Tag Archives: The Forecaster

Jan 31 2019

Markets Cheer a Recession?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks

Re-Posted Jan 31, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The rally in gold and the stock market together is demonstrating that eventually, we will see the alignment as it transforms from Public to Private assets. The most deranged reaction to the Federal Reserve saying they will be “patient” on any further rate moves, is just beyond all reason. But markets are not always rational – they tend to trade emotionally much of the time.

The Fed also said that it would be flexible on the path for reducing its balance sheet. The Federal Open Market Committee’s statement twice refers to “financial developments.” The actual passages Powell read the first one verbatim in his press conference

“In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.”

“This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”

The talking heads have so distorted reason that the markets interpreted it as complete capitulation. The two-year Treasury yield, the most sensitive coupon-bearing maturity to Fed policy, dropped like a stone 4 basis points to 2.53% percent. The yield curve steepened, as everyone expected the Fed would stop raising short-term rates. Of course, you have the pundits claiming that Powell has yielded to the correction in the stock market. They argue that Powell and other officials made their new posture clear. Additionally, Powell disclosed that the FOMC is evaluating the appropriate timing for the end of the central bank’s balance-sheet reduction and that they would be looking to finalize their plans on that issue going forward.

The pundits seem to ignore history completely. They are touting that the Fed was backed into a corner by financial-market volatility. It is just totally amazing how ignorant these people are when it comes to the global economy and the business cycle.

The Fed ALWAYS lower interest rates NOT because of the stock market, but because of an economic decline. A stock market decline by itself is no big deal. We did not even elect a single Monthly Bearish Reversal. There was no significant damage from that respect. The real issue being ignored here is the entire world is declining sharply into 2020 on an economic level. Lowering interest rates NEVERsupports a collapse in the stock market. The Fed even raised interest rates as the market was falling in 1931 because the dollar was under pressure during the Sovereign Debt Crisis.

 

 

It is so amazing how oblivious pundits are to what is unfolding around the world. Trump is correct. The USA has been the strongest economy. However, the US is starting to slow and overseas is having a very bad dream. Just look at the DAX which not only was a major crash, it closed BELOW the low of 2017. The US market has been the BEST performer. The Fed is NOT taking action based on the stock market. That is absurd.

 

The US share market has outperformed everything in terms of currency from the international perspective. While the pundits had forecast Europe as a great buy two years ago, people simply lost tons of money on that forecast and their buy of Emerging Markets.

We are now going to go down very hard economically into 2020. The Fed is under a lot of pressure from other central banks pleading with it to stop raising rates for they cannot raise rates. The ECM is in no position to stop Quantitative Easing. The Fed’s actions here have ZERO to do with the stock market. This is the culmination of the economic decline into 2020 that began in 2015.

The Fed is not going to lower rates dramatically. While rates closed at 2.5% for 2018, resistance still stands at 2.67% here in 2019 so rates have not broken out just yet. It is unlikely that the Fed will lower rates of more than 1%. That could unfold after May if the election in Europe create havoc over the future. So far everything is on target. Last year was a Directional Change and 2019 is a turning point with 2020 coming in as another Directional Change and 2021 in a Panic Cycle. So hang on tight. We are in for some really confusing good times as we conclude this business cycle into 2020. Sorry – the Fed did not lower rates to help the stock market. It lowered rates because we are in a global economic recession into 2020. All I have been hearing is complaints from central banks around the world. They can see what is unfolding.

 

Jan 30 2019

Will Trump Lose in 2020? But to Who?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Jan 30, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

 

There is a very interesting aspect of our model which will begin to come into play in 2020. The cycle is changing here in 2019 and we are entering a period of a new political trend into 2023. This not such a great thing for either party. What is clearly taking place is that the shutdown seems to have been a turning point. True, Trumps polls have collapsed to 37% approval. But at the same time, faith in Congress has also collapsed. This is introducing a trend our model has been pointing to – the rise of a 3rd Party going all the way into 2024. Polls are fickle. It is a long time between here and the election in 2020.

