Tag Archives: 8.6 year cycle

Mar 2 2023

The test that exonerates CO2


The test that exonerates CO2

The test that exonerates CO2

6 days ago

Guest Blogger

521 Comments

By Javier Vinós

Most people don’t have a clear understanding of the greenhouse effect (GHE). It is not complicated to understand, but it is usually not well explained. It is often described as “heat-trapping,” but that is incorrect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) do not trap heat, even if more heat resides within the climate system due to their presence in the atmosphere. The truth is that after adjusting to a change in GHG levels, the planet still returns all the energy it receives from the Sun. Otherwise, it would continue warming indefinitely. So, there is no change in the energy returned. How do GHGs produce GHE?

GHGs cause the atmosphere to be more opaque to infrared radiation. As solar radiation heats mainly the ocean and land surface of the planet, GHGs absorb thermal emission from the surface at the lower troposphere and immediately pass that energy along to other molecules (typically N2 and O2) through collisions that occur much faster than the time it would take to re-emit the radiation. This warms the lower troposphere. The density and temperature decrease rapidly through the troposphere, so molecules are colder and more separated at the upper troposphere. Now GHGs have a chance to emit IR radiation so when they finally collide with another molecule, they are colder so GHGs have a cooling effect in the upper troposphere and stratosphere.

Because GHGs make the atmosphere more opaque to IR radiation, when they are present the emission to space from the planet normally does not take place from the surface (as happens in the Moon). Part of it still takes place from the surface through the atmospheric window, but most of it takes place from higher in the atmosphere. We can define a theoretical effective emission height as the average height at which the Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is being emitted. The temperature at which the Earth emits is the temperature at the effective emission height in the atmosphere. That temperature, when measured from space is 250 K (-23°C), not 255 which is the calculated temperature for a theoretical blackbody Earth. That temperature corresponds to a height of about 5 km, which we call the effective emission height.

The last piece we need to understand the GHE is the lapse rate, which in the troposphere is positive, meaning that temperature decreases with height. Without a positive lapse rate, the GHE does not work. Since GHGs cause the planet to emit from a higher altitude, due to making the atmosphere more opaque to IR radiation, that altitude is colder due to the lapse rate. The Earth still needs to return all the energy received from the Sun, but colder molecules emit less. So, the planet will go through a period when it will emit less than it should, warming the surface and the lower troposphere until the new height of emission achieves the temperature necessary to return all the energy, at which point the planet stops warming.

The GHE simply states that the temperature at the surface (Ts) is just the temperature of emission (Te) plus the lapse rate (Γ) times the height of emission (Ze).


Ts = Te + ΓZe

Held & Soden (2000) illustrated it in figure 1:



This is how the GHE actually works. An increase in CO2 means an increase in the height of emission. Since the temperature of emission must remain the same, the temperature from the surface to the new height of emission must increase. The increase is small but significant. As Held and Soden say:



“The increase in opacity due to a doubling of CO2 causes Ze to rise by ≈150 meters. This results in a reduction in the effective temperature of the emission across the tropopause by ≈(6.5K/km) (150 m) ≈1 K.”Held and Soden

So, the temperature at the surface must increase by 1K. That’s the direct warming caused by the doubling of CO2, before the feedbacks (mainly water vapor) kick in, further raising the height of emission.

This also has an interesting prediction. If the warming is due to an increase in CO2 when the increase takes place and the altitude of emission increases, the planet should emit less OLR as the new altitude is colder and a reduced OLR is the warming mechanism. Once the warming takes place, the OLR will become the same as before the GHG increase. It says so in Held and Soden’s figure 1 caption: “Note that the effective emission temperature (Te) remains unchanged.” Same Te, same OLR. So, if CO2 is responsible for the surface temperature increase, we should first expect less OLR and then the same OLR. If at any time we detect more OLR that would indicate another cause for the warming. Anything that makes the surface warmer, except GHGs, will increase the temperature of emission, increasing OLR.

