Posted Originally on the conservative tree house on September 13, 2022 | Sundance
We are in an abusive relationship with our own government. If you want a real-time example of how governmental bureaucracy fits into this statement, look no further than the footnote at the bottom of this article ¹cited from the BLS report today.
The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) has released the August inflation data today [DATA HERE] with a top line at 8.3 percent year over year. Unfortunately, things are unfolding exactly as we previously shared. [Modified Table 1 at left]
Despite the temporary drop in gasoline prices (-12%), the costs of food (+13.5%), electricity (+15.8%) and housing (+6.7%) are crushing U.S. consumers. The stock market is responding accordingly. We can only imagine the inflation data if the heavily weighted gasoline factor was not pushing overall toplines down. Estimation of inflation would be well over double digits.
Keep in mind, as you read this review the price of the current harvest (prior field costs) is only right now coming into the food supply chain.
Food inflation is running at its highest rate since 1979 (+11.4%) and it will go higher as the third wave in this sector hits.
To give you an example, margarine increased in price 7% in August alone, that’s an annualized rate of 94% [Table 2 details]. Flour is also on pace for another 22.8% increase right as the holiday baking season begins.
We cannot eat gold, silver or durable goods. Electricity, home heating (natural gas), food and housing costs are priorities right now. Main Street USA is being crushed by Joe Biden overall economic and energy policies. It’s bad now, and going to get worse – much worse, as the third wave of food inflation has only just begun.
¹Before sharing a MSM perspective I want to draw your attention to the BLS notation for 2023. This innocuous footnote tells us just how manipulative the governmental bureaucracies are:
In order to give the statistical appearance of things being better than they are, the BLS is going to reset their weighting for the CPI to only compare against 2021. This is being done with purpose to give the illusion next year that things are not as bad. 2021 was when Joe Biden’s inflation policies first surfaced. By comparing consumer prices to the timing when those prices first increased, the scale of future price increases will be statistically diminished. We are in an abusive relationship with our government.
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(CNBC) – Inflation rose more than expected in August as rising shelter and food costs offset a drop in gas prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The consumer price index, which tracks a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, CPI rose 0.6% from July and 6.3% from the same month in 2021.
Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. The respective year-over-year forecasts were for 8% and 6% gains.
Energy prices fell 5% for the month, led by a 10.6% slide in the gasoline index. However, those declines were offset by increases elsewhere.
The food index increased 0.8% in August and shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, jumped 0.7% and are up 6.2% from a year ago. (read more)
For readers who do advanced preparation to offset prices. THINK BEEF right now, you will thank me four months from now. If you see a deal now, buy it and freeze it now. Anticipate retail ground beef costs be somewhere around $10 to $15/lb by spring to mid 2023 perhaps even higher. Also remember, processed foods will increase in price at twice the rate of the fresh food sector. Both fresh and processed food prices will rise, but the increased costs associated with the food processing will double the price.
As in late times, as rulers come and go, the currency changes to reflect the change of power. In ancient Rome, for example, they would announce the coming of a new emperor on the coinage. The Romans used the reverse of their coinage as newspapers announcing victory, great building projects as the opening of the Colosseum, or political events such as the destruction of tax records by Emperor Hadrian recording one of the earliest tax amnesty events. Pictured here is the famous “Eid Mar” denarius of Brutus (85-42 BC), announcing he killed Caesar on the Ides of March in 44 BC.
Queen Elizabeth’s death will also cause numerous changes in currency. “Current banknotes featuring the image of Her Majesty The Queen will continue to be legal tender,” the Bank of England said shortly after her passing. The Royal Mint is continuing to “strike coins as usual” and has not announced when they plan to replace her image with the newly appointed Kings Charles III. The currency was updated five times during her rule to reflect the natural aging process. There are currently 4.7 billion UK banknotes in circulation worth an estimated 82 billion pounds ($95 billion). These bills will circulate for years to come as it takes an extensive amount of time to swap out currency.
The United Kingdom is not the only one who now must change its currency. Queen Elizabeth II broke the Guinness Book of World Records for being the longest reigning monarch after sitting on the throne for over 70 years. She also made history by appearing on more currencies than any other living monarch. At least 33 countries feature currency with the late queen’s image. Some countries removed the queen’s image decades ago after gaining independence. Jamaica replaced her image in 1966 with Marcus Garvey, while Bermuda changed its banknotes to feature native animals. Trinidad and Tobago also replaced her image with a coat of arms.
Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Belize, and many others will need to update some of their currency. While the UK is refraining from making a statement until after the 10-day mourning period, other nations have explained their plans. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, for example, said, “All coin stock for a denomination showing the Queen will be issued before new stock goes out with her successor’s image. This is a few years away.” The central bank said that it would be “wasteful” to shorten the lifespan of the existing currency in circulation, but they do plan to transition to currency featuring the new king in “several years.” The bank is also concerned that a rapid transition could affect its liquidity due to supply chain disruptions or sudden demand.
All existing currency with the queen’s image is valid and legal tender. It takes years for the currency to change, as it is an expensive and gradual process.
India is the largest rice exporter in the world. The nation saw the highest volume of rice exported last year at 18.75 million metric tons. In contrast, the second-largest exporter, Vietnam, sold about 6.5 million metric tons of rice that same year. Rice is the main staple in diets throughout the world. In the midst of food shortages, the Indian government decided to impose a 20% export duty on rice.
Importers are not too keen on the new export levy, and the plan has backfired. One million tons of grain now stand idle at Indian ports as buyers are refusing to pay the additional 20%. BV Krishna Rao, President of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA), has stated that India has stopped loading all vessels with rice shipments. Another problem is that many buyers already paid for their orders but are now expected to pay an additional 20%. The margin for rice is small, and most buyers are not willing to cut into profits.
Perhaps the Indian government would like the world to see it has a stronghold over the world’s rice supply. India currently sells to over 150 countries and now has leverage, considering the ongoing food shortages.
QUESTION: I’m a subscriber and I read you every day. Your weekend article 9/10/22 that a gold standard will not work as gold fluctuates just as Fiat currencies do. Then what in your opinion is the proper currency model, or can we just simply keep printing dollars endlessly because for now, we’re the least dirty of all the dirty shirts? If you’ve done an article or book on this please guide me to it. Thanks and keep up the great work with such accurate insights.
CG
ANSWER: Don’t mix the problem of the quantity of money with what is actually money. They are two separate issues. The theory that inflation is tied to the quantity of money truly extends back to when metal was the money supply. The sudden discovery of America led to a huge wave of inflation in Europe. The FISCAL MISMANAGEMENT of Spain led to its total collapse. They were borrowing against the next shipload of gold coming in from the New World. They would not wait even to get it in, and they were so excited to spend it before it arrived.
Spain became the richest nation in Europe thanks to the wanderings of Columbus. Nonetheless, the amazing Decline and Fall of Spain is perhaps the greatest lesson if someone wishes to write “How NOT to Manage Government For Dummies.” The Spanish became both the richest nation and the greatest debtor, not that dissimilar from the United States, and succeeded in ending up as the poorest.
Spain became a serial defaulter beginning in 1557, followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647 ending in a 3rd world status without hyperinflation. Their economic model was one of conquest and plunder rather than developing domestic industry and a viable economy. The lesson to be learned from Spain is precisely what Adam Smith wrote in his 1776, “Wealth of Nations.”
The first such default that is definitively recorded took place at least in the 4th century BC when ten out of thirteen Greek municipalities in the Attic Maritime Association defaulted on loans from the Delos Temple of Apollo.
The endless increase in the supply of dollars is not the problem. That is like blaming the gun for killing someone rather than the person with the gun. The issue has ALWAYS been the fiscal mismanagement of those in power.
This is an entirely SEPARATE QUESTION from what is money!
Our problem is NOT that money is paper. The problem is those in charge of the government. In China, cowrie shells were once money. In Rome, the earliest form of money was cattle. When bronze began to replace cattle, you see this Roman Aes Signatum with the image of a cow that was the symbol of money. The Egyptians had paper money, but they were receipts for grain storage which would change hands. There was no fiscal mismanagement.
To trade with the outside world, the Egyptians did not have their own coinage. They produced silver imitations of the Athenian Owl — Tetradrachms.
There have been many two-tier monetary systems throughout history. Even South Africa had the Financial Rand for international use and the Rand, which was restricted to domestic. Russia, after 1991, had some shares that traded as ADRs on foreign markets, which were 10 to 20x that of the shares traded on the Russian exchange, which were restricted to Russian investment. That is what the foreigners were abusing setting up shop in Moscow and then buying local shared and lobbying companies like Gazprom to adopt Western accounting standards to make a 30-fold profit while claiming they were some white knight concerned about corruption — all total propaganda.
Even going back further to the Minoans who created the Bronze Age, the ingots used in trade were made in the form of sheepskin, which had been money in the ancient Greek world.
