Passion for Politics Meets the Story of Christmas


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Join Bill Whittle, Scott Ott, Stephen Green and the Members and fans of this show on a 3-night cruise in May 2020. Reserve your cabin now at https://BillWhittleCruise.com —– Why do you even care about politics — a distant enterprise, operated by people you don’t really know, arguing about things that often don’t even impact you? The passion for politics, that inner drive that keeps you on fire with emotion, has a reason. Scott Ott has a theory that ties your desire for good governance to the story of Christmas. Right Angle comes to you 20-times each month thanks to our Members. Meet them and unlock new levels of engagement by becoming a one of us at https;//BillWhittle.com/register/ Listen to audio versions of this show at https://bit.ly/BWN-Podcasts Ask Alexa to play Bill Whittle Network on TuneIn Radio , or watch Bill Whittle Network on your Fire TV

The Poorest 20% of Americans Are Richer on Average Than Most Nations of Europe


A groundbreaking study by Just Facts has discovered that after accounting for all income, charity, and non-cash welfare benefits like subsidized housing and Food Stamps—the poorest 20% of Americans consume more goods and services than the national averages for all people in most affluent countries. This includes the majority of countries in the prestigious Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), including its European members. In other words, if the U.S. “poor” were a nation, it would be one of the world’s richest.

Notably, this study was reviewed by Dr. Henrique Schneider, professor of economics at Nordakademie University in Germany and the chief economist of the Swiss Federation of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises. After examining the source data and Just Facts’ methodology, he concluded: “This study is sound and conforms with academic standards. I personally think it provides valuable insight into poverty measures and adds considerably to this field of research.”

The “Poorest” Rich Nation?

In a July 1st New York Times video op-ed that decries “fake news” and calls for “a more truthful approach” to “the myth of America as the greatest nation on earth,” Times producers Taige Jensen and Nayeema Raza claim that the U.S. has “fallen well behind Europe” in many respects and has “more in common with ‘developing countries’ than we’d like to admit.”

“One good test” of this, they say, is how the U.S. ranks in the OECD, a group of “36 countries, predominantly wealthy, Western, and Democratic.” While examining these rankings, they corrupt the truth in ways that violate the Times’ op-ed standards, which declare that “you can have any opinion you would like,” but “the facts in a piece must be supported and validated,” and “you can’t say that a certain battle began on a certain day if it did not.”

A prime example is their claim that “America is the richest country” in the OECD, “but we’re also the poorest, with a whopping 18% poverty rate—closer to Mexico than Western Europe.” That assertion prompted Just Facts to conduct a rigorous, original study of this issue with data from the OECD, the World Bank, and the U.S. government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. It found that the Times is not merely wrong about this issue but is reporting the polar opposite of reality.

Poor Compared to Who?

The most glaring evidence against the Times’ rhetoric is a note located just above the OECD’s data for poverty rates. It explains that these rates measure relative poverty within nations, not between nations. As the note states, the figures represent portions of people with less than “half the median household income” in their own nations—and thus—”two countries with the same poverty rates may differ in terms of the relative income-level of the poor.”

The upshot is laid bare by the fact that this OECD measure assigns a higher poverty rate to the U.S. (17.8%) than to Mexico (16.6%). Yet, World Bank data shows that 35% of Mexico’s population lives on less than $5.50 per day, as compared to only 2% of people in the United States.

Hence, the OECD’s poverty rates say nothing about which nation is “the poorest.” Nonetheless, this is exactly how the Times misrepresented them.

The same point applies to broader discussions about poverty, which can be measured in two very different ways: (1) relative poverty or (2) absolute poverty. Relative measures of poverty, like the one cited by the Times, can be misleading if the presenter does not answer the question: “Poor compared to who?” Absolute measures, like the number of people with income below a certain level, are more straightforward and enlightening.

Unmeasured Income and Benefits

To accurately compare living standards across or within nations, it is necessary to account for all major aspects of material welfare. None of the data above does this.

