When Will the Baby Formula Shortage End?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence Re-Posted Aug 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It has been about a month since Abbott Laboratories reopened its formula plant in Michigan, but the US is still in desperate need of baby formula. The plant ceased operations in February after certain formulas were recalled for containing bacteria after infants became sick. Abbott had a huge 40% stake in the formula market within the US. The production plant was supposed to resume operations in June but this was pushed back a month due to flooding in the area. Certain states saw out-of-stock rates near 60% in July, but the national average currently sits at 30%.

The White House secured 17 Operation Fly Formula missions and imported enough powder to make 61 million bottles. The Defense Production Act was revoked to remove some tariffs, but this was a temporary fix. US consumers need enough formula for 65 million bottles per week. Experts now believe that the shortage will last into the fall months.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) failed to act in a prompt manner. Some of the red tape and regulations are to blame. FDA Commissioner Robert Califf testified in July, displacing blame from the FDA, and saying that they simply did not know. “No law requires manufacturers of these products to notify FDA when they become aware of a circumstance that could lead to a shortage of these products. Without this information, the Agency may have little or no insight as to when a major shortage may occur, preventing us from taking potential mitigation efforts until a crisis becomes apparent,” Califf said. He believed that formula availability to normalize in up to eight weeks.

An investigation shows that the FDA was first notified of formula contamination in December 2021. In fact, 128 complaints were filed between December 2021 and March 2022. The FDA certainly was aware of the contamination before they took action. The White House also took too long to respond as Biden did not invoke the Defense Production Act until May 2022, when 40% of formula was unavailable. This issue should have been solved months ago but persists due to government incompetence.

BMW Warns Investors of Lower Production Forecast, Incoming Factory Orders Declining


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 3, 2022 | sundance 

Whenever we are discussing the intentionally managed decline of the western countries, it is important to remember the closely connected relationship between multinational corporations and the political leaders of those nations.  Specifically, their public-private connections as they run through the World Economic Forum assembly.

An intentionally managed decline of western economic activity should have a direct impact on the private corporations within those economies.  If the politicians are collectively going to stop energy development, raise energy prices (inflation), then use monetary policy to shrink the economy down to the level of energy available, we would normally think corporations were going to make less money.

That preceding paragraph is not controversial.  It simply explains exactly what is happening; that is the situation.  However, for some weird reason the system that evaluates corporate wealth is not responding negatively to the reality of the situation.

Traditionally, we would think destroying the economy would be against the interests of the multinational corporations who benefit from economic expansion.  However, in the era of subsidized and controlled economic management, I’m not so sure the corporations are stakeholders in economic growth.  Something is profoundly disconnected, or else the corporations would be raising hell with the politicians.

BERLIN, Aug 3 (Reuters) – BMW (BMWG.DE) lowered its output forecast and warned of a highly volatile second half on Wednesday, pinpointing supplies of energy in Europe and chips worldwide as the two crucial factors to the carmaker hitting full-year earnings targets.

New incoming orders were beginning to fall but order books remained filled for the next few months, chief executive Oliver Zipse said. (read more)

All of the basic indicators point in one direction.

Energy prices are squeezing consumers and paychecks. Energy driven inflation is high.  Rising housing costs, food costs, gasoline costs and energy costs have hit the consumer hard.  Credit card balances have jumped.  Consumer sales on non-essential items have dropped.  Factory activity around the world (Asia and Eurozone) is slowing or has stopped.  Durable goods inventories have climbed everywhere, without customers to purchase them.  All of these facets are happening exactly as we would expect.

However, the value of the companies negatively impacted by everything above, is not dropping at the same rate of the financial impact each company is incurring.  It’s as if the entire financial system is pretending that things are not as bad as they are.  This announcement from BMW is a good example of that.

Consider another example.  According to the employment data, and even accepting the data is skewed, somewhere around 3.9 million jobs restarted or were created in the first six months of this year.  Yet, despite that job growth the GDP declined -1.6% in the first quarter and -0.9% in the second.

How does an economy add almost 4 million jobs while simultaneously shrinking?