So, this is the test:

– Surface warming but less or same OLR: CO2 is guilty as charged

– Surface warming and more OLR: CO2 is innocent

And the test results can be evaluated for example with Derwitte and Clerbaux 2018:



“decadal changes of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) as measured by the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System from 2000 to 2018, the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment from 1985 to 1998, and the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder from 1985 to 2018 are analyzed. The OLR has been rising since 1985, and correlates well with the rising global temperature.“Derwitte and Clerbaux 2018

CO2 is innocent. Its fingerprint is not found at the crime scene. Something else is warming the planet and causing the increase in OLR.

Bibliography:

Dewitte, S. and Clerbaux, N., 2018. Decadal changes of earth’s outgoing longwave radiation. Remote Sensing, 10(10), p.1539.
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/10/1539/pdf

Held, I.M. and Soden, B.J., 2000. Water vapor feedback and global warming. Annual review of energy and the environment, 25(1), pp.441-475.
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.441

Stephens, G.L., O’Brien, D., Webster, P.J., Pilewski, P., Kato, S. and Li, J.L., 2015. The albedo of Earth. Reviews of geophysics, 53(1), pp.141-163.

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Mar 1 2023

Markets & Starlings


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Mar 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Martin,

Your blog, “Model & the 1991 Collapse of the USSR” for me was a major thought process change. I believed in the Random Walk down Wallstreet, not any more.

The chaos model example of the Dow Jones reminds me of the migration of the starlings – link attached.

I had a pet Starling, a very smart bird, who loved my computer and even pecked on my keyboard and accidentally sent an email one time.

I have even observed butterflies flying against the wind on a windy day by navigating within the calm currents of the wind.

Thank you for showing the pattern of the market.

Ernie

REPLY:  It is truly amazing but there are so many aspects within nature that confirm NOTHING is random – there is a cyclical nature to everything thing. Here are the five Brain Wave patterns. If there is no cycle in your brain – you are dead. So I am always astonished by people who do not believe in cycles and think there really is such a thing as random walks. We need those people because they are the fools who are easier to separate from their money. They love to buy the high and sell the low. Thank you very much. Keep believing it’s random and the government is really Santa Claus.

And for those flat-word folks who didn’t believe that the earth actually was in a cyclical orbit around the sun, how absurd, don’t forget to put a mask on when you drive alone or when you sleep alone make sure you also put on a condom just to be really safe.

Feb 28 2023

Model & the 1991 Collapse of USSR


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Feb 28, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You never talk about that today. You had said that the migration of reversals would often hint at the next crash or slingshot. That was what we got in 1991 when Russia collapsed. Do you see anything like that again?

I am glad you are still at this. You have great insight as a trader.

If Scotty wants to beam you up, please say not yet!

DZ

ANSWER: Only for you Dave. Your memory is better than an elephant’s. OMG, how black was my beard. I also had some hair back then. Yes, you are right. I probably have not written here about the strange manner in which markets do move. Yes, the USSR collapse by the end of that year. There was the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev.

The Quarterly Array back then picked the 4th quarter of 1991 and the 4th quarter of 1992. The first was a Panic breakout to the upside and the second was a Panic to the downside making the reaction low the week of October 10th, 1992. The reversals were clearly fractal in nature and key reversals will reappear and migrate through the various time levels. That was something which was very fascinating. I promise I will find the time to express more detail on that phenomenon. It was indeed another aspect that the model revealed that I never expected. There is such a hidden order that lies behind the mask of randomness.

People who talk about random walks are simply incapable of forecasting for they cannot see the order behind what they think is chaos. Just as Einstein said, he cannot believe that God plays dice with the universe. I discovered the same thing when it comes to market activity. There is no such thing as random walks. There is a secret order to everything.

