Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 9, 2022 | Sundance
The previous first quarter productivity drop of 7.4% was the largest quarterly drop in 74 years. Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the second quarter productivity dropped another 4.6% [Data Here].
For July, companies are paying 5.7% higher wages and getting a 4.6% drop in output, resulting in a total unit labor cost increase of 10.8%. That increase in final output cost will either result in higher prices or lower profits.
With weak consumer purchasing (low demand) already creating an inventory surplus, hence lower outputs, lower profit leads to cutbacks. The largest company expenses are generally labor and energy costs. The more variable and controllable of those two expenses is labor. You know what comes next.
(WSJ) – […] Rising productivity is the key to improving living standards; it allows companies to raise wages without raising prices and fueling inflation. Instead, businesses appear to be paying workers more to produce less. The higher unit labor costs suggest companies will either endure lower profits or pass on higher costs to consumers.
“The trend in productivity growth has worsened compared to prior to the pandemic, and the surge in unit labor costs makes the Fed’s challenge of getting inflation back down to its 2% target all the more challenging,” Wells Fargo economist Sarah House said in a research note.
The central bank has increased rates four times this year from near zero in March in an effort to raise borrowing costs, slow economic growth and bring inflation down.
The consecutive negative productivity readings are a reversal from earlier in the pandemic, when the economy was expanding rapidly and businesses appeared to be adopting new technology to cope with worker shortages and limits to face-to-face contact. (read more)
Meanwhile, “U.S. manufacturing output in June was down by 0.4% compared with March though it was still up by 3.6% compared with the same month a year earlier, estimates prepared by the Federal Reserve Board found. Three-month output growth was the weakest since early 2021, and confirms slackening momentum evident in other data on output, orders and jobs.” (Reuters)
This month’s inflation report (reflecting changes in July) will show a large decline in overall inflation. This will provide the White House with a false narrative of confidence that inflation has peaked. However, food inflation (farm prices not yet realized) will combine with wage inflation (as noted above) sometime around October, and then we enter another round of rising prices.
The prices for durable goods have likely peaked. If you are in the market for an expense item (appliance, furniture, etc) look for significant incentives to trigger in Sept/October; right around the same time when the layoffs start. So, sit tight for a few more weeks.
However, the prices for highly consumable products will present a false plateau (Aug/Sept) until they go bananas again just before the Thanksgiving holiday season.
The people of Panama have been protesting the obscene cost of living for weeks. President Laurentino Cortizo has promised to lower the cost of basic necessities such as food and energy, but the people are not satisfied. Teachers began protesting in July and went on an initialthree-day strike. This act of defiance inspired other groups who also took to the streets to call for price reductions.
Inflation in Panama sits at 4.2% as of May, while the unemployment rate hovered around 10%. Fuel costs have soared nearly 50% since January of this year. The issue here is that despite the country’s economy growing, the benefits have not been passed on to the people in any way. Many highly-skilled professionals, such as doctors, left the country long ago for countries where they’re paid competitively and access to medical care has become increasingly difficult.
Protestors blocked the Pan-American highway, which is the main route for most of Panama’s food. Even the Catholic Church stepped in during June to mediate the battle between the people and government. The first round of discussions mediated by the Catholic Church resulted in the government freezing the cost of 72 products. Additionally, the government will now allocate 6% of GDP to education by 2024. The Inter-American Highway, connecting Panama to the rest of Central America, was cleared but the supply constraints and resulted in significant losses.
Panama’s economy grew 17.8% in 2021, and 13.6% in Q1 of 2022. There is no reason for Panamanians’ quality of life to decrease when their economy is in a surplus. The protests will continue as the people have realized that their corrupt government does in fact work for them
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 7, 2022 | sundance
The great pretending continues. During a Sunday talk show appearance, San Francisco Fed Chair Mary Daley states, “what I see is supply and demand are just unbalanced. About 50% by my own staff’s estimates of the excess inflation we see is related to demand. The other 50% to supply.” Note, she is not talking about energy.
