QUESTION: Marty, you said 2023 will be chaotic in politics. What is going on with McCarthy I guess is what you were referring to at the WEC.
Thanks. Your forecasts are always amazing
DK
ANSWER: What is taking place with McCarthy is precisely what the model has forecast. He lost the 11th attempt to elect him on the third day of voting. This is right on schedule. It is 19 intervals of 8.6 since a similar event took place in 1859. Back then, the fight was over slavery and the House voted 44 times to pick a speaker between December 5th, 1859, to February 1st, 1860 (1860.087) and settled for a freshman William Pennington (1796-1862) of New Jersey. Ironically, I raised my kids in Pennington, NJ which was founded by his father William Sanford Pennington around 1643.
This fight over McCarthy the press is loving it but it’s going over the heads of everyone. This is about resisting the inherent corruption in Washington for McCarty is just the Republican counterpart of Pelosi and it will be business as usual. Both parties are pushing us to civil war and from a cyclical turning point, it was at 4:30 a.m. on April 12, 1861 (1861.279), when Confederate troops fired on Fort Sumter in South Carolina’s Charleston Harbor. That began the US Civil War and cyclically we are right on schedule. Thus, the Civil War began 1.192 years after the speaker’s election. Cyclically, that aligns up with 2024 and the ECM turning point.
We are looking at a serious fight that is reflective of the deep division in this country over the direction of the nation. The BBC reported that McCarthy’s team had threatened political retaliation against them if they did not fall in line, in the weeks leading up to this deadlock. You must understand, the Speaker picks who is on what committee. John Boehner who was the 53rd Speaker from January 5th, 2011 – October 29th, 2015, retaliated against Ron Paul removing every Republican who supported him from any finance committee. It is a UNI-Party that people do not understand exists. McCarthy is no better than Boehner, who I also did not support.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 7, 2023 | Sundance
Republican Representative Mike Rogers (House Armed Services Committee Chair) was furious when Kevin McCarthy came up one vote short in his effort to become Speaker of the House on ballot #14.
While McCarthy tried to convince Florida Representative Matt Gaetz to change his vote, Mike Rogers came into the picture to fight and had to be physically restrained. The event was captured on C-SPAN camera. Video at 01:20 Prompted:
Posted originally on the CTH on January 6, 2023 | Sundance
How many months ago did CTH start saying ‘watch Mexico’? Having said that, what is unfolding right now in the battle between the Sinaloa cartel and the Mexican military is fraught with unknown variables and hidden U.S. interests.
Use the example of the U.S. manipulating Ukraine as the reference point for what is happening in Mexico right now with Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau scheduled to visit Mexico City in four days for the North American Summit.
It’s all sketchy. Do not formulate opinions because we have no idea how many peas and shells are being maneuvered by U.S. intelligence and national security state interests.
We are told the Mexican military arrested Ovidio Guzman-Lopez, the son of El Chapo, who it is claimed to be running the drug cartel Culiacan, Sinaloa state. Some form of Mexican or U.S. military unit, contractor or federal office with guns and big juice then transferred Ovidio Guzman-Lopez to Mexico City where the summit is supposed to take place.
The Sinaloa cartel has now begun a rampage of revenge across the Sinaloa state attacking, police, government buildings, transportation, airports and planes, setting vehicles ablaze and setting up roadblocks. At least seven Mexican security force personnel are reported to have been killed in clashes where the government was trying to retake control. Eight civilians are also reported dead.
The battle between authorities and the Sinaloa cartel has seen the gang’s members open fire at army planes in an attack on Culiacan International Airport, with one seen using a 50-caliber sniper rifle to aim at jets. The cartel has given the Mexican government a deadline of three days to return Guzman-Lopez before they declare war on the entire government and begin killing state and federal officials along with their families.
Should be a great North American summit, eh? Again, just like the Ukraine issues as they unfolded, take nothing for granted, accept no media premise as promoted and question everything you might read about the events. When U.S. political and intelligence interests are involved; ultimately, we have no idea who is doing what – and why?
Fox News began broadcasting events on Jesse Waters television show tonight. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:
Posted originally on the CTH on January 6, 2023 | Sundance
The House is scheduled to begin the effort for the installation of California Representative Kevin McCarthy at 10:00pm ET. It is unknown whether the 14th ballot effort will succeed or exactly how many representatives are still in DC for the activity. The livestream is below:
UPDATE:
Round 14 fails for McCarthy by one vote. 232 votes cast. McCarthy got 216 – one vote short of majority.
