Interview: Gold, Stocks, Geopolitical & Dollar Surge


Posted originally on Sep 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Coffee Prices on the Rise


Posted originally on Sep 19, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Coffee

Coffee prices are the latest grocery item troubling American consumers. The United States is the world’s largest importer of coffee, but produces less than 0.1% of all coffee for domestic consumption, importing over $8.2 billion (1.6 metric tons) of coffee last year alone. The average retail price of coffee spiked 21% in the past year, marking the sharpest rise since the late 1990s.

Tariffs are certainly part of the problem. Brazil produces around 37% of the world’s coffee, but now faces a 50% tariff on coffee beans. The average price of Brazilian coffee now sits around $6 per pound. Brazil also experienced a depleted harvest in 2024-25 due to drought and unfavorable weather conditions. The harvest was 9% beneath traditional levels. Global production rose by 4.3 million bags, but was offset by lower stocks, and prices remained high. The US spent $1.41 billion last year on Brazilian coffee alone, and a 50% tariff in addition to increased prices is causing grocers and retailers to raise prices.

Brazil and Colombia primarily focus on Arabica beans, with Colombia being America’s second-highest importer. In far contrast to Brazil, Colombia’s tariff sits at 10%. Still, the US purchased $1.4 billion in coffee beans from Colombia last year and any levy will be felt by consumers. Colombia’s 2024-25 coffee harvest was extremely robust at 13.2 million bags, a 23% increase from the previous year. Farmers believe production will fall by 5.3% in the coming harvest due to weakening La Nina conditions and heavy rain.

Vietnam supplies 17% of the world’s coffee, but the US mainly relies on South America for imports. Vietnam’s tariff sits at 20% and many roasters have complained that this is affecting their bottom line. Same with Indonesia, which has a 19-32% levy.

Brazilian coffee exports to the US have fallen by nearly 46% since tariffs were imposed. While the US consumed 15% of Brazilian coffee exports, Germany was close behind at 14% and has surpassed the US to become the top buyer. It is undeniable that tariffs on Brazil have caused a spike in US coffee prices, which has been exacerbated by a weak harvest.

Fed Rate Cuts – All About Jobs


Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

US Unemployment Y Arrary 12 10 24

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower rates by 25 bps at the September meeting, citing “that downside risks to employment have risen.” I reported in December 2024 that the computer had forecast a decline in employment during the incoming Trump Administration.

Based on the most recent data, the unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, while the measure of discouraged and underemployed workers remains steady at 7.7%. Per usual, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its calculations for previous months. August’s growth whittled down to 78,000, and September’s calculation came in at 223,000, marking a total decline of 112,000 reported jobs in those two months.

Unemployment began to rise during the Biden Administration. In fact, not a single job in the private sector was created during the Biden Administration. People blame Trump’s deportation and DOGE efforts for a declining workforce, but that is certainly not the problem. Data indicates that citizens are beginning to rapidly fill roles once taken by migrants. Tariffs are not the problem either, as companies are not hiring for the short term.

Unemployment Y 8 2 24

Workforce softness often leads to lower rates as the Fed mistakenly believes that cheaper borrowing costs will ignite business investment, consumer spending, and strengthen businesses to the point that they need additional employees. Borrowing costs are not the reason why companies are not hiring. CONFIDENCE is the problem, as businesses do not foresee expansion in the near-term, as consumers are grappling with massive debt and an increased cost of living.

The number of unemployed Americans now outnumbers available job openings. Data from July show 7.24 million unemployed Americans compared to 7.18 million job openings, marking the first time that the unemployed have outnumbered the number of available jobs since April 2021. Companies are outsourcing work to places like India or places where humans work with automated AI. Rising wages and regulations, topped with inflation and ever-rising taxes, have created an unfavorable business environment.

Companies are not looking to expand when they are working to stay afloat. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future.

We have a Directional Change in 2026, which is an important near-term turning point. Look forward, and we see 2032 as a Panic Cycle with Directional Changes. The 2029/2030 period looks to be dominated by turmoil. Based on the model, unemployment will spike in the next year to nearly 7%. We are nowhere near Great Depression levels, but there will be a notable uptick in unemployment, coinciding with Panic Cycles globally in nearly every market.

Fed Cuts 25BPS


Posted originally on Sep 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Federal Reserve Bank

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, setting the new target range at 4 percent to 4.25 percent. The Fed statement was clear, with one dissenter, Stephen Miran, who recently joined.

“Recent indicators suggest that the growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” the FOMC said in a statement.

The market was widely expecting a 25 basis point cut in rates, as our computer has been forecasting for months that any cut would be in September, not before. However, there were the typical groups of questionable analysts touting that a 50 basis point cut could lead to a more significant market rally.

With the prospect of war on the horizon and a sovereign debt crisis brewing in the EU, there are realistic expectations for a continued decline. The risk is that Trump will interfere in the Fed, leading to a loss of confidence worldwide, which would result in unrealistic interest policy into early 2026. There remains the risk of another cut during the next quarter.

Fed Discoint CBDR Q 9 17 25

Quarterly vs Semi-Annual Earnings Reports


Posted originally on Sep 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Balance Sheet

President Donald Trump believes that companies should cease reporting on a quarterly basis and switch to semiannual reports instead. Trump said that the concept is “subject to SEC approval” and would “save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies.”

