The Federal Reserve is nearly done completing its revamp of its Washington, DC, headquarters with a price tag of $2.5 billion. The luxurious facility has come under intense scrutiny as many believe they are borrowing from public funds while already operating in a deficit. Yet, these funds will not be added to national debt calculations.
The Federal Reserve operates on a self-funding mechanism, allegedly, using revenue it generates from interest on government securities and other services such as payment processing. Yet, that interest is generated from public funds. However, the Federal Reserve does not need approval from Congress to finance internal costs as it manages to bypass the federal budget.
The national debt is calculated based on congressionally authorized borrowing. Since no Treasury securities were issued, these costs remain off-budget and outside final calculations. The Federal Reserve operated independently, and as such, it can build a massive new facility equipped with garden terraces, elaborate water sculptures, ceiling skylights, and a private elevator system to transport board members to the newly designed VIP dining suite.
There are several special lending programs budgeted through the Fed that will not be included in the national debt. For example, the central bank purchased $500 billion in short-term debt from local and state governments during COVID to push cash into the system. Loans provided through the Main Street Lending Program and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) are not factored. The Fed maintains some monetary policy tools absent of congressional approval, like discount window loans and overnight reverse repurchase agreements.
Foreign central banks may exchange their treasuries for dollars, which does not pull from public funds. The FedNow Instant Payment system for banks also operates independently, as does the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) that funds around $630 million annually.
The Fed has a $7.4 trillion asset portfolio that is not congressional appropriations. Any losses are considered deferred assets on the central bank’s balance sheet. Now, the Fed differs from other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, which rely more on shareholder capital and government-backed reserves. The 12 regional Federal Reserve banks operate as quasi-private institutions with elected board members, whereas the ECB and BoJ operate as public entities.
The Fed returns around 90% of its net income to the US Treasury despite the current negative press. The new headquarters may be excessive, but it is paramount for the Fed to remain independent from the federal government. Politicians should not drive fiscal policy, as all confidence in the system would be lost. A central bank like Turkey’s, which is completely politically controlled, faces ongoing currency crises and inflation because politicians only want to patch up the short term to ensure they win the next election. Congress should have no say in the Fed’s budget – period.
Posted originally on Apr 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
German Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is urging the European Union to force nations to drastically increase aid to Ukraine under an emergency clause. This emergency clause acts as a loophole that could allow Brussels to surpass defense investment parameters.
Kukies penned a letter on April 24, 2025, to Brussels to state that the “changing environment in Ukraine “requires a significant build-up of defense capabilities with a major impact on its public finances.” This clause would force EU members to spend up to 1.5% of GDP on Ukraine for the next four years. Kukies also would like the European Commission to consider expanding what constitute as “defense” spending, as it “adequately reflects the multiple threats to security in Europe” and considering “in particular dual-use expenditure.”
Incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz has already agreed to spend €1 trillion on Ukraine’s military and infrastructure. Germany is not “leading” Europe as many believe. Rather, it is dragging the entire continent into the grave. This is not about helping Ukraine. This is about creating the next perpetual conflict to justify more government power, more taxation, and the further erosion of individual liberty.
The German government believes it has the funds to shell out. Yet, other EU members have not masked their hesitancy to sink into debt at the expense of Ukraine. When Foreign Policy Chief Neocon Kaja Kallas attempted to bend the bloc’s hand to increase spending, a few southern European nations like Italy and Spain shouted that they did not want to excessively increase their debt. Spanish Finance Minister Carlos Cuerpo touched on a point that caused Brussels to shudder. If Europe believes it is acting as a solid consolatory force, then why not consolidate the debt?
Spain proposed a temporary special purpose vehicle (SPV) that would restructure defense debt from national balance sheets by issuing joint European debts through bonds or a similar vehicle. EU and non-EU nations could fund the SPV with a shared repayment obligation. Brussels is still considering the proposal, but rest assured that the top economies in the EU will not want to share the debt obligation. The entire premise of the euro robbed lower GDP nations through a failure to consolidate debt, and nations like Germany refused to forgive their multiplied debt after they adopted the euro because every nation will put itself first. It was a fantasy to believe that a continent could erase its borders and operate as one.
The computer has warned that Europe is at risk of a depression. The EU is collapsing under its own weight. The unelected authoritarian regime in the EU is working to destabilize Europe to fight Russia, and member nations must stand idle and watch their nations spiral into debt to spur on a war that was never their battle to fight.
