Posted originally on Mar 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Thank you for your honest analysis of gold. Whenever someone talks about gold and inflation, they are not accurate analysts but mouth the same propaganda that has been prevalent since the fall of Bretton Woods. I discussed this with our economics department, and they said you are correct. The quantity of money theory has become irrelevant. It has rallied into March, as Socrates projected.
Well done.
Dir
REPLY: Yes, I am getting more and more requests from universities around the world that they know what they teach no longer works. It may be easier to explain how things work than it is to get people to disregard what they have been taught. I have proposals now. They want to translate the books I have written into Italian, German, and Spanish, just for starters, to be taught in schools around the world. The gold-only crowd constantly preaches the same thing. Oh, the debt is rising, and the money supply is expanding, so but gold.
Well, gold reached #875 in 1980, and the National Debt was $1 trillion. If gold responded to debt or inflation, why is it not at $30,000 instead of testing $3,000? When will they start to report the truth behind what gold is all about? They burn so many people because what they put out is a religion, not analysis.
Nothing goes up for everyone, and nothing goes down forever. There is NO STORE OF VALUE because everything rises and falls. They do not even understand that when gold is money, it too rises and falls because it is on the opposite side of the scale with assets on the other side.
Just look at the all the panics during the 19th century. Gold declined in purchasing power into the booms and rose during the declines, just as the dollar does today. We call it cash is king.
Posted originally on Mar 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: NASA believes that this next solar maximum will be less than the last. Do you agree with that, or should I ask Socrates to agree with that? My second question is the coming asteroid. They say it will hit the earth in 2032. Is that part of Socrates’ forecast?
Fred
ANSWER: Well, as for the asteroid hitting the Earth in 2032, they are playing it down really hard, like it has less than 3%. However, they are already looking at ways to try to destroy it because the odds are much higher than they are telling you. All I can say is that the 8.6-year cycle functions on a fractal basis, and it is extremely accurate. The precession of the equinox is nearly 25,800 years in duration, and that is 3 x 8.6. The fact that this is arriving in 2032 may simply be destiny and part of the universe’s timing.
Now, as to the next solar cycle, we show it should arrive here in 2025, but our computer disagrees with NASA, and it should be stronger than the last. This is the trend into 2032 for solar energy to intensify, meaning more significant flares and possible disruption to power grids, etc. This will be part of the trend into 2032 that will also impact the commodity markets.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Marty, Happy Pi Day. I think it was inevitable that you would discover the relationship between Pi and the economy and the markets. I found it to be fate since you grew up at 314 South Lippincott Avenue.
JF
REPLY: Perhaps it was fate. That was an extraordinary coincidence. I never thought about that until it was pointed out to me years later.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT from Italy: Dear Mr Armstrong,
I just read your topic on volcanoes and cooling weather Please note:
Etna is erupting, slowly Stromboli had a small eruption last year with earthquake On 13march on Campi Flegrei, “caldara” where Vesuvio is Located, had an earthquake of magnitudo 4.1
Thus it seems all italian volcanoes have signs of “life”…: Etna, Stromboli, Vesuvio, Vulcano
Campi Flegrei: il terremoto del 13 marzo 2025 (Md 4.4) e il punto sul bradisismo
Alle ore 01:25 italiane di ieri, 13/03/2025, la Sala di Monitoraggio dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano – INGV ha localizzato un evento sismico di magnitudo preliminare Md 4.4±0.3, nell’area dei Campi Flegrei, lungo la costa del Golfo di Pozzuoli (La Pietra – Dazio) e molto vicino al popoloso quartiere di Bagnoli (Figura 1).
Figura 1 – Mappa della sismicità dei Campi Flegrei tra il 6 marzo e il 13 marzo 2025: sono riportati solo i terremoti di magnitudo M ≥ 1.0. La dimensione dei simboli è proporzionale alla magnitudo, come indicato nel riquadro in basso a destra. La stella e il cerchio turchese indicano l’evento di Md 4.4 del 13 marzo 2025.