Margaret Brennan, maintaining her position as the professional CBS narrative engineer, never thinks to ask: (a) where is this demand you speak of, and what exactly are they demanding? and/or (b) What is this 50% inflation on the supply side connected to? Obviously, an actual probing of inflation wasn’t in the script. The great pretending continues. [Transcript Here]
CTH has stated without reservation that August’s inflation report will show a significant –albeit temporary– drop in inflation as measured by the govt. The drop in gasoline prices throughout July (created by a drop in demand) will allow the fiscal and monetary policy makers to falsely claim overall inflation peaked. However, after a brief respite the inflation now growing in the ground (massive increases in farm costs), will then launch into the food supply chain. This delayed food inflation will overtake the energy inflation in the latter part of this year. WATCH:
[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We turn now to the state of the economy and the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Mary Daly. Good morning to you.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO PRESIDENT MARY DALY: Good morning.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The San Francisco Fed said fiscal spending during the entirety of the pandemic, all the congressional funding contributed 3%- a 3% hike in inflation. Do you expect the congressional bill that’s about to pass to add to inflation as well?
DALY: Well, let’s remember that during the time that there was this fiscal relief during the pandemic, there was also monetary policy relief. And those were things necessary to get us through the pandemic. So that’s why that was such an important component in history, will be the judge, whether it was too much or too little. But right now, that’s where that was. And my staff have evaluated that. When I look forward, there are so many things going on in the economy right now, both domestically and globally. And we are struggling with high inflation. But the Fed is committed to bringing that down. And we’re looking at not only things that Congress passes, but also what happens across the entire world.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So do you think this bill will- will add to inflation? Has inflation peaked? Can you say that?
DALY: You know, I really can’t comment on pending legislation, and it’s really hard to tell because all the details haven’t been worked out yet and or the time frame in which those things will take place. So right now, I think the most important thing, Margaret, is that inflation is too high and the labor market is strong. The global economy is struggling with ongoing high inflation, and that’s what I’m focused on.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You are a labor economist. We had this surprisingly strong jobs number on Friday. Why was it so surprising? What was it that economists missed here? What was your takeaway?
DALY: You know, it’s super interesting. You know, it did surprise everyone who tries to figure out exactly what the number will be. And we were you know, a number of projections were well off. But, you know, frankly, if you’re out in the communities, if you’re you’re traveling anywhere, you’re you’re just going in your own community. I don’t think consumers are workers or businesses were that surprised. There’s help wanted signs all over the place. People are can find multiple jobs if they want them. Search times for jobs aren’t that long. So I think the labor market is continuing to deliver. It just tells me that people want to work and that people want to hire. But the universal truth is that inflation’s too high.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But does it still or does it indicate that recession is not where we are or where we’re going?
DALY: If you’re out in the economy, you don’t feel like you’re in a recession. That’s the bottom line. The most important risk out there is inflation. And I think the job market just confirms that.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. We’re going to take a break and come right back with you. Mary Daly, stay with us. We have more questions.
*COMMERCIAL BREAK*
MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to Face the Nation. We continue our conversation now with the head of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Mary Daly. In that jobs number on Friday, we also saw that wages rose, but they’re not rising as quickly as inflation is. How concerned are you that that shows inflation is really becoming embedded in the economy in a way that is really going to force sure your colleagues at the Fed to continue to have to hike rates.
DALY: You know, I don’t see inflation is embedded in the economy, the kinds of things that we would worry about just not being able to correct easily. What I see is supply and demand are just unbalanced. About 50% by my own staff’s estimates of the excess inflation we see is related to demand. The other 50% to supply. The Fed is really well positioned to bring demand down, and we already see the cooling forming in the housing market and investment. So I do see signs that the economy is cooling. It just is going to take some time for the interest rate adjustments we’ve made to work their way through. And we are far from done yet. That’s the the promise to the American people. We are far from done. We’re committed to bringing inflation down and we’ll continue to work until that job is fully done.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So it would still be appropriate to raise rates in September by half a percent?
DALY: Absolutely. And we need to be data dependent. It could. We need to leave our minds open. We have two more inflation reports coming out, another jobs report. We continue to collect all the information from the context we talk to you to see how this is working its way through the economy. But you mentioned, you know, wage growth a little bit above 5% inflation. Last print at 9.1%. Americans are losing ground every day. So the focus has to be on bringing inflation down.
MARGARET BRENNAN: One of the things the Fed can’t control is geopolitical risk. How concerned are you about what is happening in the Taiwan Strait right now?