Either people are (1) less productive, or (2) working less hours, or (3) holding multiple jobs…. or a combination of the three.

Trying to filter through the economic noise to see beyond the horizon is becoming more difficult.

So, let’s bring this conversation down to Main Street.  What do you see around you?  What’s going on economically in your community?

Do you see lots of people in stores and shopping malls?

Do you see a lot of new purchases being made?

How are your family, friends and the people in your community being affected by this economy?

Kari Lake Pulls Ahead in Arizona, Trump-endorsed Candidates Run the Board


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 3, 2022 | sundance 

The Trump-endorsed candidates in Arizona are running the board; however, the corrupt, conniving and scheming UniParty constructs that have thoroughly infected the state election process still remain.

As it currently standsTrump-endorsed Blake Masters appears to have easily won the GOP primary in the Senate race and will now face Mark Kelly.  The comprehensively corrupt Rusty Bowers, the Arizona state House speaker who was insistent upon retaining corruption as a political business model – and a favorite of the J6 committee in DC, has thankfully lost his bid for a state senate seat to Trump-endorsed David Farnsworth.

Additionally, Trump-endorsed Kari Lake (pictured above last night) has taken a sizable lead in Governor’s primary race over decepticon Mike Pence-endorsed Karrin Taylor Robson.

Meanwhile, Arizona voters have overwhelmingly selected Trump-endorsed Mark Finchem as their candidate for the secretary of state’s office.  Perhaps Finchem, if he succeeds in the general election, can finally fix the insufferable mess of Arizona elections.

Kari Lake’s victory, if certified, is a profound set-back for the two UniParty wings of the political club.

No doubt RNC Club Chairwoman Heavy McD (Ronna McDaniel) ate a few extra slices of red velvet cake for breakfast before throwing the coffee pot at the trembling concierge hiding behind the spa door.  For the Arizona contest, Ms Kari Lake raised about $3.8 million in mostly small dollar donations, while Ms. Taylor Robson -a billionaire club member- raised more than $18 million. The one thing Arizona voters and Heavy D would agree upon, is that Arizona rebels are revolting.

In the State of Florida, it was always Broward County that led to more than twenty years of constant eyerolls whenever an election cycle came around.  The issues with Broward County voting in the sunshine state were well documented, transparently corrupt and brutally obvious for decades.

Then newly elected Governor Ron DeSantis finally intervened, appointed state oversight, removed the corrupt Brenda Snipes (with her entire staff) as supervisor of elections, and ‘presto’ – just like that all of the Broward County issues mysteriously resolved.  In 2020 the full state reported election results by 10pm on election night.  Funny that.

The state of Arizona, specifically Maricopa and Pima counties, who seem to need days -if not weeks- to tally their votes, perhaps needing the assistance of DNC trained carrier pigeons handled by GOPe caretakers, has become the new Broward County.

Despite the intransigence of the GOP club, the insurgent MAGA victories continue….

VICTORIES INCLUDE:

John James (MI-10)

Tudor Dixon (MI Gov)

John Gibbs (MI-3 defeated impeachment R)

Blake Masters (AZ Senate)

Kari Lake (AZ-Gov)

Mark Finchem (AZ Sec State)

David Farnsworth (AZ- State Sen beats J6 Rusty Bowyers)

Eric Schmitt (MO Sen)

Celebrities Normalizing Bug Consumption


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease Re-Posted Aug 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

In my interview with Maria Zeee, you may have heard us mention the propaganda efforts to make eating bugs seem normal. In 2018, actress Nicole Kidman made a video for Vanity Fair in which she eats “micro livestock” from a fancy silver platter. This is an insult to the people of food-deprived nations who are forced to eat bugs to survive. Notice how she uses chopsticks, a nod to some Asian cultures where this practice is not seen as abnormal. Numerous celebrities have stated that they incorporate bugs into their diets.

Canada has already begun to build an “alternative protein manufacturing facility” where they will farm crickets for human consumption. This is completely in line with Schwab’s agenda to reduce emissions (blame the livestock and not the factories) and control the world population. There is a reason that they are making farming increasing difficult across first-world nations.

