IMF Data, Global Output Contracted in Second Quarter


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 27, 2022 | Sundance 

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) global economic activity, as measured by economic outputs, contracted in the second quarter.  However, when it comes to identifying the cause of the issue, the IMF joins western financial leaders and central banks in playing the game of pretending.

The radical new energy program contained within the Build Back Better agenda, is the root cause of the supply side inflation.  The drop in the production of oil, gas and coal in the same western nations that are following the BBB agenda is origin of the massive spike in energy prices.

Inflation is a major issue, geographically consistent and virtually identical in all the nations who are following the Build Back Better climate change agenda, which is the justification for the energy ‘transition.”  However, not a single leader, central bank or multinational financial institution -including the IMF- will admit the energy policy is the cause of the issue.

(IMF) – The world’s three largest economies are stalling, with important consequences for the global outlook. Inflation is a major concern.

The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook. Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize.

Higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the United States and major European economies, is triggering a tightening of global financial conditions. China’s slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, and there have been further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine. As a result, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year.

[…] In the United States, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy will drive growth down to 2.3 percent this year and 1 percent next year. In China, further lockdowns, and the deepening real estate crisis pushed growth down to 3.3 percent this year—the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic. And in the euro area, growth is revised down to 2.6 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2023, reflecting spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy. (read more)

Notice the IMF does not generate a single word about the western industrialized nations using the climate change issue to justify their Build Back Better energy programs.

The global pretending continues.

It is very weird to keep seeing all of these global institutions ignoring the origin of the global economic issues.  The World Bank will not say it directly, the EU central bank will not say it directly, the U.S. Federal Reserve will not say it directly, the U.S Treasury Dept will not say it directly, nor will the Australians, U.K. or E.U. Central Commission.

Everyone knows what is happening; everyone knows the root causes; yet no one will say it directly.  Instead, they blame ancillary issues and Russia.  It’s all just weird.

Move along folks, pay no attention to over there…. move along, move along…. Look, shiny things….

THIS IS INSANE – Ukraine DEMANDS FREE GAS From Brandon


The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumble on July 26, 2022 

US Military Failing to Meet Recruitment Goals


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jul 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Non-voluntary military recruitment is not off the table in the US. The current Commander in Chief is not patriotic and does not inspire young men to join the military. We abandoned operations in Afghanistan, forced service members to undergo vaccinations, and continue to heighten tensions with foreign nations to a level where another world war is possible.

The US military, under the Biden Administration, has also implemented woke policies that deter future members from enlisting or re-enlisting. Elaine Donnelly, president of the Center for Military Readiness, said prioritizing the woke agenda has alienated the once core conservative, traditional members. “It sends a message that if your son or daughter joins the military, if they’re not of a certain skin complexion or sex, they might be investigated for extremism,” she stated. “They alienated their constituency.”

The Army is now stating that it could fail to reach its recruitment goal by an alarming 25% in 2022. The Army is set to decline by 10,000 troops this year, and an additional 14,000 to 21,000 in 2023. All branches of the military are failing to recruit members, but these figures have not been seen since the end of the Vietnam War. The Army has until September 30 to meet its recruitment goal of 60,000 soldiers. So far, they have only achieved 50% of that figure.

“On the spending issues, Congress should start asking very specific questions about the costs of LGBT mandates, experimental training like the Army Combat Fitness Test (ACFT) fiasco, replacements for personnel discharged due to COVID issues, etc.,” Donnelly stated. “Woke attitudes and mandates are not free.”

Is Europe Sleepwalking into its Demise?


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Jul 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

When the Allies crossed the border to invade Germany as WWII came to an end, the German population hung white sheets from the windows to signify their surrender. Just a few years before, the German people were told to celebrate the prospect of dominating Europe as retribution for the punishment they endured because of the war waged by the leaders before. The Prince of Savoy, who inspired the 2nd Amendment to the US Constitution, warned that war was inevitable because kings held standing armies, and they wanted to use them to get their money’s worth.

Today, the people of Europe were told that the euro would cure all things, even gout, and would lead to Europe surpassing the United States economically. They said the euro would kill the dollar once and for all. How dare this upstart country think it could surpass the majesty of Europe with centuries of history to support it.