Representative Mike Rogers (AL) tried to fight Matt Gaetz and had to be restrained. (LINK)
GOP tried to adjourn. Voice vote failed and failed counting of yeas and nays. House cannot adjourn.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 6, 2023 | Sundance
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the December jobs report today [DATA HERE] showing 223,000 jobs gained in December ’22.
Most of the job growth was in the “leisure and hospitality” sector (+67,000), healthcare (+55,000), construction (+28,000) and social assistance (+20,000). Additionally, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, with a year-over-year measure of wage growth at 4.6%.
At this point in the history of our economic pretending game, we are well aware the employment numbers are heavily manipulated in order to support the government policymaking that is destroying the same workforce they claim to represent. It’s all a ruse, just look around your community and you will see what I am talking about.
The financial pundits, Wall Street, government policy makers and various individuals and economic gaslighters are concerned that worker wage growth could drive inflation. This is one of the most aggravating aspects to reviewing the majority of economic punditry. [Example:]
This knuckleheaded narrative engineer from the New York Times/Atlantic even has the audacity to say, “let prices continue to fall to target,” as if there is a single item at any price that is dropping. His spin is a good example of gaslighting just from the use of the statement “price inflation is falling back towards where we want it.”
Price inflation is not price. ‘Price inflation’ is the rate of increase. There’s a BIG DIFFERENCE between “inflation falling back” and prices dropping. Inflation falling back is merely a lessening of the rate of price increase. The price does not drop, and never will.
This reality is why it is infuriating to see government policymakers and pundits decry wage growth as a bad thing that might cause inflation.
Government monetary, fiscal and energy policy created inflation. Devalued currency from spending, simultaneous to massive government policy changes driving up supply side energy costs, exploded inflation.
Prices for energy, oil, gas, home heating, fuel and food all skyrocketed as a result. Workers need pay raises to afford these essential costs of life. However, the same people who created the inflation are now worried that wage rate increases may drive inflation. The mindset at work here is infuriating.
Consider these empirical data points. In August of 2021 the Biden administration permanently increased food stamp benefits by 25% for everyone who needed the subsidy {LINK}. This permanent benefit increase was delivered at the same time as the administration was claiming “inflation was transitory.” They knew it wasn’t transitory. They were lying.
The Social Security Benefits were also raised in 2022 by 8.7% for the largest ever cost of living adjustment in 2023 {LINK}. Both the 25% food stamp increase and the 8.7% SSI COLA were needed to offset the inflation created by government policy…. However, the same government doesn’t want wages to rise. Can you see the hypocrisy.
Workers are being crushed by the outcomes of policy, and those who created the policy making the outcomes do not want worker wages to offset the policy.
We need to see wage growth in the 20% range just to keep pace with the increased cost of living created by policy. Food costs 40% more, energy 30% more, housing 20% more and the list keeps going.
The prices for many goods have already doubled, worker wages need to compensate for those increases. However, government, Wall Street, corporations and policy makers do not want to see wage growth that will offset the price of goods because they fear those wage gains will drive inflation.
The financial media, Wall Street, govt policy makers (republican & democrats) and corporations are lying to us and simultaneously killing the working-class. We, the workforce, are in an abusive relationship with govt…. and they have the nerve to blame us for inflation.
Our food costs +40%, energy +30%, housing +20%, all of it.. with interest rates now climbing, making it worse. Yet, they now clutch pearls and worry about our need for higher wages to afford these costs (from their policy) driving inflation higher?
Yet we are supposed to be concerned about giving an entitled republican control of the speaker position in congress because.. why?
Probably the same reason they want us looking at Ukraine, or transgender issues, or queer/gay rights, or climate change, or (fill_in_the_blank with something Ron DeSantis is promoting) all to keep us from realizing our economic life is being destroyed all around us while this constant and insufferable game of pretending continues.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 6, 2023 | Sundance
Our dear friend Sharon always reminds us, “Those whose motives are based on deception, will always find an audience willing to be deceived.” That, my friends, is the current status of the Republican party watchers and one of the primary reasons this little corner of the internet, The Last Refuge, was formed.