In fact, the WEF released an article in 2021 entitled “Why we need to give insects the role they deserve in our food systems.” The article cites the growing population, a constant concern among the globalists, and claims that there will not be enough farmland to cultivate food for the estimated 9.7 billion people who will be stuck on this planet by 2050. The article continues:

“Now we need to overcome the last major barriers: preconceived ideas about insects as a source of food and legislation with regard to the use and consumption of proteins derived from insects. The ban on the use of insect as a source of protein has begun to evolve in Europe. In 2017, the authorization of the use of insect proteins was expanded from feed for pet food to include feed for aquaculture animals. This year the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) reported that mealworms are safe for human consumption and a decision is expected to be made regarding the use of insects in pork and poultry feed.”

The European Union did in fact approve the use of some insect consumption in 2021. Even Forbes published an article praising the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) for passing the measure. All proponents cite the same benefits that all come down to “sustainability” and saving the environment. Enjoy the mealworms and crickets. I cannot see this as a normal menu item and refuse to consume bugs for some madman’s agenda of ruling the world.

Pelosi Visits Taiwan


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Aug 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan on Tuesday night despite warnings from both Washing and Beijing. The nature of her trip was so secretive that it was not on her official itinerary. Now, the true nature of her visit is coming to light. “We take this trip at a time when the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy,” Pelosi said. “We cannot stand by as the CCP proceeds to threaten Taiwan — and democracy itself,” Pelosi said in a statement. “Our congressional delegation’s visit should be seen as an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic partner, as it defends itself and its freedom.”

Her statements blatantly disregard the One China policy and all but confirmed that the US would support Taiwan if China invaded. In fact, her tone was so forceful it seemed as if she may be pressuring Taiwan to break away from China. China did not shoot down her plane as some Chinese commenters speculated, but they did flex their military muscles by conducting military exercises near the Taiwan Strait before Pelosi arrived. China does not want a war – but will they be pushed into one?

The nature of Pelosi’s visit has finally been disclosed. She will meet with President Tsai Ing-wen on Wednesday, and some news outlets are reporting that she plans to meet with activists who are outspoken about China’s human rights violations. Pelosi seems to be pushing the nation to liberate itself from the One China policy. One must wonder if Washington expressed dismay publicly while secretly endorsing Pelosi’s monumental trip. China has already punished Taiwan by banning it from exporting 100 food items, which will certainly hurt Taiwan’s fishermen and farmers. They are likely calculating their next move against the US. Expect tensions between the US and China to reach new heights, all due to Nancy Pelosi.

Smooth Operator, Senator Joe Manchin Answers Questions About His Energy Deal with Senator Chuck Schumer


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 2, 2022 | sundance |

Democrat Senator Joe Manchin wears the purple tie today as he answers questions from the DC legislative narrative engineers.  There are two videos below.  The first is a general presser with multiple members of the DC media (print journos) about the Green New Deal energy bill he negotiated with Senator Chuck Schumer. The second video is an interview between Manchin and Fox News host Harris Faulkner.

Unfortunately, in both the presser and the direct interview no one pins Manchin down on where “expanded energy production” of the bill is located.  Manchin claims there is legislative language in the deal that supports the fast domestic production of oil, coal and natural gas to meet the immediate issue of skyrocketing energy prices.  However, Manchin is a smooth operator, and he states confidence that rapid and expanded development of oil, coal and gas is part of the deal.  WATCH:

Here’s the segment with Harris Faulkner trying to pin him down on tax increases, energy production, inflation and the 2024 election.

.

Job Openings in June Decreased 605,000, Retail Sector Dropped 343,000


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 2, 2022

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces a monthly report of available job openings.  The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS report) shows the number of available jobs at a captured moment in time.  This JOLTS report [DATA HERE] is a summary of the last day in June.

As you can see within modified Table-1, the number of available jobs dropped by 605,000 in this report.

Hires and separations were little changed, so too was the number of people who quit their jobs.  The big change in this JOLTS survey was the removal of available jobs.  Employers cancelling job openings.