Il terremoto che ha fatto vibrare l’intera area metropolitana dei Campi Flegrei e molti quartieri della città di Napoli è avvenuto ad una profondità di circa 2.5 km. Da quel momento è iniziato uno sciame sismico, conclusosi nella notte tra il 13 e il 14 marzo, con un totale di 44 eventi con magnitudo ≥ 0 di cui solo 9 con magnitudo Md tra 1.0 e 1.7.
Come già riportato in molte altre occasioni, la sismicità dell’area dei Campi Flegrei è strettamente correlata alla dinamica vulcanica e in particolare alle fasi di deformazione e sollevamento del suolo (parte del fenomeno noto come bradisismo). L’attuale crisi bradisismica, iniziata nel 2005, ha finora prodotto un sollevamento massimo di circa 140 cm nell’area centrale della caldera, misurato in una piccola area a 500 metri a sud del Rione Terra (Pozzuoli).
Nel passato si sono verificate altre fasi di sollevamento del suolo accompagnate da sismicità, le più recenti delle quali nei periodi 1969-1972 e 1982-1984. I terremoti di maggiore energia nel corso di quelle crisi furono registrati il 4 ottobre 1983 e il 14 marzo 1984 entrambi con una magnitudo Md pari a 4.0. E vale la pena ricordare che la seconda fu caratterizzata da una sismicità talmente intensa da provocare gravi danni agli edifici di Pozzuoli ed una parziale evacuazione dei suoi abitanti.
Durante l’attuale crisi bradisismica, i maggiori eventi sismici sono stati registrati il 27 settembre 2023 (Md 4.2), il 2 ottobre 2023 (Md 4.0), il 20 maggio 2024 (Md 4.4) e il 26 luglio 2024 (Md 4.0), le cui localizzazioni sono mostrate in Figura 2, insieme con quelle degli eventi di magnitudo M ≥ 3.0, a partire dal 1983. Occorre sottolineare che seppure negli ultimi 10 anni sia stato osservato un aumento del numero e dell’energia degli eventi registrati, essi mostrano in grandissima parte (circa il 97%), una magnitudo ≤ 1.0.
Figura 2 – Mappa degli epicentri localizzati dalla Rete Sismica dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano dal 1983 ad oggi, incluso l’evento del 13 marzo 2025 (stella turchese), relativa ai terremoti di magnitudo M ≥ 3.0. A destra della mappa, le proiezioni degli ipocentri orientate nord-sud; in basso, orientate est-ovest (il cerchio turchese indica l’evento di Md 4.4 del 13 marzo 2025. La dimensione dei simboli è proporzionale alla magnitudo, come indicato nel riquadro in basso a destra.
La situazione attuale (febbraio – marzo 2025)
Nelle ultime tre settimane, la velocità media di sollevamento del suolo nella zona di massima deformazione in prossimità del Rione Terra a Pozzuoli, si è attestata intorno ad un valore preliminare di ~30±5 mm/mese (come indicato nel bollettino settimanale dei Campi Flegrei, 3-9 marzo 2025). Un esame dei dati presenti nel Bollettino mensile di febbraio evidenzia che: a) nei mesi precedenti, da agosto 2024, la stessa zona, al centro della caldera, aveva mostrato un tasso di sollevamento medio di ~10 mm/mese; b) solo durante la seconda metà di febbraio 2025 tale valore era salito a ~15±5 mm/mese (Figura 3).
Figura 3 – (a) Serie temporale delle variazioni in quota della stazione GNSS della stazione del Rione Terra, Pozzuoli (RITE) dal 01/01/2024 al 10/03/2025; (b) Variazione di lunghezza della baseline SOLO-ARFE (Solfatara – Arco Felice) dal 01/01/2024 al 10/03/2025.
Nel quadro generale in cui deformazioni e sismicità ai Campi Flegrei continuano a essere strettamente associate, il terremoto di magnitudo Md 4.4 di ieri si inserisce in un contesto di tasso di sollevamento in rapido aumento che invece non era stato rilevato in occasione dell’evento di pari magnitudo del 20 maggio 2024. Quell’evento era infatti avvenuto in condizioni di deformazione progressiva e continua, a testimonianza del fatto che non c’è relazione diretta tra velocità di sollevamento del suolo e magnitudo e che, se fosse necessario ribadirlo, non è possibile stabilire né quando i terremoti arrivano né quale intensità avranno.
