Surviving the Coming Transition


Business Cycle

QUESTION:  Dear Martin and co-workers,
Firstly, I want to express my appreciation for the writings at the blog (it opened my eyes! and I am very much awake now) and I read a daily. I am a stay-at-home-mother, artist, and I had never before gained knowledge about economics , it’s corruptive nature, and leading role in society. However Just a few months ago I saw the movie The forecaster. Martin you are truly an amazing guy!!! and I wish you the best!
My question:Do you have an advice or suggestion for people like myself. No traders, (middle income) families, living in Europe or the US, kids who would like to study. How can we accomplish that with just a little savings in order to the potential fall of the euro and collapse of the system?
P.S. I clearly understand that you don’t want to be a so called guru.
Sincerely, conny

hope

ANSWER: It is very difficult to see forward in such a manner. Tangible assets will make the transition to the next world of finance. There will be a new base of currency and it will most likely be electronic. The reason for this is political. The USA peaked as did Britain. The financial power will move to Asia, and Europe along with the USA will crash and burn because they are caught in this fictional world created by Marx. Russia and China collapsed under Marxism. It is just our time.

I would support some practical basket of currencies since Russia and China dislike having the dollar as the reserve currency. Likewise, with the dollar being the only practical currency standing, the USA is realizing that it may lose control of its domestic economy because of international considerations. Clearly, there have already been discussions of removing the reserve status of the dollar, but this cannot be accomplished unilaterally. Under no circumstance would I support placing the IMF in charge of this instrument. That organization is way too corrupt and my advice to China and Russia (where we also have this blog in their respective languages) is to reject any such attempt to hand this power to the IMF. We need a clean house to start such a project and the IMF has way too much baggage.

Education

Formal education is the way we perpetuate our mistakes forward. When I hire, I do not look at fake degrees. I look at the person and their thinking process. Samuel Butler (1835–1902) the iconoclastic Victorian-era English author, defined genius as “a supreme capacity for getting its possessors into trouble of all kinds.” If your child does not do well in school because they are bored rather than incapable of understanding such subjects, then they may be what people call a genius. Geniuses are often misunderstood in classrooms and are typically poor students whom teachers dislike because they are non-conformists. Studies at the University of Chicago and the University of Minnesota have found that teachers smile at children with high IQs and frown upon those with creative minds. When we had young people coming into the company who had to take their Series 7 exam, they would ask me questions. I quickly responded, “Do not ask me anything for if you do as I say you will flunk. Just memorize the answers, put them down, and then forget them and we will begin your REAL education in markets.”

The intelligent yet uncreative students accept conformity, never rebel, and complete their assignments quickly and perfectly. The creative child questions everything and accepts nothing. They are much more manipulative, imaginative, and intuitive growing up. They will often play one parent against another. In school, teachers dislike them because they will harass the teacher with questions that expose the illogical dogma they teach.

These genius children are often viewed as wild, naughty, silly, undependable, and lacking in seriousness or even promise. They even said that of Albert Einstein. Their behavior is typically distracting and they will often appear lazy, bored, and lacking any effort to try to advance, but in truth, they are absorbing everything around them. Such children will also give unique answers to banal questions because they are connecting the dots around them. Other children who are linear thinkers will typically reject these children which can cause them to be loners.

Ellis Paul Torrance (1915-2003) was an American psychologist who studied this subject and found that 70% of pupils rated high in creativity were actually rejected by teachers when picking a special class for the intellectually gifted. In a Stanford study, M.G. Goertzel, V. Goertzel, and T.G. Goertzel concluded that teachers would have excluded virtually everyone we consider to be a genius from Einstein and Edison to Picasso and Mark Twain. There is even a book on this called “The Price of Greatness: Resolving the Creativity and Madness Controversy” by Arnold M. Ludwig (1995) which explores the lives and achievements of over 1,000 extraordinary men and women. This book sought to answer the age-old questions about the relationship between mental illness and greatness. It also goes into factors that predict creative achievement in people. You will find a long list of very colorful stories about some of the most eminent artists, scientists, social activists, politicians, soldiers, and business people of our time.

Formal education is terrible. More than 60% of graduates cannot find employment in their field of study. Degrees are only useful to get jobs in brain-dead institutions that lack creativity themselves. Encourage your children to see the world dynamically and look for the connection between the dots. In ancient times, the key education was apprenticeship where you learned the field from the people actually doing the work rather than by those who lack experience. As they say, there are those who do and those who teach. I have been asked to teach at three of the leading universities. The problem is that I have no time. Those of us who really do things would find it boring and unfulfilling to simply stand up and teach a small class of kids. I might as well be a rock star singing the same song for 40 years (which is why rock stars need drugs to constantly do the same thing until they die).