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett also once voiced support for semiannual reporting. “In our experience, quarterly earnings guidance often leads to an unhealthy focus on short-term profits at the expense of long-term strategy, growth and sustainability,” the pair wrote in an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal in 2018.

The SEC currently has a 3-1 Republican voting majority, but why does this seem to be a bipartisan issue? The issue is global, in fact, as Norway’s sovereign wealth fund recently proposed switching to semiannual reporting, and the UK and Europe do not currently require quarterly reports. Providing the consumer and investor with less, infrequent information alludes to bad news. Companies would willingly share praise of quarterly earnings with the public if they were bullish on their future, but in the current stagflationary trend, companies are cautious. Those at the top are losing confidence in their company’s ability to meet or exceed expectations.

Dimon and Buffett argued that the public’s attention should be on the long-term results. That aligns with Buffett’s buy and hold strategy but does not work for most portfolios that require investment strategy changes based on incoming data. In Trump’s personal predicament, the price adjustments due to tariffs are a reason to halt quarterly reporting.

Still, lowering transparency raises market risk, and the markets do not respond well to volatility. Columbia Law School published an article that looked at the 2017 regulatory adjustment on the Tel-Aviv Exchange (TASE) when small-cap firms switched from mandatory quarterly reports to semi-annual updates. “The  stocks of firms that chose that option dropped an average of 2 percent in price in a window of (-5,+5) days,” the analysis found. “Conversely, the stock of firms that chose to continue quarterly reporting rose an average of 2.5 percent over an immediate window of (-5,+5) days.”

The study also noted that while compliance costs dropped by 19.8% by eliminating two annual reports, the firms that chose to maintain four annual reports did not see a significant change in audit fees. There was a clear trade-off between cost reduction and maintaining investor confidence, the study noted.

The US markets cannot be compared to the TASE, and that 2% reduction in investment would likely rise for US firms, as consumer confidence is absolutely paramount. The proposition of semi-annual reports stems from the belief that companies will be unable to provide optimistic earnings reports. Reducing reporting fees is not the concern, and the repercussions are vast as massive portfolio shifts would ensue as investors and money managers need to reduce risks and would be less likely to take short-term risks if the data is unavailable to them. Reducing transparency would shake up confidence in the markets overall, and as mentioned, capital does not like volatility.

Interview with Daniel Estulin


Posted originally on Sep 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Ep 3723a – Is Gold Telegraphing What Is Happening? Trump Is Resetting The World Economy


Posted originally on Rumble By X 22 Report on: September 4, 2025

China Unveils New Weapons During Historic Parade


Posted originally on Sep 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

China’s military parade was historic in size, spectators, and weaponry. Known as a leader in technology, President Xi used his moment on the world stage to showcase China’s military advancements, which span from land to air and sea.

The Dong Feng 5C is a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of launching a dozen warheads with a global strike range of over 20,000 kilometers. This is perhaps the most dangerous weapon on display, providing China with the ability to strike any nation in the world with a nuclear explosive.

Hypersonic Missiles (YJ-15, YJ-17, YJ-19, YJ-20, YJ-21 “Carrier Killer”) were also on display. These swiftly maneuverable, high-speed missiles are designed to evade traditional defenses. It is believed that these weapons could evade America’s most advanced aircraft carriers and naval vessels.

DongFeng

The HQ-29 Space Defense System is designed to destroy satellites. This specific weapon is part of China’s broader plan to eventually militarize space.

Extra-large Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles (XLUUVs), especially the AJX002 Sea Drone—an underwater drone designed for reconnaissance missions and spying. The underwater drone can operate fully autonomously and is allegedly not easily detectable by radar systems. Not to be outdone, the JL-1 and JL-3 Air- and Submarine-launched Nuclear Missiles are part of China’s triad nuclear program, capable of striking enemies from any angle.

Robot Soldier

AI drones and robot dogs were one of the most highly discussed weapons on display. These “robot wolves” come equipped with cameras and guns. They could assist infantry units in battle, carry equipment, or carry out surveillance missions. Think back to the US Navy SEAL raid that allegedly killed bin Laden. Those trained Belgian Malinois played an essential role in taking down the world’s most wanted terrorist. These robot wolves would have the ability to operate even more efficiently and effectively in herds.

AI is at the forefront of modern warfare. Nuclear weapons no longer require strategic positioning to hit a target and cause mass casualties. Unleashing these weapons, using them against fellow humans, would create an unrecognizable planet and permanently alter humanity. Those cheering for warfare underestimate the sheer destruction that modern technology will unleash.

Patrick K. O’Donnell Commemorates Those Who Fought In The Battle Of Brooklyn 249 Years


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: August 29, 2025

Can We Alter the Cycles?


Posted originally on Aug 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Checkmate 2

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have come to understand that your cross in life is that you created a computer that always beats you. That must be a strange feeling to play chess, and it always puts you in checkmate. You are correct. The EU will never allow Zelensky to agree to peace. His purpose is to create World War III, and Socrates is always correct.

WS

Reduce Amplitude

REPLY: Yes, I have come to accept that I cannot defeat my own computer. My only remaining hope is that if I scream loud enough, perhaps, just maybe, I can reduce the amplitude which was the excuse of locking us all down during COVID (Except Florida) to “flatten the curve.” I cannot do this alone. We need to get as many people screaming, let NATO self-destruct, and stay the hell out of this European War.