The attention span of the people seems to be too short to remember this shutdown one two years from now. Trump miscalculated. The President is ALWAYS credited or blamed because people assume the President is all powerful. So Pelosi understood that no matter what she does, Trump will be blamed and not her. Trump had to yield for the shutdown will reduce the GDP and he will be unable to say he has done a good job with a strong economy. That is just how politics works in Washington and it was a hard lesson Trump had to learn. Still, the damage is not really about the shutdown itself. It seems to be centered on the fact that both sides acted like children demonstrating that neither party seems capable of managing anything.

 

When we arrive at 2020, this is the big turning point for a 3rd Party. The Press and career politicians on both sides are out to get Trump simply because he is not one of them. But that does not mean the people are ready to surrender to career politicians once again. The crazy thing on our model is that it clearly shows that there is a 13 election year cycle coming into play in 2020 for a strong 3rd Party Showing. In 1912, there was a 30% vote for a 3rd party. Then in 1968, there was a 13% vote for a 3rd party. Since the last 3rd party took 19% in 1992 and 10% in 1996, a 3rd party this time could match or exceed 19% in 2020.

We already have the former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz talking about that he may run in 2020 but as an Independent. As crazy as that may sound to those wrapped up in party politics, our model is showing that this is the trend.

That Fox Poll is most interesting. It said that 46% of Republicans identified with Trump rather than the Republican Party. The implications of this are significant. It is not that Trump is some fantastic person, but that people are beginning to identify with candidates instead of parties. This is confirming what our computer is forecasting. The rise of a 3rd party is ripe for the taking. More and more people will vote for a person rather than a party.

The generation of Roosevelt is gone. There is really no adult from the Great Depression still alive today. Therefore, despite the critical emails I get, this is never about my opinion. The numbers are the numbers as is time. This has NOTHING to do with who I would vote for. Quite frankly, I do not see either party as doing anything to save the nation no less the world from the shift in power our computer is forecasting.

 

Jan 30 2019

Thanks to Bankers – Student Loans Are Suppressing our Future & Destroying the Real Estate Market


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

RE-Posted Jan 30, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

I have warned that the entire Student Loan Crisis has significantly altered the economy thanks to the Clintons courting the New York bankers making Student Loans the exception to bankruptcy. In Florida, like many other states, if you are in default on your student loans, the medical license to obtained is suspended. The Florida State Board of health has stated that some 900 healthcare workers were in danger of losing their license over the past two years because they were in default of their student loans. The board clarified it worked out repayment plans with most of those workers. It estimates the actual number of health care license suspensions is between 90 and 120 since November 2016. We may yet see the Yellow Vest Movement erupt in the United States over Student Loans.

The situation with student loans has gone from bad to worse. Bankers will try to get the parents to still co-sign for their child – DO NOT DO SUCH A THING!!!!! The degrees are worthless in most fields except health and law. The bankers have circumvented all your legal rights because the student loan is the exception to bankruptcy so they can take your house and you cannot even argue fraud.

Then there is the fact that even death does not relieve a parent of a student loan. Marcia DeOliveira-Longinetti’s son was killed, and after death, the remaining balance of his federal student loans were written off, but not by the state of  New Jersey. The state told his mother, “Your request does not meet the threshold for loan forgiveness.” What the Clintons did to students is really horrible. Even Zillow’s research, the big realtor, has reported that student debt has impacted the real estate market in many ways reducing future buyers.

FOX News reported that the U.S. Marshals Service in Houston was arresting people for failing to pay their outstanding federal student loans. Actually, Paul Aker, the subject of the Fox News report, failed to appear in court so the court sent U.S. Marshals to his home where he was arrested for a $1500 federal student loan he received in 1987. Of course, when they arrest anyone, the reason is irrelevant. Everyone is treated the same. If he ran, they would have shot him in the back and killed him on the spot and they would NEVER be prosecuted.

After seven U.S. Marshals burst into Aker’s home with guns drawn, they took him to federal court where he had to sign a payment plan for the 29-year-old school loan. Thank you, Hillary. I honestly do not know how anyone could have possibly voted for her. This is totally insane. The judge could just as easily thrown him in prison on contempt of court and not release him until he pays the $1500. It’s all about a judge’s power to act as if he still represents a king.