If you understand what is coming, common sense will lead you to the answer. You are better off with tangible assets for the transition when it comes. From a European perspective, you are better off in dollars for now. The euro only gets interesting above 116. So you always have to define where you are right and wrong. Some people are keeping money in PayPal where they are not charged negative interest rates to simply have money there and they do not have bad loans on their books.

Illinois is Brooke and Cannot Pay the Politicians


Muger Leslie

I have warned that Illinois is on the brink of bankruptcy. Now, Illinois Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger says she will delay monthly paychecks for lawmakers and statewide officials since there isn’t enough money to pay the state’s bills and other services should come first. This is really interesting. What will happen next when the politicians cannot get paid?

Who is the Bigger Manipulator of All Time?


Manipulation-3

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have stood up against the bankers for their manipulations when nobody else would do so and paid the price that these people who hate you never acknowledge. They even made a movie about you for standing up to these bankers yet these goldbugs do hate you for exposing their rantings. If they were not wrong, they would not be against you since you have even shown how you project $5,000 gold in the years ahead using real analysis not guessing. It is always kill the messenger. To me this reflects their lack of honesty. My question is simple. Who is the bigger manipulator, the banks or government? Since Hillary’s lack of trust is at 57% and Trump is around 60%, I suspect it is government. But I will defer to you.

Thank you for looking after us

JD

ANSWER: In my “opinion”, there is no question that government is the master manipulator. This is what Marxism and Keynesianism is all about — how to manipulate society to maintain political power. This is also coming to an end. The central banks have manipulated themselves into an impossible position from which there is no escape. This is what will make the metals and stocks rally. This has nothing to do with bank manipulations, hyperinflation or fiat; this has to do with the collapse in confidence within government.

Negative Interest Rates Destroying the World Economy


Negative-Rates

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I think I am starting to see the light you have been shining. Negative interest rates really are “completely insane”. I also now see that months after you wrote about central banks were trapped, others are now just starting to entertain the idea. Is this distinct difference in your views that eventually become adopted with time because you were a hedge fund manager?

Just curious;

Bob

Summers-Larry-CareerANSWER: I believe the answer is rather simple. How can anyone pretend to be analysts if they have never traded? It would be like a man writing a book explaining how it feels to give birth. You cannot analyze what you have never done. It is just impossible. Those who cannot teach and those who can just do. Negative interest rates are fueling deflation. People have less income to spend so how is this beneficial? The Fed always needed 2% inflation. The father of negative interest rates is Larry Summers. He teaches or has been in government. He is not a trader and is clueless about how markets function. I warned that this idea of negative interest rates was very dangerous.

Yes, I have warned that the central banks are trapped. Their QE policies have totally failed. There were numerous “analysts” without experience calling for hyperinflation, collapse of the dollar, yelling the Fed is increasing the money supply so buy gold. The inflation never appeared and gold declined. Their reasoning was so far off the mark exactly as people like Larry Summers. These people become trapped in their own logic it becomes irrational gibberish. They only see one side of the coin and ignore the rest.

Central banks have lost all ability to manage the economy even in theory thanks to this failed reasoning. They have bought-in the bonds and are unable to ever resell them again. If they reverse their policy of QE and negative interest rates, government debt explodes with insufficient buyers. If the central banks refuse to reverse this crazy policy of QE and negative interest rates they will see a massive capital flight from government to the private sector once the MAJORITY realize the central banks are incapable of any control.

alarm_clockTime ClockThe central banks have played a very dangerous game and lost. It appears we are facing the collapse of Social Security which began August 14th, 1935 (1935.619) because they stuffed with government debt and robbed the money for other things. Anyone else would go to prison for what politicians have done and prosecutors would never defend the people because they want to become famous politicians. We will probably see the end of this Social Security program by 2021.772 (October 9th, 2021), or about 89 weeks into the next business cycle. These people are completely incompetent to manage the economy and we are delusional to think people with no experience as a trader can run things. If you have never traded, you have no busy trying to “manipulate” society with you half-baked theories. So yes. The central banks are trapped. They have lost ALL power. It becomes just a matter of time as the clock ticks and everyone wakes up and say: OMG!

