Venezuelan Hyperinflation


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The Venezuelean hyperinflation is the direct result of what happens when the general population loses all confidence in the government. The current hyperinflation is reminiscent of Germany’s hyperinflation following World War I, which was also the result of a Communist Revolution and the overthrow of the government giving birth to the Weimar Republic.  Venezuela’s currency has become virtually worthless as was the case in Japan when the people simply refused to accept any coins issued by the Japanese government. In that instance, each new emperor devalued the outstanding money supply to 10% of his new issues. This led to Japanese accepting Chinese coins, but not Japanese.

In just two months, the bolivar plummeted 50% in value after dropping beneath the psychological 2000 level for the first time. Where the Japanese relied upon Chinese coins, in Venezuela they are using U.S. dollars.  The same is starting to emerge in India after the government demonetized the large denomination notes.

Oil accounts for nearly 95% of Venezuela’s exports and composes 25% of the country’s overall economy. Many economists are blaming Venezuela’s socialist government for mismanaging budgets and over relying on oil-related industries. Acting as a typical politician, President Maduro will not take responsibility for the state of his country and is choosing to place the blame on an “economic war” being waged by overseas businesses predominantly in the U.S.

Venezuela’s troubles began in 2014 when the price of oil took a nosedive. Instead of moving to separate the country from its dependence on oil, the Venezuelan government lost the confidence of the people and was compelled to issue more money to pay its bills lacking revenue flow.

As the prices of goods continue to soar, shopkeepers in Venezuela have taken to weighing bolivars and the black market for alternative currencies – namely U.S. dollars — is becoming prevalent.

The key to hyperinflation is NOT the issue of money, but the collapse in public confidence. The drop in confidence then causes the government to print more to meet its expenses. The assumption it is the increase in money supply assumes people blindly just look at the quantity of money. It is the fact people ANTICIPATE the collapse and act accordingly, which then causes the government to increase the money supply.

Gallup Poll: Trust Level of Mainstream Media Falls to 32%


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woodward-bersteing-watergateGallup first began asking if Americans trusted the mainstream media in 1972. America’s trust and confidence in mainstream media stood at its highest level back in 1976 at 72%. Of course, that was due to the investigative journalism regarding Vietnam, and naturally Woodward and Berstein, with the Watergate scandal. Following that period, the media began to attack the right with Reagan. By the late 1990s, the Americans’ trust in the media fell steadily into the low to mid 50% level.

Following 2005, the trust in mainstream media dropped into the mid 40% range. It has consistently been below a majority level ever since the 2007 economic decline. However, after the 2016 election and the extreme bias for Hillary, where virtually 99% of mainstream media deliberately tried to manipulate the people to vote for Hillary, the trust factor has collapsed to 32%. When they polled just conservative Republicans, it was 14%. So the 32% level is the average American.

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news-readerOur models on the confidence in American mainstream media using the Gallup Poll data projects a sharp decline into 2019/2020, which is the bottom of the current 8.6-year Economic Confidence Model. This will be 43 years from high. Note that 2007 was 31 years from that peak. It was 2007 and the collapse in the economy that has marked the collapse in public confidence in government and the media.

We should expect that the media will viciously attack Donald Trump in a futile effort to cling to some level of importance and to desperately try to demonstrate that they were not wrong with 99% of the media endorsing Hillary. But the media willingly conspired to make Hillary president. They will now try to vindicate themselves by trashing Trump at every possible chance. They will now fuel the civil divide and help lay the foundation for the collapse of the United States itself by turning left against right. Even the New York Post wrote that what they were witnessing was the end of journalism. They will do everything to try to change Congress in 2018. It appears that will be their last stand. The younger generation does not buy newspapers and magazines. Their end is near.

Trump summoned the mainstream TV media to Trump Tower for a meeting. Whether he can persuade them to stop the supporting of civil unrest remains to be seen. Lester Holt, Charlie Rose, George Stephanopoulos and Wolf Blitzer all headed to this private meeting. All have demonstrated outrageous bias and have disgraced the very purpose of a free press as they all tried to influence the people rather than report the news. Even Saturday Night Live made fun of how biased mainstream media has been.

Horseman Capital Asks “Is China Running Out Of Money”


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At the start of 2016, many financial pundits mocked Kyle Bass and a handful of other China skeptics for predicting that China’s economic difficulties, and accelerating capital outflows, would translate into a continued devaluation for the Yuan. Less than a year later, with the Yuan plunging to all time lows, just shy of USDCNH 7.00, they were right.

And, as Horseman Capital’s Russell Clark writes in his latest Market Views note, in which he asks if “China is running out of money”, adding that “if Chinese foreign reserves continue to fall and the PBOC wants to maintain control of the exchange rate, they will need to face some difficult choices,” the one most difficult choice facing Beijing may be the one which assures far more weakness for the Yuan in the near future: a devaluation.

Here are Clarke’s thoughts.

IS CHINA RUNNING OUT OF MONEY?

Since the global financial crisis, China has had a very strong currency, even with the recent devaluation of the Chinese Yuan.

China has a managed exchange rate. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has had to step in to the exchange market to buy any USD coming into China. To buy the USD coming into China, the PBOC has had to create CNY for this purpose. Typically, to soak up these new CNY, the PBOC has issued CNY bonds, as well as having very high reserve requirements on the banks to control the supply of CNY.

The PBOC is like any other bank, and it needs to match assets with liabilities. On the asset side, by far its biggest assets are foreign reserves. On the liability side are domestic deposits. For many years, foreign reserves were much larger than deposits, but now the gap is shrinking rapidly as foreign currency assets fall.

