Tag Archives: Supply Side Inflation

Feb 11 2023

WIll Russia Have Any Choice But to Nuke Ukraine?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, does your computer suggest that Russia will launch nuclear weapons on Ukraine?

Your computer seems to be the only straight no-nonsense in the middle of this insanity.

Thank you

SK

ANSWER: The West is the aggressor and they are out to destroy Russia pretending that they are saving the planet because it is a major fossil fuel producer. That is not nonsense, It is real.

What I can say is that there is an element inside Russia who have been pressing for them to just nuke Ukraine pointing out that when the US did that to Japan, it ended the war. They see this now as a war against NATO, which has been perfectly fine if every Ukrainian citizen dies for their end goal. To appear more human than the United States, Russia would give the civilians 72 hours to leave the area. They would justify themselves by pointing to the USA which gave no effective notice to civilians other than listing a number of cities and not really explaining what would happen with one nuclear bomb. It gave the impression of just bombing where people could take shelter below ground. Russia would make it clear this is a tactical or strategic nuclear weapon so leave now. Zelensky would be the first to flee.

The West has been pushing for war and the US/NATO have been hoping to destroy Russia conventionally and then just walk into Moscow to a TICJER-TAPE PARADE that they expected and never got. These people are delusional. Russia is now well aware that this is a strategic war to destroy their country once and for all. The attack on the pipeline demonstrates that this was a permanent action to cut off all fossil fuel sales to Europe. The West is pushing Russia into a corner and they now realize this is to destroy Russia as a nation. That will not leave many options. The US and NATO are not prepared to leave Russia still standing as a superpower and one of the largest producers of fossil fuels.

The US leaflet they dropped on some 50 cities read:

The ‘LeMay Leaflet’
“Read this carefully as it may save your life or the life of a relative or friend. In the next few days, some or all of the cities named on the reverse side will be destroyed by American bombs. These cities contain military installations and workshops or factories which produce military goods. We are determined to destroy all of the tools of the military clique which they are using to prolong this useless war. But, unfortunately, bombs have no eyes. So, in accordance with America’s humanitarian policies, the American Air Force, which does not wish to injure innocent people, now gives you warning to evacuate the cities named and save your lives. America is not fighting the Japanese people but is fighting the military clique which has enslaved the Japanese people. The peace which America will bring will free the people from the oppression of the military clique and mean the emergence of a new and better Japan. You can restore peace by demanding new and good leaders who will end the war. We cannot promise that only these cities will be among those attacked but some or all of them will be, so heed this warning and evacuate these cities immediately.”

Feb 11 2023

Zelensky the Man to Destroy the Future of the Entire World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Germany is now also debating to reinstitute the military draft. I warned from the outset that Zelensky was nothing more than an actor and he was handed the role of a lifetime to pretend to be the head of state of Ukraine and everything he said to get elected was an outright lie. There is absolutely NOTHING Zelensky says which has EVER been the truth – that is what he was paid to do and instructed by the West’s Neocons who cannot sleep at night as long as China and Russia still exist.

The Neocons are driving this agenda and the West is the aggressor. They will sacrifice your family for their goals. They are the real war criminals for they have been manipulating everything from the start. Zelensky ran on ending corruption yet has been stashing millions offshore himself. He also promised peace with Donbas which would have been simple to just yield to the Minsk II Agreement of 2015 and let the people vote on their independence. Now we know that the West only pretended to negotiate with Putin and never intended to honor any agreement. Worse still, confidential sources also confirm the slick way the West has renigged on all prior treaties with Russia. Their view is those treaties were with the USSR, and that no longer exists so they are not bound by anything anymore.

CNN reported back in 2019 that “Ukraine has been locked in a proxy war with Russia for five years, and the conflict has claimed around 13,000 lives in the country’s east.”

Interestingly, the Kremlin was hopeful that Zelensky would end the proxy war of the United States against Russia as Zelensky promised. His predecessor, Poroshenko, was seen as pro-war who participated in the Minsk II Agreement. In fact, CNN also reported that Russia was optimistic. They even wrote:

“There are chances to improve Ukraine’s interaction with our country,” Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Facebook. “What is needed for this? Honesty. And we need a pragmatic and responsible approach.”

CNN further reported on April 23rd, 2019 that Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, had suggested Kyiv could actually change the direction of the country. CNN quoted her saying, “With all the understanding of how the world works behind the scenes, I’ll still say: Ukraine can go for a reset.” The hope in Russia that Zelensky would carry out his campaign promise to seek peace and end the civil war died very quickly.

Zelensky is the 21st Century Judas. He has sold his country to the Neocons for total destruction all to weaken Russia for the final kill. He immediately said if Russia is not stopped now, it will take all of Europe. That is such nonsense but the brainwashed believe this rhetoric.

Zelensky is by no means doing this on his own. He is following orders. Just as I was in the middle of the attempt to take over Russia back 1999 with the bankers blackmailing Yeltsin. That covert effort forced Yeltsin to turn to Putin because he was not a Communist. For you see, the Communists were also trying to impeach him, I worked on Capital Hill and even knew the Neocons including John McCain with whom I even corresponded. Bill Kristol, who was a Neocon behind the Iraq Invasion, I knew and he even spoke at one of our WEC events I believe in 1995 or 1997 since Margaret Thatcher spoke at our WEC in 1996.

