reach the World Economic Conference in Orlando on November 16-17, 2018 (Friday & Saturday), we will be approaching the Pi turning point on November 22/23rd, 2018 the next week. Besides the US mid-term elections, we are facing a very critical people in Europe. November is lining up to be an important turning point in the currencies. This is shaping up to ensure that the Orlando WEC event will be a hot topic this year and we hope to strategically set the stage for the balance of the ECM wave from there onward into 2020.
Luke Rosiak, investigative reporter for The Daily Caller, revealed earlier tonight the name of the Chinese Spy employed by Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) for several decades. Russell Lowe began working with Dianne Feinstein in the 1970’s. According to prior reporting by CBS Lowe passed along information gained from Feinstein to the Chinese government.
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(Via Daily Caller) […] Hankoryeh, a South Korean news publication, described Lowe in October 2017 as “a Chinese-American who spent 20 years as the aide to Dianne Feinstein.” Lowe visited the publication’s Seoul office at that time with former Democratic California Rep. Mike Honda, who left office in January 2017 after losing to progressive challenger Ro Khanna in 2016.
Feinstein has said that the spy had “no access to sensitive information,” and the former staffer was never prosecuted. (read more)
Additionally, internet research done by @almostjingo via Twitter reveals that Feinstein’s relationship to Russell Lowe goes back much further than her time in the U.S. Senate.
It is fascinating to watch how the bias in people just ensures not just that a sucker is born every minute to replace the one that wises-up, but there are suckers who never learn from experience and cling to their ideas no matter how much it costs them. The U.S. dollar has been climbing against major currencies for several months, with the dollar index .DXY up is trading up about 2.84% for the year. It is true that the dollar has strengthened since late 2015 as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates against a background of steady economic growth, slowly rising inflation and the lowest U.S. unemployment rate since the 1960s. But the strength in the dollar is more than just interest rates. It is the prettiest of the three ugly sisters as they say – US – Europe – Asia.
The Fed has raised rates twice this year and is expected to raise rates a couple more times by year end which may attract more foreign capital into the U.S. dollar with monetary policy remaining loose to very insane in Europe and Japan. We have the ECM, which has destroyed the European bond market, frozen like a deal in headlights. It is trapped and it realizes that it has been buying the debt of member states who are now addicted to excessively low-interest rates. If the ECB actually stops buying, we are looking at a major debt crisis in Europe as interest rates explode exponentially. However, their policy of austerity has really oppressed the Greek economy and now they have their eyes set on Italy which will more likely create a revolution before the Italian accept going the way of Greeks – quietly into the night.
In Japan, there to they have wiped out the bond market. The government actually bragged that they bought 97% of the government debt auction. Hellow? That’s a good thing? The Bank of Japan has reduced debt purchases for a third time in June 2018, taking advantage of the recent stability in bond yields and the yen. At least Japan is reducing its purchases whereas the ECB talks a good game, but cannot actually do anything. The attempt to force austerity by the EU upon southern Europe is tearing the system apart.
The dollar bottomed in February 2018. It has yet to elect a Monthly Bullish Reversal. Trump has been unusually vocal about the dollar, unlike most Presidents, following more in the footsteps of Treasury officials. Trump has publicly been criticizing the dollar’s strength several times. He obviously thinks a lower dollar is better for trade. But the markets are going against Trump. You cannot “Make America Great Again” without also strengthening the dollar especially when we still have insanity in Europe economically and Japan still in never-never-land.
In a CNBC television interview, Trump said he was concerned about the potential impact of a stronger dollar on American exports. He also broke tradition by criticizing Federal Reserve policy on raising interest rates, saying it takes away from the United States’ “big competitive edge”. Trump has had no problem with deficit spending hoping it would reduce the dollar to support trade and therefore jobs. While investors and traders have been concerned about the spending, they have been forced to attribute some of the gains to the Trump administration’s tax cuts which are bringing capital home. On the other hand, they see the tax cuts as widening the fiscal deficit, and that they expect leads to borrowing more on the government’s part. Then Trump’s imposition of import tariffs against China, Europe, Mexico and Canada, they generally think will contribute to inflation. But they fail to grasp that Trump is using Tariffs to force a better trade deal.