Posted originally on Apr 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
I have never witnessed such outright lies by a candidate as Carney. But hey, it has worked. With the votes in from the East, giving the Liberals 150 seats out of 343 so far, there is no way the Conservatives will get a majority. Our model provided three numbers for the Liberals: 41.25, 45.40, and 59.93. They are at 45.5 currently. His entire campaign has been about hatred of Trump.
Carney is a globalist, and he will sign up with the losing team, all for this agenda from the World Economic Forum, of which he has been indoctrinated as a key player. Mark Carney will remain Canada’s prime minister. There is no question about that. Even if the Conservatives took every seat in the West, they would still not have a majority and Carney will form a coalition if he didn’t get 172 seats.
As one reader just wrote in: “To be honest with you, I don’t care anymore, today Canadians have sealed their fate .” Our computer has been showing that Canada’s economy will take a nosedive over the next two years, into 2027. Of course, Carney will blame Trump. He has carried out this agenda from the Neocons to try to isolate Trump. Still, in the process, Carney has undermined trade relations with the United States far beyond Trump, and sources say he will try to shift to the EU, which can’t seem to get out of its own way when it comes to economics. EU consumer consumption is $1.29 out of $10 globally, with 450 million people, compared to 25% for the USA, with only 330 million people. The EU will likely move into a depression, so this won’t work out well for Canada.
Posted originally on Apr 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates seems to be pointing to a C$ bounce. Does this imply that Carney will lose, or does it mean the bounce will be brief on his nonsense and then turn south?
RE
ANSWER: The only hope that Carney has is a coalition. Comparing the Conservatives to the Liberals in Canada provides an interesting picture. Trudeau was able to be the leader of Canada with 32% of the vote. The computer clearly shows that Carney will beat Justin Trudeau, who was first elected as Prime Minister of Canada on October 19, 2015, and served until his recent resignation in January 2025. He led the Liberal Party to victory in three federal elections during his tenure. In 2015, he had 39.47% of the vote. Then in 2019, he won with 33.1%. Then in 2021, he won with 32.6% while the Conservatives beat him with 33.7%. This is the problem with a Parliamentary system – it allows fragmentation and coalitions.
Trump threw his 2 cents into the ring on Truth Social. That could help Carney. Canada would never become the 51st state. Each province would become a separate state, and that would mean each gets two senators, and they could join the Democrats and kill the US economy with their EQUALITY that has killed Canadian productivity. Canada’s once-thriving economy is now facing severe challenges, from a housing bubble that has pushed debt beyond GDP to a massive brain drain of skilled workers. With real estate prices climbing over 300% in two decades while wages lag far behind, homeownership is slipping further out of reach for most Canadians. At the same time, Canada’s productivity is declining, with the average worker producing 30% less than their U.S. counterpart. With rising discontent, increasing financial strain, and a lack of strong leadership. This has led to the question of how much longer Canada can hold on before a major economic crisis?
In the last election, the Conservatives beat Trudeau with 33.7% vs 32.6%. To get a majority, they need 172 seats. The Liberals will most likely carry the East – Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario. This election could ignite the separation fires burning beneath the surface in the West. Our model warns that it was the completion of a 72-year cycle in the 2021 election for the Liberals, and that should be the low point. They have a fighting chance this time and will beat Trudeau’s numbers.
We still have the risk of war in May. Germany has just instructed Zelensky not to agree to any peace deal with Trump. The key level will become 7225 in the future, going into May.
Posted originally on Apr 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Martin,
Had to laugh here’s a comment about Janice Stein and Mark Carney.
As my father in law always said, “in the valley of the blind the one eyed man sees the most.”
The world is full of Academics that have no clue, too many people playing business and politics with other people’s money and lives!
“Janice Stein Endorsed Carney . Canada’s Leading, Most Respected Political Scientist and International Affairs Expert Janice Stein saying “Mark Carney is the “World’s Leading Economist” and Could very well lead the “Whole World” through the Trump Crisis, let alone Canada.” Stein isn’t just a leading voice in Canada—she’s recognized worldwide for her expertise in conflict resolution, global governance, and international relations. When someone of her global standing says this, it’s a big deal! Janice Gross Stein is Canada’s leading, most respected political scientist and international affairs expert.”
When a third of the country works for the Government, and a third is living off the Government, it sure makes it hard for the other third to vote for a Government.
Unfortunately, this Monday, Canada will witness another Liberal win, which will confirm your forecast that Canada will split!
It’s just time!
Jim M
REPLY: Carney was a key player in this Net-Zero nonsense, and he has lied about everything and acts like he is running against Trump – nobody else. I have not yet confirmed that the coup at the WEF was also in hopes of supporting Carney to claim he is not truly linked to Schwab, since he is no longer there. Trudeau resigned to avoid a NO CONFIDENCE vote, which would have led to the loss of power for the Liberals. Every step of this game is to retain power for the LEFT.
