Posted originally on Apr 21, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Russia tested a new missile last week that has many concerned that this is a new supersonic version of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on April 12th, 2024, that is capable of attacking NATO and the USA undetected. The Russian Ministry of Defence only claimed this was part of “state testing of prospective missile systems, as well as confirmation of the stability of missiles in service.” This has caused chatter down the line when the Neocons are pushing for war.
Sanctions and the removal of Russia from SWIFT have not deterred the Russian economy. A recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Russia’s economy will grow more in the next year than any other advanced economy.
The IMF believes Russia’s economy will grow by 3.2% in 2024, in comparison, the US is expected to grow by 2.7% while Europe’s top economy, Germany, is expected to grow by a mere 0.2%. Cutting off Europe from Russian energy backfired in a major way. Foreign investments have been pouring into Russia from the rest of the world, which is eager to join the rank of “advanced nation.”
Trade between China and Russia has spiked to $240 billion in the last year alone. World leaders have learned absolutely nothing from the previous three years. US President Joe Biden just announced new tariffs against China on steel, aluminum, and shipbuilding supplies that will be potentially raised to 7.5%, triple the current rate for steel and aluminum. “The president understands we must invest in American manufacturing, but we also have to protect those investments and those workers from unfair exports associated with China’s industrial overcapacity,” Lael Brainerd, director of the White House’s National Economic Council. The president of the US and other world leaders simply do not understand how the economy operates. Brainerd believes China is simply overproducing, and these tariffs will cause China to change its policy as it wishes to continue trade with the US, its previous top trading partner.
China does not need the US to excel at trade. China’s adopted capitalistic style of business is causing nations to line up to sell to China in the same manner that they once did to the US. Now, Americans are strapped for cash, and its consumer population is declining. Biden just made it less appealed for nations like China to sell to the US. Germany is failing to grow because it continued its mercantile system of business where it feels it must increase manufacturing. German manufacturing may be of higher quality than that of China but China’s middle class is growing, and with it, so are the number of consumers amid a population of nearly 1.4 billion people.
Russia does not need the US, Canada, or Europe for trade either, as they have a precious natural resource that is in higher demand than supply. The world needs energy and fossil fuels and cannot operate without them. As hard as the climate change zealots try, they cannot eliminate the world’s dependence on fossil fuels. Instead, the West is imposing regulations and taxing its people in an effort to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, but the demand is not there, and the infrastructure does not exist. There is no reliable alternative to fossil fuels on a wide scale.
Russia does not need to adhere to the G7 nation’s price capping regulations. Russia has effectively been selling oil to nations like India who then turn around and sell it to the West at a premium. Pettiness is poor business, and simply attempting to ostracize a necessary trade partner from the global market has backfired in a major way. Now nations like those under BRICS are trading freely without Western interference and it is becoming overtly apparent that sanctions do not work.
Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Can central banks not even manipulate the markets?
FS
ANSWER: No. Here is the track record of the central banks when they created the Group of 5 (now G20) in 1985. I warned them they would create a crash within two years. But look at what happened. The fools assumed the central banks could manipulate the dollar. When the Plaza Accord took place, the dollar had already peaked. Because the fools thought the decline was all because of the central banks, when the dollar had fallen too far, they held the Louvre Accord and came out saying the dollar had fallen far enough. When the dollar moved low again, the 1987 Crash too place BECAUSE the central banks were perceived to have no control.
I was named FOREX Person of the year for calling the collapse of the Swiss/Euro Peg. I even met with the Swiss central bank and warned them, They said they would be able to hold the peg and and said now way. I have met with more central banks than probably anyone – ever. I have been in the room when the red phone was ringing between the G5 on manipulating currencies. I need not engage in conspiracy theories. We have first-hand experience.
Even go back to the US Civil War. The dollar was collapsing, and the price of gold soared regarding greenbacks. Lincoln did everything. He shut down gold trading on the New York Stock Exchange. They then traded on the curb and created the Gold Room. Nothing worked.
Here is the New York Times from November 18th, 1864. They observed the “folly of attempting to regulate the price [of gold] or any other article of traffic by forcible interference.” Anyone who claims that gold was suppressed because of manipulation made that up because they do not understand that gold DOES NOT rise linked to inflation. Gold soars when there is a collapse in confidence in government and in times of war, just as it did during the Civil War.
