US GDP Stagnant – Q1 2025


Posted originally on May 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

STAGFLATION

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for US GDP in Q1, a 0.3% decline annually.

The decline was mainly due to a sharp 41% uptick in imports as they are subtracted when calculating the final GDP figure. Pharmaceutical goods, medicines and vitamins, computers and parts drove imports in the first quarter.

Government spending decreased significantly as well by 1.4%, with federal expenditures down 5.1%. National defense spending declined by 8%, while non-defense spending decreased by 1%. State and local government spending posted its slowest growth since Q2 of 2022 at 0.8%. Government-driven spending is one of the main components of GDP calculations, but a reduction in government-driven spending in an economy should be viewed positively.

There was a notable rise in business investment at 21.9% as capital is flowing to the US. This is a noteworthy difference, following a 5.6% decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. Nonresidential investment rose 9.8% in the first three months of the year, led by a 22.5% rise in equipment spending.

Consumer spending grew by 1.8%; services led spending with a 2.4% uptick, followed by goods at 0.5%. Personal savings as a percentage of income reached 4%, down from last year’s posting of 5.4%. Disposable personal income reached 2.7%.

ADP released its jobs report for April, anticipating a 62,000 uptick in private sector hirings. This should come as no surprise as thousands were laid off from their public sector positions. However, the figure is below estimates of 115,000 and sharply down from March’s 155,000 figure. “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. “It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.” The Labor Department’s nonfarm payroll report is expected to show a 130,000 uptick, well beneath March’s 228,000 posting.

The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on May 13, a week after the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. March posted a core inflation rate of 2.8% on an annual basis, down from February’s 3.1% figure and the lowest noted since March 2021.

Trump’s tariff policy is not to blame for the current state of the economy. War, inflation, debt, poor government policy, and collapsing confidence predate Trump. The Fed’s policy is not to blame either as their policy is almost irrelevant in the grand scheme.

Socrates warned of a massive global shift in 2015 as the sovereign debt crisis cycle turned and public confidence began to decline. The computer identified 2020.05 (May 2020) as a major Economic Confidence Model (ECM) turning point, and needless to say, 2020 was certainly a turning point in every aspect of the global economy. The stagflation we see now began, globally, post-pandemic. Once confidence breaks, stagflation is guaranteed to follow.

Carney in Favor of Debanking Practices


Posted originally on Apr 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Truckers Canada

Countless truckers gathered for the 2022 Freedom Convoy in Ottawa, forming a gridlock, with a clear agenda and request to repeal all COVID mandates. The protest was peaceful and no one was injured. They fought on behalf of the world at a time when the global population was imprisoned by mandates that were later revealed to be falsified without any scientific backing. Then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau evoked the 1988 Emergencies Act, which is intended for an “urgent and critical situation” that “seriously endangers the lives, health or safety of Canadians.” Deeming a peaceful protest an act of terrorism is an act of free speech oppression is something that fellow World Economic Forum member Mark Carney fully supported. As a reminder, Mark Carney was in complete support of freezing the bank accounts of protestors and ignoring the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

Credit card companies were required to report any activity that could be intended to help the protestors to Canada’s anti-money laundering agency. All vehicles involved had their insurance suspended. Fundraising sites were not allowed to raise money to support the cause. Anyone can be accused of conspiring with the protestors, and their funds will be frozen. Ottawa law enforcement even began to confiscate the pets of those protesting. There is no low that these men will not stoop to in order to firm their authoritarian grip.

trudeautruckerboycott

Carney called the protest an “insurrection” and claimed that the freedom convoy was intended to remove power from the Canadian government. ‘This is sedition. That’s a word I never thought I’d use in Canada. It means “incitement of resistance to or insurrection against lawful authority,’” Carney wrote in an opinion piece, praising Trudeau for declaring a state of emergency. “They are not patriots. This is not about “restoring freedom” but beginning anarchy. This isn’t getting carried away at a rally. It’s not a rush of blood to the head. It’s deliberate and calculated, and because of that, they must know that from now on, there will be consequences for their actions.”