Carney is the instrument of Canada’s demise, for the LEFT will always burn down their own houses to protest against the RIGHT. Carney offers nothing that will benefit Canada, and the joke that Canada will replace the USA as the new leader of the world is laughable. Canada is highly socialistic, so the “income inequality” is lower, just like Communist Russia and China, which ultimately caused their demise. The productivity of the US compared to Canada explains the cost of the more regulations that Canada adopts, following Marx’s socialist philosophy.
United States: $76,643
Canada: $56,316 The U.S. GDP per capita is about 36% higher than Canada’s in nominal terms.
The U.S. indeed has higher inequality, so that median income disparities may be less pronounced. The U.S. generally has higher labor productivity due to greater investment in innovation and technology. The U.S. population (332 million) is nearly 9x larger than Canada’s (38 million), the US economy accounts for 25% of the entire world’s consumer spending, which is why the US is the reserve currency of the world because everyone has to sell whatever products for export to Americans – not Canadians.
Carney’s Vision of Replacing the United States as New World Leader
There has been a coup at the World Economic Forum because these very LEFTIST views and agendas are collapsing. So, Carney wants to lead the world on a sinking ship? As one reader put it.
“It appears from here, at first glance, that the WEF is repainting its storefront in an effort to stay in business while narrowing its attacks on the global food supply chain to taking control of the water supply. Same depopulation goal, new coat of paint.”
FA in Arkansas
Military:
The US has one of the largest militaries globally, with approximately 1.3 million active-duty personnel, with 800,000 reserves, which is the highest globally at $877 billion (2023), about 3.5% of GDP.
Canada has around 68,000 active personnel and 27,000 reserves, which cost $26.5 billion (2023), roughly 1.3% of GDP.
The US military is a global powerhouse with unmatched scale and technology, while Canada’s smaller force emphasizes specialized roles, alliances, and domestic/Arctic security. Their cooperation through NATO and NORAD underscores a strategic partnership, with Canada often leveraging US capabilities for broader defense needs. Yet, Carney is claiming that Canada will now lead the world? Differences in budget and scope reflect distinct national priorities.
The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The problem with Canada is that the Parliamentary System does not allow the people to vote for who should lead the country. Carney would never become president in the United States, where 42% would be the loser. The problem is that governments are cobbled together with coalitions, and this is what prevents any true economic progress for the future.
The LEFT has been declining since its high in 1949, necessitating coalition governments to remain relevant. Trudeau only won 32.62% of the vote in 2021. Carney should beat that since the 2021 election was most likely the bottom of a 72-year cycle. Additionally, the higher percentage of the workforce employed by the government in Canada naturally gives them an edge over conservatives. The rate of the US workforce employed in government is 13.8%, compared to 18.6% in Canada. This is what has lowered the Marxist view of “income equality” in Canada vs the USA.
We will do an Update on the threat of Canada Splitting soon.
Posted originally on Apr 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Nigel Farage said that your WEC events were the “alternative to Davos,” but you also don’t gouge people as Schwab does. He charges between 500,000 and 700,000 CHF to be a member and 27,000 CHF to attend Davos. Your forecasts come true, theirs never do. Our firm did not renew for 2025 after Trump won the election. Our board follows your projections, not those of the World Economic Forum (WEF). You’re correct, you went there only for political connections, not for the forecasts. Their failure to achieve Agenda 2030 is apparent. Schwab’s board members have been placed in high positions, from the ECB and the EU, as well as with the gullible like Trudeau and Carney in Canada.
Nigel’s Reform Party is now also in first place. This is because he shares your philosophy, not Schwab’s.
You are the only real forecaster and the genuine alternative to Davos.
DH
REPLY: Thank you. In all honesty, Schwab was never right because he is an academic caught up in the Marxist theory that the government has the power to control and alter the direction of the economy and society. Nobody has ever been able to change the business cycle, let alone “flatten the curve” of a virus.
He stuffed political positions with his star pupils and bragged about infiltrating so many cabinets, especially those of the Liberal Party in Canada and in New Zealand.
The lockdown destroyed the economy because these people only look at a single issue and cannot understand that (1) we are all connected, and (2) the lockdown failed to reverse the climate change nonsense, which was the fundamental objective, nor did it stop the virus that comes back seasonally. The WEF was proud of the lockdowns.