Yet today, there is growing bewilderment within Europe. Even Germany has slipped into a disoriented state, with its leaders sleepwalking into a dark fate for Europe. World leaders seem to have forgotten everything from history class, or perhaps they cut that one to smoke a joint outside on campus. They have turned the economic success of generations to rebuild Europe into a declining trend pockmarked with rising authoritarianism. These leaders lack any sense of future other than the raw power they seem to cling to.

Even the Germans settled into a comfortable life, climbing to the top of the economic status within the EU and rising from the ashes with hard work. They were told to believe in their own accomplishments and their superiority within Europe and that their economic system was working perfectly. Sadly, the people were induced with success into a trend of self-deception. Leaders preached changing everything to a new Green world with intoxicating visions of saving the planet as a noble deed. The future would be one of zero emissions and tempered population control.

The people are starting to awaken while their leaders are still sleepwalking into their own destruction. Klaus Schwab believes this is the Fourth Industrial Revolution of AI and technology. His 8 points for 2030 are all really about the end of the Financial Age of endless borrowing with no intention of paying it back. It takes curiosity for innovation, not dehumanizing authoritarianism. The very cornerstone of civilization is we come together because it is mutually beneficial to all. Once we enter the world of Marxist Socialism, those in power have used it to divide us into classes and proclaim they are saints. The powerful are always concerned about only our welfare, which justifies their exercise of brute force. The very purpose of civilization has ceased to exist, warning that cyclically, we must crash and burn until we remember once again what makes a civilization great.

It is true that Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon on January 10, 49 BC (49.02) to purge the corruption in the Republic, but corruption resurfaced. Because he forgave his enemies, they conspired and assassinated him on the Ides of March 44 BC (44.20), just 4.82 years later (250.6 weeks, 62 months). That resulted in another civil war and then the defeat of Mark Antony and Cleopatra at the Battle of Actium in 31 BC. Octavian became emperor officially with the title Augustus on January 16, 27 BC (27.04). The Julian Claudian dynasty ended with the death of Nero on June 9, 68 AD (68.43), lasting 95.47 years. Thus, there is never a permanent new era. There are cycles to everything, and forming the EU was also not something that would endure for 1,000 years and more than the Julio-Claudian Dynasty of Rome.

So while fools really think this New World Order will unfold and the dreams of Schwab will be realized, this idea of perpetual borrowing and kicking the can down the road has already come to an end. This is what Schwab is really saying – you will own nothing and be happy. That is foretelling the end of debt-supported government. They are moving on to the Modern Monetary Theory — print what you need when you need it. However, the sudden rise in inflation currently has caused some to question even this new MMT theory.

So as the West thinks it can wage conventional war and defeat Russia to bring it under the new authoritarian control of the United Nations, they are well aware that Ukraine is the MOST corrupt government in the world. Already, weapons handed to them are being stolen and sold on the black market, as took place in Afghanistan. Instead of people cruising around for five-week holidays, the price of gas is at $10 a gallon in Europe. With the increasing threat of war, the future is anything from comfortable. Europe is awakening to realize that guns and soldiers are once again back in demand. The vast industrial production of Germany that sold its products to consumers is staring at its demise, battling with two foes — climate change and war. Germany can no longer rely upon the industriousness of its people as its leaders try to paint a fairytale version of the future.

We warned at the Europe Conference that those who believed that this New World Order would actually unfold were fools. The consolidation of the world under the authority of the United Nations will never succeed. Unfortunately, a lot of people will die trying to bring this dream to fruition as they did the last time Marxism was attempted.

President Trump Keynote Address to America First Policy Institute, (Video)


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance

Earlier today, President Donald J Trump delivered the keynote address at the America First Agenda summit. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:

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Washington Post Reports DOJ Conducting Grand Jury with Witness Testimony Targeting President Trump for Seditious Conspiracy Against Government


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance 

Do they want a civil war?

It might sound good around the DC cocktail party circuit, whipped into a frenzy by the Lawfare crowd, but the outcome would not be in their interests.

Given the severity of manipulative politics and DC based media in the past several years, I would not take the Washington Post article at face value.