So hang on to your hat. The strength behind the dollar CANNOT be analyzed simply by looking at the domestic situation. We are in a position of capital flight on a global scale. All these arguments add up to nothing when capital begins to flee from one economic crisis to another. Remember Herbert Hoover’s words from 1931. When we begin to see the first crack in Sovereign Debt, both in Emerging Markets and inside the EU, it will be Kattie-bar-the-door!
Many people are perplexed about the severity of Saudi Arabia’s response after Justin from Canada and Foreign Minister Crystina Freeland began denouncing KSA’s action in jailing a Saudi national, Samar Badawi (pictured below with Obama and Clinton), likely a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, for action against the government. It certainly appears there is a bigger backstory here than generally visible.
Saudi Arabia said on Sunday that it is ordering Canada’s ambassador to leave the country and freezing all new trade and investment transactions with Canada. “We consider the Canadian ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia persona non grata and order him to leave within the next 24 hours,” Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said on Twitter.
Perhaps… just perhaps, this action is connected to a larger issue of Canada’s severe leftist ideology, their support for the Muslim Brotherhood, and their relationship to the “Five Eye’s Intelligence” network.
With all of the revelations in the past year, it would not be surprising to discover a coordinated -and ideologically driven- effort by a left-wing international intelligence community against political adversaries. Remember, in the bigger picture, the ongoing challenge in Saudi is a confrontation with the Muslim Brotherhood…. a Brotherhood entirely supported by the political left; including Justin Trudeau and Crystia Freeland.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has their own intelligence apparatus up and running now. Remember the orb (above)? The “Global Center for Combatting Extremist Ideology”?
Then we have Canada, Australia and New Zealand, normally friendly allies, being exceptionally combative to an incoming Trump administration –SEE HERE– and adding to the mix, the United Kingdom being more of an ideological adversary than geopolitical ally –SEE HERE– oh, there’s that Five Eyes reference again. Under this scenario, the KSA action makes a lot more sense:
DUBAI (Reuters) – Saudi state airline Saudia said in a post on its official Twitter account that it was suspending flights to and from Toronto, the latest in a series of measures the kingdom announced on Monday in its diplomatic row with Canada.
The kingdom froze new trade and investment with Canada on Sunday after Ottawa urged Riyadh to free arrested rights activists. It also recalled its ambassador and gave the Canadian ambassador 24 hours to leave the country. (read more)
Tomorrow is election day in Ohio, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington. It does not seem coincidental that Silicon Valley monopolistic oligarchs and left-wing media control agents make political moves at this particular moment in the election season.
If you live in Ohio, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri or Washington you can find your polling place HERE. Go Vote…. and if your registration is not up to date in your own home state, now is the time to get prepared for November. Do not wait.
“Donald Trump’s supporters are angry“, or “uneducated”, or “unenlightened”, or (Fill_In_The_Blank). This was clear in the latest round of sunlight upon how officials within the United States Department of Justice and FBI leadership feel about a nation of citizens beneath their authority. Now the corporate media narrative controllers are fully engaged.
The gaslighting is extreme as the same entities utilize their microphones in a brutal attempt to create a self fulfilling prophecy. In essence, what they are really trying to save is themselves. However, the reality disconnect only solidifies their irrelevance.
At this point, anyone still trying to convince us this entire assembly of our union is headed in the right direction, well, they might want to revisit their proximity to the 2018 election ballpark. Because they’re not just out of the city – they’re also out of the same state the election ballpark is located in….. But then again, the media know that.
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David Mamet had a famous saying, essentially: …‘in order for genuine liberals to continue their illogical belief systems they have to pretend not to know a lot of things’… By pretending ‘not to know’ there is no guilt, no actual connection to conscience, denial of truth allows easier trespass. The Democrat ideology depends on your unwillingness to accept their presentations; and your reconciliation. Do not look away.
There’s a level of anger far deeper and more consequential than expressed rage or visible behavior, it’s called Cold Anger.
Cold Anger does not need to go to violence. For those who carry it, no conversation is needed when we meet. You cannot poll or measure it specifically because most who carry it avoid discussion. And that decision has nothing whatsoever to do with any form of correctness.
We watched the passage of Obamacare at 1:38am on the day before Christmas Eve in 2009. We watched the Senate, then the House attempt passing Amnesty in 2014. We know exactly how it passed, and we know exactly why it passed. We don’t need to stand around talking about it….