When I went to economics class, they said there was a business cycle but it is not regular and cannot be predicted because it was random. Then I went to physics class and they said nothing is random. I came to the conclusion someone was lying. It turned out to be the economics professor. Larry Summers still maintains that view. Hence, economists can manipulate society if it is random – not predetermined.

In plotting what Lorenz thought was random weather data, what emerged was a hidden order that we could not see otherwise. This even disproves the entire nonsense of Climate Change. It has always changed and there is a pattern to the movement – it is not random and we have not altered the climate cycle. Again, it is the same type of people who cannot see the patterns in markets so they say it is a random walk.

I ran markets through our Chaos models and patterns of regularity emerged – not random walks. Again, there is far more order to markets and that is why personal opinions will never cut it when we are trying to forecast the future.

I have on my bucket list to do the next book on the ECM – my gift to posterity. Hopefully, one-day people will wake up and understand that there is a hidden order to everything – NOTHING is ever random. When the USSR collapsed, the capital again fled to the USA in the face of a new level of uncertainty. The New Yorker ran the article on me in 2009 and called it  – The Secret Cycle.

Feb 24 2023

What Will our Collective Future Look Like in the Year 2050? Part One, the Background


The picture below is a good visual example of what those that want to rule us i.e. Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, George Soros, Barack Obama and yes even Anthony Fauci would like it to be. I do not, for one second, think this is an exaggeration.  

Obviously, this is not a picture that any one that is not a multi billionaire would want to experience but there is one person on the planet that demands that this is what our future will be. That person is Klaus Schwab the creator of the World Economic Form (WEF). So what is the WEF? The WEF is an international non-government organization (NGO) founded by Klaus Schwab on January 24, 1971and located in Switzerland. The stated goal is to improving the status of the entire world. This is accomplished by training potential Global leaders on how best to rule the world and conducting an annual meeting in Davos Switzerland.  

Schwab’s goal is to have every country on the planet be a member of the United Nations (UN) and relinquish their sovereignty to the UN. The UN would then after this was achieved be run by the unelected people that Schwab has trained in his Young Leaders program; comprising tens of thousands of people today. Most of the international corporations and governments are now run by these Schwab people.  

His programs can be found in two books he wrote; The Fourth Industrial Revolution published in 2016 and COVID-19: The Great Reset published in 2020. The core of Schwab’s vision is a modification of the theories of Karl Marx undated to the modern world. The basic essence of Schwab’s vision can be derived from the work of Patrick M. Woods in his book Technocracy Rising The Trojan House of Global Transformation published in 2015. 

Schwab is not an uneducated man; and and has multiple degrees. And like many men of his intellect he dreams of creating the perfect world, written about for the first time by Thomas More in his book Utopia published in 1516. Since then others have tried to find the way to accomplish the lofty goal with that last serious attempt by Karl Marx in his works Capital Volumes I, II and III resulting in the deaths of hundreds of millions in the twentieth century mostly in Russia and China which all failed.

The current attempt by Schwab in creating this elusive goal of a Utopia is The Great Reset and Build Back Better program; which has been adopted by most of the countries in Western Civilization. The Great Reset was started with the planned introduction of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yes I did say planned and the two men responsible for it were Bill Gates and Anthony Fauci. The prove of it in all the initial planning for a pandemic and the work of Fauci in creating the virus (COVID-19) as identified in the book publish by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The Real Anthony Fauci. Gates, from a family of hard core Eugenic promoters, masterminded his reduction of the world population in the late 1990’s or early 2000’s by adopting the Global Warming narrative developed by the Environmental crowd of Marxists after they took over the movement from the real scientists looking at the real environmental issues.  

Patrick Moore one of the founders of Green Peace was drummed out when that changed accrued  and is the only one left from that movement that truly understands what happened and how the Climate change narrative has no basis in fact as you can read about in his book Confessions of a Greenpeace Dropout. There is absolutely no truth in the current narrative that Carbon dioxide is a Clear and Present Danger to the world and must be eliminated. There is actually solid scientific evidence that Carbon dioxide is “not” a Clear and Present Danger to us or the planet.