WaPo represents the interests of the Intelligence Community side of the deep state apparatus.

Everything the WaPo creatures write is part of an advanced and coordinated DC engineering effort that has multiple motives; the face value of the one they present is never the real agenda.

We all know why they want Donald Trump removed as a threat to their echo-chambered system of corruption and governmental graft.  The entire DC system, including the Stasi DOJ and FBI state police, is based on financial influence, power, greed and corrupt sales of offices.  Donald Trump always represented a disruption to their scheming and conniving systems.  That motivating truth has never changed.

According to the Washington Post, the DOJ is now putting witnesses in front of a grand jury to solicit evidence to support a “seditious conspiracy” charge against President Trump for attempting to overthrow the United States government and Joe Biden.

WaPo – […] There are two principal tracks of the investigation that could ultimately lead to additional scrutiny of Trump, two people familiar with the situation said, also speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation.

The first centers on seditious conspiracy and conspiracy to obstruct a government proceeding, the type of charges already filed against individuals who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 and on two leaders of far-right groups, Stewart Rhodes and Henry “Enrique” Tarrio, who did not breach the Capitol but were allegedly involved in planning the day’s events.

The second involves potential fraud associated with the false-electors scheme or with pressure Trump and his allies allegedly put on the Justice Department and others to falsely claim that the election was rigged and votes were fraudulently cast.

Recent subpoenas obtained by The Post show that two Arizona state legislators were ordered to turn over communications with “any member, employee, or agent of Donald J. Trump or any organization advocating in favor of the 2020 re-election of Donald J. Trump, including ‘Donald J. Trump for President, Inc.’ ”

No former president has ever been charged with a crime in the country’s history. In cases when investigators found evidence suggesting a president engaged in criminal conduct, as with Richard M. Nixon and Bill Clinton, investigators and successive administrations concluded it was better to grant immunity or forgo prosecution. One goal was to avoid appearing to use government power to punish political enemies and assure the tradition of a peaceful transfer of power. (read more)

One big note of caution on this entire ridiculous narrative… especially as it pertains to the media construct….  Please, keep in mind that Democrats are getting crushed right now by their own constituents.  Democrat politicians are deflated and disillusioned as the people are not happy with the current state of the economy or society overall.

Democrats have been reduced to a small section of the most extreme-leftists and blue-haired suburban leftist women riddled with guilt.  That’s the base now.  Everyone else is demoralized and deflated.  Morale in democrat circles is terrible.

With that in mind, this type of narrative engineering by the political media can also be looked at as an effort to boost morale.  Not much more.

Personally, despite knowing how over-the-top totalitarian these DC people have become, I do not see them wanting armed conflict with more than half of the country.  An attempt to criminally convict President Trump would be the first shot in a civil war.  It would not, and will not, end well.

Wal Mart Lowers Profit Expectations and Highlights Recession Shift in Consumer Behavior


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance 

A key metric in the data released by Wal Mart is not their upfront sales and profit. The recessionary KPI (key performance indicator) is a significant increase in same store sales of 6% (excluding fuel), yet the outcome of that increase in customers is a decrease in profit because the purchases are food.

[Keep an eye on this and we will likely see a similar increase in foot traffic at Aldis]

(VIA NBC) […] Walmart, which is the biggest grocer in the U.S. and often considered a bellwether for the overall economy, said more customers are turning to its stores, which are known for low prices, to fill their pantries and fridges. But they are skipping over general merchandise that they can live without.

Walmart said it now expects same-store sales in the U.S. to rise by about 6% in the second quarter, excluding fuel, as customers buy more food at its stores. That’s higher than the 4% to 5% increase that the company previously expected.  However, that merchandise mix will weigh on the company. Groceries have lower profit margins than discretionary items, such as TVs and clothing.

“The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars,” CEO Doug McMillon said in a news release.  (read more)

Discretionary spending is gone.  Blue-collar and white-collar middle-class consumers are in a financial hunker down mode.  We will see several tiers of socioeconomic strata start to shift down now.  Stores like Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods will become more of a luxury and indulgence.