We know what lies hidden behind “cloture” and the UniParty schemes.
We watch the 2009 $900+ billion Stimulus Bill being spent each year, every year, for seven consecutive years. Omnibus, Porkulous, QE1, QE2, Bailouts, Crony-Capitalism. We know exactly how this works, and we know exactly why this ruse is maintained. We don’t need to stand around talking about it…. We’re beyond talking.
We accept that the entire Senate voted to block President Trump’s ability to use recess appointments in 2017. Every.Single.Democrat.And.Republican.
Cold Anger absorbs betrayal silently, often prudently.
We’ve waited each year, every year, for ten years, to see a federal budget, only to be given another Omnibus spending bill by Speaker Ryan.
We’ve watched the ridiculing of cops, the riots, and the lack of support for laws, or their enforcement. We’ve been absorbing all that. We’ve been exposed to violence upon us by paid operatives of the organized DNC machine. We know; the media trying to hide it doesn’t change our level of information.
Cold Anger is not hatred, it is far more purposeful.
Cold Anger takes notice of the liars, even from a great distance – seemingly invisible to the mob. Cold Anger will still hold open the door for the riot goer. Mannerly.
We’ve watched our borders being intentionally unsecured.
We’ve watched Islamic Terrorists slaughter Americans as our politicians proclaim their uncertainty of motive. We know exactly who they are and why they are doing it. We do not need to stand around discussing it…. we’re clear eyed.
Cold Anger evidenced is more severe because it is more strategic, and more purposeful. Eric Cantor’s defeat, Matt Bevin’s victory, Brexit, Donald Trump’s highest vote tally in the history of presidential primaries or Mark Sanford’s dispatch might aide your understanding.
Cold Anger does not gloat; it absorbs consistent vilification and ridicule as fuel. This sensibility does not want to exist, it is forced to exist in otherwise unwilling hosts – we also refuse to be destabilized by it.
Transgender bathrooms are more important than border security.
Trade deals, employment and the standard of living in Vietnam and Southeast Asia are more important to Wall Street and DC lobbyists, than the financial security of Youngstown Ohio. We get it. We didn’t create that reality, we are simply responding to it.
Deliberate intent and prudence ensures we avoid failure. The course, is thoughtful vigilance; it’s a strategy devoid of emotion. The media can call us anything they want, it really doesn’t matter…. we’re far beyond that.
Foolishness and betrayal of our nation have served to reveal dangers within our present condition. Misplaced corrective action, regardless of intent, is neither safe nor wise. We know exactly who Donald Trump is, and we also know what he’s not. He is exactly what we need at this moment. He is a necessary glorious bastard.
Cold Anger is not driven to act in spite of itself; it drives a reckoning.
When the well attired lady leaves the checkout line carrying steaks and shrimp using an EBT card, the door is still held open for her; yet notations necessarily embed.
When the U.S. flags lay gleefully undefended, they do not lay unnoticed. When the stars and stripes are controversial, yet the Mexican flag is honored – we are paying attention.
When millionaire football players kneel down rather than honor our fallen soldiers and stand proud of our country, we see that. Check the NFL TV ratings – take note.
When a school community cannot openly pray, it does not mean the prayerful were absent.
When a liar seems to win, it is not without observation. Many – more than the minority would like to admit – know the difference between science, clocks and political agendas.
Cold Anger perceives deception the way a long-term battered spouse absorbs the blow in the hours prior to the pre-planned exit; with purpose.
A shield, or cry of micro-aggression will provide no benefit, nor quarter. Delicate sensibilities are dispatched like a feather in a hurricane. Pushed far enough, decisions are reached.
[…] On the drive to and from the East Coast, I paid attention to the billboards and bumper-stickers. Folks, the people in “Fly over” country are PISSED, from the guy that guides hunters, to the mayors of towns and cities, to state senators congressmen and Governors who are voting to arrest and imprison federal law enforcement officials for enforcing federal gun laws that don’t agree with state law … The political pendulum has never, in the history of humanity, stayed on one side of a swing. The back lash from over reach has always been proportionate to how far off center it went before coming back … right now we’re staring at a whole hell of a lot of the country (about 80-90% of the land mass, as well as about 50+% of the population) that is FED UP. You really don’t want those guys to decide that the only way to fix it is to burn it down and start over… (more)
It’s too late…
DC has ONE option:
Remember, this is an insurgency. You must modify your mindset to think like an insurgent. Insurgencies have nothing to lose. If insurgents are not victorious the system, which controls the dynamic, wins. However, if insurgents do nothing, the same system, which controls the dynamic, also wins.
