Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Consumer sentiment remained elevated for the second consecutive month but remains worse than in December 2024, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. Sentiment rose 1.6% in July from June, reaching a reading of 61.7 from 60.7. However, overall sentiment has been 17% beneath December’s reading, although it rebounded from April’s low when the market experienced a sharp downturn due to tariff fears.
“Although recent trends show sentiment moving in a favorable direction, sentiment remains broadly negative,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in the report. “Consumers are hardly optimistic about the trajectory of the economy, even as their worries have softened since April 2025.”
Inflationary fears declined for the second consecutive month as well, dropping from 5% in June to 4.5% in July after peaking at 6.6% in May, again, as a result of tariff uncertainty. Consumers believe inflation will wane in the long run for the third consecutive month, with the figure declining from 4% in June to 3.4% in July, which marks the lowest reading in 2025.
The Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by the Conference Board, rose 2 points to 97.2 in July, and June’s figure was revised to 95.2. The short-term outlook on the Expectations Index rose 4.5 points to 74.4, yet has been below the recession threshold of 80 since February. Business and labor market conditions, as measured by the Present Situation Index, fell 1.5 points to 131.5.
Yet, the Kansas City Fed noted that consumer sentiment is no longer an accurate reading for consumer spending. “Recent data suggest consumer sentiment has been declining for the past several months, signaling a potential slowdown in spending. However, most measures of actual spending, such as core retail sales and PCE, have remained relatively stable. This discrepancy raises the question of how useful consumer attitudes are in predicting actual spending,” the Fed questioned, later concluding, “Consistent with evidence from the prior 30 years, the near-term outlook for spending growth looks similar regardless of whether we account for the recent weakening in consumer sentiment.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also stated “the link between sentiment data and consumer spending has been weak. It’s not been a strong link at all…it wouldn’t be the case that we’re looking at [consumer sentiment] and just completely dismissing it. But it’s another reason to wait and see.”
Consumers are continually pessimistic, albeit less so, as prices remain elevated. We saw a sharp downturn in consumer sentiment with the peak in inflation during 2022. However, regardless of how one feels about the economy, consumers are forced to spend more on less. The FOMC will no longer use consumer sentiment as a strong gauge for future spending or GDP calculations since the correlation remains weak.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
US employers have reduced their workforce more in the first seven months of 2025 than in all of 2024. The DOGE cuts to the public sector were the primary driver of layoffs; however, there has been a notable drop in retail and technology positions in the private sector.
July alone saw 62,000 jobs reduced from the workforce, a 30% increase from June and 140% from July 2024. Over 806,000 positions were removed from January to July, surpassing the 761,358 job cuts in all of 2024.
Public sector positions in government saw the largest reduction at 292,294 positions. The current administration implemented the largest public sector reduction in modern US history by offering over 2 million government employees a buyout. Around 65,000 people accepted the buyout offer within the first two weeks alone. Additionally, DOGE halted grant funding to various NGOs and non-profits, leading to 17,826 fires, which amounts to a 413% annual reduction. None of these positions contributed to the US GDP.
The private sector shed 33,000 positions in June 2025, marking the first contraction in the private sector in nearly two years. For 2025 overall, the sectors facing the steepest layoffs are technology (-89,251) and retail (-80,487).
A few major tech companies implemented large layoffs this year such as Intel (-21,000), Microsoft (-15,000), PayPal (-2,500), and HP (-2,000). The advancement of Artificial Intelligence has led to a drastic reduction in workers in the technology sector, with some reports believing that AI is replacing around 491 tech jobs per day. We’ve seen a 36% decline in tech jobs this year compared to last as technology advances. Another issue has been outsourcing positions to places like India. The US outsourced 300,000 tech-based jobs overall to India as offshoring trends continue. Not only is labor cheaper, but India produces over 1.5 million engineering graduates annually. Visa restrictions have less of an impact as remote work is commonplace.
Retail experienced the second-largest decline in private sector roles with a 249% annual decline. Brick and mortar stores are deteriorating as another casualty of creative destruction as consumers prefer to spend online. Various articles are blaming tariffs and price increases for the drop in retail positions, but consumers are simply spending less. Around 20,000 retail positions were lost to AI automation, especially for basic roles and inventory management. American consumers have never rebounded from the increased cost of living. Credit card delinquencies and bankruptcies continue to reach new highs, and every survey indicates that households are spending more on less and focusing their resources on the basics.