What I write is not speculation or conspiracy theories. I have been in the middle of these events for a long-time and, as many have said, I just knew too much. I speak out in hopes of reducing the volatility where others simply want war and always assume they will win never considering the possibility – What if they are WRONG! I hope the military will stand by the people and not sacrifice their own lives for the dreams of hate that emerge from every pore of Neocon’s skin.

Then the brainwashed say the aggressor has been Putin. They ignore everything and refuse to see that this has been choreographed from the beginning.

Feb 10 2023

Digital Dollars – the Real Agenda


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

I know we have a lot of people expressing their opinion that the dollar will crash because when the government converts it to digital, it will be like spy wear tracking everything we do. Now you have people running around preaching the dollar will crash any day citing Biden’s Executive Order 14067. However, read it carefully and you will see what I have been saying that they will NEVER allow cryptocurrencies to compete with the sovereign currency.

“(ii) My Administration sees merit in showcasing United States leadership and participation in international fora related to CBDCs and in multi country conversations and pilot projects involving CBDCs.”

I have reported back in 2021 that the Bank of England proposed that digital currency should be programmable. A mother should be able to block her child from spending money on candy. If mom can do that, then big brother can do it on a grand scale.

The monopoly of the government to create money goes back to ancient times. They will not surrender that power. They have allowed cryptocurrencies to exist ONLY to get the people to embrace them letting the private sector sell the idea and then they will confiscate them all.

Feb 8 2023

Powell – The Fed – Interest Rates


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks Re-Posted Feb 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, Powell spoke onstage here at the Economic Club of Washington. As always, nobody seems to know central banks like you. Powell point-blank said that the Fed may have to continue to raise rates more than what the marketplace has already priced in if the jobs market stays unexpectedly strong. I know you hate our town, but perhaps you should consider speaking here at the club.

Thank you for the global education. You are indeed a legend in your own time as they call you.

P

REPLY: Thanks for the invite. Not sure I want to fly to the real Tinseltown. We have to come to the cold hard fact that there are no alternatives to the Keynesian theory. It’s not just the Fed. When I do interviews, I tend to be controversial because everyone, including the Goldbugs and countless analysts, all rely on the very same set of theories.

The premise remains to increase the supply of money and it MUST be inflationary. The Fed raises rates to reduce consumption and lower rates to stimulate consumption. It’s a very nice theory, but when actually tested, it utterly fails. Lower rates will NEVER cause people to invest UNTIL they believe that there is an opportunity to invest.

The peak in interest rates took place in 1899 at virtually 200%. Yet, 1929 was the real bubble top and it peaked with 20% interest rates in call money on the NYSE. In theory, the biggest boom should have been met with the highest interest rate. In truth, the “real interest rate” as I have defined it is when the interest rates exceed expectations. If you think the stock market will double, you will pay 25% interest.

As you can see, while interest rates hit nearly 200% in 1899, the share market did NOT crash percentage-wise anything as it did following 1929. Look, there is a lot more to this than meets the eye. Everything must be addressed on a global scale for it all depends also on the direction of capital flows. There is just a lot more to this than simply the money supply and interest rates.

Feb 8 2023

Fed Chair Jerome Powell States Ongoing Rate Increases Are Appropriate Given Strength of Labor Market


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 7, 2023 | Sundance

This guy is really a piece of work.  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers remarks to the pontificating pustules at the DC Economic Club.  Within his remarks, notice how Powell used the word “disinflation” to describe how prices are starting to drop in the “goods sector.”

Of course, durable goods are dropping in price, fewer consumers have any money to buy them.  Yes, excess manufactured goods created by the disappearance of buyers will naturally lead to lowered prices by those who need to sell them.  Our economic problem is not, and was not, ever an outcome of excessive demand for durable goods.

Our economic problem is the scale of energy price increases that are chewing through paychecks and driving up the costs of high-turn consumables like food.

Massive price increases for food, fuel, energy, electricity, home heating and natural gas eating up paychecks.  There is no room for discussion about the next phone, refrigerator, or new car that might be needed.  Simultaneous to ignoring this issue, Chairman Powell is giddy that wages are not rising.  WATCH:

.

The process of bringing inflation down to the Fed’s goal of 2% over time “is likely to take quite a bit of time. It’s not going to be, we don’t think, smooth. It’s probably going to be bumpy,” Mr. Powell said Tuesday. “So we think we’re going to have to do further [rate] increases, and we think we’ll have to hold policy at a restrictive level for some time.” (WSJ Article)

Never has this cartoon been more apropos.

Feb 7 2023

Can the Future be Altered?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong Economics 101 Re-Posted Feb 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good afternoon – Will try to make this one quick. Know you are busy. Have you ever asked Socrates how to “defeat” its predictions? Or to reduce volatility/amplitude of projected events?