Grazie alla recente implementazione e al completamento di una rete accelerometrica, che comprende sia stazioni a terra sia stazioni installate sul fondo del Golfo di Pozzuoli, da alcuni mesi e in occasione di eventi sismici rilevanti, si pubblicano mappe di scuotimento che riportano i valori delle accelerazioni del suolo, espresse in percentuale dell’accelerazione di gravità. Tali mappe sono prodotte per diverse zone dell’area flegrea e ne è stata realizzata una per l’evento di magnitudo Md 4.4 di ieri (Figura 4), su cui si osservano valori di accelerazione molto alti, tra 0.6 e 1 g (dove g è l’accelerazione di gravità), soprattutto verso il bordo della Solfatara e Pozzuoli, verso mare e verso est, in direzione della collina di Posillipo e della città di Napoli.
Pur con taluni caratteri di direzionalità, il terremoto di ieri è stato risentito in una vasta area che va da Bacoli a ovest fino ai quartieri orientali di Napoli in prossimità dell’area vesuviana, e in vari Comuni presenti nei quadranti NE-N-NW dell’area napoletana, fino a Giugliano e Marano. Lo si evince con una certa facilità dalla mappa dei risentimenti ottenuta grazie ai dati raccolti attraverso i questionari di “Hai sentito il terremoto?” che mostrano risentimenti stimati, al momento, fino al V grado MCS (Figura 5).
Figura 5 – Mappa dei risentimenti ottenuta grazie ai dati raccolti attraverso i questionari di “Hai sentito il terremoto?”, aggiornamento del 14/03/2025.
Eruzione imminente?
Sebbene da molti mesi si continuano a registrare variazioni fluttuanti e variabili, ma sostenute, di alcuni parametri quali la velocità di deformazione del suolo e l’emissione di CO2, gli altri parametri rilevati dal sistema di monitoraggio dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano-INGV nel suo complesso, non mostrano al momento evidenze dell’imminenza di una eruzione vulcanica, soprattutto alla luce di un’analisi di tutti i parametri geofisici e geochimici nel loro complesso. Non ci sono, ad esempio, segnali sismici che indichino il movimento di magma verso la superficie né anomalie geofisiche e geochimiche tali da indicare una perturbazione del sistema idrotermale. Gli scenari che possiamo aspettarci nel breve termine vanno, quindi, inseriti nel quadro geofisico che la caldera dei Campi Flegrei mette in luce da tempo: la sismicità proseguirà fin quando sarà in atto il sollevamento del suolo e i terremoti di energia confrontabile con quella del terremoto odierno, o di poco superiore, saranno ancora possibili. Restano possibili una intensificazione della crisi bradisismica come pure una sua diminuzione, con un passaggio da sollevamento a subsidenza (così come avvenuto nelle crisi del secolo scorso).
Cosa sta facendo l’Osservatorio Vesuviano in queste ore?
Nonostante l’evento sismico sia avvenuto a soli 2.5 km in linea d’aria dalla sede dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano, con inevitabile coinvolgimento anche del personale di turno nella notte, l’intera procedura organizzativa che garantisce le comunicazioni previste verso gli organi di Protezione Civile, nei suoi vari livelli, e verso la popolazione, si è svolta secondo gli standard previsti. Inoltre, nelle settimane passate, così come nei giorni che hanno preceduto l’evento sismico della scorsa notte, i vari gruppi di ricercatori dell’Osservatorio Vesuviano con compiti di monitoraggio hanno intensificato le campagne di misura di tutti i parametri fisici e chimici utili alla definizione del fenomeno in atto.
REPLY: Yes, there is an extraordinary number of volcanoes starting to come alive. Campi Flegrei is a serious supervolcano.
We will input all the recent activity and see what the computer comes up with.
Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates is just amazing. You have been correlating agriculture and climate as volcanoes that produce major global cooling events. Well, just an observation: Many volcanos are becoming active or erupting simultaneously. Do you see a volcanic winter in the cards?
Sam
ANSWER: There is about a 309.6-year cycle to the big ones that result in volcanic winters. However, that begins with the 43BC eruption Okmok II in Alaska. There is a lack of data that prevents an accurate forecast of such events. However, if we look at just recent recorded events from the 1257 eruption of Samalas volcano on Lombok Island, Indonesia, there appear to be events of this nature on the half-cycle so about 154 years or so. This event of 1257 is now recognized as one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the Holocene epoch.
We have three main sources: Ice Core Data: Sulfate spikes in ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica date to around 1257–1258. Tree rings from 1258–1260 in regions like Europe and North America suggest prolonged cooling and reduced growing seasons. Historical Records from Medieval chronicles, both from Europe and Asia, describe extreme weather in 1258–1259, including unseasonable cold, heavy rains, crop failures, and famines. The English records recorded this as the “year of famine” with widespread starvation. Interestingly, this is why our database on Wheat began in 1259. Because of this crisis, people started to record prices.
This is why I have warned about simultaneous eruptions. There was also a smaller eruption around 1227 (traced to another tropical volcano) may have compounded cooling effects earlier in the century. Thus, this major event may have magnified the volcanic winter.
A giant volcano in Alaska is showing signs of an impending eruption. Significantly elevated levels of volcanic gas emissions were recently observed around Mount Spurr, which is located 75 miles from Anchorage and is home to nearly 300,000 people. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) said the emissions ‘confirm’ that new magma is flowing beneath the volcano, indicating a foreseeable eruption.
Small earthquakes were detected at Mount Rainier, Mount St. Helens, and Mount Hood during the past week. These are the Cascade Range. We did have the “Volcan de Fuego,” or Volcano of Fire, blowing a thick ash cloud, seen from Palin, Guatemala, on Monday, March 10, 2025. This is more of my concern. Numerous volcanoes can have an accumulative effect.
I can say that a low in 2025 points to higher prices ahead.
The attached report on Global Weather for January 2024 Data has charts showing the relationship between CO2 growth and Temperature increases going up since we started to accurately measure CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958. These Charts were created by showing CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by about ~34.0% from 1958 to January 2024. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.
Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature also from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the actual change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) is about ~.3% and may reach .5% by 2028. To even be able to see this minuscule change we had to reduce the scale of the Temperature Axis by a factor of ten.
This Chart 8 uses unaltered values from NOAA and NASA properly displayed ,and the Blue and Yellow projections are created by Microsoft Excel not me.
The NOAA and NASA numbers tell us the story of the Very Small Changes in the temperature of the planets Atmosphere As Carbon Dioxide goes up geometrically.
QUESTION: The criticism of your Economic Confidence Model has been that it oversimplifies complex economies, ignoring variables like policy changes or technological shifts. Would you address that?
DL
ANSWER: This emanates from the economic academic community that is Marist based that rests on the assumption that they can steer the economy through economic disturbances. I had a conversation with Paul Volcker. He told me that the business cycle can’t be defeated and agreed it was about 8 years.
I find the criticism of the ECM is always academic because they want to have theories on how to manage the economy, so hire them. Anyone I have spoken with over the years who actually has real live experience knows that the government has NEVER been able to steer the economy to eliminate booms and busts.
Schumpeter also tried to figure out what was behind the business cycle. He saw the human innovation and how the invention of the automobile put all the horse & buggy people out of business. The development of the internet has put a lot of small local businesses into bankruptcy. COVID-19 accomplished the deliberate climate change agenda to stop people from commuting to work and also put local businesses out of operation as you can order online. These are innovations that are part of his Waves of Creative Destruction.
When Valerian I was captured, and Rome could not rescue him, the confidence in the Empire began to collapse. People were even suddenly skeptical about accepting Roman coins because their purchasing power was in excess of the metal content. Would they still be worth anything beyond the metal content? What is interesting is that the final collapse from 260 AD when Valerian was captured by the Persians, was just about 8.6 years.