Technology and retail are sensitive to advancements in AI. Offshoring has drastically cut competitiveness for American workers in tech. There is an offshoring corporate tax penalty of 28% but it is safe to assume that this figure will rise. As for AI, the government hasn’t found a way to tax robotic systems, but rest assured they will find a way.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Young Americans know that they are forced to pay into a system that will produce returns. A new study by AARP found that confidence in Social Security has plummeted to a 15-year low. The government has successfully run this Ponzi Scheme for 90 years, but in due time, it will run out of money.
According to the survey, confidence in Social Security fell to 36%, nearing the all-time low of 35% experienced in 2010. Only a quarter of respondents between 18 and 49 expressed confidence in the system, compared to 48% of Americans over 50 who believe they will see a return. Still, 69% of Americans overall felt that Social Security was an important program.
Why? Why must we permit the government to claim a portion of our pay only to redistribute it back to us at a loss? Individuals would receive far greater returns if permitted to independently invest those funds. Similar to tax refunds where the government steals a portion of our pay only to hand it back to us at the end of the fiscal year, Social Security is another interest-free loan for the government that does not benefit the people.
As of June 2025, 53 million retired Americans and 7.1 million Americans with disabilities received Social Security, with the average monthly payment amounting to $2,005. That is not enough to live on anywhere. Yet, 24 million families rely on Social Security as their primary source of income. The aforementioned study found that 78% of people realize that Social Security will not cover their living expenses upon retirement. A quarter of respondents on 50 said that they are not factoring in Social Security payments in their retirement plans as they know the jig is up.
It comes as no surprise that analysts are projecting Social Security to run dry by 2034, aligning closely with the computer’s date of 2032 when the entire world will experience a drastic transformation. Those same analysts believe that the program will need to rely entirely on payroll tax revenue once the general fund becomes depleted.
Social Security cannot survive. Social Security invests 100% in government bonds, meaning it does not earn a fair interest rate. I spoke with Congress in the 90s and urged them to transform it into a wealth fund allocated out among managers. The Democrats voted against the privatization of Social Security. The fund would be more than abundant had it been permitted to invest in equities or anything other than government debt. It never should have been a political decision.
So those deciding not to factor in Social Security payments are wise. Those who feel angered that they must continue paying into this failing system are also awakened to the truth—Social Security is in its final stages until collapse.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: I find it very interesting that Earth passes closest to the densest part of the Taurid stream in late October and early November, when both the Southern and Northern Taurids are active. However, 2032 is predicted to have enhanced activity due to gravitational influences from Jupiter, which can bring more debris into Earth’s path. Some have suggested that an impact of a cosmic event caused the Younger Dryas, perhaps from this Taurid stream, if the Earth were hit by a comet or asteroid impact around 12,900 years ago, which triggered the Younger Dryas that sent the planet into an abrupt cooling lasting about 1,200 years. That would be like a mega volcanic winter. If you divide 12,900 years ago by 8.6, that is precisely 1500 cycles. Since the forecast for the highest intensity in the Taurid stream is 2032, is your computer picking this up?
Jos
ANSWER: The cycle is fractal, like everything within nature. We know that the world dramatically changed about 11,000 years ago. Six waves build into 51.6 years, and six of those build into 309.6 years, with six of those creating waves of 1857.6, and 6 of those take us right to 11,145.6. This is a significant turning point. I cannot dismiss the scientific forecast for 2032, coinciding with the Taurid stream out of hand. I think we do need to pay attention and be prepared to divert such an impact if it becomes obvious. We are headed back into a cooling period – not warming. These nut jobs who want to put dust in the air to reduce global warming will kill most of humanity when a volcano of 7+ erupts on top of their dust.
Posted originally on Aug 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
I have written directly to members of the Trump Administration and received no reply. When you generally write, you get the standard form thanking you for your letter. Not getting even a form letter response tells me they are not allowed to be passed on. The Deep State is still the gatekeeper for correspondence. Even if you write to your Congressman, you get the form letter response, and they will NEVER see your letter if the gatekeeper disagrees. Welcome to democracy.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has also come to realize the reality of Washington. She has said she is surrounded by “deep state actors” within the government who are actively working to undermine the president’s agenda and suppress information. These are the people who think they are defending the Constitution, but they are taking us into World War III.