Gold was reserved for the pharaohs, so naturally, others wanted it. The Bible refers to the weighing of the silver in Genesis 23:16: “Abraham listened to Ephron; and Abraham weighed out for Ephron the silver which he had named in the hearing of the sons of Heth, four hundred shekels of silver, commercial standard.” Even a “Deutsche Mark” referred to a “mark of silver,” which was a weight. The same in Britain. The British “Pound” was one pound of silver .925.
Our entire weight system remains that which was established in ancient Rome, with an ounce being 28.34 grams and a troy ounce being 31.0 grams. The Romans started with even a coin that was called the “uncia” during the Republic period.
Therefore, the problem with a “gold standard” is the goldbugs keep suggesting that gold would be “fixed” in value. They will only blow up in everyone’s face. There have been many crises.
Riots against bankers have been very common, especially when international lending has led to economic chaos. When Edward II (1307-1327) of England was captured, riots broke out in London. The mobs attacked the Italian bankers who had extracted huge interest payments from England. The famous Italian bankers at the time were the Bardi family. The English mob attacked their London office in 1326, illustrating the age of nationalism and protectionism that was festering during the 14th century. As much as things appear to change, they remain very much the same at the root core
Those who think the gold standard brings stability must also believe in the Tooth Fairy. There was a huge CONTAGION that became widespread because of debasements during the 14th century. The silver to gold ratio was disrupted everywhere in Europe thanks to French debasements. The ratio stood at 13.1 in Florence compared to 12:1 in France during 1316 and was trying, like the Silver Democrats of the 19th US Century, to overvalue the price of silver. By driving the price of silver even higher relative to gold, they forced the ratio in France down to 5:1 in 1343, setting off riots in Florence. Silver was being drained from the local economy flowing to France, where it was over-valued, and this created a sharp recession in Florence with the shortage of money (silver) for domestic use.
Why? For you see, wages and local commerce were conducted in silver. Gold was used only for international trade. Driving the price of silver higher raised the cost of production, which simultaneously reduced the value of trade and even outstanding loans made to individuals and sovereigns alike. This caused a drop in production and rising unemployment. Hence, the first riot came in 1343, whereby the French debasement had contributed to the impatience of the population. Switzerland did the same thing pegging the franc to the euro because the franc was rising, and manufacturers threatened to leave. Hence, Switzerland has imported massive inflation, raising the cost of living and doing business there to TWICE that of the United States.
The Political-Economic Revolt of 1343 in Florence may have had its roots in a corrupt government, as we are also seeing in Europe and Ukraine, but it was set in motion by the economic events driven by over-valuing silver. There was an uprising of workers that erupted on September 24, 1343. The people stormed the palaces of the rich merchant-banking families located in the Oltrarno quarter of the city that was on the left bank of the Arno River. This was where the palaces of the Bardi, Frescobaldi, Rossie, Nerli, Mannelli, and many others were located. The rioters barricaded the bridges, and on the 25, they captured the palaces of the Rossi and Frescobaldi. They also stormed the Bardi palace forcing the members of that family to abandon their fortress and flee for their lives. The mob then sacked the Bardi Palace and set it on fire. Contemporary accounts tell us that the Bardi lost that day 60,000 florins in the destruction that took place in Florence – truly a vast amount of money that would be in the tens of millions of dollars today.
The Florence monetary system was a two-tier system whereby gold was used ONLY for settling international trade, and silver was used for domestic commerce. Those who simply think because coins were precious metals and thus were not “fiat,” yielding some land of Utopia where the value of money was constant while assets rose and fell, cannot grasp the simple concept that assets rise and fall ONLY in terms of purchasing power of the currency. This is true regardless of what you use for the money, be it gold or St Patrick’s discovery of slave girls that were the unit of account for money in Ireland.
No matter what is money, it CAN NOT be fixed in value. It must be allowed to float, for there are always trends that shift back and forth. Therefore, the relentless creation of money is not because they are paper dollars. As I said, you are blaming the gun rather than the shooter. This is fiscal mismanagement created by Marxism, where the politicians no longer know how to run for office without bribing the people for their votes. This is the system that is completely doomed, the very same as communism fell. It’s just our turn.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 12, 2022 | Sundance
Mid-August CTH noted, “amid all of the headline warnings about inflation and prices of essential products, CTH notes that if we are to continue waiting about six months, we would see a massive backlog of unsold goods and as a consequence the prices of non-essential durable goods would begin a rapid decline. That exact scenario is about to unfold.” {link}
Today the world’s second largest appliance manufacturer, Electrolux, announced a collapse of corporate earnings -the result of the western alliance economic contraction- leading to major cost cutting and future incentive programs. [Announcement Link, emphasis mine]
(Electrolux) – […] Market demand for core appliances in Europe and the US so far in the third quarter is estimated to have decreased at a significantly accelerated pace compared with the second quarter, driven by the impact of high inflation on consumer durables purchases and low consumer confidence. High retailer inventory levels have amplified the impact of the slowdown in consumer demand.