The Student Loan Crisis is serious. The US census showed that one-third of children over 30 were still living with their parents. This is also taking place in Britain thanks to rising taxes which lower disposable income. There are greater odds of your children living with you until they are 35. The real shocking number is that 40% of millennials are still dependent on mom and dad. The excuses seem endless. Student Loan debt can make buying a home IMPOSSIBLE! This is part of the reason real estate has been in a bear market since 2007 when we look at the average home.

realestate

The entire Student Loan Crisis has altered the real estate market significantly. While the High-End rallied into 2015 as capital was trying to get off the grid, as one friend in the real estate business put it, if prices ever got back to 2007, 50% of the State of New Jersey would go up for sale. The average market for homes has been declining overall. There are pockets where houses have risen, but these upon close inspection are the destinations where people are fleeing to from states like California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut among others.

The real estate profile has another weight dragging it down – TAXES. Real Estate is IMMOVABLEand as states go broke, they keep raising property taxes. The states with NET declines in population because the smart people have been fleeing, leaving behind people who are not paying attention and become trapped because there are no buyers. One friend here in Florida moved from New Jersey and rents out his home back there because he cannot sell it. He rents it at this stage just to pay the taxes.

The states with no income taxes are a net migration seeking refuge from other places. Florida seems to get New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Nevada and Texas are getting those fleeing Illinois and California. Nonetheless, the overall view of real estate looks rather grim into 2032 insofar as scoring REAL gains over the depreciation in the purchasing power of a currency. Then add the rising interest rates and you will discover that bankers are no longer willing to lend money at fixed rates for 30 years.

 

Jan 30 2019

When is Printing Money Deflationary rather than Inflationary


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

RE-Posted Jan 30, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: It seems the Left Wing Progressives in the US House (opponents of Pelosi) have adopted the Money Market Theory of Prof. Stephanie Kelton of U of MO.-Kansas City to justify unlimited deficit spending of the US Govt. OK as the Govt. can finance its deficits by unlimited currency printing.

Would you please comment.

Thanks and keep up the good work.

MP.

ANSWER: Actually, there would be no issue if the government simply created money to fund its normal expenditure. Historically, that will produce very modest inflation. The crisis is when you borrow to fund that deficit spending. In 2019, interest expenditures may now exceed the cost of defense. It is far cheaper to create the money needed than borrow and keep rolling the deficits forever. Then the cumulative interest keeps rising and crowds out all other expenditures. This is what is happening.

The process underway creates DEFLATION, not INFLATION, because the governments keep raising taxes to fund the deficits and that reduces the disposable income. This is why we see riots in France. Yes, people earn more, but they are being left with an eroding disposable income base. Governments need to fund themselves so they raise taxes. But the interest expenditures keep rising and consume all other areas of spending. It becomes a self-defeating process that leads to the crash and burn.

 

Jan 29 2019

Justice Department Announces Criminal Charges Involving Chinese Company Huawei…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 29, 2019 by 

According to the DOJ announcement released today three companies: Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd., Huawei Device USA Inc. and Skycom Tech Co. Ltd. are charged with bank fraud and conspiracy to commit bank fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud, violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and conspiracy to violate IEEPA, and conspiracy to commit money laundering. Huawei and Huawei USA are charged with conspiracy to obstruct justice related to the grand jury investigation in the Eastern District of New York.

Additionally Ms. Meng Wanzhou is charged with bank fraud, wire fraud, and conspiracies to commit bank and wire fraud.  Acting U.S. Attorney General Matthew G. Whitaker, Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Secretary Wilbur Ross of the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Attorney Richard P. Donoghue for the Eastern District of New York, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, Assistant Attorney General Brian A. Benczkowski of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division and Assistant Attorney General John C. Demers of the National Security Division, announced the charges:

Transcript of AAG Matt Whitaker announcement HERE.

Details of DOJ Indictment HERE.

Jan 29 2019

U.S. Treasury Department Places New Sanctions on Venezuela State-Owned Oil Industry PDVSA…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 28, 2019 by 

Keep in mind that China has loaned Venezuela over $50 billion in the past five years. In exchange, Venezuela gave China a 49% stake in PDVSA. Venezuela makes payments on the loans via oil shipments to China.