A document from Egypt has survived, illustrating the financial crisis that was unleashed. It is from Aurelius Ptolemaeus, who is the strategus of the Oxyrhynchitenome. The public officials gathered and accused the bankers of closing their doors on account of their unwillingness to accept the divine coins of the Emperors. It became necessary that an order had to be issued to all the owners of the banks directing them to open, accept, and exchange all coins except the absolutely spurious and counterfeit. It was also directed that all who engaged in business transactions who refused to comply would be penalized. (POxy 1411 260AD, cited by Burnett 1987: p104)
This frequency has emerged for thousands of years. My critics are the typical Marxists who came up with the theory that economists can manipulate society to eliminate the business cycle, which they claim does not exist. I was told that in high school. There is no business cycle because Keynesian economics eliminated that. They have NEVER been able to achieve their goal of eliminating the business cycle but reject the ECM because they are too ignorant to even look at the world that not a single empire has ever lasted because history repeats since human nature never changes throughout the centuries.
Changes in policy? Wage and price controls were incorporated into Hammurabi’s legal code. The Roman Emperor Diocletian issued a decree trying to regulate inflation and prevent the decline of the Roman monetary system. He failed. There is absolutely no historical evidence whatsoever to support their claims that they alone can steer the economy to eliminate the booms and busts they do not want to admit is a business cycle beyond their ability even to comprehend.
Even climate has a cycle; civilizations expand when they get warm and contract when they turn cold. Everything is part of it; things like the weather also provoke changes. The first Clean Air Act was passed in 535AD. Look, my critics are like government employees fighting against DOGE. If there is a business cycle that they cannot stop, then they have no job. They must call the ECM pseudoscience, but every major scientific innovation began with the label pseudoscience. Even Galileo was imprisoned for defending the idea that Earth and other planets revolve around the sun. His ideas were labeled pseudoscience, and a nut claiming the Earth revolved around the Sun – OMG! Even in medicine, the idea that stomach ulcers were caused by an infection was laughed at but is now accepted.
Vaccines were first considered pseudoscience. Before Edward Jenner, there were other practices like variolation used in China and the Ottoman Empire. They exposed individuals to smallpox scabs to induce immunity. It was not some academic theory. Then Jenner comes along in the late 1700s with cowpox. He noticed that milkmaids who had cowpox didn’t get smallpox. So he tested it on a boy, James Phipps. That worked, and that’s considered the first vaccine. But back then, understanding germs and the immune system was nonexistent. They didn’t know about viruses or antibodies.
The MNRA vaccine was not a vaccine. Dr. Deborah Birx, who was advocating the lockdowns, now says she ‘knew‘ COVID vaccines would not ‘protect against infection’ yet she advocated locking down the economy, causing major unemployment and loss of jobs if people refused to get vaccinated. That was pseudoscience, for there was not even observational evidence that locking down the economy would work, and she knew that this pretend “vaccine” was not a traditional vaccine created from the virus itself, as was smallpox.
So, from our modern perspective, the method was unscientific, but they were based on empirical observation. That is what Adam Smith did. He engaged in actual observation. That is what I have done with the ECM. That is why some academics criticize me because it goes against their confined established science, which even Keynes admitted he was wrong before he died, Paul Volcker admitted their thories failed in 1979, and Arthur Burns, the Fed Chairman when Bretton Woods collapsed, also admitted that the business cycle always wins.
To them, learning from observation amounts to pseudoscience when it criticizes their beliefs. I PUBLISHED THE LIST I DISCOVERED and explained that I thought it was an average. I had no idea it would turn out to be more precise, yet because it was a list of panics internationally, it was not confined to a single cause like commodities. No trend lasts forever. Yet even with Climate Change, these people claim the temperature rose 1 degree this year, so it will continue, and we will all die in 50 years. That is like saying the stock market rose 1000 points this year, so it will continue every year for the next 50. A trader with experience understands that their stupid theories are impossible and have never worked even once.