He acknowledged that Canadian law enforcement officers were hesitant to arrest protestors, because they agreed with them. Carney went for the throat by demanding that the banks comply with the federal government to debank the protestors. In his own words:

“Drawing the line means choking off the money that financed this occupation. Again, many Canadians who were amongst the initial donors were likely well meaning. Perhaps they were unaware of the convoy’s stated objectives, or – like many in positions of authority in Ottawa – they didn’t take them seriously. Perhaps all they wanted was a new COVID-19 policy with fewer restrictions.

But by now anyone sending money to the convoy should be in no doubt: You are funding sedition. Foreign funders of an insurrection interfered in our domestic affairs from the start. Canadian authorities should take every step within the law to identify and thoroughly punish them. The involvement of foreign governments and any officials connected to them should be identified, exposed and addressed.”
Trucker White Supremist

The government froze bank accounts and credit cards without a court order or due process. These politicians have no idea how much freezing accounts undermined the confidence in the Canadian banking system. A staggering amount of money began to pour into US banks as money fled Canada. Canadians began withdrawing all of their money from their bank accounts, with most turning to cash, others to gold, and some to Bitcoin. The demand for US dollars more than tripled in the first week of this policy. Trudeau and Carney were unconcerned for their loyalty lies with globalist organizations and not Canada.

Increased banking regulations are discussed in the World Economic Forum’s Agenda 2030, primarily in regard to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which provide a framework for climate initiatives that corporations must follow. Carney is an outspoken climate advocate who has admitted that there is money to be made through the climate agenda. The ruling elite consistently let it slip that the climate change agenda is another fear tactic to grasp money and power. Still, the masses listen to the mainstream media and believe it is a virtuous cause.

This video is essential as it reveals what these politicians have in mind for Canada. In 2013, a reporter asked Justin Trudeau which country he most admired. “There is a level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to turn their economy around on a dime,” Trudeau smiled and stated with seriousness. He went on to say how he admired (i.e., envied) how dictators could simply implement laws on a whim without the consent of the people, and added a nod to climate change policies, as the left does not see that as a problem yet. Carney has the same mentality when it comes to ruling Canada.

Canada had an opportunity to implement change. Instead, the masses voted for the next Trudeau, who is another indoctrinated WEF puppet who will step on the neck of the Canadian economy to achieve these globalist goals.

Carney’s Victory Speech – Relationship with US is OverCarney’s Victory Speech – Relationship with US is OverCarney’s Victory Speech – Relationship with US is Over


Posted originally on Apr 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Carney’s Victory Speech was an acknowledgement that what we are witnessing is truly more than just a hate fest against Trump. Carney is saying the relationship between USA and Canada is over. This is not about tariffs. This is about power. Just as the media has been 92%+ anti-Trump, this is the FAR LEFT and their WOKE Agenda fighting to take over the world because their economics is failing. They refuse to reform and expect to keep borrowing for their endless promises of free gifts. This is by no means simply Carney and Canada. This is the agenda in Europe, and it is why there was a coup against Schwab at the World Economic Forum.

Schwab’s bold statements, which did not hide their Agenda 2030, were to have total control of everything, all because their economic system is collapsing. You cannot borrow forever without any intention of ever paying it off. A three-year-old with a pocket calculator could probably figure out this is not going to end well – i.e., 2032.

2032 Date

Monitoring everything you say on social media is becoming a reality. It used to be that only Santa Claus knew who was naughty or nice. Now it’s the NSA and the rest of the government. They have the right to search your social media to get a visa for a vacation or even for an American to return home.

Schwab WEF Control Everything

Schwab took the position that if you have nothing to hide, then you should not be afraid. He obviously knows nothing about law and how a word can have different interpretations. I went to mail some Roman coins to a client, and the Post Office refused to accept them, saying it was illegal to send money through the mail. I tried to explain that these were ancient coins and were no longer in use as money. I was rejected and told it was still money. I had to go home and redo the paperwork and call the coins antiquities to mail them.

Otis-James

This very issue sparked the American Revolution. Schwab obviously does not know his history. There was a legal case that became the seminal beginning of the American Revolution known as Entick v. Carrington and Three Other King’s Messengers (1765)reported at length in 19 Howell’s State Trials 1029. This case was the start of the American Revolution and was also based on the abuse of the king’s agents. The action, dated November 1762, was for trespassing and interfering with the plaintiff’s dwelling by breaking open his desks and boxes and searching and examining his papers.