DALY: Well, there’s so much going on globally, and I think that’s really something that we need to think about. It’s just getting through COVID, making sure the new variants don’t derail economic activity. We have central banks across the globe raising interest rates to try to bridle their own inflation. And we have ongoing developments that take place geopolitically or just more generally among countries and all of those things. The war in Ukraine, all of those things create headwinds, if you will, for the US economy and we’re going to have to lean against those headwinds for growth while we bridle inflation.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The Fed has its work cut out and I know we’ll be talking again. Thank you very much, Mary Daly. (LINK)
Awaken With JP originally Published on Rumble on July 23, 2022
This week’s news includes everything from Biden shaking hands with the air again, Pelosi’s insider trading, and how they are trying to turn the US into a third world country! Here’s Lies You Can Trust…
To my total shock, I know a family that fled Poland to flee from Russia and went to Canada. They then fled Canada because of all the insanity of Trudeau and refused to return. Since their visa for America is expiring, they said to me that they may now go to Russia. I was completely stunned. They said Western culture is pushing them to return from pronouns to canceling anyone who has ever said anything, even 25 years ago, and the total craziness in politics. What they once fled from is still far better than what is taking place here.
Every person I know here in America who fled from Russia when the USSR collapsed says the same thing. What they fled from is now here. Putin has come out and warned that wokeness is what destroyed Russia. His popularity in Russia is double that of Biden because he has turned Russia back to traditional values. Using the wrong pronoun is now offensive. I remember going to the Latin Casino in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, and seeing Don Rickels live in the ’70s. There was not a single race or ethnic group he did not make a joke about. There was a time when we once could laugh at ourselves. Those days are gone.
There is a cycle to everything. The culture shift in Russia is actually hopeful that we too will shed these restrictions of wokeness, and I will not be offended if you say, “Hey, you!” Civilization is when everyone comes together for mutual benefit. Wokeness is all about division. When you ask an American what are you, they will typically respond half-German and half-Irish or whatever their mix. That illustrates that America was the melting pot where everyone merged into one, whereas you do not see that in Europe except on rare occasions. This is what is being torn apart by wokeness, and we will see oppression and civil unrest that could lead even to civil war because of it.
When I was growing up there was just straight, gay, and bi-sexual. Today, I am told there are 70 distinctions. I have absolutely no idea anymore but it no longer makes one look upon everyone as equal. You suddenly have to stay to yourself and be afraid to address someone for being accused of racism or sexism or whatever new term they manufacture. We once were all Americans. I hired Robert Howe who was probably the first black analyst because he was qualified. Today, you get inquires from the state demanding to know how many minorities and women you have on your staff. We have every race and gender on our staff, as well as religion. Perhaps I am old fashion, but I never hire people because of quotas.
It’s not a question of patriotism, and it is not wrong for that family to suddenly say they are moving back to Russia all because of the political propaganda. The traditional values that once kept American culture as the beacon of light in a dark world have been overthrown. The public forum, where the people once discussed differences and enacted their laws as well as elected their representatives, has been enclosed by fences at times to protect it from the people, and the chamber that shined for the world as an example of freedom has been reduced to one of hatred and has been exploited by foreign agendas seeing a Great Reset. The public and private institutions that were founded for eternity lie naked and broken by partisan politics indistinguishable from the ruins of ancient Greece. Those stupendous relics of the past are all that has survived the injuries of time and the folly of men.
Today is a sad statement of our times. Our leaders not only preach war, but they also seek to divide our nation by turning brother against brother until our civilization exists no more. The Democrats have exploited every distinction to separate and divide us while seeking 5 years imprisonment for those who only entered the capitol and took a selfie all to paint their opposition with hatred.
The possession of wealth today only stimulates the hatred of others and any traditional rigid virtue of centuries now offends and warrants censure. The irregularities of voting are swept aside and those who seek to investigate are targeted as conspiracy theorists. Anyone who objects is always insured the aversion of those in power who search for any excuse to imprison them until death for their part.
Suspicion has merely become the equivalent of proof and any trial is mere pretense to condemnation. They seek the execution of Donald Trump and paint 50% of the people are worthless scum unworthy of a seat in their hallow hall of dictatorial wokeness power. Once they have tasted supreme power, they have become incapable of pity or remorse no less respect for human rights of liberty, and justice for all. Those words have become just propaganda as their meaning has crumbled to dust on the foundation that was once the bedrock of the American dream. Our highest standard of living has been pushed aside as racist or some other terminology crafted with an endless redefinition of the English language.