  What Schwab and Gates have done is combine the views of both of men into one master program that will be discussed in Part Two.

Feb 15 2023

Mining Expansion for Green Energy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Feb 15, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

MiningWatch Canada is estimating that 3 billion tons of mined metals and minerals will be needed to power the energy transition. All of this nonsense for climate change means that mining for minerals will escalate dramatically. There will be an incredible expansion in the mining industry for six critical minerals: lithium, graphite, copper, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth minerals. What is really just insane is that even if this green energy were to last, over the next 30 years, we will have to increase the production of these minerals consuming more that all the past generations combined.  Our What-If models project copper at 9-10 by 2028 shutting down fossil fuels.

Feb 10 2023

Death Toll in Turkey/Syria Earthquake Climbs Above 20,000 – With an Estimated 6,500 Buildings Collapsed


Posted originally on the CTH on February 9, 2023 | Sundance 

Hopes are fading amid the rescue and recovery workers in the aftermath of the horrific earthquake that hit southern Turkey and northern Syria.  Reuters is providing an update on the devastation in the region.  The scale of the impact is widespread and devastating as even more recovery workers continue arriving.

ANTAKYA, Turkey/JANDARIS, Syria, Feb 9, (Reuters) – Cold, hunger and despair gripped hundreds of thousands of people left homeless after the earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria three days ago as the death toll passed 20,000 on Thursday.

The rescue of a 2-year-old boy after 79 hours trapped in the rubble of a collapsed building in Hatay, Turkey, and several other people raised spirits among weary search crews. But hopes were fading that many more would be found alive in the ruins of towns and cities.

[…] Hundreds of thousands of people in both countries have been left homeless in the middle of winter. Many have camped out in makeshift shelters in supermarket car parks, mosques, roadsides or amid the ruins, often desperate for food, water and heat.

[…] Authorities say some 6,500 buildings in Turkey collapsed and countless more were damaged.

The death toll in Turkey rose to 17,406, Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said. In Syria, already devastated by nearly 12 years of civil war, more than 3,300 people have died, according to the government and a rescue service in the rebel-held northwest.

In the devastated Syrian town of Jandaris, Ibrahim Khalil Menkaween walked in the rubble-strewn streets clutching a white body bag. He said he had lost seven members of his family, including his wife and two of his brothers.

“I’m holding this bag for when they bring out my brother, and my brother’s young son, and both of their wives, so we can pack them in bags,” he said. “The situation is very bad. And there is no aid.”

Turkish officials say some 13.5 million people were affected in an area spanning roughly 450 km (280 miles) from Adana in the west to Diyarbakir in the east. In Syria, people were killed as far south as Hama, 250 km from the epicentre.

Rescue crews looked for survivors at the site of a collapsed building in the dark in the city of Adiyaman with temperatures below freezing, Turkish broadcasters showed.

[…] There were still some signs of hope.

A 2-year-old boy was picked out of the rubble by a Romanian and Polish rescue team in Hatay 79 hours after the earthquake, video released by Turkey’s Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) on Thursday showed.

The boy, wearing a blue, white and black striped sweater, cried as he was gently lifted from the hole where he had been trapped. He was carried away on a blanket. No other details were immediately available.

Another video from IHH showed a helmeted and dust-streaked rescuer weeping with emotion after successfully freeing a little girl from the rubble of a collapsed building in Kahramanmaras. (read more)

All-powerful Father, as we see all of the destruction caused by this natural disaster, we mourn for all that has been lost and the fragility of this life.

Lord God of mercy, please comfort those who have lost somebody they love, and those who are yet still searching. Give them comfort and peace.

Heavenly Father, be a protective wing for those who have survived, but lost their home. Grant the men, women and children the needed fortitude and assistance they need to recover and rebuild.  Show me how best to pray for their needs and guide my prayer. 