Adams-John

After George III became king in 1760, by February 1761, Parliament enacted the Writs of Assistance, that was challenged in court in Boston, Massachusetts. These were writs that empowered the king’s agents to search anything they suspected, like the NSA today, at their discretion. The defending lawyer James Otis (1725-1783) pronounced these writs as “the worst instrument of arbitrary power, the most destructive of English liberty, and the fundamental principles of law, that ever was found in an Englishlaw book.” Otis warned that the king placed discretion in the hands of every agent to act as he desired. Nothing has changed, for our current government can do whatever it desires today, and it is always the citizen’s burden to prove they have any rights whatsoever.

John Adams (1735–1826; 2nd President 1797–1801) was in the audience at that hearing that day, and the four-hour speech of James Otis so moved him that he declared:

“Then and there was the first scene of the first act of opposition to the arbitrary claims of Great Britain. Then and there, the child independence was born.”

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Reliable sources confirm that Carney has aligned with the Globalists of the EU and will attempt to shift Canada. He is purposely making his first foreign trip to the capital cities of the two countries that shaped Canada’s early existence. He will seek to link the Canadaian economy to that of the EU and he has won an election all on the hatred of Donald Trump and this was an intentional ploy instigated by the Neocons and the EU who will collapse from a sovereign debt crisis so they are desperate to creat World War III to retain power and use that as the excuse for the 80 years of a failed socialist agenda which has produced debt that is never paid off and the interest is escalating crowding out all other spending.

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Carney is the ultimate WEF insider who was a leading force in creating the whole Net ZERO climate agenda that has undermined Europe’s economy and that of Canada.

2025 Canada_Election

As I had warned, the computer was showing that this would be the typical split, EAST vs WEST. Eventually, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba will break from the EAST out of pure economic survival. Europe will break up as well, and eventually the same will unfold in the United States. CENTRALIZED dictatorial government has always failed, and what they have engaged in since World War II is socialism, where they still have their nose into personal lives.

Canada GDP Q Growth 1961 2024

A simple comparison of quarterly GDP growth between Canada and the United States demonstrates the utter failure of Canada’s socialistic policies that are indeed akin to those of Europe. Carney ran on the hate fest against Trump because he could not run on the economic track record of managing the economy of Canada under Trudeau.

US GDP 2020 COVID CRASH
US Real GDP Annual Growth 1947 2017

Even the economic growth of Germany, the best within the EU, cannot compare to that of the USA, with less regulation and less socialism. The more any government tries to intervene and control aspects of the economy, the greater its failure, just like Marxism took down communism in China, Russia, and much of South America, especially Cuba.

German GDP 1991 2024

Canadian “Conservative” Candidate, Pierre Poilievre Lost His Own District Seat in Election


Posted originally on CTH on April 29, 2025 | Sundance

After losing to far-left, WEF controlled Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre swore to stand firm as the leader of the conservative party in Canada.  However, as dawn breaks it is revealed that Poilievre lost his own district in the election.

CANADA – Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, was unseated as the parliamentary representative of his Ottawa district in a stunning upset that could put his leadership of the party in question.

Mr. Poilievre was first elected in 2004 as the member of Parliament representing Carleton, a largely rural district bordering parts of the Ottawa River. His long-held Conservative seat was flipped to the Liberal Party.

Bruce Fanjoy, the Liberal candidate who is a well-known community volunteer but was initially considered a long shot, won the race. (more)

Steve Bannon: “If You’re Under 40 You’re Completely SCREWED.”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Apr 28, 2025, at 1:00 pm EST

“It’s A Debt Financed Economy On Federal Spending.” Bannon On The Financial System Screwing The Middle Class


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannon’s War Room on: Apr 28, 2025, at 1:00 pm EST

The New Federal Reserve HQ


Posted Apr 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Eccles West UPDATED.NewFedHQ

The Federal Reserve is nearly done completing its revamp of its Washington, DC, headquarters with a price tag of $2.5 billion. The luxurious facility has come under intense scrutiny as many believe they are borrowing from public funds while already operating in a deficit. Yet, these funds will not be added to national debt calculations.

