Posted originally on Dec 21, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Japan is cascading into a serious debt crisis. Even Japanese finance officials have come out and been shocked by the fall of the Japanese yen back to retest the lows of 1990. They have been urging the Bank of Japan to intervene in foreign exchange and are naturally blaming speculators. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato came out and stated:
“As we are alarmed by recent currency market developments including those driven by speculators, we’ll take appropriate action against excessive moves.”
In every government, they will always blame speculators and never their own policies. The mere fact that Kato has publicly made this statement demonstrates that the currency market is rather alarming, and the government is very concerned about the collapse of the Japanese yen. Currently, the dollar is trading at the 151 level. A year-end closing above 148 will warn that the dollar can rally substantially in the 200 to 250 zone. A close BELOW 147 would imply we could see the yen consolidate into 2026, but then it would resume a decline into 2027. Japan did conduct an intervention into the FOREX market buying yen last July to support its currency after fell below 161 per dollar level.
The BOJ’s rate-setting meeting concluded, suggesting that the U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials may not narrow as fast as previously expected. They did confirm that a former employee’s theft of over 1 billion yen from customers’ deposit boxes did not help with confidence overall.
Posted originally on Dec 20, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency over the bird flu. Of the 34 reported cases, 33 were working directly in farms. There is no grave danger to the public at large. This publicity stunt is merely a way for Newsom to have more power over his state ahead of Trump’s inauguration.
Newsom enjoyed endless power under COVID-19 guidelines and restrictions. I’ve met countless people who call themselves “pandemic refugees” as they were forced to flee California during the pandemic as it became one of the most oppressive states in the nation.
“This proclamation is a targeted action to ensure government agencies have the resources and flexibility they need to respond quickly to this outbreak. Building on California’s testing and monitoring system — the largest in the nation — we are committed to further protecting public health, supporting our agriculture industry, and ensuring that Californians have access to accurate, up-to-date information. While the risk to the public remains low, we will continue to take all necessary steps to prevent the spread of this virus,” Newsom declared.
Over 600 dairy farms are under quarantine in California due to the bird flu. I explained that the USDA will begin testing ALL dairy farms across America, despite no known instance of someone becoming sick from consuming dairy. There have not been any recorded cases of person-to-person spread either.
Newsom may now issue executive orders and proclamations under the premise that this virus is not posing a risk to the public at large. He may now assume direct control over emergency management and state operations, as well as expanding current budgets. He could actually make expenditures from any state fund available for his use. There is a deeper power play ploy at hand behind these actions.
Governments are eager to spend your tax dollars on useless initiatives to save the planet from global warming. The Biden Administration spent BILLIONS on investing in EV infrastructure that never came to fruition. I spoke on how Biden approved of a $7.5 billion spending package to build EV charging stations throughout the nation, but only SEVEN were produced in over a two-year span. His most recent climate debacle that came to light rests on decarbonizing the Postal Service.
The government provided the Postal Service with funding to purchase 60,000 “Next Generation Delivery Vehicles” (NGDVs) from defense contractor Oshkosh. Oshkosh has never produced an electric truck and it is obvious why Biden avoided other more established EV manufacturers. Congress approved $3 billion to spend on this $10 billion project derived from the Inflation Reduction Act – the largest guise for climate spending in US history.
Out of that $3 BILLION, only 93 vehicles have been delivered since 2022. Countless issues have been reported with these NGDVs from leaks to airbags. Worse, Oshkosh was never equipped to handle the production of 3,000 vehicles, and has stated that they have only been able to produce ONE truck per day. They are now working to refine their manufacturing to create 80 trucks per day. Again, there were other avenues and established factories.
Does anyone believe those small mail trucks are truly polluting the environment? Should the American people simply accept that they may not receive mail when the weather is less than ideal? “Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds” unless forced to drive electric!
Posted originally on Dec 19, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The war is over and it is safe for Syrian refugees to return home. Assad is no longer a threat and nations like Austria, Greece, the Netherlands, UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, and Norway have suspended new refugee applications. Yet, what about the four million Syrian refugees seeking asylum in the European Union? Reports are circulating the obvious – they have no plans to return home.