The OECD data is particularly flawed because it is based on “income,” which excludes a host of non-cash government benefits and private charity that are abundant in the United States. Examples include but are not limited to:

  • healthcare provided by Medicaid, free clinics, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program.
  • nourishment provided by Food Stamps, school lunches, school breakfasts, soup kitchens, food pantries, and the Women’s, Infants’ & Children’s program.
  • housing and amenities provided through rent subsidies, utility assistance, and homeless shelters.

The World Bank data includes those items but is still incomplete because it is based on government “household surveys,” and U.S. low-income households greatly underreport both their income and non-cash benefits in such surveys. As documented in a 2015 paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives entitled “Household Surveys in Crisis”:

  • “In recent years, more than half of welfare dollars and nearly half of food stamp dollars have been missed in several major” government surveys.
  • There has been “a sharp rise” in underreporting of government benefits received by low-income households in the United States.
  • This “understatement of incomes” masks “the poverty-reducing effects of government programs” and leads to “an overstatement of poverty and inequality.”

Likewise, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis explains that such surveys “have issues with recalling income and expenditures and are subject to deliberate underreporting of certain items.” The U.S. Census Bureau says much the same, writing that “for many different reasons there is a tendency in household surveys for respondents to underreport their income.”

There is also a wider lesson here. When politicians and the media talk about income inequality, they often use statistics that fail to account for large amounts of income and benefits received by low- and middle-income households. This greatly overstates inequality and feeds deceptive narratives.

Relevant, Reliable Data

The World Bank’s “preferred” indicator of material well-being is “consumption“ of goods and services. This is due to “practical reasons of reliability and because consumption is thought to better capture long-run welfare levels than current income.” Likewise, a 2003 paper in the Journal of Human Resources explains that:

  • “research on poor households in the U.S. suggests that consumption is better reported than income” and is “a more direct measure of material well-being.”
  • “consumption standards were behind the original setting of the poverty line,” but governments now use income because of its “ease of reporting.”

The World Bank publishes a comprehensive dataset on consumption that isn’t dependent on the accuracy of household surveys and includes all goods and services, but it only provides the average consumption per person in each nation—not the poorest people in each nation.

However, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis published a study that provides exactly that for 2010. Combined with World Bank data for the same year, these datasets show that the poorest 20% of U.S. households have higher average consumption per person than the averages for all people in most nations of the OECD and Europe:

Average Consumption Per Person in OECD Nations, 2010

The high consumption of America’s “poor” doesn’t mean they live better than average people in the nations they outpace, like Spain, Denmark, Japan, Greece, and New Zealand. This is because people’s quality of life also depends on their communities and personal choices, like the local politicians they elect, the violent crimes they commit, and the spending decisions they make.

For instance, a Department of Agriculture study found that U.S. households receiving Food Stamps spend about 50% more on sweetened drinks, desserts and candy than on fruits & vegetables. In comparison, households not receiving Food Stamps spend slightly more on fruits & vegetables than on sweets.

Nonetheless, the fact remains that the privilege of living in the U.S. affords poor people with more material resources than the averages for most of the world’s richest nations.

Another important strength of this data is that it is adjusted for purchasing power to measure tangible realities like square feet of living area, foods, smartphones, etc. This removes the confounding effects of factors like inflation and exchange rates. Thus, an apple in one nation is counted the same as an apple in another.

To spot check the results for accuracy, Just Facts compared the World Bank consumption figure for the entire U.S. with the one from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. They were within 2% of each other. All of the data, documentation, and calculations are available in this spreadsheet.

In light of these facts, the Times’ claim that the U.S. has “more in common with ‘developing countries’ than we’d like to admit” is especially far-fetched. In 2010, even the poorest 20% of Americans consumed 3 to 30 times more goods and services than the averages for all people in a wide array of developing nations around the world:

Average Consumption Per Person in Developing Nations, 2010

These immense gaps in standards of living are a major reason why people from developing nations immigrate to the U.S. instead of vice versa.