Consumer confidence continues to drop:

(The Hill) – Consumer confidence slipped for the third straight month in July as sky-high prices dampened demand for products and services, according to a new survey.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, which tracks consumer attitudes and buying intentions, dropped from 98.4 percent last month to 95.7 percent in July, its lowest level since last year. (read more)

As the economic situation continues to unfold, new terminology will be adopted to hide and disguise reality.  As we have just witnessed the White House redefine “recession” so too will they redefine “unemployment” to something like “transitional workers.”

We can expect to see government officials say something akin to, “our transitional workforce may expand for some time as our economy shifts.”  Meaning unemployment may rise as the Green New Deal is implemented by executive fiat.  This is how they operate.

We are in an era of great pretending. [ GO DEEP ] That is our problem. It’s not just what they are doing, it is our willingness to pretend they are not doing it.  As long as denial remains a survival mechanism, because acceptance is just too painful to admit, no corrective action is possible.

Our economy is being intentionally guided into a declining status in order to bring forth the “transition” they desire.

Kamala Harris Clarifies Her Personage During White House Round Table


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance

Just in case you were unaware Ms. Harris wants you to be aware:

“Good afternoon.  I want to welcome these leaders for coming in to have this very important discussion about some of the most pressing issues of our time.  I am Kamala Harris.  My pronouns are “she” and “her.”  I am a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit.”

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The cultural Marxists are working overtime to make people believe this is now the acceptable social norm.  It’s not, it’s just plain weird and goofy.

[Transcript] …”I’ve asked these leaders to come in so that we can discuss these issues and pay attention to the fact that the Dobbs decision and the act of the United States Supreme Court to take away a constitutional right, that had been recognized, from the people of America will impact a lot of people and differently in some situations.  And we need to be responsive to these issues and also lift up the voices of all people who will be impacted and the way that they will be impacted. So that’s why we are convened today.  And I will add a couple of points of the impact in terms of the direct impact that we anticipate there will be from the Dobbs decision”…

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Senator Chuck Grassley Outlines “Systemic Institutional Corruption” Within Dept of Justice and FBI


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 26, 2022 | Sundance 

Yesterday, Senator Chuck Grassley sent a letter [pdf HERE] to Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Chris Wray, notifying them of whistleblower allegations from within the FBI that senior leadership in both Main Justice and FBI are involved in a coordinated effort to cover-up criminal activity related to Hunter Biden.

The whistleblower allegations, in combination with the documented history of DOJ and FBI misconduct, culminate in Senator Grassley stating:

“If these allegations are true and accurate, the Justice Department and FBI are – and have been – institutionally corrupted to their very core to the point in which the United States Congress and the American people will have no confidence in the equal application of the law. Attorney General Garland and Director Wray, simply put, based on the allegations that I’ve received from numerous whistleblowers, you have systemic and existential problems within your agencies.” (LINK)

Unfortunately, what this amounts to, is Senator Grassley is telling Chris Wray and Merrick Garland, the leaders of the institutionally corrupt activity, that they are systemically corrupt. Which is akin to telling a criminal that he is engaged in unlawful conduct.

Our friend Techno Fog breaks down the outlined allegations succinctly HERE.  Absolutely none of the information contained in the allegations is surprising or new to anyone who has followed the details of Main Justice and FBI activity through the past several years.  What Grassley outlines is simply evidence, supportive evidence, of what has been transparently obvious to those who have reviewed the DOJ and FBI conduct.

The U.S. Dept of Justice and FBI are now political institutions that have abandoned their originating mission in order to become the domestic equivalent of the Soviet-era FSB. Their joint targeting mechanisms have been redesigned to support the interests of corrupt DC politicians, specifically the interests of democrats.  Grassley is admitting what has been visible for years.

Senator Grassley is telling the corrupt DOJ-FBI leadership that people in the organizations are outlining the detailed behavior of their corrupt leadership.  However, with zero oversight involved; and with democrats in charge of all committees that would be responsible for such oversight; and with institutional media in alignment and agreement with the corrupt institutional intents of the DOJ/FBI; the frustrating question becomes, “and“?

I mean, who are we kidding?…  If republicans were in charge of the Senate Judiciary, Reform/Oversight, or Intelligence committees, do we really believe that anything would be different?   Before responding to that cynicism remind yourself, they were, for four years, January 2015 through January 2019 republicans were in charge of oversight.

