Posted originally on Sep 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: The comment you posted was correct. Jim Cramer always said bad news is good news. He and everyone else continue to advocate for lower interest rates, and you have shown that when rates decline, so does the economy and stock markets. It looks like Trump is not much better with his constant attack on the Fed.
Joe
ANSWER: I am a trader – not a promoter, academic, or a TV host. When you actually have skin in the game, you cannot trade based on stupid theories. The fact that these people can say that BS time and time again that lower rates are suitable for the economy, makes the word STUPID and a compliment to their mental capability, for they have not yet invented a word to describe their cognitive ability, which seems to be so myopic that they are at the level of an ameba.
I agree, Trump’s attack on the Fed is absolutely dead wrong. The Fed has lowered rates during the Great Depression and every single recession right up to the 2007-2009 recession with ZERO impact whatsoever. No matter how loud I scream, they will NEVER change this propaganda, and they will not only doom the country, but also cause a lot of economic harm to people who act on this propaganda.
The ECB went NEGATIVE on interest rates in 2014 and maintained that until 2022, with ZERO impact on reversing the economic downtrend. They will NEVER learn, and this is what 2032 is all about. Those in power neither understand how the economy functions nor do they care about trying even to figure it out.
No matter what you show a Democrat, it just makes them “feel all warm and fussy” inside to hurt people who have more than they do. They refuse to look at history and show just once where their theories have EVER worked a single time. We have the same entrenched stupidity on the right with this nonsense that lowering rates is good for the economy. We are doomed because of this foolishness on both sides and the REFUSAL even to look to see if this propaganda is right or wrong.
The stock market has NEVER peaked at the same level twice in history. The peak in Call Money was 1899, and the reason was a financial crisis in Britain that forced capital to be recalled from the emerging markets, which was, back then, the USA. The capital outflows led to shortages in cash, causing rates to rise. In 1929, the biggest rally occurred, with rates at their lowest, as capital from around the world concentrated in the USA following World War I.
The goldbugs have told everyone to sell stocks and that only gold will rise. Like the Marxists, it just makes them feel warm and fuzzy inside to hate stocks and preach only gold, but will NEVER investigate what they are saying. This is what makes it so hopeless.
Even during the Great Depression, the most famous analyst was Irving Fisher. He predicted that the market had reached a new plateau and implied it would never crash. He was dead wrong, and his reputation was severely impacted. Irving Fisher’s contemporary public reputation was utterly destroyed by the 1929 crash, primarily because of a famously ill-timed statement.
Galbraith’s socialist philosophy clouded his view of the Great Depression, blaming speculation and the private sector while ignoring the government defaults from Europe and Asia that contributed to the collapse of 9,000 banks. The primary issue in analysis is that people often start with a theory and attempt to prove it, rather than genuinely learning from the data.
Every single BS theory these people espouse is just utter nonsense. They have NEVER looked at markets and are incapable of basic research. They open their mouths and spit out words merely because everyone else does, and they are scared to death of peer review by yet other idiots. Yes, I have fought against the bankers, the Deep State, and various intelligence organizations, and all try to silence me and put out BS, desperate to try to prevent people from simply understanding reality.
Even the complete nonsense that currencies are FIAT and only gold will survive is another absolute piece of raw BS. Again, they just take the Austrian School nonsense and never look at the monetary system at that point in history, when in fact the exchange rates between currencies were purely based on the metal content. There was no real superpower or centralized dominant economy when they were trying to come up with explanations of a process they did not fully understand. The first non-metal monetary system was based on a central ledger system of entries in ancient Egypt. Money was essentially equivalent to wheat that they deposited in a bank, and they were the first to implement a GIRO banking system in the world. You could transfer money from your account to another (GIRO), which did not appear until the Italian bankers of the Middle Ages. The Egyptians did not use coins until they were conquered by Alexander the Great in 332BC. So for thousands of years, it was purely book entries in a bank.
In order for Egypt to engage in international trade, it issued imitations of Athenian Owls. This proved that the value of an Athenian Owl was worth more than the metal content. They could have issued their own coinage, but did not. They imitated the Athenian Owl because that was the recognized currency in international commerce. There was a premium to the metal content or “fiat”; it was backed by Athens itself, not the metal content. Instead, its value comes from the trust people place in the government that issues it and the fact that it is the only legally accepted form of money for paying debts and taxes. The word “fiat” comes from Latin and means “let it be done” or “by decree.” Essentially, the currency has value because the government says it does, or because the people trust that government over others.
The Celts routinely imitated the coinage of Macedonia, starting with the gold of Philip II and then the silver of his son Alexander the Great. Again, this demonstrated that there was a premium to the coinage over and above that of the metal content. This is the very definition of a fiat currency, whose value is based on the fact that the government issues it.
India was the source of the spice trade. They dealt extensively with Rome and Roman coins that circulated in India. They too imitated Roman coinage, and again, the value of the currency was NOT the metal content, but who do you trust? Proof of that statement is here, an Indian imitation gold aureus which weighs nearly 60% more than a genuine gold aureus of Rome.