Why Is the U.S. So Much Richer?

Instead of maligning the United States, the Times could have covered this issue in a way that would help people around the world improve their material well-being by replicating what makes the U.S. so successful. However, that would require conveying the following facts, many of which the Times has previously misreported:

  • High energy prices, like those caused by ambitious “green energy” programs in Europe, depress living standards, especially for the poor.
  • High tax rates reduce incentives to work, save, and invest, and these can have widespread harmful effects.
  • Abundant social programs can reduce market income through multiple mechanisms—and as explained by President Obama’s former chief economist Lawrence Summers, “government assistance programs” provide people with “an incentive, and the means, not to work.”
  • The overall productivity of each nation trickles down to the poor, and this is partly why McDonald’s workers in the U.S. have more real purchasing power than in Europe and six times more than in Latin America, even though these workers perform the same jobs with the same technology.
  • Family disintegration driven by changing attitudes toward sex, marital fidelity, and familial responsibility has strong, negative impacts on household income.
  • In direct contradiction to the Times, a wealth of data suggests that aggressive government regulations harm economies.

Many other factors correlate with the economic conditions of nations and individuals, but the above are some key ones that give the U.S. an advantage over many European and other OECD countries.

Summary

The Times closes its video by claiming that “America may once have been the greatest, but today America, we’re just okay.” In reality, the U.S. is so economically exceptional that the poorest 20% of Americans are richer than many of the world’s most affluent nations.

Last year, the Times adopted a new slogan, “The truth is worth it.” Yet, in this case and others, it has twisted the truth in ways that can genuinely hurt people. The Times makes other spurious claims about the U.S. in this same video, which will be deflated in future articles.

Bank of England will Remain Outside of the Eurozone


QUESTION: Dear Martin,
I am a follower of your blog since I saw your film on a plane coming back from the US. Recently I purchased access to the private blog because I find priceless the nonbiased information you share with us.
I am a middle-class European guy, with no investment, only a bit of money on the bank. I read your post about currency canceling in 2021 and got really scared.
It is really difficult for me to open a bank account in the US, so I tried to move money to an online bank in the UK and put it in US dollars.
My question is: Would it be enough to move money from a Spanish bank to the UK and put it on a US dollar basis? Or the UK will not be safe anyway…
Thank you so much for what you do. Reading your blog is the best way to open the mind…

Best regards,
AAA

ANSWER: Now that the British election took place and the Conservatives won a majority, it is safe to say that the UK will leave the EU. So there should be no problem with the British banks getting caught up in the overall banking crisis in the EU. The Bank of England is independent of the ECB and will act accordingly to the domestic economy. The issue is inside the Eurozone

“Manipulating the World Economy” – NOW AVAILABLE


“Manipulating the World Economy” is now available on Amazon for pre-order. Amazon expects the book to be in stock on Christmas day, but you can purchase your copy of the book today. We do not control when Amazon lists the book and we have no idea how long it will last in stock. The price was kept low at $95 to enable everyone of all means to be able to purchase the book. This is already the second edition – 466 pages completely illustrated in full color.

Italian Bank Still in Trouble


Italy is again helping a troubled bank. The government approved an emergency ordinance to support the Volksbank Popolare di Bari on Sunday and provided grants of up to 900 million euros. Volksbank Popolare di Bari was founded in 1960 as a cooperative bank. However, funds from the Ministry of Finance will not go directly to the bank because of the no-bailout policy in Europe. Instead, the capital of the state development bank Banca del Mezzogiorno-Mediocredito Centrale (MCC) is to be increased and this combined with the deposit guarantee fund FITD. This new scheme is indirectly restructuring of the Volksbank Popolare di Bari.