“Why should you go back when you have everything here?… In Syria I no longer have a home, a job or friends. I will only fly to Syria for holidays and to visit family – probably next year when the airport is open again,” one 27-year-old male refugee told Welt news outlet.
Syria’s new leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani conducted an interview with an Italian news outlet one day after taking power. His first priorities are to restore security and stability in all Syrian cities, saying his people have been “exhausted by injustice and tyranny.” His second priority is “to bring back the millions of Syrian refugees who are scattered around the world,” he stated. “Their human capital and experience will help restart the country. My appeal goes out to all Syrians abroad: Syria is now a free country that has regained its pride and dignity. Come back. We need to rebuild, to get our country on its feet again, and we need everyone’s help.”
His third priority should perhaps be his second: strategic planning and restoring basic essential services like electricity and stabilizing the food supply. Still, Syria needs patriots to come home to help rebuild their nation.
Regardless, European nations have never had the resources to fund millions of asylum seekers. Thanks to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany boasts the largest Syrian population in the EU. HALF of all welfare recipients in Germany are of foreign origin or 2.7 million people. They have been comfortably living in Germany with no plans to return, in fact, 23% of Germany’s population is now migrants of children of migrants. This is one of the reasons we are seeing people turn to the AfD Party as the people do not want to subsidize the lives of millions who no longer even qualify as refugees.
Breitbart reported the same sentiments among refugees living across Europe. As one UK-based refugee stated: “After seven years of living in the UK, I don’t think I will go back… Some of those now in charge of Syria were members of al-Qaeda just a few years ago. I don’t think Syria is safe now, in a few months and possibly not even in a year.” The cost of supporting each refugee has spiked to 41,000 pounds per year.
Ideas such as free air travel back to Syria and cash incentives have been thrown around, but that does not outweigh the luxury of living in a developed nation free of charge and often above the law.
Posted originally on Dec 18, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Like so many others, I cannot express my gratitude for creating Socrates. You provide forecasting for the entire world. In Brazil, Socrates has been a light in the middle of darkness. Our central bank has had to intervene four times, desperately trying to prevent the collapse of our currency, as we see nothing but soaring budget deficits. We are witnessing the wholesale spread across assets. Our government dollar bonds are declining despite being denominated in the US dollar. Our hopeless president, who the West cheered, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, proposed new income tax breaks alongside a plan to cut over $11 billion in spending last month. Lula has no idea about the economy.
Could you please comment on Brazil as we go, so does South America?
Enzo
ANSWER: It is so important to look at the entire world. We are all connected. However, looking at the array for South America it does not suggest that everyone will follow Brazil. Nevertheless, the US dollar should continue its advance into 2025. I would be concerned about the May/June time period next year. We are looking at the collapse of socialism. The election of Lula da Silva was an act of economic suicide for Brazil. Silva was elected in 2022 to be the president of Brazil. That was a stunning comeback following a very tight run-off race that was not without controversy. His victory heralded a political about-face for Latin America’s largest country. You can see the economic consequences ever since the US dollar reversed direction and was projecting going into 2025 for a major high. Bolsonaro is ahead of da Silva in the polls for the next 2026 election. It certainly appears that the US dollar will rally into 2025, impacting your 2026 election.
A year-end closing above 5.98, which the market is trading above currently, should confirm a new high for the dollar into 2025. Looking into next year, the overhead resistance will stand at 6.31, 6.79, and 7.27. Brazil is a founding member of the BRICS. The collapse of their currency files in the face of propaganda about how the BRICS will kill the dollar. They lack the economy and certainly the financial capability. As you mentioned, they had to issue debt in dollars to raise money. As the dollar rallies, those emerging markets that issued dollar-denominated debt are being pushed closer and closer to default in 2025.
Posted originally on Dec 13, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume was booed by a crowd of 20,000 employees after stating that the company is not “operating in a fantasy world.” The company already saw 100,000 union members walkout on Monday. “As management we’re not operating in a fantasy world. We are making decisions in a rapidly changing environment,” Blume stated. But the fantasy of climate change is indeed what the company is operating under.
Blume said that Volkswagen must begin to offload vehicles to Chinese consumers. Why would Chinese consumers by a European EV when they can purchase a Chinese model for a fraction of the cost? I recently discussed how even American auto CEOs were praising the technological advances of Chinese EVs. China was once a large market for Germany’s auto exports but that has changed since the government applied countless regulations in the name of climate change.