Naturally, CNN has always to report the opposite. If Trump said the sky is blue, they will call him a liar and report it is red. They are in the pocket of the NEOCONS, even if only the top brass know what the real agenda is. They claim that Gabbard’s actions were a politically motivated attempt to rewrite the history of the Russia investigation, according to CNN. The NEOCONS only look at their hatred of Russia and maintain that they must be wiped off the face of the earth. They ONLY look at that objective and are destroying the United States and Western Civilization.
The National Debt is bloated because of endless wars. This has not benefited society. The corruption feeds only a few in the Military Establishment that President Eisenhow warned us about. The debt is unsustainable, they will demand higher taxes and reduce our living standard all for their endless wars. This one they are cooking up will end the United States. Their debt cannot be sustained, and this is the Sovereign Debt Crisis, all for their hatred of Russians. This is what 2032 is all about. They will bankrupt the West, and the Financial Capital of the World will move to China. Sorry, that is what the computer is projecting. It’s not my opinion. I am just so glad I am not 18 today. While Kinzinger claims we can defeat Russia in 3 days, I do not see any such war that has been finished in 3 days.
Posted originally on Aug 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: This may seem to be a conspiracy theory, but has a double been sent in to pretend he is Trump. The anti-ear old Trump has moved nuclear subs to the border of Russia, and the Telegraph reported that no president has ever played a game of nuclear brinkmanship. Trump looks different and much older since the election. I ask AI if someone could have cloned Trump. This is what it said:
“While theoretically possible, human cloning remains unlikely in the near future due to ethical and scientific barriers. However, advances in genetic engineering (like CRISPR) and biotechnology could change the landscape.”
KL
ANSWER: I fully understand what your suspicions are. I have no rational explanation for the 180-degree turn on war and embracing Zelensky and blaming Putin for everything. It makes no sense. Some have said this is Trump’s ego taking over, where he thinks he is king of the mountain. I don’t think he has been cloned. It may be possible to clone someone as they have accomplished with animals. But they would not be able to catch up by aging it. I would say the only remote possibility would be a double. Granted, when you compare the photos from pre-2024 and 2025, Trump does look older. His hair is turning all grey/white. But that may be just part of the job – it tends to age you rapidly. Many presidents had dark hair and came out grey.
I have spoken to political contacts in DC, and I was told they are hearing the same thing from many people. This is the style of Trump and his ego of using his position against an opponent, but this is not negotiating a trade deal. This is World War III. The danger here is that this is the path to nuclear war rather than conventional warfare. If Trump were to commit troops to Ukraine, then something is seriously wrong, and I would have to question whether he is a double. This is not the Trump I knew in March 2020.
I have publicly stated that Trump is wrong. These types of discussions MUST be by phone, not in public. Once you take to the open press, you will NEVER be able to negotiate, for now your opponent cannot yield or look weak. This is the most fundamental law of diplomacy. I have dealt in geopolitics for decades. When Merkel publicly stated that she intentionally lied and never intended to implement the Minsk Agreement, I was stunned. Europe lost all credibility in any possible negotiation. You only make such a statement if you have ZERO intentions of a peaceful resolution and all you want is war.
Here, Put’s response to Trump calling him crazy publicly showed that Putin understands diplomacy better than Trump. He rebutted, but without naming Trump specifically:
“As for any disappointment felt by anyone, all disappointment stems from excessive expectations. That’s a well-known general rule.” Putin noted that ending Russia’s aggression against Ukraine requires “serious discussions – not in public, but calmly, in the quiet of the negotiation process”.
Putin’s response was that of a dignified leader. Trump’s personal comment calling Putin “crazy” was a blow to diplomacy. This makes me wonder if Trump is being manipulated to sabotage any negotiation, leaving war as the ONLY alternative.
Putin said on Friday in response to Trump’s ultimatums that Moscow has begun production of its newest hypersonic missiles and reaffirmed plans to deploy them to Belarus later this year, posing a threat to neighbouring Ukraine and Europe. He publicly stated that the military already has selected deployment sites in Belarus for the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile.
As the Telegraph has pointed out: “Not even during the Cold War did a US president publicly move nuclear submarines towards Russian waters.”