Posted originally on Feb 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Imagine handing a $2 billion grant to an organization that produced $100 in revenue. This is precisely what happened under Joe Biden’s watch when the EPA approved a $2 billion payout to yet another climate-related non-profit that acted as a political slush fund for the liberal elite. There is NO possible way to defend this blatant corruption.
Power Forward Communities is a non-profit climate activism organization linked to Biden chorine Stacey Abrahms. I will never refrain from repeating that the INFLATION REDUCTION ACT WAS A CLIMATE CHANGE SLUSH FUND. Joe Biden admitted the entire premise of America’s largest spending package was all designed under the guise of climate change. The people were completely deceived into believing the act would address inflation. The new administration is continuing to peel back the layers of where the funds from that $2.7 trillion package actually went.
Once more, the Inflation Reduction Act went beyond Biden and the US. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted the truth behind the Inflation Reduction Act as well: “The Inflation Reduction Act is, at its core, about turning the climate crisis into an economic opportunity,” Yellen clearly stated. It provided the government with an opportunity to eliminate our energy independence. We did not have an energy crisis before Joe Biden took office. His campaign was built around the globalist BUILD BACK BETTER agenda to sacrifice one’s nation to usher in the Great Reset. The World Economic Forum put it in writing that knocking down America was part of the plan, and people still voted for Biden. Then everyone acted surprised when he plummeted our nation’s economy as if that wasn’t his platform from the beginning.
Over $360 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act was set aside specifically for climate change initiatives. Where are those funds now? So far, it seems the money spent was funneled through various agencies linked directly to the Democrats. Grants were not awarded based on merit but recklessly handed out to whoever had their hand out. The majority of these so-called non-profits have done very little with the money they were awarded, as transparency was intentionally avoided.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, created through the Inflation Reduction Act, deemed it necessary to pay Power Forward $2 billion. Now, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin revealed that his agency awarded eight different climate agencies a total of $20 billion under Biden. Project Veritas filmed a former EPA employee explaining how they were directed to spend as much as possible before Trump took office, comparing their actions to throwing gold bars off the Titanic.
Stacey Abrams serves as senior counsel at Rewiring America, one of the founding groups of Power Forward Communities. This woman has a track record of financial mismanagement. Abrahms was $200,000 in debt back in 2018 before her net worth grew to $3.17 million by 2022. Abrahms admitted that she accumulated hundreds of thousands in debt due to student loans, credit card debt, and back taxes because rules for thee but not me. Still, they insisted she could manage the budget of the state of Georgia during her failed bid for governor. Her refusal to concede made her an activist figure for the left, and she profited off her political celebrity status. But did she EARN her millions?
Power Forward has done nothing thus far but suddenly wants to spend $539 million in the coming weeks on energy-efficient housing. Zeldin would like that money back. The taxpayers should demand that the money be returned. Imagine if Donald Trump awarded $2 billion to an organization that earned less than a child’s lemonade stand and had connections to a conservative ally? The absolute corruption of the past administration is unbelievable as they robbed the public blind for climate, migrants, war, and personal gain.
Posted originally on Feb 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I remember you saying that Pope Francis would not be the last pope and that he would not last until 2032. Well, your critique of St. Malachy’ will be correct. Francis is not the last pope and he is in critical condition right now at 89 years old.
Mathew
REPLY: St. Malachy’s prophecy is interesting, but many consider it a hoax. I found it curious that his last 112th Pope in his prophecy concludes with “Peter the Roman,“ whose pontificate will allegedly precede the destruction of the city of Rome since Peter is considered the first Pope. The founder of Rome was Romulus, and the first emperor was Augustus. The last emperor of Western Rome has the name Romulus Augustus (475-476AD). Cyclically, Rome ended with the emperor, who had the first name. If St. Malachy’s prophecy is correct, the next pope would take Peter. Then, with Europe pushing for World War III to strip mine Russia’s $75 trillion in assets, perhaps if the next pope become Peter, this would be very interesting. That would call into question the theory that it was a hoax. If we take from 1148, Pope Francis is only #99 – not 111. We will have to wait and see. But this prophecy does not seem to add up with history.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 