The Federal Reserve operates on a self-funding mechanism, allegedly, using revenue it generates from interest on government securities and other services such as payment processing. Yet, that interest is generated from public funds. However, the Federal Reserve does not need approval from Congress to finance internal costs as it manages to bypass the federal budget.

The national debt is calculated based on congressionally authorized borrowing. Since no Treasury securities were issued, these costs remain off-budget and outside final calculations. The Federal Reserve operated independently, and as such, it can build a massive new facility equipped with garden terraces, elaborate water sculptures, ceiling skylights, and a private elevator system to transport board members to the newly designed VIP dining suite.

The Federal Reserve is building the Palace of Versailles on the National Mall,” said Andrew T. Levin, professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire, who then urged Congress to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s spending.

There are several special lending programs budgeted through the Fed that will not be included in the national debt. For example, the central bank purchased $500 billion in short-term debt from local and state governments during COVID to push cash into the system. Loans provided through the Main Street Lending Program and the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) are not factored. The Fed maintains some monetary policy tools absent of congressional approval, like discount window loans and overnight reverse repurchase agreements.

Foreign central banks may exchange their treasuries for dollars, which does not pull from public funds. The FedNow Instant Payment system for banks also operates independently, as does the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) that funds around $630 million annually.

The Fed has a $7.4 trillion asset portfolio that is not congressional appropriations. Any losses are considered deferred assets on the central bank’s balance sheet. Now, the Fed differs from other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, which rely more on shareholder capital and government-backed reserves. The 12 regional Federal Reserve banks operate as quasi-private institutions with elected board members, whereas the ECB and BoJ operate as public entities.

The Fed returns around 90% of its net income to the US Treasury despite the current negative press. The new headquarters may be excessive, but it is paramount for the Fed to remain independent from the federal government. Politicians should not drive fiscal policy, as all confidence in the system would be lost. A central bank like Turkey’s, which is completely politically controlled, faces ongoing currency crises and inflation because politicians only want to patch up the short term to ensure they win the next election. Congress should have no say in the Fed’s budget – period.

Germany Seeks Loophole to Increase EU Funding to Ukraine


Posted originally on Apr 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

EU Break up

German Finance Minister Jörg Kukies is urging the European Union to force nations to drastically increase aid to Ukraine under an emergency clause. This emergency clause acts as a loophole that could allow Brussels to surpass defense investment parameters.

Kukies penned a letter on April 24, 2025, to Brussels to state that the “changing environment in Ukraine “requires a significant build-up of defense capabilities with a major impact on its public finances.” This clause would force EU members to spend up to 1.5% of GDP on Ukraine for the next four years. Kukies also would like the European Commission to consider expanding what constitute as “defense” spending, as it “adequately reflects the multiple threats to security in Europe” and considering “in particular dual-use expenditure.”

Incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz has already agreed to spend €1 trillion on Ukraine’s military and infrastructure. Germany is not “leading” Europe as many believe. Rather, it is dragging the entire continent into the grave. This is not about helping Ukraine. This is about creating the next perpetual conflict to justify more government power, more taxation, and the further erosion of individual liberty.

The German government believes it has the funds to shell out. Yet, other EU members have not masked their hesitancy to sink into debt at the expense of Ukraine. When Foreign Policy Chief Neocon Kaja Kallas attempted to bend the bloc’s hand to increase spending, a few southern European nations like Italy and Spain shouted that they did not want to excessively increase their debt. Spanish Finance Minister Carlos Cuerpo touched on a point that caused Brussels to shudder. If Europe believes it is acting as a solid consolatory force, then why not consolidate the debt?

ECM Euro Waves 1 2

Spain proposed a temporary special purpose vehicle (SPV) that would restructure defense debt from national balance sheets by issuing joint European debts through bonds or a similar vehicle. EU and non-EU nations could fund the SPV with a shared repayment obligation. Brussels is still considering the proposal, but rest assured that the top economies in the EU will not want to share the debt obligation. The entire premise of the euro robbed lower GDP nations through a failure to consolidate debt, and nations like Germany refused to forgive their multiplied debt after they adopted the euro because every nation will put itself first. It was a fantasy to believe that a continent could erase its borders and operate as one.