Then Volkswagen had its emissions scandal where it falsified emissions testing to sell to US consumers. I wrote in 2015: “This event appears to highlight the turning point of 2015.75; in hindsight, we will probably look back at this turning point as the start of a serious economic decline that will strike Europe’s biggest economy. The German car industry is the largest and what is unraveling is a taint upon all German cars, which is unfair. This involved diesel only. Nonetheless, things are never always fair.”
Now the company is looking to cut pay for 120,000 workers. Operating profits have fallen by 11.4% and they simply cannot continue producing these EVs at the same pace they were producing dreaded fuel-powered cars because the demand is not there. The government is actively preventing the auto industry from flourishing. It is a fantasy to believe that the German auto industry can continue adhering to the country’s climate change objectives that believe it can reduce carbon emissions by 65% within the next 5 years.
Yet another reason why the entire European Union is facing a recession. Germany is the bread and butter of the EU – the economic powerhouse. You had 17% of all GDP in Germany derived from the auto industry in 2023, and now the nation’s top auto manufacturer is struggling to make a profit.
China was a key player for Germany. Germany sold 241,000 vehicles to China in 2023, marking a large portion of its market share at a value of €15.1 billion. Auto suppliers were able to sell some €11.2 billion to China last year. Currently, one in five cars on the road in China have been manufactured in Germany. Yet, China’s own auto industry grew 156% over a two-year period from 2021 to 2023 after exporting 4.14 million vehicles last year. China is not adhering to the climate change agenda, and those same regulations derived from fictional data are not strangling China’s energy-dependent sectors.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz called China a “systemic rival,” but he failed to acknowledge the government’s role in stifling the private sector. The German Chamber of Commerce in China conducted a study this past September that revealed half of the 566 surveyed businesses planned to invest more heavily into China. Only 2% said they would be willing to sell off their Chinese operations, and 7% said they were considering a move away from China. Instead of working on open trade, all of the Western nations have deemed China an unfriendly nation to be wary of.
The move to end climate change is fundamentally driving a stake through the very heart of the German economy and therefore the entire EU. The mercantile economic model will continue to collapse under the fantasy world of climate change. While they may not reduce their carbon footprint, the Germany economy is certainly on track to reduce its economic footprint in the years ahead.
Posted originally on Dec 13, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, I cannot thank you enough for your coverage of the Middle East. Nobody provides such valuable forecasts for our entire region as you do. I know you have had friends in the various royal families, and you have been observed meeting with various central banks in the region. You have not been an analyst in theory only. You have been here and walked in our lands. As we say: أحضر الناس جوابا من لم يغضب “The best answer will come from the person who is not angry.” That is you.
My question is: Your Islamic Wave concludes next year, 2025.22, on March 21, and I understand that the ECM is not in Socrates, which calculates cycles independently. Since we see March/April as a critical turning point next year on many arrays, should we be alerted to more chaos in the Middle East during this period?
Thank you so much for your independence. What they did to you proved to everyone you are both honorable and independent. They did the same to Trump, proving he was not one of them and winning.
Their time is coming, جزاء سنمار جزاء مُجيرِ أُمِّ عامِرٍ الجزاء من جنس العمل “You reap what you sow.”
MM
ANSWER: Thank you. Yes, their time is coming. That’s 2032, but it started here in 2024 and will escalate into 2028. I have argued for years against the NEOCONs who judge the Middle East by their own ideas. They fail to comprehend that this is tribal. Everyone in Syria does not share an identity of being Syrian. They see themselves as first being Sunnie, Shite, Druze, Christian, etc, etc. They have sought to remove Saddam, Assad, and Quadafi under the theory that they would install democracy and they would bring peace to the Middle East. They judge the entire region as if this was a thesis for a PhD in school detached from reality. From the very beginning, the Sykes-Picot Agreement sought to carve up the Ottoman Empire and artificially create nation-states that never existed. These theories are so detached from reality that they have plunged the world into constant wars and confrontations.