We accept things as they are, not as we would wish them to be and never as we would pretend them to be. Pretending is an endless quest akin to convincing. Those who operate in the world of political pretense expend an exhaustive amount of energy in constant vigilance against those who speak plain truths.
The House of Representatives has adjourned until 10pm tonight, when another vote will be taken, as outlined by the design of the Kevin McCarthy supporters.
Why adjourn? Why return at 10:00pm on a Friday evening? Simply, because the McCarthy team is counting on several House members (mostly Democrats) not being in attendance for the quorum, facilitating a lower threshold of the vote to achieve a majority.
435/434 members present = 218 votes needed 433/432 members present = 217 votes needed 431/430 members present = 216 votes needed 429/428 members present = 215 votes needed etc.
(Washington DC) – […] McCarthy got an additional jolt of energy on the 13th ballot when Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), another previous opponent, also flipped to support him. He still fell short of the necessary majority of those voting present, however, with six GOP members remaining in the no camp.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a moderate and key McCarthy ally, said the chamber hoped to adjourn after the thirteenth ballot to allow allies of the California Republican to sit down one-on-one with his remaining dissenters. As to whether their opposition comes down to McCarthy himself, he said: “We’re gonna find that out.”
And lawmakers then followed suit, voting to adjourn the chamber until 10 p.m. That will tee up a potentially decisive ballot late Friday night.
McCarthy, speaking to the press, said he would have the votes needed for election when it came back into session. (more)
Posted originally on the CTH on January 6, 2023 | Sundance
The twelfth ballot round ended up with Kevin McCarthy receiving 214 votes of support, fourteen more than previous ballot rounds. McCarthy needs 218 votes to succeed (if all members are present).
The following group of 14 Republicans changed their vote to support Kevin McCarthy on the 12th ballot:
Rep. Dan Bishop (N.C.), Rep.-elect Josh Brecheen (Okla.), Rep. Michael Cloud (Texas), Rep. Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Rep. Byron Donalds (Fla.), Rep. Paul Gosar (Ariz.),Rep.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (FL), Rep. Mary Miller (Ill.), Rep. Ralph Norman (S.C.), Rep.-elect Andy Ogles (Tenn.), Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Rep.-elect Keith Self (Texas), and Rep. Victoria Spartz (IN) all voted to support Kevin McCarthy.
The Holdouts are:
Rep. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Rep.-elect Eli Crane (Ariz.), Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Rep. Bob Good (Va.), Rep. Andy Harris (Md.) and Rep. Matt Rosendale (Mont.)
Posted originally on the CTH on January 6, 2023 | Sundance
Day #4 of the House effort to elect a new speaker will continue today with no one asking why only 20 members want to change the rules. The rules are problematic for 20+ members who have refused to vote through eleven ballots for McCarthy, which begs the question. Why do 200 republicans accept giving McCarthy all the power to determine legislative business?
The House returns to session for what is expected to be McCarthy’s 12th attempt to win the gavel. According to Politico, “the GOP leader and his leadership team convened a conference call Friday morning to update members on the status of negotiations, hours after he appeared to gather some momentum late Thursday by hashing out specific concessions to hardline members of the GOP conference — offers that his allies were hopeful would move votes in his direction.
But enormous uncertainty lingered Friday morning, as members of the freedom Caucus had yet to commit their support to McCarthy and a handful of other holdouts continued to signal their opposition to him. Absences on the GOP side of the aisle could scramble things further, with McCarthy backer Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) predicting at least three during Friday’s likely balloting. WATCH:
During the reign of King George III (1760–1820) the first issue of halfpennies actually was not issued until 10 years after his accession to the throne in 1770. Consequently, the vast number of halfpennies in circulation were actually all counterfeits. Indeed, counterfeiting became rampant at first because there was a coin shortage. In 1771, it was declared that counterfeiting copper coins were to be a serious crime. Nevertheless, this really made no difference. Over the course of the next twenty years, the majority of copper coins in circulation were forgeries. Even in the American Colonies, a favorite pastime was to counterfeit British halfpennies.
Coppers of this type are thought to have been minted from mid-1787 through 1788 and probably into 1789. Interestingly, it appears Thomas Machin first produced halfpence dated to the contemporary year as well as examples backdated to 1778. As the mints in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Vermont failed, their equipment ended up at Machin’s Mills. Along with imitation British halfpence, Machin’s Mills also produced illegal Connecticut coppers and some legal Vermont Coppers, with most of their Vermont coins being struck over counterfeit Irish halfpence. The illegal coining operation continued at Machin’s Mills until around early 1790, which was longer than any of the legal mints in New England.
