Jan 14 2025

Confirmations Hearings for Trump Cabinet Nominees Begin Tomorrow


Posted originally on the CTH on January 13, 2025 | Sundance

Confirmation hearings for President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming cabinet are scheduled to begin tomorrow, Tuesday, January 14th.

The senatorial snakes will each take up careful positioning.  Doug Collins for Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Doug Burgum for Secretary of the Interior, and Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense are each scheduled for confirmation hearings in the Senate tomorrow.

With committee passage strongly likely, former Congressman Doug Collins will likely garner more than 60 votes in the full Senate. Former Governor Doug Bergum will also likely glide through the committee review, with around 70 votes likely in the full Senate. However, Pete Hegseth is where the challenge will become first visible.

Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth is viewed as the first potential scalp to be taken in the upper chamber.   The first hurdle is getting out of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss) and Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-RI).

The full slate of Democrat members are likely to oppose Hegseth under the justification of his personal attributes not being of strong enough moral character to lead the military.  The women on the committee will face strong pressure to reject Hegseth due to perceived sexism and misconduct.  No one knows what the FBI background check has uncovered, but it will likely be shaped during the predictable confrontation.

For Democrats on the committee, dirtying up Hegseth will be job #1.  For Republicans, they will need to walk a fine line between supporting the Democrats and yet being visible supporters lest they face the ire of Donald Trump and a fully triggered MAGA army to light up their phones.

Democrat Senators, Jeanne Shaheen, Kirsten E. Gillibrand, Mazie K. Hirono, Elizabeth Warren, Tammy Duckworth, Jacky Rosen and Elissa Slotkin, will all play the gender card putting pressure on the two Republican committee women Joni Ernst and Deb Fischer, not to defend Hegseth.

This will be the #1 confirmation hearing to watch tomorrow.

Jan 13 2025

The Gulf of America Vs. Mexico


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: Dec 28, 2024 at 8:00 pm EST

Jan 13 2025

The Fires in CA Are Happening Because They Prioritized DEI Over Merit


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: Jan 11, 2024 at 6:00 pm EST

Jan 13 2025

Should America Absorb Canada? Why Charlie Isn’t Convinced


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: Jan 11, 2024 at 6:00 pm EST

Jan 13 2025

Charlie Kirk Recaps His Trip to Greenland & Shares His Key Takeaways


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: Jan 11, 2024 at 6:00 pm EST

Jan 13 2025

Everything You Need to Know About the Tragic Fires in CA From an Actual Fire Chief


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: Jan 11, 2025 at 6:00 pm EST

Jan 13 2025

China – Deflation into 2026 & Beyond


Posted originally on Jan 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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QUESTION: Thank you so much for your world forecasts. It is very helpful to be able to read you here in China. You said that deflation is in motion into 2028. People are cutting back on spending and your model has been correct here in China. Could you provide a quick overview for 2025?

DZ

ANSWER: President Xi Jinping has acknowledged that 2025 will be a challenging year of reform. He’s not wrong, at least about the second point. Deflation remains the major problem going into 2028. Prices are indeed falling as households curtail their spending. We are all human, and as soon as economic uncertainty appears on the horizon, people will hoard their cash. This is self-evident from ancient times.

I am doing my best to try to explain to anyone who will listen that this hair brain idea of Trump and tariffs will bring about an economic depression as we move into 2028 and he has the risk that his legacy will match that of Herbert Hoover. There were the Sovereign Defaults of 1931 and that wiped out capital formation. That was the major cause of more than 9,000 bank failures in the USA. We also face massive sovereign defaults, with the worst in Japan and Europe. Add tariffs to this bearish economic outlook, and Trump will export deflation, and with that, the US will also not be able to see overseas. The entire world’s GDP will decline by about 20%.

The People’s Bank of China is as trapped as the rest of the central banks, and it will be unable to stop the deflation without adopting a new economic theory. We are approaching 2026, which will be an important year for our models, and it is even 72 years from the formation of the Chinese Constitution, which was enacted on September 20th, 1954, with the first meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing unanimously approval the 1954 Constitution of the People’s Republic of China. It was a matter of weeks when, on October 1st, 1954, The China Construction Bank was founded.

