Tag Archives: ECB

Aug 14 2016

The New Highs in US Share Market Are they the Prelude to a Crash?


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Aug 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

trifecta

1998 SP500 July 20Finally, the Dow made new highs in the face of constant calls for a crash. This past week, in a horse race we would call it a trifecta where the Dow Jones Industrials,  S&P 500,and  the NASDAQ all made new record highs.  This sent a bunch of analysts to look again and began to proclaim that this was the first time that all three major indices have reached new highs on the same day since 1999. They then look at the charts and pronounce that the 1999 rally lasted only until 2000 and then crashed. Of course that was the DOT.COM Bubble and there was a massive wave of retail investor in the market back then compared to today.
There really is nothing similar whatsoever to this latest pronouncement. As always, people will try to reduce everything to turn upon a single reason. Here is a chart of the S&P500 and the crash of 1998, which was the Long-Term Capital Management debacle and the fall of Russian debt.

The market again peaked exactly to the day of the ECM back then. However, the crash was 58 days and then in 32 days the market rebound to the former high. Note that the there were three lows with the last and final low creating a Slingshot move, As I have warned, these type of moves are the most powerful and very necessary to propel any market to new record highs. You simply must trap the majority on the wrong side of the trend,

 

NASDAQ-EURO-1998-2012-WNASDAQ-1998-2012-W

The DOT.COM Bubble was the last great capital inflow from around the world. Both Europeans and Asians were pouring money into the DOT.COM Bubble – it was by no means a local event. This move was the classic Phase Transition. However, when we look at that in terms of the Euro (which we recreated using the same formula extending back in time), we get the same Phase Transition rally

We do not see a stark difference between the patterns in dollars as we see in euros. Hence, this attracted foreign capital creating an explosive rally which we call the Phase Transition.


NASDAC-W Euro 8-13-2016NASDAQ-W 8-13-2016

Now, when we look at the current position of the NASDAQ both in dollars and euros, we see something different. In dollars we made the new highs. However, when looking at this is euros, we do not yet see new highs being made. As always, things are not always as they seem to the local observer.

So the last magic formula going around was the 9 day consecutive decline which was supposed to lead to a crash. OOPS. Here might be another brilliant observation.

Aug 14 2016

The Panic of 1683 Was the First


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Aug 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Panics-168301907

This is the list of panics I discovered in the library at Princeton University. I simply added the period of 224 years from 1683 to 1907 which yield 8.615 as the common frequency dividing that period by the 26 events. I did not expect this to produce events to the day. The mere fact that events would happen precisely to the day as they did in 1981, 1985, 1987, 2001, 2002, and 2007 just to mention a few, beat the odds that this was somehow just coincidence or dumb luck. It has been fascinating discovering how this frequency has dominated history from ancient times to the present.

DecFollis295-348AD

From the collapse of the Roman Monetary System to just 8.6 years or six wave creating 51.6 years intervals like the collapse of the Roman Follis. It is fascinating to say the least that such a calculation has been so powerful throughout nature, humanity, and destiny.

Nevertheless, by dumb luck, this list of Panics was international and not relegated to a single isolated country. With 1683 for a start, that was the financial panic that disrupted Europe for the Ottoman invasion of Europe with the attempt to take the capital of Europe, the seat of the Holy Roman Emperor in Vienna. So where this calculation began, obviously included was as well.

Aug 14 2016

Germany the 800 pound Gorilla


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Aug 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

800-pound-gorrila

This week, a German cooperative savings bank in the Bavarian village of Gmund am Tegernsee with less than 10,000 in population, announced it will begin charging retail customers to hold their cash starting in September. This will apply to accounts greater than €100,000 euros. This means the bank will charge customers 0.4 percent, which amounts to a direct pass-through of the current level of the ECB’s negative deposit rate. After speaking directly with banking sources, what is happening is that cash is flooding into German banks from around Europe just to park avoiding the negative deposit rate. Now, the banks are starting to pass the negative rates back to the clients. However, much of this flow of capital has also been money fleeing other banks outside of Germany for fear that the euro will break and they will get Deutschemarks.

However, THE 800 POUND GORILLA in the corner of the room is Deutsche Bank itself. Rumor has it that its derivative book is 5 times the GDP of Germany. The real issue here is what happens when Deutsche Bank needs more than a banana? This is the largest bank in Germany and thus the most important bank for all of Europe even if you do not bank there. Can Germany really allow the BAIL-IN process to take place? Politically, this would be total disaster economically, politically, and for the stability of the EU itself. The theory which destroyed Cyrus and has wreaked havoc in Greece, if applied to the largest economy of Europe, will destroy all confidence in Brussels.

Does the fate of Europe hinge on the fate of Deutsche Bank? If the Germans blink, what are the ramifications that will reverberate throughout Europe? These are issues we will discuss at the upcoming WEC Institutional Session.