“There is a vast sum in Circulation here of base Copper: to the amount of Several hundreds of thousands of Pounds. very lately these half Pence are refused every where: I suppose in Consequence of some Concerted Scheme. and it is supposed that they will be all purchased for a trifle and Sent to the United States where they will pass for good metal, and consequently our Simple Country men be cheated of an immense sum.2 The Board of Treasury, may be ordered with out the avowed Interposition of Congress, to give the alarm to our Citizens. and the seperate States would do well to prohibit this false Money from being paid or received.3
There was religious tension in Britain that still lingers to this day against Catholics. The Gordon Riots of 1780 took place over several days instigated by the anti-Catholic sentiment that again erupted with the passage of the Papists Act of 1778. That was an attempt to reduce official discrimination against British Catholics with the first legislation of the Popery Act of 1698. At the time, Lord George Gordon was the head of the Protestant Association. He argued that the law would enable Catholics to join the British Army and once in they would then use the army to plot treason. The protest became the excuse to burn people’s possessions, engaged in widespread rioting and looting, and they even used the opportunity to attack both Newgate Prison and the Bank of England. This was by far the most destructive riot in the history of London.
From the mid-1600s, the world money supply was increased largely with copper coins. Russia, in particular, began to overvalue the copper coins. Money is always fiat for its value is typically dictated by the government. Overvaluing copper as in the 17th and 18th centuries, led to the same trend of overvaluing silver during the 19th century. The result of this monetary manipulation by the Russian government led to what became known as the Copper Riots of 1662.
The Russian government began producing copper coins and monetizing them to be of equal value to silver Kopek currency with an average weight of about half of a gram to meet expenses during the mini-Ice Age. The effort failed and silver vanished from circulation as people began hoarding them causing the entire economy to collapse. The copper money was naturally devalued in purchasing power and then there were widespread counterfeiting operations since the official value of the copper coinage became far in excess of the cost of production. The economy collapsed into a deflationary black hole as businesses shut down and unemployment rose dramatically. This erupted into what has become known as the Copper Riots of 1662.
The German bankers, the Fuggers, emerged as the leading Augsburg merchant-banker, who then provided loans to local rulers secured with the silver produce of their mines. The discovery of vast silver mines eventually led to the development in 1525 of the one-ounce silver coin that was the thaler from which we derive the name “dollar” as the alternative to the British pound after the American Revolution. The Joachimsthaler of the Kingdom of Bohemia was therefore the first thaler ideally with a weight of 31 grams or one troy ounce.
As the silver mines were declining, the decline in the supply of silver led to the rise of copper coinage during the next century. This was not an isolated incident confined to Russia. There was a shortage of precious metals going into 1662. It was most profound in Russia. Nevertheless, the price of gold rose sharply from the low of 1655 in a 7-year bull market. This also reflected the deflationary atmosphere that was emerging thanks also to the mini-Ice Age which was peaking during the 17th century yet would last well into the mid-19th century.
It was Spain’s silver mine known as the great red Cerro Rico or ‘Rich Hill’ that towered over the city of Potosí in Bolivia. It had been mined since 1545 by drafted armies of natives. The great silver boom of c1575-1635 was when Potosí alone produced nearly half the world’s silver. But the mine’s yield was starting to decline. By 1678, native workers became scarce and the output of the mines began to dwindle. This was the royal mint that produced vast amounts of ‘pieces of eight’, which became the precursor of the American dollar. The shortage of labor ended up being augmented by purchasing African slaves from the Dutch who were buying them under the pretense that they were the spoils of war, which had been the justification for slaves from ancient times.
As the quantity of new silver in the world monetary system was declining, we begin to see the rise of copper coinage make its first appearance under James I of England (1603-1625). Due to a shortage of small coins, James I authorized John Harrington to issue tin-coated bronze farthings in 1613, and three main types were minted – the last being a slightly larger copper farthing without the tin coating. The first halfpenny was introduced in 1672 by Charles II (1660-1685). Charles II issued some copper halfpennies and farthings in 1672 for a single year but issued farthings again in 1873. The next issue of a farthing was struck in a tin but during 1684 and 1685.