935 ECM 2020 2028

Canada was the first central bank to cut rates within days of this Economic Confidence Model turning on May 7th, 2024. Overall, we are in a deflationary atmosphere into 2028. With regard to China, the downturn can be hard for two years into 2026.

Jan 13 2025

High Net Worth Californians to Cover Budget Deficits


Posted originally on Jan 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

SAN fRANCISCO

The Legislative Analyst Office (LAO) found that California is facing “double-digit operating deficits in the years to come” as a result of reckless government spending. For the 2025-26 period, the LOA believes the state may have a balanced budget but called Newsom’s spending and policies highly unpredictable. For now, the state has seen $11 billion in “spending-related solutions” and $15 billion in “other solutions,” which will ultimately become problems. Newsom already withdrew $7 billion from the rainy-day fund. The state is now banking on high-income citizens for tax revenue to accommodate its ever-increasing spending.

This report was compiled before the deadly wildfires caused uncalculated damage to EVERYONE, including the dreaded rich who the state expects to cover the spending gap. Newsom spent recklessly on everything but infrastructure.

Spending growth from 2025-26 to 2028-29 is 5.8%, above the average of 3.5%. Growth over the same period is just above 4%, “lower than its historical average largely due to policy choices that end during the forecast window. Taken together, we view it as unlikely that revenue growth will be fast enough to catch up to ongoing spending.”

The “good news” is that incomes are rapidly rising among high-income residents who the state will extort. The labor market remains soft but those at the top will be expected to fill the gaps. The rising stock market is contributing to growth in pay among high-income workers, with the report noting that those in California’s once booming tech field are seeing pay increases. As with all socialistic economies, the government sees your money as their money.

Tax collections are expected to beat expectations by $7 billion. “This is entirely due to improving income tax collections, which would, under our forecast, end the current year 20 percent higher than two years ago,” the report notes. Since no individual can predict future stock movement, the legislative office is uncertain how much they will ultimately be able to extort, but they believe revenues will be “above or below” $30 billion across the budget window.

california

The office is also banking on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, another unpredictable variable. Currently, the state is facing annual multiyear deficits around $20 billion to $30 billion, which is exactly what they are hoping to ultimately collect from citizens.

GOVERNMENT SPENDING is to blame for the budget failures. Every analysis says the same thing. The LAO suggests: “Legislature would need to address in the coming years, for example by reducing spending, increasing taxes, shifting costs, or using more reserves. The magnitude of these deficits also indicates that, without other changes to spending or revenues, the state does not have capacity for new commitments.”

Newsom has no plans to slow spending. While the state has absolutely no capacity for new spending commitments, state government will not comply. The state can either raise taxes or reduce spending, and ultimately, the current plan is to continually raise taxes and punish the people for government’s failures.

Jan 13 2025

Europe’s New Travel Restrictions – Schengen at Risk


Posted originally on Jan 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

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I have been warning for many years that the Schengen Agreement would fail. As I explained half a decade ago: “As the economy turns down very hard after 2015.75, we are more likely than not going to see the freedom of movement in Europe fragment and that will be the crack that signals the eventual risk of breaking up the EU idea of empire-building.” We saw things come to a head at the dawn of the refugee crisis when Merkel embarked on an open border policy. Nations began temporarily closing their borders to one another to curb migration. Brussels encouraged open borders but individual nations aimed to protect their sovereignty. Now, massive travel restrictions and requirements are underway.

The Schengen Agreement led to the creation of Europe’s borderless Schengen Area. The treaty was signed on June 14, 1985 by five of the ten member states of the European Economic Community near the town of Schengen in Luxembourg, but was not implemented (partially) until 1995. It proposed the gradual abolition of border checks at the signatories’ common borders. Measures proposed included: reduced speed vehicle checks that allowed vehicles to cross borders without stopping, allowed residents in border areas the freedom to cross borders away from fixed checkpoints, and the harmonization of visa policies.