India was still imitating the coinage of the Venetian Empire during the 18th century. Issuing gold in the form of the most recognized currency in world trade confirms that the value of the currency was more than the metal content.
The Austrian Maria Theresia Thalers are perhaps the most imitated coin, for they were used in international trade by far. She died in 1780, so they continued to strike coins dated 1780, the year of her death. Again, the metal content is generally correct, showing that the coins were acceptable internationally.
Fortunately, you will NEVER convince a fool that he is foolish. There will be plenty of these people who will refuse to listen. They MUST lose their shirts, pants, the house, car, the wife, and the kids before they will ever understand. We learn ONLY from our mistakes – not our victories. So there will be a herd for us to trade against.
Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Peace talks are a moot point between Russia and Ukraine. Security guarantees for Ukraine have been at the forefront of Ukraine’s discussions but they are actually a premise to determine how other nations will officially enter the war. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni proposed an ambitious security guarantee that would require allies to decide within 24 hours whether to deploy troops to Ukraine if Russia attacks.
“Allies” could use any excuse to send their men and women to the battlefield under this premise. Zelensky has been urging for Article 5 protection—an attack on one is an attack on all—despite Ukraine not being a member of NATO. Entering the conflict under Article 5 is voluntary, but the situation can only remain voluntary for so long when other members become further embedded in the conflict. Ten European nations have already offered to send troops to Ukraine. Zelensky insists that long-term restrictions on its military should be eliminated.
Ukraine would ideally like to join NATO, but NATO has never been willing to accept Ukraine as a member of its alliance. Instead, paying NATO members will offer Ukraine the very same protections they enjoy as the globalist powers abandon domestic sovereignty for a needless war. Europe knows it is crumbling under its own foot due the surmounting sovereign debt crisis, and rather than accept fault, the plan is to conquer Russia to bypass defaults. The computer indicates that this plan will fail.
I am preparing a report on the sovereign debt crisis for the 2025 World Economic Conference that will discuss this plan in further depth.
The European Union cannot admit its socialist experiment has failed, so it needs a distraction. Historically, when governments are bankrupt, they turn to war, and this is not a new strategy but human nature coming into play. The neocons in Washington are eager to play along and drag the US into Europe’s proxy war. The cost of living is skyrocketing among all developed nations, and rather than acknowledging failed policies or changing course, the West has decided to create a common enemy–Russia. Russia is the reason that the people are voting against their failed policies, according to the West and mainstream media. Russia is the reason that energy prices are rising, as they certainly cannot blame climate policies that have murdered the energy sector. Taxes are rising because of Russia. The forces that be would like the people to redirect their anger to the common enemy rather than revolting as they see the rising civil unrest and growing private debt burden.
Meloni said “there are clearly no easy solutions when it comes to stopping a war and building peace,” but she now realizes that peace is not an option. She showed potential at the beginning of her term, but has fallen under the thumb of Brussels. All of Europe, aside from Hungary’s Orban, has bowed to Brussels. The war will not be enough for the continent to hold on to its decaying union.
Posted originally on Aug 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Thank you for the private blog on the sovereign debt crisis. With both the UK and France in trouble and the possibility of the IMF bailing out these two major countries, everything you have been warning about is coming to a head. I was impressed. There was over $20 trillion in the room at the last WEC. This year’s WEC will be more than just an ‘I told you so’ event. Can’t wait. You certainly have a lot to cover.
WL
REPLY: Well, between War, Sovereign Debt Crisis, shift in capital flows, risk of cancelling paper currencies, and even the rise in volcanic activity on target with Socrates’ forecast, we are looking at a profound shift with wildcards coming in from many directions. This year is our 40th anniversary since the first World Economic Conference was held in Princeton in 1985. Thank God for Socrates. It monitors everything and performs the work of over 1,000 analysts to provide us with a clear picture of what lies ahead.
I still had some hair back then and was probably 20 pounds lighter. We have the videos of that one, and there I was forecasting, look at the volatility we will experience in the decades ahead. That was undoubtedly an eye-opener at the time.
We did every country, and the charts were all hand-drawn for that conference back in 1985.
Posted originally on Aug 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Viktor Orbán has been a thorn in the paw of the European dictatorship masquerading as a democracy when the people have no right to vote for any leader, and the Parliament, which they do vote for, has no complete democratic control over other EU institutions, especially the European Commission. It can hold hearings, ask questions, and set up committees of inquiry. Most dramatically, it has the power to pass a motion of censure and force the entire European Commission to resign. It cannot pass laws alone. It can reject proposed legislation entirely, killing the bill. It has done this on numerous occasions, forcing the Commission to go back to the drawing board. However, it has the power to reject the entire annual EU budget. It has no power to alter laws or the budget. It is always an all-or-nothing role.