Aug 13 2016

Globalists Unite: Hillary Clinton Running Mate Tim Kaine Dines with George Soros’ Son as Donald Trump’s Rise Terrifies World Elite


Now there is one evil connection — I can image one much worse or with such bad , no horrible potential!

Aug 13 2016

New York Times Tells Truth About US Gov’t ISIS Connection


Any legitimate study will show that the US created ISIS with the policy’s that the administration of Obama and Hillary used in supporting the Arab Spring. There that creation was intentional or collateral damage is yet to be determined but the fact is that the US did, in fact, create ISIS ans initially arm it though Benghazi

Aug 13 2016

Klayman – 2nd American Revolution May Be Inevitable, Soros To Blame


ts hard to find a person more evil that George Soros!

Aug 13 2016

KOMMONSENTSJANE – MAN AND WOMAN


It seems that someone in the Army branch of the military is going to remove the “man” word out of the military  MANUALS in order to make it more inclusive.  It will be a giant step when…

Source: KOMMONSENTSJANE – MAN AND WOMAN

Aug 13 2016

KOMMONSENTSJANE – OBAMA PASSES THE DARK ACT INTO LAW


Just one more assault on our freedoms get use to it people there are a lot more coming if Hillary gets in.

kommonsentsjane's avatarkommonsentsjane

President Obama Just Signed The DARK Act Into Law

July 31, 2016

By Heather Callaghan

We regret to inform you that President Barack Obama signed into law, S. 764, which was the newest manifestation of the DARK Act (Denying Americans the Right to Know).

The DARK Acts were a way to establish federal labeling – i.e. the lack of GM labeling – and would banish all state labeling initiatives under a federal standard.

A brief press release by the White House simply mentioned a list of bills and S. 764, “which directs the Secretary of Agriculture to establish a national mandatory bioengineered food disclosure standard,” was listed at the end. The “disclosure standard” must be an inside joke, because the disclosure involves the consumer having to scan a QR code on a food product to find out about genetically modified ingredients, or call a 1-800 number. These measures might not…

View original post 656 more words

Aug 12 2016

Tracking Everyone Hunting for Money on Trains or in the Air


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Aug 12, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Custom Agents

 

We have certainly embarked down the road of a police state. Federal agencies are tracking people who travel on trains or in the air. If someone buys a ticket for cash, they government is notified. They are looking for the slightest thing. I went to the airport to pick up a friend who comes over to the States maybe four times a year. I ended up waiting for nearly 3 hours. They took the person and searched everything. The agent then handed them to someone else and said “see if you can find something! I found nothing.”  Finally, they escorted them out to me and then began interrogating me saying that frequent trips set off a “red flag” and then asked what I did simply because I was there to pick them up. I am not easily intimidated and can hold my ground. So they backed off and released them.

I was flying back to the States from Europe over the July 4th holiday. My ticket was originally booked for JFK in New York. I then remembered the travel would be horrific so I switched to Philadelphia. When I landed, I was met by two IRS agents. Apparently there was sting they set up at JFK looking for American coming home for holidays who do not pay taxes here. I said you can check I pay my taxes here and do not live overseas. That was not good enough. They though I was tipped off to their sting in NYC and sent two agents to intercept me in Philadelphia simply because I switched planes.

I took the train from Brussels to London after meetings there with government so I was dressed in a suit and tie. Everyone else on the train were tourists. I was the only called aside by British customs. They asked how much money did I have on me. I showed them my US passport. That was NOT enough. They wanted to see my ticket where I bought it and how I paid.

When I returned from our Berlin Conference last year, I dressed casual in jeans. But traveling alone I was again singled out. Again they wanted to know how much cash I had on me. The hunt for money is getting really bad. You cannot train on a train in Europe without them looking for money. In Italy, they confiscated a stack of bonds from a passenger on the train to Switzerland. A staff member left Switzerland on the train for a meeting in Lichtenstein which goes through France. The train was stopped in France and police search bags looking for cash.

In the USA, now even the DEA is searching all travel records on trains and in the air. They target people who buy one-way tickets or pay cash for a ticket. We should just legalize drugs and that would end the crime and the confiscation of citizens. Now everyone is a suspect for the slightest thing.

Aug 12 2016

Solar Physicist Sees Global Cooling Ahead


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Aug 12, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Day AFter Tomorrow

While the government is using the global warming theory to raise taxes, the real danger is global cooling. The significance of being unprepared means that we will face a rising threat of a food shortage in the years ahead. This is the real danger of global cooling.

CRNFOR-Y

It does appear that we are looking at a rise in food prices after 2017. This will, in part, be caused by  weather, but we must also respect that there is rising civil unrest that typically corresponds to a reduction in food supplies.