Roman-Army

We have government addicted to borrowing and if rates rise, then everything will explode in their face. Western Civilization is finished as we know it just as Communism collapsed because we too subscribe to the theory of Marx that government is capable of managing the economy. Just listen to the candidates running for President. They are all preaching Marx. Vote for me and I will force the economy to do this. IMPOSSIBLE! We have debt which is unsustainable the further you move away from the United States which is the core economy such as emerging markets. Unfunded pensions destroyed the Roman Empire. We are collapsing in the very same manner and for the very same reason. We are finishing a very very very important report on the whole pension crisis issue worldwide.

Saudi Threat to Sell U.S. Assets is No Big Deal


Adel_Al_jubeer

Saudi Arabia has threatened the Obama administration and congressional leaders that it will sell billions of dollars in U.S. financial assets if Congress passes a bill to make the Saudi government legally responsible for any role in the 9/11 attacks. That bill would allow claims to freeze their assets in the USA by a judge pending the litigation. Obama has tried to stop Congress from passing the legislation, but this is a bipartisan Senate bill. Obviously, Saudi Arabia is worried that there are viable claims that are not frivolous. The typical dollar haters are championing this as a death knell, but Saudi Arabia’s assets of $750 billion are not exclusively government bonds. Saudi Arabia does not even make the top 10 list of holders of U.S. Treasury notes. Most of their “investments” are other assets which would be crazy for them to try to sell for the price would crash.

As far as Treasury notes, the Saudi holdings would be soaked up in minutes. Sorry, no big deal. I have warned that the whole Syria mess has involved a pipeline to deliver gas to Europe. They did threaten Putin that terrorism would hit Russia for the Olympics if they did not yield to Saudi Arabia. Then there are those pointing to the connection of terrorism in Brussels linked to Brussels’ largest mosque that is bankrolled by Saudi Arabia, a Salafist regime, which has tried to separate itself from the terror attacks. However, some say they are not revealing everything. There are more and more people pointing at Saudi Arabia so they are obviously trying to stop any lawsuits that might embarrass them even more. If people could file suits, either they just hand them default judgments or they defend, and to defend they have to provide a discovery of many things they do not wish to reveal.

2015-2016

Welcome to the other side of 2015.75 – the decline and fall of governments. This is a worldwide trend for their attempt to manipulate society is coming to an end. OPEC has been unable to control the price of oil. Governments have been unable to manage the economy. This is all coming to a shocking end. They will kick and scream all the way, but will not change the course of destiny.

Bundesbank Bank’s Thiele Against Electronic Money


Thiele Carl-Ludwig

The Bundesbank (German Central Bank) has come out opposed to eliminating cash. During the pre-Euro years, the Bundesbank was providing us with inside info on the Euro preparations because they were outright against it. Those who always hate central banks do not realize that they are not always what it seems. The Bundesbank is now clearly positioning itself against the drive to eliminate cash. Carl-Ludwig Thiele said this past week at an event in Berlin that the attempt to abolish and criminalize cash is out of line with freedom. He said that citizens should continue to decide how and in what form they want to use their money.

Thiele’s main arguments were:

  • Every citizen has the right, with his money to proceed as he wants. If action is taken at this point in the right to freedom of the citizen, it must be well-grounded. And so the question arises: How does a cash limit restrict crime in other countries? Thiele said he was not aware of any support where a cash limit, such as Italy or France, prevents crime. Crime should be correspondingly lower than in countries with no upper limit on cash, but that is simply not the case
  • The arguments that are made against cash and cash payments, are unconvincing, Thiele said. He went on to argue that cash protects the privacy of the population. That benefit is not a reason to twist into a benefit for criminal ignoring the majority of honest citizens. The right to informational self-determination and respect for private life is a valuable asset which should not be watered down or abandoned. “Cash is coined liberty” – this modified Dostoevsky quote has not lost any of its validity.

European Court of Justice say Banks Cannot Rely on Secrecy Laws to Deny Taxes


General view of the buildings of the Court of Justice of the European Communities

General view of the buildings of the Court of Justice of the European Communities

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has stated that banking secrecy established in Austria cannot be relied upon by German Bank branches in Austria to defeat tax authorities. Branches of German credit institutions in Austria must therefore provide information on accounts and assets to German tax authorities if a German customer is deceased to allow Germany to get inheritance taxes. The highest German tax court, the Bundesfinanzhof in Munich, had gone to the ECJ after the Sparkasse Allgäu refused to reveal to the tax office disclosing all account balances of their deceased clients. The hunt for money is endless. Whatever may have been the rule of law is pealed away when they are desperate for money.