I can’t even count all the emails coming in asking what the hell is going on with Trump. I will do a private post on what the computer has been showing. I really do not know. The computer has been forecasting that war tensions would begin during the last week of July. The monthly target has been August and September since the beginning of the year.
The EU, US, UK, and Canada agreed on February 26, 2022, to remove select Russian banks from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) messaging system as a sanction in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The disconnection of seven Russian banks—Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank, Bank Rossiya, Sovcombank, Vnesheconombank (VEB), and VTB Bank—took effect on March 12, 2022, as mandated by EU Council Regulation (EU) 2022/345. Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, was later removed from SWIFT as part of the EU’s sixth package of sanctions on June 14, 2022. Gazprombank was spared due to its role in energy payments, reflecting Europe’s reliance on Russian gas.
Nonetheless, this served to intensify the incentive to expand BRICS for geopolitical gamemanship. BRICS was formed in 2006 as BRIC, with Brazil, Russia, India, and China holding their first summit on June 16, 2009, in Yekaterinburg, Russia. South Africa joined in 2010, making it BRICS, with the first expanded summit on April 14, 2011. South Africa saw BRICS as a platform to enhance trade and investment ties with major emerging economies. Joining BRICS elevated South Africa’s global diplomatic stature, giving it a seat at the table with significant powers. Membership provided access to BRICS initiatives like the New Development Bank (NDB), established in 2014, which funds infrastructure and sustainable development projects. China, a key BRICS member, actively supported South Africa’s inclusion to expand the group’s geographic and political reach, particularly into Africa. The US foreign policy has been usurped by the Neocons, like Bliken, and as a result, they have interfered in the world economy for geopolitical power reasons – not economic. This is why after 2032 the financial capital of the world will move to China because the Neocons are only interested in power at the expense of the American people, rule of law, and economy.
When we look at the first turning point on the ECM Wave of the Ukraine Russia War, we come to the typical myopic view of Neocons and how they only look at their objective in front of their nose and nothing else. It was right on schedule when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued his warnings to China about its support for Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine during his visit to Beijing on April 24–26, 2024. He specifically stated publicly on April 26, 2024, in an interview with NPR, that the U.S. had already taken action against over 100 Chinese entities with sanctions and export controls and was prepared to take further measures if China did not curb its supply of dual-use items to Russia. This included machine tools, microelectronics, and optics, which were aiding Russia’s defense industry. Blinken emphasized that China’s actions were “helping fuel the biggest threat” to European security since the Cold War. That is really NATO, but he warned, “If China does not address this problem, we will.” Similar concerns were raised during his meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and President Xi Jinping, where he stressed that China’s support for Russia’s defense industrial base threatened both Ukraine and broader European security.
Donald Trump initiated direct peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict shortly after his second-term inauguration on January 20, 2025. Specifically, on February 12, 2025, Trump held a phone call with Putin, which he described as “highly productive” on Truth Social. This marked the beginning of direct engagement between Trump and Putin on this issue, with further talks facilitated through intermediaries and meetings, such as those in Istanbul in May 2025.
That turning point of May 15th was the precise day of the peace talks in Istanbul. The talks failed that very day. Ukraine wanted a 30-day unconditional cease-fire, which it would have used to replenish its troops, and Russia insisted it had to pull its troops out of the. Ukraine refused, Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, reportedly threatened to seize even more:
Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin “crazy” on May 25, 2025, in response to Russia’s massive drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, which were described as the largest aerial assault of the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump made these remarks in a Truth Social post, stating, “He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” and earlier that day told reporters,“I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin,” expressing frustration over Putin’s escalation despite ongoing peace negotiations.
Putin keeps taking the high road and has not lowered himself to name-calling. Trump’s guy Steven Witkoff spoke positively of Vladimir Putin. He called Putin a “great guy” and “super smart“. Witkoff said, “I liked him, I think he was honest,” and “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy” (see https://www.newsweek.com/steve-witkoff-ukraine-ceasefire-russia-mistake-regions-annexed-vladimir-putin-2049224). All my sources, including people who have met with Putin face to face, all say the same thing. He is one of the smartest men they have ever met. Even Bill Clinton said the same thing.