It was exactly when republicans were in charge of Main Justice and FBI oversight, that Main Justice and FBI were targeting political candidate Donald Trump.

The letter from Senate Judiciary Committee ranking member Chuck Grassley, despite the major allegations it contains, carries absolutely no pretense of a process for the systemic institutional corruption it outlines.  Instead, the letter asks AG Merrick Garland and FBI Director Chris Wray to review their own corrupt conduct and/or do a better job of hiding their corrupt activity.

This fundamental flaw in the oversight issue is the Edward Snowden conundrum.  When the intelligence agencies are corrupt, and the heads of the corrupt intelligence agencies are in direct alignment with the corrupt heads of the intelligence agency oversight, where exactly is the whistleblower with evidence of criminal corruption supposed to go?

This is why and how the Fourth Branch of U.S. Government is now the superseding apparatus above all other branches.  {GO DEEP} This is why and how Barack Obama, John Brennan and Eric Holder created it, cemented it, and made it impervious to any effort to remove it.

The Fourth Branch of Government is evil Sauron and Washington DC is Mordor. The J6 committee is creating and dispatching Orcs to defend it.  The corrupt media have aligned with it, and the institutions in/around it are self-aware and fully autonomous.  To mix metaphors and overlay their ability to monitor every single aspect of every life that might seek to challenge or destroy it, Skynet -the end game outlined by Snowden- has been activated.

Read Techno Fog for Details on the Grassley Letter ~

[SEE pdf Here]

Worldwide Inflation in June 2022


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jul 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There is a common misconception that the United States has the highest rate of inflation in the world. I see it questioned in numerous emails The United States does have a major problem when it comes to inflation, but its currency has not depreciated to the point where it is weak. Let us compare data on inflation from other nations.

According to data compiled by Trading Economics, the following countries are suffering the most from runaway inflation as of June 2022:

  1. Lebanon 210%
  2. Zimbabwe 192%
  3. Venezuela 167% (last compiled May 2022)
  4. Sudan 149%
  5. Syria 139% (last compiled in August 2021)
  6. Turkey 62%
  7. Argentina 64%
  8. Suriname 55.6% (last compiled May 2022)
  9. Sri Lanka 54.6%
  10. Iran 52.5%

These depreciated currencies are all but useless at the moment. As we have seen throughout history, the prospect of revolution rises when the people are unable to afford basic needs. Numerous countries on this list are already in the middle of ongoing civil wars and political turmoil. Barter becomes essential as trading goods and services are often the only available option.

Here is how the G20 nations rank as of June 2022:

  1. Turkey 62%
  2. Argentina 64%
  3. Russia 9%
  4. Brazil 89%
  5. Spain 2%
  6. United Kingdom 9.4%
  7. United States 9.1%
  8. Euro Area 8.6%
  9. Netherlands 8.6 %
  10. Canada 8.1%
  11. Italy 8%
  12. Mexico 99%
  13. Germany 7.6%
  14. South Africa 7.4%
  15. India 7.01%
  16. Singapore 6.7%
  17. South Korea 6%
  18. France 8%
  19. Australia 5.1% (compiled in March 2022)
  20. Indonesia 4.35%
  21. Switzerland 3.4%
  22. China 2.5%
  23. Japan 2.4%
  24. Saudi Arabia 2.3%

Turkey tried but failed to gain access into the EU and swap its lira for the euro. They would have been in insurmountable debt regardless, but their initial attempt failed. Is it any wonder that Turkey is trying its best to keep diplomatic relations with both the West and Russia amid the proxy war? They cannot afford to lose trading partners and have failed to impose tough sanctions on Russia. Turkey enjoys its NATO status but attempted to block Finland and Sweden from joining. They cited their reasoning as those countries supported Anti-Turkish terrorist groups, but part of the reason was not to anger Russia.

All of the other G20 nations are experiencing high inflation, none at the common 2% target, but some are faring much better than others as they are not involved in the ongoing proxy war and have maintained strong trade. The US sitting at 9.1% is alarming. As I have warned, other nations will fold before the US as the dollar remains unchallenged.