What they just did to Schwab is consistent throughout history: the LEFT is always the most violent. They always view themselves as the victims of the RIGHT because they work for their money and get ahead. The LEFT revolutions of 1848 and the early 20th century have killed hundreds of millions. Nothing will ever change in this regard.
Posted originally on Apr 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has replaced Klaus Schwab as the acting CEO of the World Economic Forum in what appears to be a stage coup. The 80-year-old Austrian businessman spent his career working for Nestle, moving through the ranks from 1968 to 1997 when he was appointed CEO, a position he held until 2008. He remained at Nestle as a chairman until 2017, when he was appointed as Chairman Emeritus.
Brabeck-Letmathe held board memberships with Credit Suisse, Roche, Exxon Mobil, L’Oréal, and Salt Mobile SA. He was the founder and chairman of the 2030 Water Resources Group (WRG), a public-private partnership within the World Bank.
The 2030 Water Resources Group (2030 WRG) is a global multi-stakeholder partnership that brings together governments, the private sector, and civil society to address the growing challenges of water scarcity and water management worldwide. This program was first launched at the WEF’s Davos in 2008, and naturally, Nestle is a major partner as well. Demand for water will outweigh supply by 2030, the group insists, and its goal is to manage the world’s water supply.
Nestle extracts free-flowing water, bottles it up in plastic containers, and marks it up for a profit. The company has acquired water extraction rights across North America, permitting it to extract large volumes of water from public lands, springs, and aquifers, often siphoning far more than the law permits. The company effectively found a way to privatize access to water. Many communities have gone without water due to the company’s control over the water supply. The company has no concern for the environment or human rights, and this is merely the tip of the iceberg in terms of their corrupt practices.
What better way to control the masses than to control the water supply? Remember, the World Economic Forum has strongly advocated banning independent farming and gardening. Everything they ban is under the premise of protecting the climate, but as you can see, the new WEF CEO has never cared about the environment.
The WEF partnered with the United Nations to encourage “global policy coherence” and increased investment to manage the world’s water supply. It is no conspiracy – globalist entities are scheming ways to manage our water usage. These unelected entities believe they can deem what constitutes essential and non-essential water usage. Brabeck-Letmathe believes 98.5% of freshwater used for farming and agriculture should be classified as an economic good that is priced according to reduce waste. Controlling the water supply will permit them to also control the food supply.
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has spent a lifetime studying methods for privatizing water. In the video above, Brabeck-Letmathe said that Klaus Schwab asked him why he wanted to focus on water over CO2 and the Earth’s warming. “I think our real problem is more urgent—it’s on the water side.” He later noted that governments must first believe that they have a water crisis and then partner with the private sector to solve this new problem. Agenda 2030 did not die with Schwab’s departure. There is a new leader at the helm and a new focus to usurp ultimate control over the global population.
There has been a Coup at the WEF for nefarious Reasons,, which we will discuss separately on the weekend
Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
NATO has heightened its alert level, placing fighter jets in the “highest state of readiness” in response to Russia’s aggressive strikes in Western Ukraine. The Armed Forces Operational Command confirmed that allied air forces have commenced patrols over Polish airspace near the Ukrainian border. Zelensky’s refusal to accept any peace deal demonstrates he is taking orders from NATO and the American Neocons, who, my sources say, are operating now out of Paris and London to ensure this war does not end. President Donald Trump on Wednesday lashed out at Ukraine’s president, saying Zelenskyy is prolonging the “killing field” after pushing back on ceding Crimea to Russia as part of a potential peace plan.
The people living in Crimea are ethnic Russians, not Ukrainians. The total population of Crimea is approximately 2 million people, of which 12-15% are Tatars, descendants of the Mongol invasion of 1240. There is no ethnic Ukrainian population living there. This is purely a territorial grab for war with Russia and nothing more. The Ukrainians have a history of ethnic cleansing and hatred of other races. They even horrified the German Nazis by their cruelty. In this photo, they executed a woman for being Jewish. They buried her child alive to save bullets.
The ONLY way to stop this is for Putin to drop the leaflets on Kiev, tell them to vacate Ukraine, and you have 30 days before it utterly destroys Kiev like the Romans did to Carthage to end the Punic Wars. The Romans destroyed Carthage in 146 BC at the end of the Third Punic War (149–146 BCE), essentially to eliminate Carthage as a political, military, and economic rival and to prevent future conflicts. A combination of fear, vengeance, and strategic calculation drove this action.
After the Second Punic War (218–201 BCE), in which Hannibal nearly defeated Rome, Carthage was reduced to a weakened state but began recovering economically. Many Romans, like the statesman Cato the Elder, feared Carthage might regain power and threaten Rome again. His famous refrain, “Carthago delenda est” (“Carthage must be destroyed”), reflected this paranoia.