If Chinese foreign reserves continue to fall and the PBOC wants to maintain control of the exchange rate, they will need to face some difficult choices. First of all, it could raise interest rates to try and make the Yuan more attractive and reduce outflows. This however would be negative for growth, a priority of the Chinese Communist Party. The other option is to reduce the holdings of deposits at the PBOC. The large holdings of deposits at PBOC is driven by the very high reserve requirements of the Chinese banking system, and previous cuts in the reserve requirements have reduced deposits at least temporarily.

This leaves the PBOC with a dilemma. Raising rates will restrict growth but defend the currency, while cutting rates or reserve rates for banks will encourage more currency weakness. One way to think about how high interest rates need to rise to stop a currency from falling is to look at how weak a currency has been over the last twelve months. You then compare this to the difference in 10 year bond rates, and the movement in the exchange rate over the last 12 months to get an idea of the interest rates increase needed to attract US dollars. The idea is that if a currency has been weak, but interest rates are relatively high, then you are being adequately compensated. Conversely, if the currency has been weak, and the interest rates are relatively low, then rates will need to rise. Currently, it suggests Chinese 10 year rates need to be 6.5% higher, to halt currency weakness.

Given the large increase in rates needed to slow Chinese Yuan devaluation, devaluation must start to look like the more likely move. South Korea faced a very similar situation in 1997. In the mid-90s, Korean foreign reserves began to fall, like they are in China today. We have added Japanese foreign reserves to show that the fall in reserves was a Korean specific issue.

Like the Chinese Yuan, the Korean Won was a managed exchange rate that began to depreciate slowly then quickly.

Below we produce the same graphs, but replace Korea with China.

Given the huge increase in debt in China in recent years, such a rate increase seems very unlikely to me. Investors should be prepared for bigger falls in the Chinese Yuan.

The Western War On Truth


The truth is always the first casualty in any conflict!

The Trump Tower Elevator Cam Live Stream – 8:00am to 6:00pm…


Yes, it’s the human fish tank. Go ahead, try NOT to watch it. But be careful. You’ll never know what you missed, unless you watch… But then you’ll know what you wouldn’…

Source: The Trump Tower Elevator Cam Live Stream – 8:00am to 6:00pm…

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#pizzagate Online Sleuths Turning up More Evidence of Child Sex Ring Involving Hillary’s Campaign Manager John Podesta


WE HAVE TO PROTECT THEM FROM THESE MONSTERS. Notice the date on Andrew Breitbart’s Tweet. It’s 2011. He knew. He knew of John Podesta’s involvement in a D.C. child sex ring that p…

Source: #pizzagate Online Sleuths Turning up More Evidence of Child Sex Ring Involving Hillary’s Campaign Manager John Podesta

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Canadian Economist: “We are so screwed” … “This is like Godzilla Trump -vs- Bambi Trudeau”…


…”and we will win, and you will win, and we will keep on winning, and eventually you will say we can’t take all of this winning, …please Mr. Trump  …and I will say, NO, we will win, and we will kee…

Source: Canadian Economist: “We are so screwed” … “This is like Godzilla Trump -vs- Bambi Trudeau”…

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Obama was in on Hillary’s Emails Huma Abedin Tells FBI


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What is really disturbing is just how far politics has fallen. The FBI released Huma Abedin 302, or the notes on her interview with the FBI. It is becoming painfully clear why Obama would never indict Hillary and may provide her a pardon to protect himself. Abedin told FBI agents she “had to tell the White House” every time Hillary Clinton changed her email address to make sure Obama’s device would accept it. Therefore, Obama outright lied saying the first time he heard of Hillary’s private emails was when the New York Times broke the story.

Abedin says she had to notify Obama of Hillary’s private emails so he knew what she was doing. The trail of evidence with Norway and Obama being given the Noble Peace Prize for nothing  means that Obama was clearly a co-conspirator with Hillary. No wonder the FBI and Justice Department have stood down. They had to otherwise Obama could be criminally charged as well.

Politics has definitely found a new low.

Google’s Biased Search Engine Exposed – Can They Be Trusted Anymore?


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Hillary Clinton’s ties to Google, CNN, PBS, and The New York Times illustrate the conspiracy among these organization who tried to help Hillary be crowned leader of the free world. New York Times Publisher Arthur Sulzberger Jr. has admitted that his paper was unconstitutionally biased and disgraced the very principle of the First Amendment. Sulzberger admits the paper was biased by saying they underestimated Donald Trump’s support among American voters. He then claimed they would “rededicate ourselves” to the newspaper’s standards of “honestly” reporting news. At least he admitted they were rigging the game.

A new study has been released on Google and the rumors that they skewed their search engine to support Hillary. They reported: “Among our key findings were that top search results were almost 40% more likely to contain pages with a “Left” or “Far Left” slant than they were pages from the right. Moreover, 16% of political keywords contained no right-leaning pages at all within the first page of results.”

 

schmidt_ericOf course, these stories of Google manipulating search returns to support Hillary have been all over the internet. Google’s Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt was forced to come out and state publicly that Google will not endorse Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump for president given all the allegations. Schmidt stated, “We have not taken a position on the American election and nor do I expect us to.” 

Eric Schmidt worked with a technology focus to help the Clinton campaign. He is also an adviser to the Pentagon. He is linked to government and appears to have manipulated the Google search engine to benefit Hillary. The video itself is a very interesting example comparing Goggle, Yahoo, and Bing. There was obviously something serious wrong with the Google search engine when they typed in Hillary.

Google has called its integrity into question and one must ask what is going on here. If I were Trump, I would immediately propose legislation to make this a crime. If anyone in such a position deliberately attempts to manipulate the people, it should be life in prison, or death — their choice. Those who work for Google must be shocked to have the integrity of who they work for questioned in such a manner. Perhaps we need a another Snowden to emerge from Google to show how dangerous this can be.

Stunning new data indicates El Nino drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions 


Nature rules man!