The media has lied to start EVERY SINGLE WAR because that is what they are there for. Even Tulsi Gabbard found that the CIA project Mockingbird is still active, where the recruited journalists spread their lies. Here is the release of papers to dispel the lies that Putin was an Oligarch. I was in the middle of the plot to seize Russia in 2000, which brought Putin to Power, after I was told that they were blackmailing Yeltsin, demanding he appoint their stooge Boris Berezovsky as the new head of Russia. I know what the scam was, and everything the press says has been an outright lie.
We will address the computer as it forecasts an array of markets that are all anticipating war from now on. Unintended consequences and misjudgments have often triggered wars. A prime example is World War I. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 was meant to advance Serbian nationalist goals, but it spiraled into a global conflict due to a web of alliances and miscalculations. That still exists with NATO today, which pounds its chest claiming it can defeat Russia conventionally because if every NATO member sent in their troops, Russia could be wrecked. That assumes no nukes.
Another case is the Iraq War in 2003. The U.S. invasion, based on faulty intelligence about weapons of mass destruction, aimed to neutralize a perceived threat but led to unintended consequences like regional instability, the rise of insurgent groups, and prolonged conflict. Misjudgments about Iraq’s internal dynamics and the feasibility of nation-building fueled chaos that lasted years.
HAS TRUMP LOST HIS MIND?
The only possible upside of this insane rhetoric is that perhaps the Europeans will get off their ass and demand political change among their leaders, or there may be no TV to watch next year. Has Trump realized that Europe will NEVER accept peace with Russia, so he is pretending to join them for World War III? This is the best possible outcome. Otherwise, I would avoid the major cities and all the military targets. In a nuclear war, you first target your opponent’s military assets. Second, you target the economic assets. Third, you seek to wipe out the major population centers.
Posted originally on Aug 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
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Posted originally on Aug 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
President Donald Trump on Friday blasted former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, saying, “Words are very important, and can often lead to unintended consequences. I hope this will not be one of those instances.” Trum,p then ordered U.S. nuclear submarines to be moved following Medvedev’s comments:
“Trump’s playing the ultimatum game with Russia: 50 days or 10. … He should remember 2 things: 1. Russia isn’t Israel or even Iran. 2. Each new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war,” Medvedev wrote on X. “Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country.”
I’m sorry, but the words that Trump hurls out are equally provocative. I honestly do not know what the hell is going on anymore, other than our computer has always been right, and we are being propelled into World War III with each insult being thrown out there. Europe has made it very clear that it wants to destroy Russia and break it up. Here is Kallas, who just insulted China and has publicly stated that Russia is too big and should be broken up.
Kallas has also made it clear that the EU will not accept any peace deal with Russia. It appears that Trump has now joined the Neocons, and this is propelling us into major war. I voted for Trump, as did most, because he said he was against the Neocons and these endless wars.
Trump has threatened India and any country that buys weapons or energy from Russia with crushing sanctions. I think Medvedev’s statement that each ultimatum is pushing us closer to war, and then Trump redeploys the nuclear subs, is off the wall. He is provoking war, and his actions and ultimatums are not the way to create peace.
The simple answer is to DEMAND that Europe agree to the Minsk Agreement, which they signed. Twice, peace agreements were reached, and TWICE the West refused to honor them. Now these words of war have pushed Russia to the point that there can be no peace deal for there is nobody to even negotiate with.
Zelensky is calling for the West to now engage in regime change. This is an all-out war on Russia. Remove Putin, and you will get Medvedev, who acts more emotionally. This is who the world is now listening to, this so-called leader of Ukraine in high heels. I wish Musk had his flights to Mars. I think it is time to leave, for we have the worst crop of leaders around the world who are all insane.
Trump’s comments are not helping. He is accusing Medvedev of being provocative. I think Trump had better look at the gun that he is threatening with. This is NOT a war the West Will Win! Remember the term Pyrrhic Victory? “I will not survive another victory like this”is attributed to King Pyrrhus of Epirus, following his costly triumph over the Romans at the Battle of Asculum in 279 BC.
Trump said: “I don’t care what India does with Russia.”He added: “They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World.” Trump went further and said that Medvedev “to watch his words” because he is “entering very dangerous territory.”
I had even spoken directly with RFK, and he was against war. Well, don’t worry about the vaccines. You may not need them after 2026.
Trump has cut off all possibility of peace. The computer will be correct. We are headed into World War III, and the West will be confronted by not just Russia, but China, North Korea, and others, who will also turn against these policies.
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