However, in 1694 the Bank of England was established to raise money for King William III’s war against France. The Bank started to issue notes in return for deposits. Therefore, the money supply for the first time began to include paper currency. By 1695 the first fraud took place. The authorities prosecuted Daniel Perrismore for forging sixty £100 notes. This incident caused the Bank of England to introduce a watermark in the paper to prevent such fraud. This was further enhanced by making counterfeiting subjected to the death penalty as a felony resulting in the confiscation of all your wealth and throwing your family out of the street as well. Pictured here, is a protest imitation note. The law was being prosecuted on the mere possession of a forged note. The complaint here was that these one-pound notes were easily forged and innocent people were duped, thereby committing a felony by mere possession. They were being hanged with no proof that they created the forgery – merely that they possessed one. This was creating an incentive not to even accept the notes in transactions.
George I, II, and III all issued copper halfpennies. George III’s halfpennies were dated 1770 to 1772. The economic hard times no doubt contributed to the riots of 1780. After those events, at Newgate Prison in March 1782 a female alleged counterfeiter of halfpennies was hanged. She was then fixed to a stake and burned before the debtor’s door at Newgate prison in London as a further example of not to counterfeit.
In a letter to Lord Hawkesbury on April 14th, 1789, Matthew Boulton, who is considered the Grandfather of modern coinage, commented
“In the course of my journeys, I observe that I receive upon average two-thirds counterfeit halfpence for change at toll-gates, etc., and I believe the evil is daily increasing, as the spurious money is carried into circulation by the lowest class of manufacturers, who pay with it the principal part of the wages of the poor people they employ”.
Boulton’s contract in 1797 to produce the Cartwheel pennies and twopences, thwarting the counterfeiters, did not extend to producing the halfpenny, though Boulton had expected that it would, and had prepared patterns of the appropriate size and weight in accordance with his ideas on the intrinsic value of copper coins. The reason the government gave for the omission of the denomination from the contract was that a large number of de facto halfpennies (including tokens and fakes) would be driven out of circulation and Boulton would be unable to produce enough coins to meet the demand that would ensue.
To avoid being hung for counterfeiting and burned at the stake, there was a multitude of halfpenny tokens. Many were of a political nature as this one complaining about the cost of bread. The government yielded to the private halfpenny tokens which became the majority of the small change. The overall public demand for legal halfpennies soon forced the government to change its mind, and in 1798 a contract was issued to Boulton for him to produce halfpennies and farthings dated 1799.
Interestingly, it was also at this time when inflation sent the price of copper rising, and consequently, the weight of the coins was reduced slightly, which resulted in them not being as popular as expected. In 1806 a further 427.5 tons of copper was struck into halfpennies by Boulton, but the price of copper had risen again and the weight was even less than the 1799 issue. This time, however, there was no unfavorable reaction from the public, so perhaps the national obsession with “intrinsic value” had run its course.
This was a very curious period where private money dominated the money supply for halfpennies. There are other periods where this has emerged in history primarily due to the shortage of real official money. One of the earliest such periods was during the reign of the Roman Emperor Tiberius (14-37AD).
Tiberius was legendary to be a frugal emperor. His deliberate contraction in creating new money led to the Financial Panic of 33AD. As far as Quantitative Easing, that too was nothing new. Tiberius offered loans INTEREST-FREE, but they had a limitation of three years. This was to prevent people from being forced to sell their estates further depressing land values.
There was a major earthquake in Asia, modern Turkey, and this was so devastating, he issued coins stating they were for the relief of Asia. He also waived all taxes in the region for 5 years – something our modern-day politicians would never dream of.
The lesson from history reveals that at times there emerges the acceptance of private money. During the 1870s, we also see private tokens circulating as money in the United States. Collectors call them the Hard Times Tokens. The very same thing took place during the American Civil War.
During the Great Depression, the shortage of money led to more than 200 cities issuing their own paper currency. As long as everyone in town accepted it, these Depressions Scrips enable people to work and to be paid locally when there was simply not enough federal money to go around.
During the Hyperinflation in Germany of the 1920s, there again we see private currency being printed known as NOTGELD. Therefore, in the end, when the confidence in government declines, society is compelled to return to a barter-based society and that is when we begin to see private forms of money take hold.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America