Schengen Agreement

Germany and others are implementing the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) in May. Those wishing to travel to nations with ETIAS requirements must receive electronic pre-approval. Anyone traveling from a visa-free nation will be required to apply. This includes a background check, submitting biometric data, and answering questions in relation to health and criminal history. ETIAS will remain valid for three years or until an individual’s passport expires. It can take up to 96 hours to process according to estimates.

Italy will begin requesting Type D visa holders to undergo fingerprinting at consulates. France, Poland, and Portugal are implementing similar measures. Spain introduced CEHAT (Confederación Española de Hoteles y Alojamientos Turísticos) last month that reshaped the hospitality sector by requiring hotels, campgrounds, resorts, apartments, and short-term rentals to submit extensive traveler info. Travelers must provide a thorough 31-data point survey and hand over their personal information. Additionally, travelers must demonstrate financial independence by proving they have €100 per day of their stay.

One may believe that these restrictions are simply targeted at non-Europeans. However, countless nations have already begun to implement border security and become wary of their neighbor as they do not want their migrants passing through their borders. Brussels remains in a state of denial and tries to force the EU upon everyone while denying any democratic process in order to save the jobs of the Eurocrats. We saw nations like Hungary and Poland fight Brussels on its open border protocols.

Europe has witnessed their population alter entirely in recent years under open border policies that are completely destroying each nation’s traditions and culture, not to mention budgets as there is no way any nation can provide full government assistance to endless newcomers. The Schengen Agreement will fail, for it is an invitation that will bankrupt the governments, for they cannot afford to expand their welfare systems.

Jan 13 2025

Newsom FAILED California – Wildfires


Posted originally on Jan 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Gavin Newsom is unfit to run the state of California. The fire that has consumed tens of thousands of acres at the time of this writing could have been controlled had he not ignored warnings. The devastation of these fires will be felt for years to come as the death toll rises and over 100,000 residents have been forced to flee their homes.

The fires began in the Pacific Palisades on the morning of January 7. All three 1-million-gallon water tanks were completely empty by the evening. In 2019, then-President Trump demanded that Newsom turn his attention to forest management.

Newsom.FireHydrantsWater

“Governor Gavin Newscum refused to sign the water restoration declaration put before him that would have allowed millions of gallons of water, from excess rain and snow melt from the North, to flow daily into many parts of California, including the areas that are currently burning in a virtually apocalyptic way,” Trump recently said.

“He wanted to protect an essentially worthless fish called a smelt, by giving it less water (it didn’t work!), but didn’t care about the people of California. Now the ultimate price is being paid. I will demand that this incompetent governor allow beautiful, clean, fresh water to FLOW INTO CALIFORNIA! He is the blame for this. On top of it all, no water for fire hydrants, not firefighting planes. A true disaster!” Trump added.

Newsom is blaming CLIMATE CHANGE for the failed response. “We’re successfully waging war against thousands of fires started across the state in the last few weeks due to extreme weather created by climate change while Trump is conducting a full on assault against the antidotes,” Newsom said in response to Trump’s message, the Washington Post reported at the time.

california wildfires

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass was 7,400 miles away in Ghana as the fires broke out. Bass approved of cutting $17.6 million in funding from the Los Angeles Fire Department’s budget for the 2024-25 fiscal year. “Do you owe citizens and apology for being absent while their homes were burning, and do you regret cutting the Fire Department budget by millions of dollars madame mayor?” Sky News asked Bass when after her plane landed. “No apology for them? Do you think you should have been visiting Ghana while this was unfolding back home?” he said. Naturally, she had no comment. In fact, she had pushed to decrease the department’s budget by $20 million but was met with minor pushback. Those funds were redirected at the California slush funds intended to help the homeless, and sadly, the number of homeless will significantly rise after this incident.

The mental gymnastics one must do to continue supporting these blue policies is astonishing. This catastrophe was completely unrelated to climate change. Newsom and Bass FAILED California and should be forced to resign immediately.