Gold declined for 19 years while inflation rose and the National Debt exploded. Gold has rallied only when the CONFIDENCE in government has declined as we are seeing today. People are getting very tense. In Texas, a guy drove his 18-wheeler into a Texas Public Safety office after being denied a Commercial Drivers License.
CONFIDENCE has collapsed by about 50% since 1980. The movie coming out tomorrow on April 12th is the Civil War. Such a movie 20 years ago would have been unheard of.
Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: I just had to say thank you. I kept a copy of your private post What Are the Markets Telling Us? from FEBRUARY 24, 2024. Your model called for a high in January, the false move to retest support in February, and a resumption of the trend into April. You have taught me so much about how markets move. Only a fool buys and holds, expecting every month to be higher.
Keep up the great reports. This is when many say we need you the most.
Jeb
That Post 2/24/24 Was:
The UK has a slightly different pattern from continental Europe. Germany shows a Panic Cycle in June. But the targets are shaping up as May and July. Blending in gold, January was high, and Feb has retested support, yet softly. Volatility should rise now going into March, and April 19/20th is the ECM turning point of the Ukraine/Russia War, followed by the main ECM target of May 7th. Here, too, we see rising volatility in gold from May into August, with a Panic Cycle in September and the peak in volatility in November probably related to the 2024 election.
ANSWER: Thank you. Everything moves in a cycle. Many of the great discoveries come only from observing how markets trade. John Law traded on the exchange in Amsterdam and came up with the theory of Supply and demand.
Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the floor in Amsterdam, representing the English Crown. He saw how Henry VIII’s debasement of money caused people to hoard the older money, which actually shrank the money supply, forcing the state to debase even more. He came up with the idea that bad money drives good money out of circulation.
I invented capital flow analysis because, in the ’80s, I, too, observed how capital was rushing around the world, driving markets up and down. If you do not open your eyes, you will remain nothing more than the fool on the hill.
Only a fool refuses to learn about the markets. If you cannot grasp this basic fundamental principle, forget investment; you are just a fool who will lose everything. There are always false moves. That is how the market is propelled by moving in the opposite direction, creating bull and bear traps. Every rally in gold for 19 years was touted as this time will be different. When they failed, they blamed the bankers. NOBODY but NOBODY can manipulate any market, altering its trend. They can push the market around within the scope of support and resistance. But they cannot change the trend no matter what.
All the bankers and hedge funds were on the same trade with Russia. I was invited down to the dinner they put on to buy influence in the IMF at the National Gallery. I told them the market would crash and refused to join. When it crashed, they blamed me rather than admit they were all wrong. If they were so powerful, why do they always blow themselves up with Russia, mortgage-backed securities, you name it?
No market can be manipulated against its inherent trend. Anyone who claims gold was suppressed because it was manipulated simply was an excuse because their analysis was wrong. That is total BS to claim any market can be manipulated, converting a bull to a bear market. Everything is arbitraged on a global scale.
The majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is what creates the crash. They are all long, try to get out, and there is no bid. Look at the Slinky moving down the steps. The opposite side gains the majority of power and then pulls the other side down, and so on. This is how the markets move. It is always a battle between bulls and bears, which is why the markets can never go in one direction. The same is true about everything, including climate change. The climate has always changed the same as markets have always risen and fallen, only to rise again. Marxism did not understand this fundamental, and it, like some gold bugs, tried to make the economy rise and never fall back into recession.
The French physicist Jean Foucault discovered what is known as the Foucault Pendulum. He proved that the earth rotated on its axis. The pendulum was constantly moving back and forth like markets by its own inertia. In the course of 24 hours, the floor moved in a circle. Since you are standing next to this pendulum at the Houston Museum of Natural Science, the illusion is that it moves in a circle when you and the floor are fixed on Earth.
NOT EVERYTHING IS WHAT IT SEEMS – ONLY A FOOL REFUSES TO SEE
Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) issued a report accusing India and Pakistan of interfering in Canada’s federal elections in 2019 and 2021. India has called the claims “baseless,” but the CSIS said it will be on the hunt for meddling during the upcoming election.
“It is not Government of India’s policy to interfere in democratic processes of other countries. In fact, quite on the reverse, it is Canada which has been interfering in our internal affairs. We have been raising this issue regularly with them. We continue to call on Canada to take effective measures to address our core concerns,” stated India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.
Canada’s next election is not until October 2025, but polls show that Canadians are eager for a change in leadership. A poll from January conducted by Nanos Research found that 46% of Canadians would like to cast their vote in 2024. The Canada Elections Act of 2007 changed the timeline for general elections, which are to be held the third Monday of October every four years. Yet, an election could be held earlier, according to Election Canada, “as long as it is no later than five years after the previous election.”