The computer has warned that Europe is at risk of a depression. The EU is collapsing under its own weight. The unelected authoritarian regime in the EU is working to destabilize Europe to fight Russia, and member nations must stand idle and watch their nations spiral into debt to spur on a war that was never their battle to fight.

Carney Wins Canada & the Recession into 2027 Begins


Posted originally on Apr 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Carney Canada to Replace USA

I have never witnessed such outright lies by a candidate as Carney. But hey, it has worked. With the votes in from the East, giving the Liberals 150 seats out of 343 so far, there is no way the Conservatives will get a majority. Our model provided three numbers for the Liberals: 41.25, 45.40, and 59.93. They are at 45.5 currently. His entire campaign has been about hatred of Trump.

Canada EU UK

Carney is a globalist, and he will sign up with the losing team, all for this agenda from the World Economic Forum, of which he has been indoctrinated as a key player. Mark Carney will remain Canada’s prime minister. There is no question about that. Even if the Conservatives took every seat in the West, they would still not have a majority and Carney will form a coalition if he didn’t get 172 seats.

Canada GDP Y 4 28 25

As one reader just wrote in: “To be honest with you, I don’t care anymore, today Canadians have sealed their fate .” Our computer has been showing that Canada’s economy will take a nosedive over the next two years, into 2027. Of course, Carney will blame Trump. He has carried out this agenda from the Neocons to try to isolate Trump. Still, in the process, Carney has undermined trade relations with the United States far beyond Trump, and sources say he will try to shift to the EU, which can’t seem to get out of its own way when it comes to economics. EU consumer consumption is $1.29 out of $10 globally, with 450 million people, compared to 25% for the USA, with only 330 million people. The EU will likely move into a depression, so this won’t work out well for Canada.

Canadian Election


Posted originally on Apr 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

IMMCD M Tech 4 28 25

QUESTION: Marty, Socrates seems to be pointing to a C$ bounce. Does this imply that Carney will lose, or does it mean the bounce will be brief on his nonsense and then turn south?

RE

CAN Rt Combine 2025
CAN LF Combine 2024 1

ANSWER: The only hope that Carney has is a coalition. Comparing the Conservatives to the Liberals in Canada provides an interesting picture. Trudeau was able to be the leader of Canada with 32% of the vote. The computer clearly shows that Carney will beat Justin Trudeau, who was first elected as Prime Minister of Canada on October 19, 2015, and served until his recent resignation in January 2025. He led the Liberal Party to victory in three federal elections during his tenure. In 2015, he had 39.47% of the vote. Then in 2019, he won with 33.1%. Then in 2021, he won with 32.6% while the Conservatives beat him with 33.7%. This is the problem with a Parliamentary system – it allows fragmentation and coalitions.

2025_04_28 Truth_Social Trump on Canadian Election

Trump threw his 2 cents into the ring on Truth Social. That could help Carney. Canada would never become the 51st state. Each province would become a separate state, and that would mean each gets two senators, and they could join the Democrats and kill the US economy with their EQUALITY that has killed Canadian productivity. Canada’s once-thriving economy is now facing severe challenges, from a housing bubble that has pushed debt beyond GDP to a massive brain drain of skilled workers. With real estate prices climbing over 300% in two decades while wages lag far behind, homeownership is slipping further out of reach for most Canadians. At the same time, Canada’s productivity is declining, with the average worker producing 30% less than their U.S. counterpart. With rising discontent, increasing financial strain, and a lack of strong leadership. This has led to the question of how much longer Canada can hold on before a major economic crisis?

In the last election, the Conservatives beat Trudeau with 33.7% vs 32.6%. To get a majority, they need 172 seats. The Liberals will most likely carry the East – Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario. This election could ignite the separation fires burning beneath the surface in the West. Our model warns that it was the completion of a 72-year cycle in the 2021 election for the Liberals, and that should be the low point. They have a fighting chance this time and will beat Trudeau’s numbers.

We still have the risk of war in May. Germany has just instructed Zelensky not to agree to any peace deal with Trump. The key level will become 7225 in the future, going into May.