There is a significant confrontation in the Middle East that appears many have never considered since they have focused on Iran rather than Turkey. While NATO has constantly pushed the propaganda that Putin wanted to retake Europe to reestablish the USSR, right within NATO there has been rising discord against this centralized dictatorial dogma. Turkey has long fostered a hatred of Greece, and this feud extends back to the Turkish conquest of Byzantium/Constantinople in 1453. But it has been the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has fueled his dreams to conquer the Middle East to reestablish the Ottoman Empire that was broken up by the West in 1916 – not Putin.
The Russian people have no desire to return to communism. Once they tasted freedom, nobody in Russia, China, or Eastern Europe wanted to surrender that freedom again. I personally went behind the Berlin Wall to see for myself what it was really like. I was horrified. Our cancel culture today was following the very same path I witnessed there where freedom of speech was dangerous.
I think it is important that we understand that, just as in Christianity, that is only a religion – not an ethnic group. The same is true in Islam. The Turks are not of the same ethnic cloth as those in Arabia in general. According to historians and linguists, the Proto-Turkic language originated in Central-East Asia. The origin has potentially been placed in the Altai-Sayan region, Mongolia, or Tuva. The Proto-Turkic speakers were potentially primarily hunter-gatherers but also included farmers. They would evolve into nomadic pastoralists due to the climate changes.
A 2003 study found that some Xiongnu remains from Mongolia had paternal and maternal genetic lineages that have also been found in people from modern-day Turkey. There is no question that medieval Turkic groups exhibited a wide range of both East Asian and West-Eurasian physical appearances and genetic origins. In Central Asia, the earliest surviving Turkic language texts have been discovered from the 8th century. Although initiated by the Arabs, the conversion of the Turks to Islam was filtered through Persian and Central Asian culture. Under the Umayyads, most Turks were domestic servants, but then, under the Abbasid Caliphate, they were trained as soldiers. That was the downfall of the Abbasid Caliphate, for by the 9th century, Turkish commanders were leading the caliphs’ Turkish troops into battle and rose in stature both militarily and in political power. They began to rise,e establishing provincial dynasties of their own supported by Turkish troops.
Tughril I (1037-1063) was the Turkoman chieftain who founded the Seljuk Empire during the 11th century. They are known as the Seljuk Turks, who were influenced by Persian civilization. Thanks to their military training, they were able to overthrow their masters, taking the eastern province of the Abbasid Empire. By 1055, the Seljuks captured Baghdad and began to make their first incursions into Anatolia, modern-day Turkey. When they won the Battle of Manzikert against the Byzantine Empire in 1071, it opened the doorway to Anatolia and the eventual conquest of Constantinople. They were able to breach the once impenetrable walls with cannons from Asia.
Although ethnically Turkish, the Seljuk Turks appreciated and became carriers of Persian culture rather than Turkish culture; they were not of the same gene pool. Nonetheless, the Turkish language and Islam were introduced and gradually spread over the region. With time, the transition from a predominantly Christian and Greek-speaking Anatolia to a predominantly Muslim and Turkish-speaking one was underway, thanks to the monetary crisis of 1092 and the fiscal mismanagement of the Byzantine Empire. All empires ultimately collapse from their own internal corruption as we witness today in Europe, Canada, and the United States.
In the 7th century, the Byzantines began putting the image of Christ on the coinage rather than the emperor. That forced the Arabs to establish their own currency giving birth to Islamic coinage. Previously, they merely used the Byzantine coinage, which had become the world’s dominant monetary system. We do not see gold coinage struck in Europe after the fall of Rome in 476AD until the 13th century because the gold coinage of Byzantium was the internationally accepted coinage.
Israel did strike hundreds of targets in Syria, about 80% of the military capacity, to eliminate chemical weapons and arms that could then be deployed against Israel; they also sent troops deeper into the country to retake the buffer zone that had been there for 50 years. While many are merely pointing at Israel, the rebel groups that toppled Bashar Al-Assad’s regime were funded by Turkey. Amid all the chaos, one man stands to gain more than anyone else who has become a key powerbroker – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
To complicate matters, we have some Christians and Jews trying to bring about the end times. Over the years, the dominant world powers have fiercely competed over these lands. My father was with General Patton, who began fighting against the German invasion in the Middle East.
The computer has highlighted the shift in trend coming early in 2025. I will do a special report on this crisis in January.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 