In combination with supply chain imbalances resulting in significant production inefficiencies and increased costs, the third quarter earnings for the Group are expected to decline significantly compared to the second quarter 2022 also excluding the one-time cost to exit the Russia market. This has been driven mainly by Europe and North America. Business Area North America is expected to report an operating loss in the third quarter exceeding the loss in the second quarter.
Since market demand for 2023 is expected to continue to be weak in both regions, the Board has today decided to initiate a Group-wide cost reduction program addressing both variable and structural costs. The program, which starts immediately, will focus on reducing variable costs, with special attention to eliminating cost inefficiencies in our supply chain and production. The structural cost reductions will primarily take place in Europe and North America. (more)
Keep in mind, this is not necessarily a collapse of total global economic activity; what we are seeing is a collapse of western nation economic activity that is impacting the rest of the world. A great economic fracturing is taking place as the western nations intentionally shrink their economy. The supplier nations are feeling the consequences.
Keep in mind, South Korean factory output is now negative (electronics etc). European factory output is now negative (industrial equipment). Japanese factory output has dropped dramatically, and U.S. factory output has stalled. All of these issues overlay the statements by Maersk that shipping is not needed.
The western economies are contracting in response to the collective energy policies of the Build Back Better climate change agenda, and the high cost of energy that comes from stopping energy production.
Energy production in western nations has been slowed or stopped (Build Back Better). Western nation inflation is being driven by higher energy costs as a result of less energy products being produced, oil, coal, gas. Western banking groups have raised interest rates to slow down the economic engines to meet the drop in energy production.
All of this is being done with intent, purpose and control. This is a managed decline.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 8, 2022 | Sundance
Energy inflation continues to pummel all western nations as they chase the climate change agenda. Today, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates to support the goal of lowered economic activity. Lowering economic activity lowers energy use.
Absent of any desire to raise energy supply and/or energy production, monetary policy can support the goal of lowering energy use by driving down all economic activity.
In the big transition picture, the economies within the western alliance must be reduced until they match the energy output of windmills and solar farms.
FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank raised interest rates by the largest amount since the early days of Europe’s currency union, moving aggressively to combat record inflation even as an energy crisis puts Europe on the brink of recession.
The bank said in a statement that it would increase its key rate to 0.75% from zero—its second hike this year following a 50-basis-point rise in July—and signaled that further rises were likely over the coming months.
At a news conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that inflation was spreading beyond energy to a range of products. She said the ECB was ready to increase rates aggressively over the next several meetings.
“We want all economic actors to understand that the ECB is serious” about combating high inflation, Ms. Lagarde said. (read more)
A few months ago, amid all of the headline warnings about inflation and prices of essential products, CTH noted that if we were to continue waiting about six months, we would see a massive backlog of unsold goods and as a consequence the prices of non-essential durable goods would begin a rapid decline. That exact scenario is unfolding. Keep watching.
Keep in mind, this is not necessarily a collapse of total global economic activity; what we are seeing is a collapse of western nation economic activity that is impacting the rest of the world. A great economic fracturing is taking place as the western nations intentionally shrink their economy. The supplier nations are feeling the consequences.
All of this economic turmoil is running on an identical track -on a global basis- because the entire western plan was coordinated and followed. What we are seeing right now is the outcome of the “Build Back Better” roadmap. The “global inflation” is the outcome.
Joe Biden is blocking domestic energy production as he follows through with the agenda of the Green New Deal. In Europe, not coincidentally demanded by Biden, a similar outcome comes from the sanctions and blocking of Russian energy resources.
One could make a reasonable argument that the team behind Joe Biden specifically wanted the EU sanctions against Russia, because the U.S. crew wanted to keep both industrial economies mirroring each other as the U.S. energy system was dismantled. It would make sense to avoid a spotlight on the U.S. economic collapse, by forcibly pushing the EU economy into the same situation.
Taking that line of geopolitical and economic consequence one step further, and that would be part of the strategy -albeit undiscussed- behind having a consistent global cap on the price that any nation could pay for Russian oil. That approach is not about punishing Russia, it is to make all of the economic pain and problems equal amid all western nations. Globalists, and the central bankers, are good at creating economic systems to deliver equitable misery.