(Really, you should be recognized alongside Adam Smith, Ricardo, et al. for your discoveries and contributions.)

JN

ANSWER: Because the entire world is connected, it does not appear that it is possible to prevent an event from unfolding. I have come to the conclusion that the best we can ever hope to accomplish is to reduce the magnitude of volatility.

The CFTC had even subpoenaed me demanding a list of all my clients worldwide. I defeated them in court. Their argument was that I had been manipulating the world economy and by turning over my client list, they would prove the magnitude of my influence. These people do not believe in forecasting for they only believe in manipulating society. Even Larry Summers claimed that if you create a model that actually worked, then that would dictate the future.

What these people miss is the fact that we are all connected globally. This is why government IS THE PROBLEM for they think that they can manipulate the future. But since we are all connected globally, it is impossible for one nation to alter the course of the global trend.

The world economy cannot be manipulated. It is far too complex to alter the course of the entire globe. It has been governments that have always created war. Look at every time the bankers thought that they had the guaranteed perfect trade, they have blown up and run to the government for bailouts.

Their allegation against me has never changed. If I say gold will double and it does, it is ONLY because I have too many people as followers rather than the fact that the computer has identified the trend.

So Socrates has confirmed on many occasions – the world economy must travel through these cycles. It is just how society functions.

Feb 4 2023

2018 Warning of Coming Bond Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted Feb 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Feb 3 2023

War & Real Estate


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Sir,
Hello from Europe and a hopeful new year.
In WW2 in Athens, people were exchanging their apartments for a few liters of olive oil, hence real estate went really down.
The short question that you can answer even with a yes or no:
If this year’s aggressivity in terms of war actions will rise, what happens? Will real estate fall on the first stage and then – due to governmental actions – will rise again?
It is a bit confusing while I am trying to understand the mechanism… economy is not simple at all.
Thank you.
SM

ANSWER: The real truth about real estate and war, declines the closer you get to the action. When we look at our models for European real estate, it clearly shows 2023 as a directional change and it appears to be heading into a Panic Cycle for 2027. Our leaders project like we should all go charge into Russia and defeat it in a matter of weeks or just days. Besides the fact that they never discuss that civilian deaths are twice as high as military, they also never talk about how the net worth of everyone in Europe will decline. Your house will decline in value for (1) people are not interested in buying a new home in times of uncertainty, and (2) interest rates will rise sharply due to inflation which is also part of the war cycle.

Lydia, in modern Turkey where coins were invented, shows the impact of war. It was Lydia v Person (Cyrus the Great) and we see the very first debasement in recorded history which accompanies war. The coinage was debased showing roughly a 25% devaluation in the purchasing power during the 6th century BC.

The Peloponnesian War in Greece saw the Athenian Owl reduced from silver to bronze and just silver plated. We find the same trend in Rome. There is NEVER any exception to this rule.

Beware, as the West insists upon expanding this war, you are sacrificing all your life savings in real estate for the political nonsense of our leaders in Europe as a whole. They are true war criminals. They could settle this in a day. Just honor the Minsk Agreement.

Feb 3 2023

Is Digital Currency Safe?


Armstrong economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

It turns out that North Korea-backed hackers stole a record $1.7bn of cryptocurrency in 2022, according to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis. It also appears that they had a hand in the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX where the auditors have reported that around $415m of cryptocurrency has been stolen by hackers.  This is becoming a very interesting story with several facets from funding North Korea to laundering money for Zelensky to pay off the Democrats for the Midterm elections.

There is no way they will let this case go to trial. They will have to cut a deal or they are going to need to have some pumped-up loser kill him when on bail, or Judge Lewis Kaplan will have to revoke his bail and put him in MCC where they can kill him easily and blame another inmate and the guards fell asleep once again and, of course, the camera didn’t work.

At the end of the day, North Korea has been making a lot of money hacking into cryptocurrencies. Your crypto is going to a good cause – World War III to achieve Bill Gate’s dream – population reduction since the vaccines did not kill enough people off – yet.

Feb 3 2023

What is Really Behind the Rise in Interest Rates?


Amstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The European Central Bank has just announced its monetary policy statement that the “will stay the course in raising interest rates significantly at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term target.”

Besides inflation, the other problem that governments are having is that there is a lack of a bid on the long end. That is why Yellen proposed swamping in long-term for the short-term. Furthermore, it is becoming obvious that Western governments are pushing for war with Russia and China. Institutions have been frantically calling us about restructuring their portfolios because war is coming, they see the debt expanding and rates rising further so why buy the long-term only to lose money?

Then we have Klaus Schwab and George Soros who are pushing for world war perhaps because they are so old and do not expect to be here anyway – so why not take a bunch of us with them?  Like an Egyptian Pharoah who has all his servants killed upon his death to travel with him to the next world to serve him.

So we have inflation, war, and the ultimate end game of defaulting on the debt as they did after World War II and creating a new Bretton Woods with cryptocurrency so they can track everything we do. Welcome to the wonderland of Klaus Schwab where you own nothing, and will be a mindless ant in a clever Lenistic world of perfect order and absolute control.