Armstrong Economics Blog/France
Re-Posted Dec 9, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
France is by no means calming down. There is a major underlying problem in France which is rising to the surface in direct confrontation with the government and Macron’s ambition to lead Europe. Macron’s confrontation with Trump over NATO is a reflection of a historical posture of the French government that has resented both Germany and the United States. Macron had said, “The Atlantic alliance can only be restored in one way, through restoring the unity of Europe.” The twelve founding members set up a headquarters together for the first time in London in 1950.
NATO Headquarters was located at 13, Belgrave Square. The last meeting to be held in London before the move to Paris was on April 1, 1952, which coincided with NATO’s third anniversary. NATO was forced to move its headquarters from Porte Dauphine in Paris, France (the A building for Alliance) following the French withdrawal from NATO, which then moved to Brussels, Belgium in 1967.
Macron did not advocate that France should pull out of NATO as was the case under President de Gaulle. Indeed, de Gaulle did withdraw France from NATO’s military structure in 1966, yet it remained an Ally. Macron has been also pushing for a European Army. Clearly, Macron’s agenda has been to federalize Europe and that is clashing with the people. He is NOT a proponent in having the USA a major part of NATO according to reliable sources.
Macron has been pushing economic reforms to curtail the social benefits in France in his effort to federalize Europe. In protest of his planned reforms in the pension system, the unions have organized several general strikes, which are now being joined by the yellow vests. This has resulted in bringing in hundreds of thousands of protesters to the streets. The problem which Macron faces is that France’s economic performance can no longer finance the generous welfare state which is far beyond international standards.
Everything points to a major political crisis brewing i9n France and there is talk that perhaps France should also now move to exit the EU – FREXIT. According to Harris Interactive poll taken 26–28 of November 2019, Macron has a favorable rating of only 39% and a disproval rating of 61%. His push to federalize Europe may be his undoing. Macron admitted in January 2018 that if the French people were given a right to vote of FREXIT, a simple yes / no response to such a complex question, the French would “probably” have voted for FREXIT.
There is no question that there remains a serious risk that FREXIT can also be on the horizon for the driving force is the collapsing economic structure of socialism. American politicians will one day face the very same crisis. All the promises of benefits are coming to an end