The European Union has not stripped Hungary of its voting rights over issues related to migrants or Ukraine, but is dying to do so and is now behind closed doors telling Zelensky to create a confrontation with Orban to force Hungary to exit the EU and enter war with Ukraine. On Ukraine’s Independence Day, Zelensky gave Hungary an ultimatum:“You must make a choice.” Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó fired back with sharp words:
“We firmly reject the Ukrainian President’s intimidation. In recent days Ukraine has carried out serious attacks against our energy supply. An attack on energy security is an attack on sovereignty.”
Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha then mocked Hungary, stating:
“Hungary’s energy security is in your own hands. Diversify and become independent from Russia, like the rest of Europe.”
Zelensky is deliberately attacking the national security of Hungary, I believe, at orders from London, the EU, and NATO, who want Hungary out of the EU. The EU has debated stripping Hungary’s voting rights, but no such action has been finalized due to the complex and politically sensitive nature of the Article 7 process. Hungary’s positions on migration and Ukraine remain significant points of tension. For now, Hungary retains its full voting rights. The EU is desperate to get it to leave to the point of instructing Zelensky to cut off Hungary’s energy supply from Russia to cripple the economy, and they hope that will overthrow Orbán.
This dangerous new phase of the war, targeting highly sensitive infrastructure, comes amid defiant speeches in Kiev. There will NEVER be any peace until Zelensky is dragged out of Ukraine in chains. He takes his order against his own people, who want peace.
There have been ongoing discussions and proposals to deal with Hungary under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, which allows for the suspension of a member state’s voting rights in cases of severe and persistent breaches of EU values, such as the rule of law, democracy, and human rights. These discussions have been fueled by Hungary’s actions under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, particularly its vetoes or obstructions of EU decisions on Ukraine aid, sanctions against Russia, and migration policies.
Hungary has repeatedly blocked or delayed EU funding for Ukraine, such as the €50 billion Ukraine Facility package, and opposed Ukraine’s EU accession talks, often citing issues like minority rights or corruption in Ukraine. For instance, Orbán left the room during a key vote in December 2023 to allow EU leaders to reach a consensus on starting accession talks with Ukraine, avoiding a direct veto but still signaling resistance.
Hungary’s vetoes on Ukraine aid and its perceived alignment with Moscow have led to growing frustration. The EU has considered workarounds, like alternative plans to bypass Hungary’s veto on Ukraine’s accession, and some MEPs have pushed for legal action against the European Commission for unfreezing €10 billion in funds for Hungary, seen by critics as a concession to Orbán’s tactics. This is why, covertly, Ukraine has been given the green light to undermine Hungary in hopes of forcing regime change.
Article 7 Proceedings:
The European Parliament triggered Article 7 procedures against Hungary in 2018 due to hyped-up allegations of judicial independence, media freedom, and civil society restrictions. Multiple hearings have been held to discuss potential sanctions, including suspending Hungary’s voting rights. However, no final decision has been made, as Article 7 requires unanimous consent from all other member states, which has been challenging to achieve.
Hungary’s strict anti-migration stance, including the “Stop Soros” law criminalizing assistance to illegal migrants and its 2016 referendum rejecting EU migration quotas, has been a point of contention. Some EU members see these policies as violating EU principles on human rights and solidarity.
The EU has instructed Romania to take in 100,000 migrants from Africa and the Middle East. They really do believe that they can draft all of these migrants to wage war against Russia. That is the backdrop to this crisis, they will NEVER tell the media about because it makes them the aggressor for war.
Our model on the EU, taken from the 1957 Treay of Rome, shows a major crash by 2030. This is where we should expect that the odds of the EU remaining intact post-2030 come into serious question. The EU has been drunk with power and has done precisely the opposite of its promises, from Climate Change to the migrant crisis, all culminating in war.
The shift in trend that the computer was forecasting lined up with the ECM from the start of the Euro, which began on October 20th, 2024 (2024.802). Maia Sandu, the Prime Minister of Moldavia, had the first round of election on October 20th, 2024.
This is also when Kaja Kallas was selected to be the Vice-President of the European Commission as well as High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. She is about as unbiased as Zelensky, and the two of them belong in the same cell. It was the first time I ever saw him put on a shirt and tie to impress her. I guess he didn’t need to wear his army getup to show he is at war while sending off $50 million per month to a secret account in the UAE.
As I have warned, even Washington, the EU has ZERO intention of allowing any peace deal whatsoever. There was war, and it is either war to destroy Russia and seize its $75 trillion of natural resources to keep the EU alive, or else, it is going to collapse by 2030, and they know that. They will NOT reform the EU even economically. They are married to the goals of Karl Marx – equality and suppressing individualism, just as the USSR did. The right to freedom of speech does not exist in Europe, unlike in the USSR. They are as paranoid as Stalin was who lived in fear of a revolution to overthrow him.
We see October as a turning point for Hungary. Perhaps all the back-stabbing from the EU will come to a head. With Zelensky’s ultimatum, choose sides or else it will come from Kallas and the rest of the Neocons.
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