The Bank of England has admitted defeat, admitting they cannot prevent a recession. The pound fell to the lowest level against the USD on Wednesday afternoon after declining 0.64% to $1.145. When asked if the central bank could prevent the next recession, Governor Andrew Bailey was blunt in his answer. “Insofar as the war is having this huge effect, the answer to that would be no.”
I touched more on the decline and fall of Britain on the private blog last week. Socrates agrees with Bailey’s pessimistic stance. Inflation has surpassed 10% in the UK, and food and energy costs are expected to rise continually. The Bank of England now projects that the economy will shrink during Q4 2022, and the decline will continue until the end of 2023. Our models state that the decline will last longer than they expect.
If the new PM Truss is any indication of where policy is heading, Britain is in big trouble. Central banks do not like to admit defeat either. Look how Powell carefully changed his stance over the course of the year in terms of inflation. He did not want to create a panic by telling the public that they were screwed. The BoE has no other choice but to be brutally honest. The heads of central banks are now coming forward to offer their condolences for an issue they helped to create with artificially low rates. The BoE is still in better shape than the ECB, but that is not saying much.
There is NOTHING that the politicians EVER say that is the truth. Hiring 87,000 new IRS agents is NOT to go after billionaires as they claim. There are ONLY 614 billionaires in the United States. Clearly, you do not need 87,000 new agents to hunt down billionaires – they are coming after you!
There is no loose change in taxes the higher you go up in income. You then need professionals to handle the taxes and they cross every “t” and dot all the “i”s. They are targeting anyone with an LLC and will challenge all expenses. Don’t forget, if you go to dinner with a client, you can only write off 50% of the expense. Of course with COVID, we have a whole new crisis in taxes. The commuting costs evaporated working from home. What about writing off a portion of the home now if you no longer go to the office? Suddenly, COVID really complicated things over the past two years. Even if your house burns down, the IRS denies a tax deduction for the loss. Protesters against the IRS are just coincidently targeted for audits – purely coincidental. Obama used the IRS to target the Tea Party. The DOJ waited two years and then quietly dismissed any criminal charges against IRS agents. This is what we will expect for now they will target also protesters in climate change.
They do not need 87,000 new agents, armed to the teeth, to hunt down just 614 billionaires. It made good press, the same as when they introduced the income tax back in 1913 as SWORE on the soul of the dead mother and all their relatives, it would not apply to the rich. Small business and climate protesters will be the people targeted by the IRS.
Remember the cops raided the wrong house, killed the guy, and then they claimed he was an UNDOCUMENTED alien who had no Constitutional Rights, and thus it was OK to kill him. How about the wrong house raid where they kill the man and his dog but then kill a cop responding to a break-in – remember that one? There are so many where the cops storm the wrong house, the resident this it’s a break-in and defends himself only to be shot dead. I’m sure we will all sleep well knowing 87,000 IRS agents, armed to the teeth, are being trained to storm houses and released on society after 3 months worth of training.
In Canada, Trudeau is arming climate change police to do the same thing. Let’s face the facts. We the people are now the enemy – not Putin! This is the consequence of Marxism. We are nothing more than economic slaves.
Comment: I use Coinbase to hold some crypto. They sent me an email saying that my account that I had for years would be limited to withdrawals only if I do not give them updated government ID and download the latest version of the application. I use this on my PC and do not have the application. I worry they’ll take what is left of my failing cryptos. Luckily I only put “play money” into these holdings but I imagine others will experience losses and frozen accounts in the near future. The deadline they gave me was October – not sure if that is for all. I messaged out to Coinbase for help updating my account but cannot fully verify it after many tries.
Reply: Government hates cryptocurrency. They have always been concerned about their ability to squeeze out every last penny in taxes from crypto. I am not surprised that Coinbase is emailing users for additional documentation days after the Inflation Reduction Act was passed. With nearly 88,000 new IRS agents, there will certainly be teams of hundreds or thousands of accountants who will analyze all crypto holdings.
The initial idea behind the creation of crypto has been lost. I warned in March on our private blog on Socrates that cryptocurrencies may be suspended altogether one day. Biden could sign an Executive Order to regulate cryptos because countries like Russia can use it to circumvent sanctions. Not only is Biden authorizing the regulation of digital currencies, but he is also instructing to move forward with a central bank cryptocurrency. Once that is done, all other cryptocurrencies will be seized and folded into the government’s crypto. There will be no competition.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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