In recent years, the Italian state has repeatedly had to bailout banks, including the Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), which is the oldest bank in the world. Because of the long-standing economic downturn, the banks in Italy still have bad loans on the books because Europe refused to engage in a bailout as was the case in the United States. Instead, the ECB kept lowering rates in the hope that the banks would make up the losses. But the economy has never recovered beyond just superficial images. The bank’s losses have reached one billion euros. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte reiterated on Sunday that everything will be done to protect savers and hold those responsible accountable, but those responsible are running the ECB.

Within the European Union, bank deposits up to 100,000 euros per customer are legally protected. In the case of Bari, however, according to press reports, there are around 70,000 small savers who have not invested their money in savings accounts but have invested in share certificates in the bank. These small shareholders could face total loss if the bank collapsed. This would also have serious social impacts in the Mezzogiorno region.

Obviously, our European readers should NOT own ANY bank stocks in Europe. Get out before you lose 100% in these bail-in actions.

Central Banks Buying More Equities than Gold? Why?


QUESTION: Marty; It seems when Goldman Sachs makes a recommendation, it tends to be the kiss of death. They came out and said the stock market was going to crash at the end of 2017 just before it broke out. Now they are pitching gold but they have been the ones who controlled the warehouses. They are claiming the central banks are the buyers so that is an indication of a bull market. Any comments on Goldman’s analysis?

HC

ANSWER: Yes, it often seems to be the old trick that was played by the Salomon Brothers. Their analysts would be quoted widely touting to buy some bond and they were inevitably the sellers. Goldman said cash was king in November 2018, not stocks. Five of the top investors in 2018 all said the stock market would crash as reported in Money Magazine. Goldman was bearish if Trump won, as reported by the New York Times on October 31, 2016. Even Goldman Sachs told everyone to sell in 2019. This is the problem when you put out forecasts based upon fundamentals. They are just sophistry, for you can spin them any way you like. How many times have we heard a stock declines on positive news and the excuse is that the street was looking for better numbers.

Goldman Sachs’ new claim saying “gold’s strategic case still strong” pointing to central bank buying is highly questionable. It is a statement that seems to be a half-truth. Because the euro is paying a negative interest rate, the only way for central banks to diversify has been to buy gold and equities. Otherwise, all they have are dollars. There are people on the board at the European Central Bank proposing that they too begin to buy equities in Europe.

The amount of gold added to central bank portfolios was tiny in comparison to equities. They bought more than $1 trillion of equities in 2018. The central banks bought only about $57 billion of gold in the past 3 years. This story is very misleading. It makes it sound like gold is being bought because the banks know the dollar will crash. The truth is so far from the implications.

If you are going to pretend to make a forecast based upon fundamentals, then tell the FULL story and do not leave out the other parts

The British Elections & US 2020 Election


There has always been a very interesting correlation between British politics and American. Margaret Thatcher became Prime Minister on the 4th of May 1979. Ronald Reagan was elected on November 4, 1980. The BREXIT referendum took place on the 23rd of June 2016. Donald Trump was elected on November 8, 2016. The political trends have begun in Britain and then spread to the United States like a financial contagion. That makes perfect sense because the political trends are indeed set in motion by economics.

Now we have the December 12th British election with the end result was a crushing defeat of socialism in British history. Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party would have a majority of nearly 80 seats, which is the largest Tory margin since the days of Margaret Thatcher. Meanwhile, what took place on the opposite side was the worst result since the 1930s for Labour. We may indeed see the same outcome with the Democrats who can’t seem to come up with a middle of the road candidate.

Despite the fake news promoting socialism and climate change, the Labour Party could not deter the true sentiment underlying the trend these days – the people are fed up with the same promises from politicians that never seem to materialize. Promising to tax the rich never seems to lower the taxes for anyone else. All it ever does is line the pockets of politicians and in the process still leads to highs costs and a lower standard of living for the average person. Nobody ever proposes lowering the cost of government. It just borrows more and more and never pay anything off.