As I have been stating at conferences, Schwab will fail in his quest to seize control of the world with his unoriginal theories. The very cornerstone of civilization of bringing people together because it is mutually beneficial to all has been broken. The temple of freedom and dignity has fallen. These power-hungry people are separating and dividing us as they turn even families against one another. They vary from the above but can see no differently than Karl Marx who thought he could redesign society. The rise and fall of political states, Schwab believes, can be prevented if the people surrender everything that makes life worthwhile. Schwab and his co-conspiractor at the World Economic Forum seek to turn our corporations into fascist limbs of the state all preaching Schwab’s stakeholder economics and suppressing human rights for at the heart of all of this, there is no divine right because there is nothing divine about them. The future is only theirs to shape – no one else’s.
The world so many rebuilt post-WWII is collapsing — deliberately. It must always appear darkest before a storm and the new light of day that will arrive. We cannot save the institutions of today. We must plan for what comes after this house-cleaning we must go through. Academics such as Klaus Schwab have always presented the greatest threat to societies. Just as Putin said Lenin was just a Bolshevik and not a statesman, someone in the future will remember Klaus Schwab with the same dismissive comments. Posterity will remember his name as it remembers Marx, Hitler, and Stalin. Napoleon sought to conquer Europe, but he had no designs to change human nature.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 6, 2022
Most casual political observers have absolutely no idea how McConnell works. However, for over a decade CTH has been trying –mostly failing– to awaken the base of common-sense voters. In 2010, 2011 and 2012 the #1 priority for McConnell was to destroy the threat represented by the Tea Party. In 2022 we are seeing an exact replay of the same intents and purposes, only this time the target is President Trump’s MAGA movement.
During a recent interview on Fox News, Mitch McConnell was asked about the future perspectives of the Senate against the backdrop of the midterm election. Mitch McConnell’s team literally scrubbed his response from their own segment of this interview [SEE HERE]. This is a familiar tactic from the DeceptiCon group who always cover their tracks. However, the segment lasts on the internet [06:45 prompted] WATCH:
Mitch McConnell essentially says the Senate is too close to call and the democrats may be “up slightly” because the wrong kind of republican candidates have been nominated in the GOP primary process in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Arizona. Once again, the elitist UniParty view of DC Mitch McConnell shines through.
Keep in mind this is the same Mitch McConnell who was challenged by the audience during a 2017 Rotary Club meeting in Kentucky, about why he refused to support the election priorities of President Trump. McConnell responded, “I’d ask for a show of hands, but I know everybody’s saying, ‘been there, haven’t done anything,’ which I find extremely irritating — and I’m going to tell you why.”
McConnell continued, “a Congress goes on for two years. Part of the reason I think that the storyline is that we haven’t done much is because, in part, the president and others have set these early timelines about things need to be done by a certain point,” he said. Then came the kicker, “our new president, of course, has not been in this line of work before, and I think had excessive expectations about how quickly things happen in the Democratic process.”
Ah, the customs, traditions and parliamentary norms of the Senate were to blame for republican intransigence on the Trump agenda. President Trump held “excessive expectations” as to what could be done to support the America-First agenda in the senate.
According to Mitch McConnell, it was Trump’s fault for thinking a republican majority Senate would work to support the American middle-class.
Comments like that reveal for most what the true motive of Senator McConnell is all about. It is a motive and agenda all wrapped up in the senate power structure.
McConnell does not fear being in the minority; the color of the flag atop the spire of the UniParty senate does not matter to those underneath it. McConnell maneuvers with just as much power in the minority as he does in the majority.
In fact, McConnell makes more money selling his DeceptiCon caucus votes to Chuck Schumer (on behalf of Wall Street) than he does in the majority where he is forced to purchase them.
Indeed, the entire scheme is a rigged game, as Christopher Bedford realized last year and wrote in The Federalist [SEE HERE] after Mitch McConnell delivered his post-election impeachment floor speech. A ploy to destroy the MAGA movement with Trump removed:
THE FEDERALIST– […] “So what’s all behind this? After four years of yelling “MAGA!” while pushing his own classic, corporate Republican policies, McConnell had hoped to rid himself and his conference of the conservative populist nationalism the former president had championed and go back to the way things were.