Do nothing and you lose. Go to the mattresses, and you might win. The choice is yours.
Right now, every day is Saint Crispins day.
If we are mark’d to die, we are enow To do our country loss; and if to live, The fewer men, the greater share of honour. God’s will! I pray thee, wish not one man more. By Jove, I am not covetous for gold, Nor care I who doth feed upon my cost; It yearns me not if men my garments wear; Such outward things dwell not in my desires. But if it be a sin to covet honour, I am the most offending soul alive. No, faith, my coz, wish not a man from England. God’s peace! I would not lose so great an honour As one man more methinks would share from me For the best hope I have. O, do not wish one more! Rather proclaim it, Westmoreland, through my host, That he which hath no stomach to this fight, Let him depart; his passport shall be made, And crowns for convoy put into his purse; We would not die in that man’s company That fears his fellowship to die with us. This day is call’d the feast of Crispian. He that outlives this day, and comes safe home, Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam’d, And rouse him at the name of Crispian. He that shall live this day, and see old age, Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours, And say ‘To-morrow is Saint Crispian.’ Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars, And say ‘These wounds I had on Crispian’s day.’ Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot, But he’ll remember, with advantages, What feats he did that day. Then shall our names, Familiar in his mouth as household words- Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter, Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester- Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb’red. This story shall the good man teach his son; And Crispin Crispian shall ne’er go by, From this day to the ending of the world, But we in it shall be remembered- We few, we happy few, we band of brothers; For he to-day that sheds his blood with me Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile, This day shall gentle his condition; And gentlemen in England now-a-bed Shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here, And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day.
The awakened insurgency, led by Donald Trump, is an existential threat to the professional political class and every entity who lives in/around the professional political class. The entire political industry is threatened by the insurgency. The entire political industry is threatened by Donald Trump.
Decision time.
You know why the entire apparatus is united against President Trump. You know why the entire Wall Street apparatus is united against President Trump. You know why every institutional department, every lobbyist, every K-Street dweller, every career legislative member, staffer, and the various downstream economic benefactors, including the corporate media, all of it – all the above, are united against Donald Trump.
Donald Trump is an existential threat to the very existence of the UniParty. Donald Trump is an existential threat to every entity who benefits from the UniParty.
Multi-billion dollar contracts at stake. Trillion dollar multi-national trade deals at stake. The fundamental construct of decades of their united efforts to tear away at the very fabric of the U.S.A is at stake. They too have nothing to lose, and they’re damn sure acting like it.
QUESTION: Thank you very much for your blog and all the knowledge that you pas on.
You are well known in many circles and I would think have great influence in the inner circles and behind the curtain. Now then your computer forecasts can sway a lot of people because of that. If you were to advice in advance of a major market crash you could be accused of starting a panic or worse. So my question is would you do it or sit on it and explain later?
Retired in Canada.
AW
ANSWER: No. We have ALWAYS provided forecasting regardless of the consequences. The Computer itself is writing the analysis on over 1,000 instruments daily. Everyone knows that there is no human writing these reports. Besides that, there are those behind the curtain who want the real forecast even though it may be against them. I have been on the phone with central banks during a crisis when they have asked me does it look like they will need to intervene. So you will be surprised. Even they want the truth when it counts.
I am not doing mainstream media interviews that would ever appear as a headline that the market will crash tomorrow or something like that. ONLY is such information appears in the mainstream media does it raise a red flag.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
There have been many people who have claimed they used his model and were able to forecast the 2007 crash. I know many traders around the world in a professional capacity and I do not know ANYONE who did not see the crash coming. Being able to say this is a bubble and it will end badly was the topic of the movie The Big Short. Being able to see such a bubble is by no means unusual for many who are seasoned. I know of no profession who bought into the whole Bitcoin nonsense of how it would replace the dollar, end central banks, and start a new age all within a matter of months. The professionals just laughed because they know such a change takes decades not months.
Centinel2012 