While in Britain the immediate consequence is that, for the first time since the referendum of 2016, there can no longer be any question that the British people want to leave the European Union. The politicians have been lying to the people all along. The truth is that the people would be subjected to absolute tyranny from Brussels for they would have no right to vote where they would ever be able to change the policies impacting their lives. The European Commission never stands for election and the European Parliament has no power to draft laws.

The impact for the British election is a warning sign that the Democrats have lost their way just as Jeremy Corbyn of Labour who was forced to step down as the leader of the Labour Party. The promises of Corbyn similar to that of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. If the Democrats continue down this path of socialism, our computer is warning that they too will suffer the same fate and as I have made clear, there remains a serious risk that the Democratic Party will self-destruct, split between moderate Democrats and the extreme left who seem to be drunk their own fake news and like Labour, assume the people are too stupid to figure out the truth.

Guyana & the Future


QUESTION: Hi Martin, thanks for including little Guyana in your blog today. I was born in Canada, but my parents emigrated from Guyana decades ago. I haven’t been back yet. Nevertheless, I am eager to see great things become of the country, have been tracking the oil industry developments there, and am invested in it as well. I want to see this country elevate out of poverty as a result of all of this but I am concerned about lack of strong and moral leadership and corruption. If you don’t mind me asking, what makes you so confident that democracy will rule out? Growth is growth, but all we have to do is look across the pond to Africa to see the mix of growth and corruption!
Thanks as always sir – your teachings and insights have reshaped me many times over.
Regards, D

ANSWER: I am not certain that Guyana will be the perfect democracy. South America has historically had a problem with corruption in government. The US sanctions against Venezuela are really stupid. The economy was turning down dramatically and the government has done everything possible against the people. The US sanctions merely give people an excuse to point to the US as the cause of the economic decline despite the fact that the sanctions were put on in response to the events and not before them. I am opposed to sanctions anyhow because they never seem to work. They boosted the support for Putin instead of causing the people to blame Putin. This is really brain dead.

Nevertheless, simply because you can invest in Guyana is a major difference in comparison to Venezuela. There will be corruption. That seems to be systemic in South/Latin America, but it is also a rising problem globally. Hopefully, they will still keep the free market as long as they get their fair share under the table unlike Venezuela. We have added the currency to Socrates.

Manipulating the World Economy – COMING SOON


“Manipulating the World Economy” has been printed and shipped to Amazon. We are hoping to have the links up for Christmas. I have tried to make this an interesting textbook on the world economy and how it functions. Every page of this hardcover book is printed in full color. I have illustrated everything I could get my hands on, including old newspaper articles from contemporary events, so you can read what I read. This illustrates the problems we have with governments and how they have lost control of events going forward.

  

I have tried to cover all the important subjects such as economic theories, Philips’ curve, supply & demand, random walks, defining what is really money, banks and their role in the creation of money, capital flows that overpower domestic policy objectives, taxation, a history of contagions, Modern Monetary Theory, and class warfare – among many more subjects.


These hardbound, full color books will make great Christmas gifts. They will be priced under $100.

(Click on any image above to enlarge)

We will let everyone know the moment they go on sale in Amazon.

The Mother of all Financial Crises


COMMENT: Sir,

While taking a break from reading the Repo Report, I came across these words written by Albert Einstein before he passed away

“Not one statesman in a position of responsibility has dared to pursue the only course that holds out any promise of peace…” he wrote. “For a statesman to follow such a course would be tantamount to political suicide. Political passions, once they have been fanned into flame, exact their victims.”

I fear we are going to crash and burn as you have said

Keep up the good work

DK

REPLY: That is a very good quote. It is so true. All the disinformation circulating around about this Repo Crisis one must question can they really be that stupid? This is really the Mother of all Financial Crises which will impact everything it touches. This will make the 2007-2009 financial crisis look like a trial run.There is no politician who will stand up and talk about this crisis nor will they dare to even ask pertinent questions for fear what will be revealed.

This is why this report does not end with this report alone. We will update it next year as everything unfolds. So it is more like a subscription to this catastrophe.