BLS – “On the last business day of June, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.7 million (-605,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. The largest decreases in job openings were in retail trade (-343,000), wholesale trade (-82,000), and in state and local government education (-62,000).”

If we monitor the JOLTS report as an indicator of employment strength reflecting the general pattern of consumers, we can see a pullback in both the goods and service sector.

Retail job openings dropping 343,000 as consumer spending tightens even more due to inflation, and now we see the service side with leisure and hospitality dropping 91,000 openings.

Not Every Developed Western Nation is Destroying Itself While Chasing the Build Back Better Objective


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 30, 2022 | Sundance 

In fact, there are several western nations who see the ‘climate change” energy transformation as an economic kamikaze mission… and that reality is upsetting those who control the larger western alliance agenda.

When we outlined the ‘biggest problem‘ we noted: Brazil, Mexico, and more recently Japan, have started pushing back against the climate change ideologues.  We must do the same.

So, let’s get everyone up to speed.

Factually, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is not only a nationalist leader for his country, Brazil itself is in an emerging economic relationship within the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).  The BRICS group are not in ideological or geopolitical alignment with the World Economic Forum (WEF) climate change instructions known as Build Back Better.  This lack of ideological synergy is one of the reasons we see a joint effort between the U.S. State Dept and U.S. intelligence group to target Jair Bolsonaro for removal.  [Watch Bolsonaro w/ Tucker Carlson]

Recently, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) visited the White House.  AMLO is basically soft-socialist, a nationalist who does not like the influence of multinational corporations on the economic politics within Mexico.  When he visited with Joe Biden, AMLO’s public comments in the oval office (he actually had them written down so he would not be deterred from his delivery) about the U.S. chasing a short-sighted and dangerous energy policy, were just ignored by media.  However, watching AMLO deconstruct the Biden energy policy was very telling. [Review Outline Here].

In addition to so-called geopolitical adversaries like Russia, China and Iran, there are also geopolitical allies who clearly see that fracturing the global economy based on energy development, the center of the Build Back Better agenda, is going to create major issues for the citizens within the countries determined by ideological quest to change their energy system.   As noted with Brazil and Mexico, not everyone in the “west” is on board with the program.

Even in Germany and the U.K. we see evidence indicating pragmatic discussion is starting to surface.

There will eventually be an inflection point within the EU as the desires of the ideological leaders run into the reality of the situation.  [ex. Dutch farm protests]

The Build Back Better climate agenda is essentially a process to deindustrialize economies, then rebuild them.  Will Germany really accept a lower standard of living, just to be equitable in economic malaise?  If you know any German people, you know the answer to that is an emphatic NO.

Additionally, southeast Asia (ASEAN group) represents an almost impossible region to shift away from traditional oil, coal, gasoline and food derivatives that need fertilizer and natural gas etc.  And everyone knows China is not going to go along with the ‘climate’ nonsense.

Even if Beijing puts a smiley-faced panda mask on the Beijing dragon, they are going to use the climate change suicide mission of the west as a geopolitical advantage toward their own expanded economic influence.  Hell, who wouldn’t.

♦ Which brings me to the recent appearance of Japanese pushback, which comes with a typically Japanese subtlety.

Keep in mind that Japanese industry is still the largest investor in U.S. manufacturing and jobs.

Despite Japan signing-on with the western alliance sanctions against Russia, almost assuredly a decision intended to stay in alignment with the G7 politics, recently Japan has refused to join the collective western approach to raise central bank interest rates to facilitate the BBB ‘transition’ (link).

This has caused the Japanese yen to fall rapidly against western currency, specifically against the U.S. dollar.  The dollar has gained 25.5% against the Japanese yen (link).

Now, inflation in Japan is still an issue, but it is less an issue than in the EU and North America (Canada/USA with Mexico excluded).  Part of that lower inflation dynamic is caused by Japan not driving supply-side inflation as a result of the energy transition.

The decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has created some anxiety within the western alliance group of central bankers.  Additionally, Japan is remaining in good standing with Russia for energy resources and continues to purchase all oil and LNG at the lowest rates possible, regardless of origination. Japan is also the top investor and buyer of LNG from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 plant, so they are the most exposed to Moscow’s new demand to pay for energy through a Russian bank.

(Reuters) – SINGAPORE — Russia’s Sakhalin Energy Investment Co has requested its liquefied natural gas (LNG) customers to make payments via a Moscow unit of a European bank and is in talks to change the payment currencies away from U.S. dollars, two sources familiar with the matter said on Friday. (link)

Again, another geopolitical dynamic that breaks Japan away from the collective western suicide mission.

From the perspective of Japan, all of these moves -while not aligning with the demands of the BBB agenda- make perfect sense.

While their currency is suffering from not following the western agenda, they have several upsides.  First, exports from Japan to the United States and the EU now become even cheaper. With a higher dollar value, Japanese imports into the United States come at a discount.  This will help Japan export goods and retain a strong export economy.

Second, with Japan already a massive investor inside the United States, the dollars that are generated in profit from their operations are delivered back to Japan at a higher value.  A higher dollar value, the outcome of their breaking from the western central bank decision to raise rates, does not hurt Japan.  They bring back high valued dollars from their decades in investment into North America, and they continue exporting to the U.S. at a discount.

So, the nationalist outlooks of Japan, Brazil and even our Mexican neighbors are reflecting a pragmatic self-interest that so far has withstood the pressures from the western alliance to fall into line.  This is how those three countries are positioned to push back against the insufferable BBB agenda.

We can use the example of those western industrialized nations to show that not everyone is in alignment with this globalist multinational finance and corporate takeover.

If we can get more people to see how short-sighted and dangerous the agenda of the World Economic Forum is, we can further expose the real nature of the BBB agenda, to accumulate wealth and control amid a very small conglomerate of WEF corporate and banking interests.

The ‘climate change agenda‘ has always been about a small group of multinational interests having more assembled power, influence and affluence.  As they now take their Davos effort onto the world stage, they will encounter resistance and push-back.  Not everyone in the western alliance is on board with the objective.

Stay smart, avoid the shiny things, stay focused, and look for ways to throw sand into the machinery.

There are more of us than them.

FUBAR, Second Quarter GDP Contracts 0.9%, The U.S. Economy is Officially in Recession


Posted Originally in the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance 

Jumpin’ ju-ju-bones, CTH did not expect the BEA to admit the U.S. economy was in recession.  CTH originally predicted the BEA would use lower import data as the primary tool to modify the GDP result.

Factually, in this report, import data -in combination with lower consumer spending- was the primary sector that led to the result.  However, even with drops in the valuation of imports which lift GDP calculations, the economy still contracted.

Things must be much worse than officially admitted (details below), if the BEA is going to admit things are bad.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the dollar value of all goods and services produced in the economy, minus the dollar value of goods and services we import. The percentages discussed are percentages of change over time.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first estimate of the second quarter GDP [Data Here] reflecting a 0.9% drop in U.S. economic activity. The second quarter contraction follows a 1.6% drop in the first quarter, which means we now have two consecutive quarters of declining economic activity, the technical definition of a recession.

The two primary data points which show the economic contraction are: (1) Lowered consumer spending; and (2) much lower imports as a result of lower consumer spending on durable goods and non-essential items.  High Q1 inventories of goods were also flushed out by companies and not replaced.  Starting with the consumer spending, here’s the data [Table-2, BEA report]:

Consumer spending, also called “personal consumption expenditures” declined 1.08% for goods overall in the second quarter.

Consumer spending represents two-thirds of all GDP in the United States.  Americans buy lots of stuff, and when Americans stop spending on goods the economy stalls.  As you can see in Table-2, consumer spending on goods dropped 1.08% and spending on services increased 1.78%.  The net difference is 0.70%, a massive drop in consumer spending compared to prior quarters/years.

The next component with major impact is the result of the drop in spending.

THIS IS INSANE – Ukraine DEMANDS FREE GAS From Brandon


The Dive With Jackson Hinkle Published originally on Rumble on July 26, 2022