Meanwhile, the United States also wants inheritance tax on Canadians who simply own property in the United States even if they are Canadian only. This entire turn of events going after inheritance taxes of non-citizens and the ECJ ruling that the laws of one country cannot block inheritance taxes in another continues to reveal the desperate increase in taxation.

Sunday Question: “Why Do You Support Donald Trump”?


I Like trump for two reasons number one is he has correctly identified the key problems facing our country; where are out of control spending, shipping job to China, open borders and bringing Muslims into America. There are others, of course, but those four are at the top of the list. Since i have been seriously studying these issues for 20 years it was refreshing to see one person hit them all.
The second reason is that he is not an attorney nor a politician since both are trained to lie and cheat. I got seriously into politics after 9/11 and when Obama ran the first time I worked very hard to stop him as he was exactly what we didn’t need. Between 2008 and 2014 the tea party group i belong too had many politicians come to us for recommendations and we had from them promises which i can state that few if any were ever kept. Since this was a personal observation of both local and national Republicans it was easy to see that the party itself was corrupt. By the way I’m in Cleveland Ohio.

Obviously I knew who Trump was but so I knew he was a very successful businessman which meant he knew how to get things done not pontificate about them. So when he announced he was running and talked about the wall and said he would get Mexico to pay for it he had we because I knew he could do it. And i have been writing and posting on my blog ever since about him albeit not as well as Sundance.

Modern Liberalism and the Death of Civilization


Prof. Paul Eidelberg

The Nihilism (involving moral relativism) that contaminated higher education in America begins with the early 20th century flood of European philosophy in American academia.  Most influential was Germany’s (or Hegel’s) historical relativism, which contradicts the biblical narrative, as did England’s (or Hume’s) atheistic empiricism. Both dominate higher education to this day, even in the “Jewish” state of Israel.

As Leo Strauss has shown, the father of modern liberalism is none other than Spinoza. Spinoza is also the father of biblical criticism. This made Spinoza the darling of Germany, of the nineteenth-century German school of Bible Critics.

Spinoza must therefore have encouraged the European-educated John Stuart Mill, whose mid-nineteenth essay On Liberty made him the world’s leading exponent of unfettered freedom of speech, hence of the free speech Liberalism that continues to predominate the mentality of American law schools and judicial institutions.

Paradoxically, however, free speech Liberalism is now eviscerating academic freedom in the United States. American colleges and universities have succumbed to the virtual totalitarianism underlying the prohibition of what is called “hate speech,” speech that offends the sentiments, above all the religious beliefs of Muslims, The ban on “hate speech” means the end of the liberal dogma of unfettered freedom of speech. The ban on “hate speech” may readily be construed as indistinguishable from speech involving, however remotely the character of other human beings.

What irony! The unrestrained permissiveness of Liberalism regarded obscenity as a protected form of speech by the American Supreme Court. This ruling at least denied the existence of truth and of evil, hence of that which denies the existence of a rational God, as well as the distinction between the human and the subhuman.

That denial can readily undermine the distinction between the polite speech appropriate in the company of woman and the obscene speech typical among vile men. This involves a degradation of language. The foulness of language violates the language of Holy Writ, which utterly avoids obscenity and employs only euphemisms to avoid any degradation of the human body, the creation of God.

This lofty attitude toward speech or language was overruled by Israel’s ultra-Liberal Supreme Court president, Judge Aharon Barak, who nullified a law permitting the Film Censorship Board to ban pornographic movies by ruling that nothing can actually be declared pornography, “as one man’s pornography is another man’s art” (Station Film Company v. Film Censorship Board, 1997).

As a free speech Liberal, Barak seems to have been very much influenced by the academic doctrine of moral-cum-cultural relativism. Moral-cum-cultural relativism was, and effectively still is, the ruling dogma of the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

The most famous and influential intellectual founder of this university was the German-educated Martin Buber. Buber, who renounced Judaism to the extent of marrying a Gentile, propagated the anti-Jewish Hegelian doctrine of Historical Relativism (or moral pluralism). Buber’s book, Two Kinds of Faith, happens to provide a philosophical basis of the “two-state solution” to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Buber wrote Two Kinds of Faith to justify by his marriage to a Gentile, a convenient academic justification for a Jew-turned cultural relativist!