He wants a return to promising to tackle illegal immigration before winking at corporate America that nothing will change. He wants to raise money on fighting the abortion of our infants while comfortably lifting nary a finger. He wants to shrug and change the subject when asked about men dominating women’s sports and using women’s bathrooms. He wants fewer taxes and more wars. Hell, he wants someone to blame for the Republican losses in the Georgia special election, and with them the loss of his seat at the head of the Senate.
Instead, his push to impeach ended with rebuke from his own conference. Angry and embarrassed, he blamed his own colleagues as well as the former president, performing a 20-minute attack ad for the left to use on Republicans for the next election cycle and beyond.” (read more)
Through his power structure, McConnell directly controls about 8 to 15 republican senators; we have called them “The Decepticons” for years. [Cornyn, Thune, Porter, Blunt, Portman, Burr, Barasso, Crapo, Murkowski, Gardner, Roberts, Sasse, Tillis, Rubio, Graham, Romney, and now, Tim Scott]
McConnell has a well-used playbook he deploys to retain power at all costs and select candidates that will be indebted to his Senate schemes. The 2022 senate candidates have been up against the same Mitch McConnell club machine that readers here are very familiar with.
To remind ourselves how Minority and Majority Senator McConnell took down the threat of the Tea Party revisit these old articles: CNN Part I and CNN Part II both showcase how McConnell works. Then do some research on how McConnell worked with Haley Barbour in Mississippi [SEE HERE].
For those who follow the deep weeds of politics, McConnell’s schemes are brutally transparent. For the remaining 97% of the voting electorate, they still don’t understand how the UniParty works. Decepticon leader McConnell doesn’t want the American electorate to see purchased senate republicans voting NO on border security.
McConnell must preserve the trough – Corporations (special interest groups) write the legislation. Lobbyists take the law and go find politician(s) to support it. Politicians get support from their peers using tenure and status etc. Eventually, if things go according to norm, the legislation gets a vote.
Within every step of the process there are expense account lunches, dinners, trips, venue tickets and a host of other customary financial waypoints to generate/leverage a successful outcome. The amount of money spent is proportional to the benefit derived from the legislative outcome.
When a House or Senate member becomes educated on the intent of the legislation, they have attended the sales pitch; and when they find out the likelihood of support for that legislation; they can then position their own (or their families) financial interests to benefit from the consequence of passage. It is a process similar to insider trading on Wall Street, except the trading is based on knowing who will benefit from a legislative passage.
Yes, Democrats are the opponents; they are ideological enemies to freedom and a constitutional republic. However, just as dangerous an enemy is Mitch McConnell; the man who builds and fills the Trojan Horses that are presented to the voters every two years.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 5, 2022 | Sundance
McDonalds has announced they are dropping their program testing plant-based meats because people didn’t like it.
As noted by the Washington Times, “other trials at Panda Express and Yum! Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut) have also ended without a subsequent product launch. Beyond Meat products at Dunkin’, Hardee’s, and A&W have been discontinued after launching.”
Apparently, American consumers do not want to eat fake meat; at least not fake meat made from plants.
Next up…. Bug meat.
…”The menus will feature items such as cricket tacos or a Thai larb salad and recipes that use an innovative cricket meat-alternative which packs about 30 per cent protein – and requires around 1800x less Greenhouse gas to produce than beef.” (LINK)
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 5, 2022 | Sundance
The good news is that gasoline prices have dropped in the past several weeks to an average of $4.13/gal. However, the bad news is that most of the drop in price is related to gasoline demand dropping to the same level as July 2020 during the pandemic lockdown phase.
Obviously, $4.13/gal is still a very high price for gasoline, and that is leading to fewer people purchasing gasoline.
(Via Fox) – […] New data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that gas demand dropped from 9.25 million barrels per day to 8.54 million per day last week. That’s 1.24 million barrels per day lower than last year and “in line with demand at the end of July 2020,” when there were widespread virus-related restrictions and fewer people were hitting the road, according to AAA.
If you think about the position of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC or OPEC+), it makes sense for them to recognize the intentions of the western leaders to shrink the western industrial economies and respond accordingly.
OPEC knows North American and European leaders are intentionally reducing economic activity in an effort to lower the economy to match the lower level of energy production. This is the “managing the transition phase” of the Build Back Better agenda, the intentional shrinking of the economy through energy and monetary policy.
Knowing that, it makes sense that OPEC would not produce additional oil into a globally shrinking economic system. Producing more oil would be against their own economic interests.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 