Lord God of all creation, be strong with directed purpose for those whose job it is to search through the rubble for those lost.  Give them endurance and strength as they complete their responsibilities.

God of comfort and mercy, help us come together as one body in You during this time of tragedy.

You are the redeemer, the source of all strength and courage, please provide us with reassurance, humanity and faith. 

In Your holy and merciful name, we humbly kneel and pray. 

~ Amen.

Feb 9 2023

Earthquakes in Turkey/Syria


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Feb 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Double Earthquake that hit Turkey & Syria has been extraordinary. The first quake was a 7.8 magnitude sticking in southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria early Monday morning local time. Then 9 hours later, a second quake, which recorded a magnitude of 7.5, struck hard. Both countries have witnessed the devastating aftermath as rescue workers on the ground are reporting that nearly 12,000 people have been killed as a result of the quakes, and tens of thousands more have been injured. Thousands of buildings have also been reduced to rubble.

This region is prone to these major DOUBLE earthquakes. Overall, since the major earthquake of 17AD that was so created a financial panic in Rome and forced Emperor Tiberius to issue these coins noting that they were for the relief of that region,  there have been 81 major earthquakes. There have been many double earthquakes and the previous was in 2017 June 12th and July 21st. Before that in 2011, there was a Double Earthquake on the 23rd of October and then on November 9th.

What is unusual this time is the time differential was only 9 hours rather than days. This raises the concern that this event may not be over just yet.

Feb 7 2023

Major Media is Never Interested in Forecasting


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Feb 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, it has become obvious that the media promotes everyone but you. I have attended your WEC events and have met central bankers and people from all the major investment banks both in Hong Kong and at your Berlin Conference. The media avoids you like the plague. But everyone of any substance attends your events. Obviously, the media avoids you to suppress the truth when those in power listen to you. Very interesting.

Can’t wait for Dubai

FW

ANSWER: What I do know is that the major media needs its talking heads. It is irrelevant if what they say is right or wrong. It is only the content they need. They do not want someone like me telling the world what you preach about interest rates is not just wrong, it hurts a lot of people.

I was doing a TV spot I think in 1983. It was FNN that became CNBC. I was doing an interview with Walter Bressert. I gave our forecast that the British pound would fall to par by 1985. The pound was near the $2 level at the time so it was a 50% drop. The host was shocked. He turned to Walt and asked – “What do you think about that forecast?” Walt and I were good friends. He replied, “I would not bet against his computer.”

That was the last time I was on FNN. They want the standard BS. They do not want real analysis, especially long-term which our computer has been the best at compared to anyone. So, I’m not sure it is some conspiracy plot. I think it’s just self-interest. Major media will occasionally cover our forecasts, but generally only after the events.

Barrons had reported our forecast from 2010 that the stock market would make new highs, only when they thought it was a joke. When it happened, they never reported that we were the only ones with that forecast.

Major media is not interested in actual forecasting. They only fill content. They just need the talking heads. They do not care if they are ever right. They are selling content – not real analysis. Even the BBC wrote about the economic forecast at DAVOS on how they are always just wrong. They wrote: “There is just one problem: economists have a poor track record for getting it right.” Why? Simply. When people forecast they are expressing an opinion. They are influenced by the current trend and as such, they can never see in advance the change in that trend.

Our computer is usually correct on the long-term trends. It has never missed a shift in the business cycle that I can recall. The media is just not interested in something like that. They want the controversy and personal opinions for they themselves form personal opinions just as they have bought into Climate Change and now they are promoting World War III.

Feb 7 2023

Horrific Death Toll Continues Rising from Earthquake in Turkey/Syria as Aftershocks Continue – So Far 5,600 Buildings Have Collapsed


Posted originally on the CTH on February 6, 2023 | Sundance

I did not have internet access for most of today, another long-term recovery issue.  However, now that I am seeing the footage of the earthquake in Southern Turkey and Northern Syria, my prayers are for all of those in the region.  The devastation is just incredible.