 

Epilogue

The free speech Liberalism underlying American as well as Israeli law has sanctified public obscenity and even pornography, which are rooted in atheism. The denial of God, evident in contemporary Liberal education, engenders the denial of all moral distinctions. An important set of moral distinctions is related to men and women. The ascendency of free speech Liberalism, of unfettered freedom of speech, diminishes the differences in the language used in speaking to and about men and women.

This unrestrained Liberalism encourages not only homosexuality and the legalization of same-sex marriage. By its denial of truth it generates nihilism which in turn undermines any normative understanding of Islamic terrorism, as is evident in President Barak Obama’s attitude toward that savagery.

Same sex marriage, like Islamic terrorism, is a rejection of Western Civilization. Women (hence children) will be the first victims of this Liberalism, beginning, as mentioned, with our attitude toward Language. Since language distinguishes the human from the subhuman, its degradation in obscenity cannot but degrade human life. This is also the consequence of Islamic terrorism which, consistent with Islamic theology, substitutes the primacy of force over the primacy of reason.

Summing up: free speech Liberalism – with its denial of truth – is actually a negation of rational speech, hence of God’s gift to man. Unfettered freedom of speech, the tendency of modern Liberalism, and implicit in the above-mentioned decision of Judge Aharon Barak, signals the death of rational speech, hence of civilization.

With Barak-type Liberals laying down the law concerning what was traditionally known as distinctively human, and therefore hence of what is decent and indecent, the word “terrorism” will become as meaningless as the term “marriage.” Small wonder that neither Israelis nor Americans know where they are going, although there are signs that their ultimate destination is the grave.◙

The Other Side of a Phase Transition


BoilingCurve

QUESTION:

Dear Marty,

Whether in a Phase-transition or a Slingshot Move in the Dow, you made it very clear that such moves will be driven by capital inflows to the USA due to the alternative flight to quality to the private sector, both internationally and domestically. It is now just so obvious, it is unfolding in front of our eyes.

The question, however, will be whether capital will remain parked there for long time, or else leave abruptly to go elsewhere? For as high as it can go, that market sooner or later will eventually run out of steam, just like any other system. We are now focusing on the flows towards it, but can you please shed a light on what will come next? Will there be a trade to the downside too? Where will all that capital go at that point, simply repatriate, go to Asia? Your knowledge and wisdom on this would be highly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.
SB

ANSWER: What goes up must also come down. A Phase Transition is the culmination of a collapse in public confidence which is now rising before our eyes.. The question really becomes rather blunt. Will we simply readjust? Or will we crash and burn? This appears to be the end result of socialism. Therefore, we are more likely to see at this time a collapse of the world monetary system. A rise in the dollar will break the back of the US economy and that is what is needed to create the next step toward monetary reform.

WorldEconomy

We are most likely going to see a new monetary system where the dollar will no longer be the reserve currency. That will probably become some form of a basket. This is the collapse of the West just as Communism collapsed and altered the course of China and Russia. Therefore, we are looking at the shift of the financial capitol of the world from the West to the East dominated in India/China. As we can see, the financial Capitol of the World always migrates.  After Rome and the fall of Byzantium, the capital moved to India. It then moved to China. When Christopher Columbus set sail, he was trying to get to India because that was where all the money was. You do not set sail to be to a slum in a third world country. Europe was rising, but it had been reduced to a third world status.

Priebus ReinceThe other side of a Phase Transition will be the fall of the West. That is just how things evolve. We are plagued with politicians who are incapable of making any changes to save the country because they are too busy grabbing the free soap in the hotel room. Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus responded to Donald Trump’s recent complaints that the nominating process is rigged against him by saying: “Give us all a break.” Priebus demonstrated by his response that the game is rigged. He said: “Nomination process known for a year + beyond. It’s the responsibility of the campaigns to understand it. Complaints now? Give us all a break.”  Priebus is an American attorney and politician so he is a trained and know how to lie when necessary. Note what he says: “Give me a Break”. He does not deny anything nor does he say Trump is wrong. He simply says they rigged the voting system more than one year ago so why complain now. This is a typical response designed to fool the majority as if Trump is wrong. All he is saying you knew this was the game so it is not fair to complain now after a year has passed. Priebus did not deny anything Trump had to say. He only said you did not complain soon enough. This is like someone who robs you and they justify keep your goods claiming you should have complained before. Yes, Priebus, give us a break from this clever double-talk. Unfortunately, this is the classic example of how dishonest politicians have become. There is no honor nor is there any accountability. They will distort and twist things around right before your eyes and do not care because the media will never analyze what they just said. This is why we just have to crash and burn. We cannot reform with people like this trying to maintain an unfair system.