Rome arguably provoked the Third Punic War. Carthage had complied with earlier treaties, but Rome exploited a minor conflict with Numidia (a Roman ally) to justify invasion. Hardliners in the Roman Senate, eager for glory and wealth, pushed for total war. The annihilation of Carthage—burning the city, killing or enslaving its population, and symbolically salting the earth (though this detail may be later legend)—sent a brutal message to other Mediterranean powers about Rome’s ruthlessness in crushing enemies. Carthage’s territory became the Roman province of Africa, enriching Rome with its resources. The destruction marked the end of Carthaginian civilization and secured Rome’s hegemony over the western Mediterranean.
In this instance, it is NATO and the Neocons who have provoked this war with Russia out of vengeance for once being communist. They installed the interim UNELECTED president Oleksandr Turchynov (born 1964) and ordered him to attack the Donbas instantly, beginning the war. He called them terrorists because they wanted separation after Ukrainians massacred Russians in Odessa. There will NEVER be a genuine peace with Ukraine because NATO controls their leadership, and Trump has to come to grips with this.
The only possible way to end this war is the total destruction of Ukraine. Drop the leaflets as the US did to Japan, telling the people to leave. Europe will threaten nuclear war if they do that, and Russia has to target every major city in Europe. Then and ONLY then will the people of Europe rise up against their brain-dead leaders who take orders from NATO and the Neocons and stop this insanity. The French Senate just voted 372 to 99 in favor of war with Russia. Europe will be destroyed in the process if NATO and Neocons are not stopped.
The whole issue of hating Jews was a conspiracy that Communism was a Jewish creation because Lenin, Trotsky, and Marx were all Jewish. This is why Soros and Zelensky both pretended to be Christians to escape the hatred of Jews and the ethnic cleansing, all based on the idea that Communism was created by Jews, when it began in France as the Commune Movement.
Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Donald Trump has come out to say that he had no plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. “No, I have no intention of firing him,” Trump told reporters. “I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,” the president added. “This is a perfect time to lower interest rates.”
Perhaps the president realized he did not have the power to fire the Fed Chair, as I have outlined. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett declared less than a week ago that the administration was seeking loopholes to fire Powell. Around the same time, Trump declared that he did have the power to fire Powell, ““If I want him out of there, he’ll be out real fast.”
Powell, who was appointed under Trump’s first term, has face countless issues from presidents who refuse to align fiscal policies to meet monetary goals. Donald Trump has been pushing the Fed to lower interest rates dating back to his first term. Powell broke step with Washington and announced that former President Joe Biden’s reckless spending was endangering future generations. Now, Trump is once again pressuring Powell to drop rates despite the fact that QE policies have failed, and he is viewing the economy as a buyer rather than a lender.
Powell is likely eager for retirement, slated for May 2026. The president does not have the power to fire the chairman, but he does have the authority to appoint the next one. Fed governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, economist Art Laffer, and Larry Kudlow are all potential contenders for the job based on reports. Some believe Warsh is the frontrunner for the role, and Warsh himself advised Trump not to fire Powell before his term was due to expire.
Kevin Warch is an academic without real trading experience who has been part of the revolving door between Wall Street and Washington. Warsh, 55, has a hawkish stance on inflation, and although he backs Republican priorities such as reduced taxation and deregulation, he does not fully support Trump’s stance on how the Fed should operate.
Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011, and failed to see the underlying risks that would lead to the 2008 Great Recession. Warsh played a direct role in the negotiations that would later lead to the Lehman Brothers’ downfall, supporting the decision to allow Lehman to fail, spurring global financial panic. “The die was already cast” before bankruptcy, Warsh told CNBC. He failed to grasp the global nature of this decision, which was not a surprise but a deliberate choice to allow the firm to fail.
He was against the central bank’s QE policies in 2010 and warned that it would not aid in economy recovery. He resigned from the Fed’s Board of Governors in 2011 after opposing plans to purchase $600 billion in bonds to push more money into the US economy. Warsh blamed the central bank for enabling reckless government spending during the pandemic by excessively printing money. He sided with Trump in pointing blame at the Fed for permitting inflation to rise in the post-COVID economy. Warsh still believes in managing the economy through intervention, rather than letting the business cycle play out naturally. Tinkering with the system only causes the cycles to become more volatile.
May 7, 2026, is the next major target on the ECM–8.6 years from the August 2017 turning point, and two years from the critical May 2024 benchmark we just passed. Something historic is brewing for May 2026.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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