(VIA U.S. Treasury Dept) Today the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA) pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13850 for operating in the oil sector of the Venezuelan economy. PdVSA is a Venezuelan state-owned oil company and a primary source of Venezuela’s income and foreign currency, to include U.S. dollars and Euros.

“The United States is holding accountable those responsible for Venezuela’s tragic decline, and will continue to use the full suite of its diplomatic and economic tools to support Interim President Juan Guaidó, the National Assembly, and the Venezuelan people’s efforts to restore their democracy,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin.

“Today’s designation of PdVSA will help prevent further diverting of Venezuela’s assets by Maduro and preserve these assets for the people of Venezuela. The path to sanctions relief for PdVSA is through the expeditious transfer of control to the Interim President or a subsequent, democratically elected government.”

As with previous OFAC designations of certain Venezuelan officials and their supporters, U.S. sanctions need not be permanent. Sanctions are intended to change behavior. The United States has made it clear that we will consider lifting sanctions for those who take concrete, meaningful, and verifiable actions to support democratic order and combat corruption in Venezuela, including PdVSA.

As Venezuela’s state owned oil company, PdVSA has long been a vehicle for corruption. A variety of schemes have been designed to embezzle billions of dollars from PdVSA for the personal gain of corrupt Venezuelan officials and businessmen. For example, a 2014 currency exchange scheme was designed to embezzle and launder around $600 million from PdVSA, money obtained through bribery and fraud. By May 2015, the conspiracy had allegedly doubled in amount, to $1.2 billion embezzled from PdVSA.

Abraham Edgardo Ortega, a Venezuelan national who was PdVSA’s executive director of financial planning, pled guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering for his role in the billion-dollar international scheme to launder funds embezzled from PdVSA.

In a separate case, U.S. prosecutors have alleged that, from 2011 to 2013, senior Government of Venezuela and PdVSA officials, including Nervis Villalobos, the former Venezuelan vice minister of energy; Rafael Reiter, who worked as PdVSA’s head of security and loss prevention; and Luis Carlos de Leon, a former official at a state-run electric company, sought bribes and kickbacks from vendors in exchange for helping them secure PdVSA contracts and gain priority over other vendors for outstanding invoices during its liquidity crisis.

Today’s action designating PdVSA follows a determination by Secretary Mnuchin pursuant to E.O. 13850 that persons operating in the oil sector of the Venezuelan economy may be subject to sanctions.

Concurrent with this action, OFAC is issuing general licenses that authorize certain transactions and activities related to PdVSA and its subsidiaries within specified timeframes.

As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of PdVSA subject to U.S. jurisdiction are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in transactions with them. (link)

8:15 p.m. – AP – The Mexican government says it disagrees with a map displayed by the White House that shows Mexico among those countries that support Venezuela’s embattled president, Nicolas Maduro.

National security adviser John Bolton held a press briefing Monday with a map that showed in red the countries supporting Maduro and in blue those nations supporting the Venezuelan congress leader Juan Guaido, who has declared himself Venezuela’s interim president.

Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. told reporters in Washington that her government isn’t taking sides in the crisis.

In Ambassador Martha Barcena’s words: “We are not against the U.S. regarding the position on Venezuela. We are not siding with Maduro. We are not siding with Guaido. We think a third way of a peaceful solution can be found.”  (read more)

Jan 29 2019

Speaker Pelosi Invites President Trump to Deliver State of The Union on February 5th….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 28, 2019 by 

Internal polling and fear of resistance backlash must be significant for the democrats.  President Donald Trump accepted House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s invitation to deliver his State of the Union speech on Feb. 5, a week later than originally scheduled.

(link)

(link)

Jan 29 2019


Sarah Sanders White House Press Briefing – 3:30pm Livestream…

Posted on January 28, 2019 by 

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders delivers a press briefing for Monday January 28th.  Anticipated start time 3:30pm EST

UPDATE: Video Added

WH Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link

Advertisements
Jan 29 2019

Strategic Communications – Mercedes Schlapp Discusses Appropriations Shutdown and White House Position…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 28, 2019 by 

White House Director of Strategic Communications appears on Fox News to discuss the ongoing appropriations discussion, and the White House position on border security to avoid another shutdown in three weeks.