According to the Associated Press, 5,600 buildings have collapsed and several of them came down today during aftershocks amid search and rescue operations.  The current recorded death toll is over 4,300 people, with the World Health Organization (WHO) predicting the total loss of life could exceed 20,000.  This is just horrific.

The estimated 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit over an area of several major population centers. The Guardian reports, “the population of the ten provinces in southern Turkey affected by the earthquakes are home to 13.5 million people. So far, according to the Andalou agency, more than 5,600 buildings have collapsed.

It is just after 6am in Turkey, and we’re seeing stories of people rescued after a very long day and night, which means they survived not only the rubble’s collapse but the cold. There are many, many more who have not yet been found, with the WHO predicting the death toll could reach 20,000 in the coming days. For now, here are videos of a three-year-old toddler and a woman who were freed from collapsed buildings by rescuers.” (link)

(Via Reuters) […] The magnitude 7.8 quake brought down whole apartment blocks in Turkish cities and piled more devastation on millions of Syrians displaced by years of war. It struck before sunrise in harsh weather and was followed in the early afternoon by another large quake.

In Diyarbakir in southeast Turkey, a woman speaking next to the wreckage of the seven-storey block where she lived said: “We were shaken like a cradle. There were nine of us at home. Two sons of mine are still in the rubble, I’m waiting for them.”

She was nursing a broken arm and had injuries to her face.

“It was like the apocalypse,” said Abdul Salam al-Mahmoud, a Syrian in the northern town of Atareb. “It’s bitterly cold and there’s heavy rain, and people need saving.” (more)

All-powerful Father, as we see all of the destruction caused by this natural disaster, we mourn for all that has been lost and the fragility of this life.

Lord God of mercy, please comfort those who have lost somebody they love, and those who are yet still searching. Give them comfort and peace.

Heavenly Father, be a protective wing for those who have survived, but lost their home. Grant the men, women and children the needed fortitude and assistance they need to recover and rebuild.  Show me how best to pray for their needs and guide my prayer. 

Lord God of all creation, be strong with directed purpose for those whose job it is to search through the rubble for those lost.  Give them endurance and strength as they complete their responsibilities.

God of comfort and mercy, help us come together as one body in You during this time of tragedy.

You are the redeemer, the source of our strength and courage, please provide us with reassurance, humanity and faith. 

In Your holy and merciful name, we humbly kneel and pray. 

Amen.

Jan 30 2023

Can Forecasting be Infallible?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Jan 30, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you think that Socrates will ever achieve infallibility?

KJ

ANSWER:  I have only shown our Global Market Watch model at conferences. It is a pattern recognition model that is learning every day. I have pointed out that nothing is infallible but if anything can achieve that, it will be this model. Right now, it’s not too bad, but it is still in its infancy. What has shocked me more than anything is that it has identified over 80,000 patterns. This is incredible to me. However, it explains why it is impossible for a person to actually forecast correctly. There are so many subtle variances that something may not be what we think is unfolding.

Eventually, it is theoretically possible that we reach some limitations of the pattern variances. If that can be achieved, then and only then would you be able to forecast infallibly.

Yet there is something else of tremendous importance. Socrates has been virtually infallible on the long-term trends and events. What I have come to understand is that there are so many possible variations in the day-to-day trends, but it does not alter the long-term. It projected a financial panic in 2008 10 years in advance. How do so many events unfold to the very day of the Economic Confidence Model? All I can say is that these events, which have nothing to do with my personal opinion, confirm that there is a hidden order of complexity that the make human eye cannot possibly see. There are just way too many events that unfold precisely on the very day of a target to be just coincidence. There is a far greater order that exists and people will disparage these forecasts because they think they only work because we have a huge client base.