People are simply losing confidence in their government leaders. Canadians are not happy with their current conditions and want Trudeau out. As is common, his administration now must blame foreign interference for his loss in popularity.
The CSIS was granted extended powers by the Liberal government in 2015 under Bill C-51, the Anti-Terrorism Act. The CSIS is now able to actively interfere with potential terrorist activities, such as censoring websites, blocking the freedom of movement, or de-banking individuals as they did to the truckers during the Trucker Convoy.
“We have known for many, many years that many different countries take an interest in engaging in Canadian institutions and sometimes influencing, sometimes interfering, in the work of Canadian institutions,” Trudeau said. “I can assure people that we will continue to do everything necessary to prevent interference from whatever country it comes from.”
Threat-reduction matters could include parking a cop car outside of a potential terrorists home; government intimidation. They believe Sikh Canadians are being forced to vote in alignment with Indian policies, therefore, the CSIS will be watching them closely as the next election approaches.
There is no concrete evidence that an outside source interfered in Canada’s elections but that is not preventing the government from attacking foreign nations and alerting the public that they will be taking preventative measures to ensure the public votes accordingly.
Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The US Treasury stopped issuing paper savings bonds in January 2012, switching to online platforms. There is a slight exception where a paper Series I may be purchased with proceeds from a federal income tax refund, but they are extremely rare. What they failed to explain is that US banks are NOT required to cash in these bonds.
A friend’s daughter recently ran into an issue on her 30th birthday when she attempted to cash in a number of bonds that had finally matured. Her bank simply told her, “No. We will not cash them.” She called customer service, and the bank explained that they had no legal obligation to cash government bonds.
She was told She was told to mail in the paper bonds to with a completed FS Form 1522 to the Treasury directly along with copies of her personal government-issued identifications. Obviously, this does not seem secure as mail is lost all the time regardless of tracking numbers.
There are currently no options to cash paper savings bonds online. The government has made it deliberately difficult to cash in these bonds. She attempted a loophole where you previously were able to redeem bonds at larger institutions if they were worth under $1,000, but still, she her request was declined.
According to Treasury Direct, “Banks vary in how much they will cash at one time – or if they cash savings bonds at all.” We have seen numerous banks fail and begin to consolidate. Regional banks are struggling with liquidity and larger institutions simply do not want to hand out cash if they’re not required to do so.
Naturally my friend wished those 30-year bonds were invested in equities or anything other than bonds. She would have made far more than the government bonds could ever provide, and now it will be a difficult task to snail mail personal information to the Treasury and await a response. Yet another strike against purchasing government debt.
Germany was once a safe nation.Violent crime has reached a 15-year high, with homicides, knife assaults, and rapes drastically increasing. Crime rose by 5.5% last year alone, with 6.6 million incidences reported. Other nations like the UK, US, Canada, France, Sweden, Finland, and everywhere else that permitted, if not encouraged, open border policies have also seen an uptick in crime but no one wants to point out the obvious.
Migrants were responsible for around 40% of violent crimes in Germany last year, but the non-German national population only composes 15% of the population. Angela Merkel sold off Germany in 2015 when she urged all refugees to come to Europe to seek a better life. The migrants never stopped showing up. Germany handled over 350,000 asylum applications in 2023, and that only accounts for those who went through the judicial process.
The left refuses to hold migrants responsible for crimes and will not acknowledge that different cultures simply do not integrate well into Western societies. Lamya Kaddor, a Green Party MP, said that migrants are simply over-represented in crime statistics. “The crime rate is higher among socio-economically disadvantaged groups, which very often include foreign nationals,” she stated. Politicians like Kaddor do not care about the safety of their constituents and will never back away from open border policies.
The migrant crisis is deliberate and apparent in all Build Back Better nations. These people are living off of the government, are unvetted, and have no allegiance to their new homebase. Southern European nations are in an even worse state as boatloads of new migrants wash upon their shores daily. Merkel humiliated Greece during the bail-out process, and now the European Union as a whole has its foot on the necks of all nations under its control. No one voted to allow these migrants into their hometowns. It is hard to say that Europeans live in a democracy as they are under the control of the European Union, which is following orders from the World Economic Forum these globalists do not merely want a one-European government but a one-world government where the few rule the masses.
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